Seattle: 24-39
Saint Louis: 34-29
| MARINERS | Δ Ms | CARDINALS | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-59.7 (28th) | -1.8 | 15.3 (8th) | St. Louis |
| FIELDING (UZR) | 7.4 (11th) | 0.0 | 4.7 (13th) | Seattle |
| ROTATION (tRA) |
0.8 (19th) | 4.5 | 27.3 (2nd) | St. Louis |
| BULLPEN (tRA) |
-9.4 (22nd) | -1.9 | 2.3 (14th) | St. Louis |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-60.9 (26th) | 0.8 | 49.6 (6th) | SAINT LOUIS |
One benefit to having the World Cup played close to zulu time and the Mariners playing away from the west coast is nearly non-stop sporting action on TV. One downside is wow, 4am is early. I don't know where this introduction was originally going in my head which is the sort of thing that happens when you get approximately 37 seconds of sleep in the last rainbow candy pencil eyeball.
I was thinking about the game of baseball this morning. Have you ever pondered how baseball might have been radically different if the early standards adopted had been even slightly different? Think of the base paths. Why 90 feet? It's an odd figure to have settled on, but considering how close plays at first base (and others) are, it seems almost divine.
If it were 100 feet between bases, players like Ichiro would be decimated because the infield hits would drop almost entirely away, stretching out doubles would be that much tougher and the stolen base would become drastically more difficult. If it were 80 feet, just the opposite would happen and baseball would be filled with many more Ichiro-type players. Don't even get me started on 60'6.
Oh right, a baseball series. Well, the Cardinals are really good. Colby Rasmus leads the team in wOBA which is notable because:
A) His team also employs Albert Pujols.
B) Colby Rasmus plays center field.
C) Colby Rasmus is only 23 years old.
Also, Jaime Garcia is really good and just 23. So is Adam Wainwright. The good part, I mean. Not the 23 years old part. Jeff Suppan also isn't 23 and boy is he really really not good. Except Dave Duncan will probably make him good. I bet Jeff Suppan ends up a Met sometime in the next two seasons.
The 2010 Mariners have a park adjusted team wOBA of .304. Last year with the Mariners, Jack Hannahan had a park adjusted wOBA of .307. I really wish our team would hit. I know they can, at least more than they have been. I'm not asking for a lot here, just some consistent semblance of an offensive threat to keep my interest up.
Seven US states* have the Cardinal as their official state bird. Missouri is not one of them. The seven states that do form one connected landmass extending basically straight east from Missouri to the ocean. Missouri's state bird however is the blue bird.
*Seven US states? Seven United States states? That reads weird, but omitting the "US" part reads weird to me as well. I am in a weirdly self-reflective writing mood.
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1 recs | 73 comments
Ah, but longer or shorter baselines would make the infield bigger or smaller
I don’t know if that would completely cancel out the effect on players like Ichiro, but it would be a mitigating factor.
Jeff Sullivan - June 14, 2010
Plus, bunt hits and all that.
An interesting thought nonetheless. I wonder how players decided on that distance.
jwiscarson - June 14, 2010
I feel like that would still be overcome by the extra running time needed.
I did a cursory glance for a 100’ diamond when it came to stolen bases. First base would be about seven feet further away from the pitcher’s mound so the runner could take about an additional two feet of lead off. The throw from catcher to second base would now be about 14 feet longer, granting the runner the equivalent of around four feet of sprinting distance.
Overall, the runner gains six feet of advantage, but has to traverse an extra ten feet. Not exactly the same thing, but ultimately I think it’s advantageous to the defense the bigger the base paths because running is slower than throwing.
Matthew - June 14, 2010
Fielders playing deeper would have a harder time getting to his swinging bunt singles
also the extra distance between bases may mean bigger holes between fielders. Does the mound move back as well in this scenario?
Bearskin Rugburn - June 14, 2010
I assume he would have to to remain in the middle of the diamond.
Slow Country - June 14, 2010
The mound isn't in the middle of the diamond.
Matthew - June 14, 2010
Well, not directly
but isn’t the pitchers mound supposed to be a certain distance from the end of the infield at the foul line? If so it would still have to be moved back. Unless the bases were moved back but the infield stayed the same size.
Slow Country - June 14, 2010
The one that always makes me go hmmmm
is the height of the pitcher’s mound. Or is it pitchers’ mound? Anyway. Why was it originally 15 inches? Why is it now 10 and not, say, 8? 12? I know these things probably aren’t arbitrary, but I’d love to know where that came from.
pdb - June 14, 2010
Colby Rasmus seems to sit a lot versus lefties.
I wonder how many at-bats he’ll get this series, since none of the lefties are Cliff Lee, that could make a difference… wow, I just realized four of our rotation is lefties for the time being.
