19-30, More Thoughts
by Jeff Sullivan on May 30, 2010 6:33 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps
- A lot of people are mad at Wakamatsu for using Jesus Colome and then Kanekoa Texeira in relief, guys who allowed the Angels back into the game. When Colome entered, it was 7-2 in the fifth. When Texeira departed, it was 7-4 in the sixth, with the bases loaded. The Angels didn't have a pulse, but then the bullpen came in and performed CPR.
Let's be reasonable, though. No, Colome isn't very good. No, Texeira isn't much better, if he's better at all. But when Colome came into the game, it was the fifth inning, our win expectancy was 86%, and the leverage was fairly low. And when Texeira came into the game, it was the sixth inning, our win expectancy was 90%, and the leverage was even lower. Those are the times that you use the soft underbelly of the bullpen. Yeah, Colome and Texeira were bad, but when things got really intense, Wak went to Shawn Kelley. That was the right call. Maybe Colome was left in a little too long, and maybe the same goes for Texeira, but you can't fault Wak for using them, because it doesn't make sense. For one thing, we don't really have a shutdown reliever. And for another, even if we did, he can't pitch every game whenever we have a lead.
Middle relievers are unreliable, and the sad truth about any game started by Ian Snell is that you'll probably have to go to your middle relief. Today, the M's got burned. It happens. I just can't see the sense in blaming Wak. You can blame the team for having Colome and Texeira on the roster in the first place if you want, I suppose, but it's not like we have a ton of superior options for the back of the bullpen.
Jesus Colome and Kanekoa Texeira are mediocre. Mediocre relievers sometimes pitch poorly. You should still expect them to be able to handle a 7-2 lead.
- Ian Snell now has 22 strikeouts and 18 walks on the season - 16 and 16 as a starter. Ian Snell might be in a better place psychologically now that he's a Mariner, but what we've learned from all this is that being depressed isn't what made him struggle. What made him struggle was that he stopped doing whatever it was he did to succeed. Seattle, as an organization, gambled that a change of scenery would be enough for Snell to re-discover his younger self, but as is so often the case, the change of scenery didn't work out, as he remains an unwatchable pile of crap.
I don't mean to be rude. Ian Snell, I'm sure, is a good person with a lovely heart. But I write about these guys as players since I can't know them as people, and as a player, Ian Snell sucks. I look at him and I can't actually envision a good pitcher. It's like how I look at Griffey and can't actually envision a home run. Snell has talent in there somewhere - he wouldn't be here if he didn't - but it's either buried, in pieces, or dormant, and the M's haven't been able to bring it out. I guess he could always have an epiphany, but with Snell staying bad and Jack Wilson staying hurt, it's looking like we can call that trade a big ol' bust.
- I was in Canada last December, and as part of my trip, I went to Ottawa to see my favorite hockey team take on the Montreal Canadiens. At one point, an Ottawa player and a Montreal player were chasing the same loose puck, but the puck hit a ref who was standing in the way, took a lucky bounce, and gave the Montreal player a gift breakaway, which he converted into a goal. The goal was a backbreaker, and Ottawa went on to lose.
Josh Wilson's infield single wasn't quite the same thing. The win expectancy swing between Wilson's grounding out and Wilson reaching base when his hit struck an umpire was only 4%. Little. But then Ichiro followed with a run-scoring double, and all of a sudden, an inning that should've been over saw the M's cut the Angels' lead in half. The win expectancy swing of the accident was only 4%, but the swing of the whole series of events was twice as large, and it could've been larger had Mike Brumley not gotten Wilson thrown out at home.
That's one of those things that, had the Mariners won, would've left a really bitter taste in the Angels' and the Angels fans' mouths. It's a complete accident, and it almost never happens, but that goes beyond an umpire blowing a call. That's an umpire directly turning an out into a baserunner. They would've had every reason to be pissed.
I guess they could still be pissed. That'd be weird.
- Oh, Brumley. After Wilson's ump-aided single, the M's had two on and two out when Ichiro lined a ball to center. Eliezer Alfonzo scored with ease, but then Brumley decided to wave Wilson around all the way from first, and he was thrown out by ten feet. I really do feel bad for pointing out Mike Brumley's poor decisions so often, but I wouldn't have to do it if he didn't make so many poor decisions. I know it's a thankless job. That doesn't mean you should try to make things happen on your own. The M's have been one of the worst baserunning teams in baseball so far this year, and Brumley's a big reason why.
- Another reason why: knuckleheaded clumsiness. Eliezer Alfonzo tried to go first-to-third on a Josh Wilson single in the fifth. Eliezer Alfonzo is a catcher, and unlike Rob Johnson, he runs like one. I don't know if that was Alfonzo's decision or Brumley's, but even though Alfonzo nearly made it in safely, why risk it? Why risk it in a 7-2 game with Ichiro stepping to the plate? Alfonzo's awkward little rolling bellyflop didn't seem big at the time, since the M's were up five and had a win expectancy of 93%, but it sure looms large now.
