Rebounding Rainiers
Of Seattle's full season underlings, Tacoma has been the most boring from a prospect watcher's standpoint. Michael Saunders' promotion left the thoroughly unexciting Mike Carp, extra outfielder Ezequiel Carrera, 2009 flop Greg Halman and forgotten first rounder Matt Mangini as the team's best prospects.
Carp and Carrera have played up to or below expectations, but Halman and Mangini have been pleasant surprises.
Halman's .250 batting average and 38.2% strikeout rate leave much to be desired, but his 11.8% walk rate is certainly intriguing-- about double anything he's done in the past and in a league where pitchers can generally throw strikes. Add those walks to the power that never left and Halman's line stands at .250/.338/.575 entering Wednesday.
That's not to say that Halman is "fixed." There is work to do for Halman. He's still enigmatic. But we can hope that the walk rate stays up. Even if it drops a bit we'll still take the improvement. The strikeout rate is still unacceptable and shows a complete lack of pitch recognition even if he's added some discipline. Baby steps. We'll take any sign of progress after the disappointment that was last season.
Mangini has alternated between putting up bad numbers and mediocre numbers since becoming a (supplemental) first round pick in 2007 and being labeled Adrian Beltre's successor. But just when he was about to fall right off the prospect radar, his numbers started picking up toward the end of last season and earned him (with help from Alex Liddi) a promotion to AAA. Mangini's bat appears to have turned a corner this season with the Rainiers. He's hitting .305/.355/.556 with an ISO and home run pace that dwarfs anything he's done in the past.
It's still too early to know what to make of the new Mangini, but if he keeps it up he suddenly becomes a new possibility at third or first for the Mariners in the near future.
Liddi starting to prove it
Coming off of an out of nowhere MVP performance in a hitter friendly environment last year, Alex Liddi had something to prove in 2010 in a tougher league and ballpark. Early on it wasn't going so well. Liddi was showing that he had legitimately improved while at High Desert (which isn't disputed), but did he improve enough to perform in an environment that wasn't made to order?
After putting up mediocre numbers in April and May, Liddi has taken off in June, hitting .375/.456/.625 with more line drives, more walks and fewer strikeouts, bringing his season line up to .296/.359/.482. We'll keep watching to see if he can maintain a corner infielder's line this season, but it's looking more and more like he's legit. The Casey Blake comp seems valid to me.
Of course, hitting is only part of it. He may have more to prove with his hot corner defense.
Peguero start was too good to be true
Carlos Peguero turned some heads with his red hot start to the season, hitting .390/.457/.780 with 9 homers in April while striking out significantly less than he had in the past. Had the big man figured it out? If so he's a star!
Not so fast. Peguero has quickly faded back to his norms, with his strikeout percentage jumping back near 30% in May and June and his power output coming back down to earth. His walk rates remain higher than normal, so that's good, but I'm reluctant to view him any differently than I have the last couple years: a big man with a ton of raw power and probably not enough else to make him a big league regular. Hopefully he can find some middle ground this season.
Ackley remains hot
Back in mid May we talked about how Dustin Ackley's bat was starting to come around after a terribly slow start. Well, he hasn't stopped hitting since then. He's hit .336/.481/.456 since May 4th, putting up a .303/.475/.447 line in May and .313/.404/.417 so far in June.
It's certainly nice to see Ackley hitting above .300 the last couple months, but the thing that has been most impressive about Ackley may be his plate discipline. His walk rate sits at 17.3% as he refuses to reach and get himself out, even when he's in a hitting slump or against lefties, against whom he has struggled so far. The home run power isn't there, but it wasn't supposed to be. If Ackley adds power to his game, it's expected to come after he's been around a while. He's going to be a helluva top of the lineup hitter.
Flexing Franklin
There was much gnashing of teeth when the Seattle Mariners selected Nick Franklin with the 27th overall pick in last year's draft, passing over more recognizable names and high upside arms like James Paxton (who we ended up with in the 4th round of this year's draft anyway), Tanner Scheppers, Rex Brothers et al. But Franklin is doing his very best to convince the skeptics that he was the right pick. The Clinton shortstop is hitting .310/.352/.565 with 13 homers so far this season.