Kenneth Arthur - June 14, 2010
He's been day to day lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him sit at least once
Randy Winn is next on the depth chart and he plays center like a 50 year old
Poochie - June 14, 2010
I did not know that Winn was no longer a Yankee until this moment. Amazing.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
LaRussa often favors useless veterans over mildly interesting youngsters
Poochie - June 14, 2010
Also I would particularly want us to destroy Jeff Suppan on Tuesday
Poochie - June 14, 2010
Thus upholding his reputation as a winner.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
Oh absolutely
Poochie - June 14, 2010
Sounds familiar.
JLProck - June 14, 2010
Interesting that Wainwright and Garcia's four seamers are as good or better at generating ground balls
as they sinkers. Sample size?
Bearskin Rugburn - June 14, 2010
You're misinterpreting the charts. Pitch grades are relative, not absolute.
Fastballs are compared against only other fastballs, not all pitches. An 80 rating for ground balls on a four-seamer just means it’s at the top of the four-seamer class for ground balls. You can’t compare it to a 75 rating for ground balls on a sinker and say the four-seamer is better at generating ground balls.
Matthew - June 14, 2010
Oooooh
got it
Bearskin Rugburn - June 14, 2010
I'm unsure I never got around to looking it up, but
I’ve always wondered if the bases were always 90 feet away from one another (and the space between home and the pitcher’s mound, etc.), or if it’s something that evolved over time in the mid-late 1800s.
We’re going to get obliterated this series.
katal - June 14, 2010
Maybe not.
Player only meeting!
Bearskin Rugburn - June 14, 2010
I have unscientifically found those to only be effective in winning a game immediately after the meeting takes place.
The players would have to have one around 2:00 today (pacific time) if they’re to have a prayer tonight.
katal - June 14, 2010
It really is amazing how all sports decided upon their standards.
But baseball is especially unique. There is no standard in place for outfield dimensions. The game would drastically be different with small changes, as you have mentioned. It’s crazy baseball settled on these standards so long ago and the only thing to have been altered is the mound height (as far as I know).
Wilder. - June 14, 2010
This includes 9 innings with 3 outs per inning.
No clock like most other major sports. And why 9 innings, not 8 or 10?
Wilder. - June 14, 2010
Before this standard, the winning team was the first to score 21 "aces" (runs.)
I’m guessing that, as defenses evolved, getting 21 runs was taking too long, so teams settled on 9 innings—what might have been the amount of innings a very good offense would need to score 21.
Jesus Jones - June 14, 2010
If the Mariners had to score 21 runs to win a game, the game would take 5 days to finish and it would be called Cricket.
And we’d have rally cucumber sandwiches.
PDXTai - June 14, 2010
Matthew:
Were Duncan to leave the Cardinals, how large of a contract would he be worth as a free agent, would you say?
katal - June 14, 2010
I would not say because I have no idea.
It was merely a joke about his reputation. I have no knowledge on if Duncan actually has a repeatable skill is harnessing more talent from pitchers.
Matthew - June 14, 2010
On the other hand, if he is as good as his reputation
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he would be among the more valuable assets in baseball.
Jeff Sullivan - June 14, 2010
He would also easily cover his own salary if you considered the savings in acquiring pitchers.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
If he is as good as his reputation, then he basically makes up for the Cardinals having no minor league system
Poochie - June 14, 2010
This is true in a lot of places too.
One well heeded number cruncher in the front office could save the team millions a year in value.
Matthew - June 14, 2010
Absolutely.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
I wonder if Duncan will get to a point in his career where he pushes to acquire broken pitchers just to see if he can do it.
I would love to see Willis and Kazmir in this experiment.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
I would think Suppan would count as a "broken pitcher"
He hasn’t had a tERA below 5.70 since 2007.
vivaelpujols - June 14, 2010
I suppose that's true, although he's just never been good in the first place. He had a few seasons where he toyed with being ok.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
I'm calling a sweep
Poochie - June 14, 2010
Wanna bet?
Robert - June 14, 2010
Better wait till he says which team is getting swept.
the other side - June 14, 2010
Pretty good chance neither one sweeps
Bearskin Rugburn - June 14, 2010
Is it Cliff against Suppan?
If so that’s the only game we have a real chance in.
the other side - June 14, 2010
There are times that I ask myself if writing series previews is worth it.
Times like this!
Matthew - June 14, 2010
I honestly thought this was a different thread and didn't feel like looking it up.
I guess I should either care more or less. I did like the preview by the way.
the other side - June 14, 2010
You thought this was a different thread?
A different thread discussing the Mariners playing the Cardinals?
Jeff Sullivan - June 14, 2010
Amazingly, he still found the jet engine despite his best efforts.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
Yeah thought it was the OT.