I get why we've seen aggressive baserunning from guys like Figgins and Gutierrez. I don't get why we've seen aggressive baserunning from guys like Alfonzo and Kotchman. Aggression, like patience at the plate, isn't good on its own. You have to pick your spots. If you don't pick your spots, you look dumb.
- Eliezer Alfonzo showcased his entire skillset this afternoon.
1) He stood up kind of awkwardly and still threw out a baserunner
2) He handed the Angels a run by sticking his glove too far forward on a Hideki Matsui swing attempt with the bases loaded
3) He got thrown out trying to take an extra base
4) He struck out flailing at breaking balls out of the zone
5) He grounded into a double play on a ball out of the zone
6) He hit two singles on balls out of the zone
7) He homered on a ball in the zone
That's it. That's Eliezer Alfonzo. Sometimes a scout can get a bad read on a guy when he's only around for one game and the player only plays nine innings, because nine innings usually aren't enough for a player to show who he is. Eliezer Alfonzo showed who he is. Eliezer Alfonzo seized a rare playing opportunity by putting his foot down and declaring 'This is me.'
Alfonzo definitely started the game better than he finished it, given the whole interference and double play and all. But we don't expect Alfonzo to be much. He's our fourth-string catcher. And rather than criticize, I think we should celebrate that our fourth-string catcher took a fastball deep over the left field bullpen. Alfonzo really only has one skill at the plate, but when he makes good contact, he's a powerful guy. That home run was demolished. He hit it harder than Jose Lopez thinks is allowed.
- When Kanekoa Texeira came out in the sixth, there had been 232 pitches thrown in the game. 121 of them went for strikes. That's 52%. The best rate for any individual pitcher was Ian Snell's 55%. Kevin Jepsen, Fernando Rodney, and David Aardsma would go on to have trouble throwing strikes, too. Only Jason Bulger and Shawn Kelley were able to speed things up a little bit. On the year, Kelley has thrown 69% of his pitches for strikes. He is the only guy down there you can count on to put the ball in the zone. It's a shame that he seems to allow batters to make solid contact, because he is just that close to being the most likable reliever imaginable.
- Jose Lopez drew two walks. I checked. This is not the first time that's ever happened. 30% of the way into the season, he is now 18% of the way towards achieving his ambitious goal. I could joke about that, but instead I'll be nice and point out that Lopez's current walk rate is actually the highest of his career.
- Joe Saunders is awful. Awful awful awful. He really is their Ian Snell, only instead of coming over in a trade, he's just been with the Angels the whole time and gotten worse every year. Saunders used to punch some people out, throw enough strikes, and put the ball on the ground. Now he keeps fewer balls on the ground, and he doesn't strike anyone out because he never throws a pitch in the zone, ever. He's not even hurt. His stuff is the same as it's always been. He's just terrible. Saunders, Scott Kazmir, 2009 hero Matt Palmer - these guys suck.
- But one guy who doesn't suck? Howie Kendrick. I never think of Howie Kendrick as being a powerful guy. Given that he came in with just 24 big league homers to his name, I've always just assumed that he was kind of like Jose Lopez, in that his dingers barely clear the yard. Wrong. Of Kendrick's ten homers last year, the shortest went 402 feet. Eight of his 24 homers have flown at least 420, and he's topped out at 447. He's stronger than he seems, and he proved it today by taking Shawn Kelley deep to straightaway center and then, in the ninth, taking an inside fastball from Aardsma - an inside fastball off the plate - deep the other way to right. The game-winning blast only made it into the first row, but it made it into the first row above a tall wall, 370 feet from the plate, the other way, on an inside fastball.
It was a warm day. The wind was blowing out a little to right field. But that wasn't a bad pitch from David Aardsma. That was an impressive home run by Howie Kendrick. I didn't know that he had that in him.
- The pitch that Aardsma threw to Juan Rivera that wound up on the warning track was not a good pitch. That was an inside fastball in Rivera's wheelhouse, and Aardsma's lucky the game didn't end right there.
- If David Aardsma snares Mike Napoli's comebacker, rather than let it slip out of his glove, it might end up a game-ending double play.
"If" and "might"
To me, those two words perfectly sum up the Mariner’s 2010 season so far.
DaeguDave - May 30, 2010
When the manager makes good moves, or understandable moves, it's so much easier to take a loss.
It’s when he leaves advantages ( no matter how small) sitting on the bench that it drives me bonkers. Todays game was an easier loss to accept than yesterday, if that makes any sense.
Kermit. - May 30, 2010
I'm sure we could find something he did wrong if we dig deep enough!