Baseball America said he "might top out near 10 homers annually with wood" in their 2010 Mariner prospects ranking. While he still isn't expected to show the power he's showing now in the upper levels, that quote helps illustrate just how surprising his power surge has been this season. The switch hitting shortstop ranks 4th in the Midwest League in slugging and second in home runs.
There are some mild concerns with Franklin, such as his sub-par walk rate or struggles hitting against lefties, but it's hard to take away from how great a full season debut he's having.
Short season
Short season baseball is upon us! Everett opens up on Friday while Pulaski and Arizona open up next week. We'll do some prospect spotlighting once the rosters get settled.
11 recs | 85 comments
If Ackley adds some power down the road, are we looking at a Robinson Cano comp?
Great write-up. If only most of these guys were closer to the majors. Potential 2012 infield of Figgins (3B), Franklin (SS), Ackley (2B), Liddi (1B)?
Wilder. - June 16, 2010
I don't think Cano and Ackley have comparable approaches
In your scenario, maybe Youkilis? Talking strictly bat, that is.
marcello - June 16, 2010
Youkilis doesn't bat left handed and doesn't play 2B.
But other than that, sure, Youk might fit. I would take that kind of bat on this team right now.
Wilder. - June 17, 2010
More of this please, Jon.
Loved this article.
I’m really impressed by Ackley’s recent hot streak, but who wouldn’t be? .481 OBP. That’s just crazy.
Has Mangini played any 1B? Perhaps he can be plugged in there next year if he’s actually turned the corner.
JLProck - June 16, 2010
Keep up the great work!
Slow Country - June 16, 2010
This article is akin to finding an oasis in the middle of a desert
OceanBird - June 16, 2010
I would have been more pleased if you said that Halman is fixed,
but I’ll take what we have and hopefully after we trade CLIFF FUCKING LEE we have more. Thanks for the update on this, between you and JY it’s nice to know that we’re informed about how we look in 2011 and 2012. Jack has got some work to do. Lucky for me, I trust him.
TrustBaseball - June 16, 2010
Thanks for the writeup. The Mangini thing has been a surprise out of nowhere.
It would be cool to hear about some of the pitching prospects in the system. I feel as if I only know a small handful and I can’t really tell you much about them. I’m not sure if other people feel the same way but I feel much more comfortable (knowledge wise) about our positional players than our pitching prospects.
Edgar for Pres - June 16, 2010
In this fan's opinion, the pitching has grown more this season than the hitting in the minors.
Coming into the year, it didn’t look like we had much on the way in terms of good pitching, but with Pineda staying healthy and tearing up AA, Robles, Cleto, and Hensley all showing good stuff (along with the improvements of Fister and Vargas which means we have less immediate needs to fill, yay!) it seems like the Mariners could have quite a few guys with high floors. Last season they did very little with pitching in the draft, so we weren’t exactly getting an influx of new arms into the system coming into the year either. But Jason Churchill recently said he felt that Paxton was as good as Pineda (seems a bit early, but okay) and Taijuan Walker as our top pick, I think the pitching is much better than I personally thought it would be.
I’m most looking forward to 2nd half promotions to AAA for Ackley and maybe Pineda.
Kenneth Arthur - June 16, 2010
I'm gussing you meant "high ceiling"
From everything I hear Pineda is a pretty awesome pitching prospect as long as he can stay healthy and make a couple of small improvements. Everybody else seems like high upside hype or AAAA arms. Maybe I don’t know enough about the individual prospects but most of them seem to have major issues that need to be overcome to make it to the majors.
Edgar for Pres - June 16, 2010
I think it's still important to temper expectations for Pineda (who by the way has been my favorite M's prospect since 2008, though I lean more towards Ackley now) because he's not all the way to being thought of as a "#1" yet.