I read the preview and immediately forgot the pitching matchups because there were none I cared about.
the other side - June 14, 2010
At least this comment wasn't made in the series Preview thread in which you talk about those things.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
Holy
Shit
Jeff Sullivan - June 14, 2010
Yes, unless they shuffle him back to the bullpen
and give Olsen the spot start.
Bearskin Rugburn - June 14, 2010
I always call a sweep
Poochie - June 14, 2010
I noticed you switched to UZR for fielding on the previews
I read the explanation for the (?) you used early on and I don’t remember the details now but I do remember it was because using UZR so early in the season is pretty much useless since UZR needs a large sample. Just curious if there was any reasoning behind when to make that switch? Is there a rule where you need “X” number of games for UZR to actually mean something?
shuswapslugger - June 14, 2010
UZR was a little funky early on and wasn't available for the first week
so he stayed with +/- and Total Zone (right?) until UZR settled a little bit. For a player UZR takes about 2 1/2 – 3 season to normalize and for a team it’s somewhere around 2 1/2 – 3 season divided by the number of fielders.
Jackle Mackle - June 14, 2010
Oh. It wasn't TZ, it was Defensive Runs Saved.
And the final number was calculated by DRS + (+/-) / 2
Jackle Mackle - June 14, 2010
Jeff, I know you ssaid not to get you started on the 60 feet 6 inches.
But I’m too curious, so could you please?
scottg02 - June 14, 2010
I did not write this post.
Matthew wrote this post.
It’s right there, at the top.
Jeff Sullivan - June 14, 2010
You're different people?
Seriously? You just blew my mind.
Snuffleupagus - June 14, 2010
I was trying not to come off as an idiot in my first LL post.
And I failed miserably. You should issue me a warning.
scottg02 - June 14, 2010
I actually looked this up earlier
and here’s what Wikipedia says about how it got to 60’ 6".
pdb - June 14, 2010
The way I interpreted it is how different the game would be if the pitcher was standing a few inches closer or further away.
Kenneth Arthur - June 14, 2010
60 feet 6 inches is an exquisitely arbitrary number
Perhaps he (Matthew in disguise as Jeff using Matthew’s account) would have to speculate at that much greater length as to how anyone settles on that distance. It would probably be about as long as that wikipedia blurb on it.
Torjazz - June 14, 2010
Since he's a team leader now plus hit a HR etc I guess Bradley's in LF
and no Saunders the whole series unless he PHs.
ignacio - June 14, 2010
If Wak was going to give Guti an off day, the Wainwirght game would be the day to do so
Poochie - June 14, 2010
Without the ability to play a DH, there's realistically not a real problem with Bradley over Saunders in left.
The issue is more when the Mariners play in an AL park and make a choice involving Bradley in left and anyone else at DH. The inefficiency comes from the defensive upgrade of Saunders over Bradley in conjunction with the lack of a big enough offensive upgrade over Saunders to justify the hit on defense. As much as it would be nice to see Saunders play every day now that the games are nearly meaningless, Bradley is a part of the future as well and trying to get him right offensively is important.
abender20 - June 14, 2010
I wonder if it would be worth it or even possible to teach Bradley first base.
I imagine with everything else going on with him right now, I wouldn’t expect it but it might be a neat off season project.
Jed MC - June 14, 2010
You know,
if we were anywhere within sniffing distance of even third place I’d consider it, but playing as we are for 2011 I’d rather keep Milton healthy and happy, and both of those probably involve him playing LF.
Bearskin Rugburn - June 14, 2010
Another thing interesting to think about
is the width of home plate. If it were smaller you would see a much more offensive minded game, with hitters being able to be more selective. If it were bigger, they’d be at a disadvantage.
17" is another one of the really weird measurements in baseball.
killer_ewok18 - June 14, 2010
I woud guess that it is the distance between an average man's nipples and knees?
So as to make the strike zone a perfect square for most people. I’m just speculating though.
Slow Country - June 14, 2010
You guess that the average man has 17" between his nipples and knees?
That is some bad estimating right there
Matthew - June 14, 2010
I'm wrong.
Slow Country - June 14, 2010
I'm stumped.
Slow Country - June 14, 2010
.
killer_ewok18 - June 14, 2010
Maybe his nipples are next to his belly button.
Kirk - June 14, 2010
As a Cardinals fan, the hopeless tone of your post makes me happy. As a Mariners fan, not so much.
Given the Ms situation, I feel like I can root for the Cards to sweep and still get the best possible outcome for both teams. I mean, maybe it’s time to hope for the number one overall pick. Excuse me while Jon S. the Mariners fan goes and vomits at that last sentence.
Jon S. - June 14, 2010
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