Jeff Sullivan - May 30, 2010
I can't believe we didn't pinch-hit for Alfonzo with two on in the ninth!
Jeff Sullivan - May 30, 2010
Got me there Sullivan!
Outrage! Fire the manager! Arrgh!
Kermit. - May 30, 2010
This is my squinty eyed pirate face arrgh, just to clarify.
It took you less than a minute to dig deeper. Go figure.
Kermit. - May 30, 2010
I think "suck" alone sums it up just fine.
flashbeak - May 30, 2010
"He hit it harder than Jose Lopez thinks is allowed."
There is always a jewel to be found in your recaps. Thanks for pointing this one out.
TrustBaseball - May 30, 2010
I have to say that I don't think I've seen a Mariner belt a homerun like that since Branyan was still in the lineup.
Fin - May 30, 2010
agreed. First crushed ball I've seen off an M's bat all season.
Gekko Mojo - May 31, 2010
We need to sign that 18-year-old Japanese girl for middle relief.
Like she’d really be any worse than Colome.
craig3410 - May 30, 2010
Rob wouldn;t be able to catch a knuckleball
IlliniM - May 30, 2010
Oh, now thats something I'd like to see.
OceanBird - May 30, 2010
What's the record for passed balls in a game?
HARRYP09 - May 30, 2010
12
by Alex Gardner in 1884. More recently Jerry Goff had 6 on May 12, 1996 with the Astros. Surprising that he was also in the Seattle farm system at one point. Just giving Rob something to shoot for.
Justin Pieper - May 31, 2010
In fairness, what we gave up in that trade hasn't looked great either.
Clement’s been terrible, Cedeno’s a bench player and not as especially good one, Lorin’s been hurt, and Pribanic’s been bad. Only Adcock’s shown any ability and I’m not ready to say that loss is haunting me. It’s too early to declare us the loser, but there are definitely some bust elements on both sides.
DAMellen - May 30, 2010
Garbage in, Garbage out.
Coug1990 - May 31, 2010
Nothing personal, Mariners.
But I wish I could rip your face off, tan it like a bad slave, roll it up like a fruit roll-up and then sodomize you with your own tanned, rolled-up visage.
But out of love.
John Morgan - May 30, 2010
The Mariners have turned losing into an artform.
It kinda looks like that relief pitchers painting in the commercials.
FisteeFisterer - May 30, 2010
Anyone else notice that the Mariners have posted 8.5 WAR this season?
I’m sure you have. However, the 8.5 WAR puts the team at 8.5 + .292(49) = 23 wins. We’ve lost about 4 wins to luck this year. How fucking terrible.
perfectstrat - May 31, 2010
I hadn't noticed that, but I have noticed our 0-6 record in extra-inning games.
thehemogoblin - May 31, 2010
Don't blame it all on luck. Stupid baserunning mistakes, poor bullpen management, etc., are not included in WAR.
At least I don’t think they are. We deserve a shitload of these losses.
CapSea - May 31, 2010
bad baserunning, defensive lapses, shoddy bullpen talent and slow bat speed have conspired against us far more than luck has.
Gekko Mojo - May 31, 2010
Mike Brumley has one job.
Mike Brumley is a more deserved scapegoat than Alan Cockrell. Mike Brumley should have no job.
CapSea - May 31, 2010
School crossing guard??
hairofthedawg - May 31, 2010
Would you trust him to get your kids across the street safely?
C’mon, kid! You can make it! You can m…
…
We’ll get ’em next time.
JLProck - May 31, 2010
I did it myself when I was a kid...
long, long ago.
hairofthedawg - May 31, 2010
I had no issues with Colome being used per se
more so that Colome is our worst guy in the pen. I get that he throws 94-96 with movement but he has no idea where it is going. It kinda sucked watching him come in and walk the world and wonder why they didn’t just leave Snell in to do the same.
bluemax - May 31, 2010
I have long thought that a bullpen should be set up with pitchers you use when you are down
and pitchers you use when a game is tied or when you’re ahead. In other words, there are pitchers you don’t want to see anywhere near a close game and there are pitchers you save for games with a lead.
Currently, I have the two column like this.
RP’s used when behind RP’s used when tied or ahead
-—————————————————-—————————————————————-Colome
Texeira
Rowland-Smith
League
Kelley
Aardsma
Coug1990 - May 31, 2010
You wouldn't have Kelley in the tied or ahead column?
IlliniM - May 31, 2010
Kelly probably does belong in the other column, but
It makes for a funnier read by putting all of them in the left column and he did give up a run yesterday.
Coug1990 - May 31, 2010
Shannon discusses the bullpen
here
msb - May 31, 2010
I hate our bullpen
I expect it to fail 100% of the time.
Scrupio - May 31, 2010
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