He’s definitely what you would call a #2 but should be no worse than an above average major league starter. Pineda has a higher ceiling than anyone else but Robles and Cleto I would say are more of the high floor variety. And I think because Doug Fister has had some success in the major leagues, in Safeco, with a good defense, there’s more reason for optimism with pitchers like Kasparek, Laframboise, Anthony Vazquez, Jonathan Hesketh, and Erasmo Ramirez.
If we assume that Felix, Fister, and Vargas can be a solid part of this rotation for the next 3-4 years, then we have plenty of prospects to fill out the rotation with Pineda and Robles having higher ceilings than the rest. But I don’t think the rest is that bad.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
For me you've got:
Potential Greatness:
Pineda
Robles
Potential to move up to Potential Greatness:
Cleto
Paxton
T Walker
Ramirez
Potential to be a productive #4 or 5 starter or above average reliever:
Laframboise
Vazquez
Hesketh
Hensley
I’m probably higher on Erasmo than most, lower on Hensley, and not very high on Kasparek but I guess he’s got hope if Fister can do what he’s doing.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
If you're counting Robles as potentially great, you may as well count any pitcher as potentially great.
abender20 - June 17, 2010
Wrong.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
Come on now
his stuff is great and his control is not terrible most people’s concerns are with his frame, to which there is the Jair Jurrjens rebuttal. I’m not saying I think a whole lot of him but the potential is certainly there. But any list that Robles qualifies for should already have Dan Cortes.
Bearskin Rugburn - June 17, 2010
Good stuff and bad control is a theme throughout the minors. Most of these guys don't become great.
While Robles isn’t Rick Ankiel or anything, it’s a bit early to start lumping him in with Pineda.
abender20 - June 17, 2010
Yes I put him in the same category as Pineda.
But obviously there is a difference between the two. Pineda is much closer to reaching his potential than Robles. Obviously. That’s why it’s potential. If Robles cuts down on his walks, improves his command and consistency, then there his ceiling is higher than the rest of the guys besides Pineda. Robles is two months younger than Pineda but still has his own sub-4.00 FIP in AA.
Robles is better than most guys who good stuff and bad control.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
If Greg Halman cuts down on strikeouts, improves his pitch recognition and contact ability, he'll be Barry Bonds.
abender20 - June 17, 2010
It's not the same degree, but it's the same principle.
abender20 - June 17, 2010
You're right, it's not the same degree.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
I think it's a lot closer than you are willing to acknowledge.
I think Robles is interesting but for him to be a great player in the majors he has to pretty much become a different pitcher. He doesn’t just have to improve his command and consistency; he has to improve them a lot. That’s not to say he’s not going to make an impact, but “great” is a pretty strong word.
Aaron Campeau - June 17, 2010
If I were going over it with a fine comb I wouldn't put him in the same class as Pineda, but also not with the rest of the minor league system. He's somewhere in between.
The key here is the word potential. Potential he has that nobody else currently signed by the team besides Pineda has.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
I guess I disagree that stuff and not-terrible control=potential greatness.
Aaron Campeau - June 17, 2010
And closer than I'm willing to acknowledge, you mean the difference between Halman to Bonds and the difference between Robles and Pineda?
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
I mean that the gap between Pineda and Robles is bigger than you want to acknowledge
Aaron Campeau - June 17, 2010
I think I pretty clearly acknowledged it.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
You said closer not bigger so you can see where that's confusing.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
The M's minors seem to be full of pitchers with so so stuff and good to decent control
Hill, Hensley, (until recently) Fister… and so on. What Robles has on top of his pitching profile is youth, which is important I think.
Bearskin Rugburn - June 17, 2010
Feierabend is still around too right?
Is he the last of the Moyer prototypes this org loved\?
Edgar for Pres - June 17, 2010
Yep
Lots more like him
Bearskin Rugburn - June 17, 2010
Pineda is a top ten pitching prospect in the nation if he stays healthy
I don’t think he is meant to set the bar for that top group
Bearskin Rugburn - June 17, 2010
Does this mean Blue Jays prospects don't count?
seattlebruin - June 17, 2010
Hey Rick Ankiel was ML ready at 19 now
Poochie - June 17, 2010
It's unfair to just dismiss Robles as another "good stuff, bad control" guy
I mean, that’s what he is, but he’s running some of the highest K rates in the minors. If he is one of the “good stuff, bad control” guys, he’s one of the more likely ones to succeed.
Not in the same class as Pineda though.
Fuckmikereilly - June 17, 2010
You lost me at "potential to move up to potential greatness."
That puts your top 6 pitchers all in the same category.
JonBBT - June 17, 2010
That's fair.
I guess with Paxton and Walker its because I have no idea what they’ll actually do when they get to the minors. With Erasmo its because he’s really young and I’m a big fan of his but I can’t give him too much credit until he gets to the higher levels and with Cleto it was because of his injuries and struggles to get into the US last year. They are just four guys that intrigue me more as time goes on. Pineda has obviously moved into a class of his own.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
What, no Stanek?
I think you’re overrating Ramirez quite a bit too. He’s closer to ability to Doug Fister than he is Pineda.
JY - June 17, 2010
I admit I mancrush Erasmo.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
It's a bad idea to mancrush a summer league pitcher based on stats.
I’ve seen many interesting seasons out of the pitchers down there and the only one that tops what Ramirez did last year is Cesar Jimenez.
JY - June 17, 2010
But what about that little baby face of his?
I also mancrush him looking like Alvin and the Chipmunks.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
That's fine.... I think?
JY - June 17, 2010
In all seriousness, I tried to emphasize that my list wasn't perfect and it was only my opinion and that I was "higher on Ramirez than most people"
I know the talent-level is not matching the results he’s had up to this point, but he’s my own personal favorite – such as you like Big Human.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
I'm not sure who that is actually.
Unless you’re referring to Sams, which is quite obviously irrational.
Large Human was Juan Thomas, but I don’t think I was writing about the system when he was still in it.
JY - June 17, 2010
Sorry, Large Human.
I feel like if Erasmo was a sophomore in college, he’d be a decent prospect. 3 walks in 59 innings give me hope that he can maintain a sub-2 bb/9 as he keeps advancing. He is profiled to work better in the bullpen right?
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
I like that he doesn't walk anyone,
but I’m very skeptical until he can show that he can command his pitches within the zone and that his stuff isn’t easily squared up by high level hitters. That he can throw strikes puts him ahead of other soft tossers, but he still has a lot to prove.
Those video game numbers he put up last year were pretty cool, though.
JonBBT - June 17, 2010
Most players, in theory, should work better in the 'pen for the velocity boost
but he has enough of an assortment of pitches to justify starting him.
JY - June 17, 2010
I don't know what to make of this.
JonBBT - June 17, 2010
One thing that kind of annoys me is when people say things like
“should be no worse than an above average major league starter”. I don’t mean to pick on you but people do this all the time. I think people get burned by prospects not because we misjudge their ceiling but because we consistently overestimate a player’s floor. This can be said about almost all prospects. I don’t want to sidetrack this in a discussion about Adam Jones but its his third year in the majors and he looks horrible this year and hasn’t had a WAR > 2 yet. Everybody around here would have probably set the floor for him as an average player with the weighted outcomes of being better than that. It happens all the time because we forget that prospects are in the minors to improve on weaknesses they have that are preventing them from producing at the majors. Improving weaknesses to the point of succeeding in the majors isn’t a trivial thing and most the time it isn’t going to happen.
That said, I pretty much agree with what you had to say with Pineda. Sorry to pick on you. Had to vent about general prospect pet peeve.
Edgar for Pres - June 17, 2010
Indeed.
It’s very easy to get carried away and stuck on the upside or ceiling. We’ve all done it.
JonBBT - June 17, 2010
Yeah we get stuck on the upside
but I think we also make the mistake where we don’t accurately project what a player’s floor could be.
Edgar for Pres - June 17, 2010
It's okay, you say it in a very respectful way and I really appreciate that because many others don't.
I think you are always going to have prospects that disappoint you no matter what you label them as.
There are a handful of M’s prospects that will disappoint if they don’t become above average major league regulars. 90% of the players in the farm system though have low floors that will only surprise you if they become above average major league starters. Doug Fister could have never disappointed us. We never expected much out of him.
You have to set a point somewhere in evaluating these players. Ceiling is going to be at one place and floor is going to be at another.
I think Nick Franklin is in a tough position right now, being that most prospect lists coming out in the coming months will have him as a top 30-top 50 prospect after having not been on many peoples radar before the season. The expectations to repeat his performance will be very high and already I’ve heard many prognosticators say that he has high potential to be an above average major league shortstop. I feel great about that, but he’s still so young that a lot can go wrong between now and then, if that time ever comes.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
Yeah, I guess i thing those guys you refer to should still have a floor that is a below average MLB player.
Edgar for Pres - June 17, 2010
The floor for a player such as Hesketh is "Never makes the majors"
The ceiling is what I list it as, #4 or 5 starter or above average reliever.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
The issue is being dissapointed if a prospect doesn't become an above-average MLB regular.
That’s not an easy thing to do. Cost-controlled league average players are important assets.
Aaron Campeau - June 17, 2010
If Michael Pineda doesn't, you won't be disappoited?
I wish I could have no expecations for anyone, but I guess I do.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
Seeing league average as a realistic and decent outcome isn't nearly the same as having "no expectations"
I’m sure I’d be somewhat disappointed, but in the end it would probably be more my fault than his.
Aaron Campeau - June 17, 2010
You make it seem like it's not okay to have expectations of any prospect based on anything they do.
Michael Pineda put himself in this “position” of me having “expectations” that he should be an “above average major league regular” in the same way that Strasburg would disappoint if he didn’t have an “above average major league career”
Its ot like because I expect Laframboise to be an above average major league regular because I expect Pineda to or anything like that. How you pitch, how you play, going into your major league career, is going to determine how you are viewed. I shouldn’t be blamed for being disappointed if Pineda doesn’t make it in the major leagues.
I don’t want to keep getting into it with you ac, but at a certain point it just seems like you love to disagree with me and that’s why you continuously do it. Just because you like to.
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
Look dude, if you make strong statements you need to be prepared to defend them.
I don’t have disagreements with you because you’re you. I have disagreements with you because I disagree with a lot of what you say. It’s nothing personal.
As far as the substance of your comment, I disagree with the fact that being average amounts to not making it in the majors. I think you’re underestimating how difficult it is to get to that point, I think you’re underestimating the value of young players and I think you’re underestimating the risk of injury and/or stunted development faced by young pitchers.
I think it’s fair to be optimistic that Pineda will be an above-average pitcher. I think that if his development continues at its current pace he will get to that level. But he’s still a prospects and prospects flame out all the time, even good ones.
Aaron Campeau - June 17, 2010
I missed a chunk of this
but is the argument still about Robles being in the ‘great potential’ group? Great potential does not strike me as very strong language.
Bearskin Rugburn - June 17, 2010
I think my second paragraph sums up my argument
Aaron Campeau - June 17, 2010
I am not sure which part of what I said underestimates how difficult it is to reach the majors, but trust me I am well aware of that fact.
If that’s how it comes across, it’s not how I meant it to. As somebody who has a very deep love for minor leagues and prospects and has followed it pretty closely, I know that it is hard to reach expectations. But my expectations for Pineda are different than my floor and my ceiling for him. Pineda could be one of many things and I’m not sitting here predicting what kind of major league starter he’ll be – I can’t overstate the fact enough that I said “Potential” and not “He will be a great starter”
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
Excellent. Rec rec rec.
Seriously. Just as I was starting to wonder about our boys down on the farm, I see this wonderful peice waiting for me. My hopes for the future are now specific and informed as opposed to vague and irrational.
Jon S. - June 16, 2010 via mobile
I could go for minor league updates every week, but Jay does an excellent job with those at USSM.
I agree though, thanks JonBBT!
Kenneth Arthur - June 16, 2010
Thanks Jon.
I appreciate these updates on what’s happening down on the farm. I would love to read a similar writeup on our pitchers and how they are (or aren’t) progressing.
wyte_lightning - June 16, 2010
I wonder if it'd be worth it to trade Halman to a particularly stupid GM.
I doubt he’s ever going to put it together, but the, what 5-10% chance of putting it all together has to be worth something.
craig3410 - June 16, 2010
Trading him seems like a bad idea to me.
You’re not going to get great value for him and his upside far outweighs what you’re likely to get back in a deal.
200tang - June 16, 2010
If that is the criteria for when a prospect should be traded then we should literally be trying to trade everybody in our farm system.
Edgar for Pres - June 16, 2010
This seems like a really bad idea
a bad GM would likely see his .234 average and say “no thanks”
seattlebruin - June 16, 2010
Ackley's OBP is above his Slugging, while Halman is slugging .240 points above his OBP.
That’s 2 different roads to success, to be sure.
joof - June 17, 2010
Liddi is going to be a key guy to watch, I think.
He was signed out of Italy at 16 so it is not surprising that it took him awhile to adjust to baseball here, as I can’t imagine there was any kind of serious competition in Italy. I don’t see any way he plays 3B on a Jack and Wak squad though. And because it looks like hitting for average won’t be a problem the question becomes will he walk and hit for enough power to play 1B? He is actually younger than both Raben and Poythress as well as being further along developmentally. So putting all that together if one of Liddi/Raben/Poythress ends up being the .500 slugging player the M’s need, or helps the team trade for an established player of that caliber, another piece of the puzzle will have been found.
Jack Swan - June 17, 2010
Why wouldn't he be a decent fielder at third?
He’s gotten very good reviews on his defense throughout the minors and is a good athlete
seattlebruin - June 17, 2010
He's gotten very mixed reviews on his defense throughout the minors.
JonBBT - June 17, 2010
Interesting
I remember Churchill being high on it and Jay said he had gotten generally favorable reviews
seattlebruin - June 17, 2010
He got more favorable reviews last year than he has this year.
Last year a lot of metrics put him as one of the best in his league and the coaches of the league voted him the same. This year, he’s a mess.
JY - June 17, 2010
Churchill was one of the first to say he will have trouble at third.
When he signed he was 6’2" 175lbs. Now he is 6’4" and if he is an ounce under 220 I’ll eat my hat. Some guys that size (Longoria, Zimmerman) are agile enough for third, most are moved off the position like a Micheal Cuddyer. Also it is not a good sign that as he is promoted the defense looks worse.
Jack Swan - June 17, 2010
I wonder how much hiring Marcus Elliott has helped the farm system this year.
Not only have our prospects been playing really well but they have been relatively healthy.
Mariners121212 - June 17, 2010
I tend to think of Elliot's program as a long term helper rather than something that's going to see big results right away.
JonBBT - June 17, 2010
How do you guys feel about Limonta?
At 26 in AA, Johan’s getting oldish for a prospect now, but he didn’t get a full season under his belt until 23 and has been slow to receive promotions despite consistently OPS’ing over .800. He’s been in West Tennessee since mid-2008 (age 24-26), and during that time he’s run a .299/.372/.481 line with lots of doubles and not many homers. He’s slugging .522 this season (and .661 this month).
Promote him, cut Everidge? Keep Everidge, let him repeat AA? What say you?
chaney - June 17, 2010
He's left-handed, so Everidge isn't redundant.
I think he has a chance as a future platoon hitter. I just want to see him in not-double-A and soon.
JY - June 17, 2010
He has many similarities to Mike Carp.
Except he is 3 years older. Organizational fodder me thinks.
Jack Swan - June 17, 2010
Except Limonta can actually play the outfield.
JY - June 17, 2010
Robles gave up four runs in the first inning today.
Sigh.
JY - June 17, 2010
Damn it.
There’s some recent injury with him right? Lingering perhaps?
Kenneth Arthur - June 17, 2010
Nope.
His command just sucks.
JY - June 17, 2010
There's certainly potential for there to be an injury though
you have to grant him that
Matthew - June 18, 2010
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