This isn't yet official, so don't hold me to it, but the word is that Mike Carp's coming up from Tacoma, where he's batted .250/.319/.457 with a team-leading ten home runs.
A Carp promotion would presumably come at the expense of Casey Kotchman, who has 16 hits over his last 109 at bats with absolutely zero power, but I don't want to get ahead of myself.
Carp - who only turns 24 in June - doesn't look like he's made a lot of progress in AAA from where he was a year ago, but he has hit fewer than 300% of his balls in play on the ground, which would make him a nice change of pace at first. That he plays defense like a glove on a starfish would be a worse change of pace.
Update: so, yeah, Carp is coming up, but it doesn't look like it'll be a Kotchman DFA, but rather Mike Sweeney going on the DL with a bad back that's kept him out of a few games already. Surprise! If Wak handles this right, it could and should mean a little more time for Saunders, which is neat. If Wak handles this wrong, then we'll see a lot more Eliezer Alfonzo at shortstop. What??
1 recs | 277 comments
I'm all for it. Time to see what we have that can help us next year
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
If Carp is what is going to help us next year, we're probably fucked.
Not to dog on you, I just don’t see him as a big part of the team’s future.
JY - June 6, 2010
Eh. A 1.5-2 WAR 1B playing at league minimum?
I could live with that. It won’t fix all the problems with the roster, but this team can’t go out and sign a zillion free agents.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
If Carp is a 1.5-2 WAR 1B then I will prepare a nacho hat and eat it
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
Win-win
morrow - June 6, 2010
That sounds like something I would do tonight, without any conditions, because it sounds so awesome.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
I think that's eventually where he ends up- Eric Hinske/Casey Kotchman land of "God, you should be better, but you're not."
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
Eventually, or now?
Your comment confused me.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
Maybe now, more likely later.
Sometimes players DO get peaks earlier. Seems to happen more to the “old players skills” group, like Alvin Davis and Ben grieve (not that I am saying Carp == Grieve or Davis, more that who knows, me might luck into some decent years earlier in his career).
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
er, we might.
But basically, I’d agree with your point that Kotchman is doing essentially nothing and what the hell, might as well spend a few months looking at Carp and seeing if he’s a potential fill-in at 1B or if we need to go outside the organization. I’m not wedded to the guy- below average but above replacement level talent at 1B is fairly easy to find for a few million if you need it.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
If it's later then he no longer is making the minimum
Matthew - June 6, 2010
He won't be around here for more than when he's arb-eligible if he's a terrible player here, though.
Can’t see GMZ retaining a bad player once they start hitting arb paydays, which are based around things like HRs and ignore defense.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
In other words, he'll either be adequate and cheap or end up with the Royals soon enough...
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
The Mariners are at a sort of difficult crossroads with respect to players.
Other than Ichiro, Guti, Felix, and however much we have left of Lee, the team is basically composed of league average ceiling players that probably won’t even meet that. Loafie may very well end up a 3 win player, it’s not time to give up on Figgins, and Saunders has promise, but catcher, shortstop, 1b, are all manned and backed up by guys that have no real upside and not a lot of value as is.
This team needs to face the prospect of finding more talented players, and the talent pool at first is much larger than that for catcher and short. That’d be a good place to start. This is what Dave Cameron was talking about in the offseason when he mentioned how difficult it is to get from .500 to better than that. There’s no harm in letting Carp run out the string, but we can’t continue to run out so many adequate and cheap players and expect to succeed. Mike Carp is fine in theory but useless in practice.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
I get what you are saying and agree.
But if you strip down a team to it’s absolute core and have Guti, Ichi, and Felix, you have to feel pretty good about it.
the other side - June 6, 2010
Figgins' ceiling is a 5-win player
He was worth six wins last year, and we projected him to be between 3-4 wins this year. He’s still Chone Figgins, even if he hasn’t been himself for two months.
Decatur - June 6, 2010
Which is why I didn't include him in that list.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Well, if it was easy to find 2-3 win players at 1B...
Don’t you think we’d have one by now? I mean, really, we’ve needed one since Richie Sexson went pfft in 2007.
The problem is that the M’s don’t have the farm system to plug in talented+cheap players, and don’t have the money to plug in talented+expensive (the only reason we have Cliff Lee is his salary fit in our cost structure in 2010, but it’s unlikely it will in 2011- keep in mind the salary budget was CUT in 2010, and may get cut again in 2011 thanks to continued attendance declines). That means either a) having to recreate the Putz-Guti trade at multiple positions, which is damned tough to do, or b) field various types of flawed players and hope for the best… and sometimes, a 1-1.5 WAR player WILL come up with a season well above their head. Hinske and Kotchman have both had 4.5ish WAR seasons, even though they aren’t anything close to consistent 4 WAR players.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
It is relatively easy to find league average players at first base. We managed to do so last year for peanuts.
The front office took a shot at it again this year and it didn’t work out. Other teams got luckier with Troy Glaus and Adam Laroche and whatnot.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
And our league average player didn't come back because he couldn't stay league-average.
He basically went from ZOMG WOW to useless by August thanks to his back, plus he was 34.
Was talking more “someone who isn’t a fill-in who we’ll just have to replace next year”. Carp’s reasonably likely to be a fill-in, I’ll grant you that, but I don’t really have an issue of filling in with him until something better comes along. Giving him playing time in 2010 doesn’t stop us from looking at other stuff.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
Please stop using chatspeak, even ironically.
We’re trying to keep things like “zOMG” off the blog. Thanks.
CapSea - June 6, 2010
If you expect him to contribute like that immediately, then wow.
JY - June 6, 2010
yah JY - that's why I said its time to see what we have
… And if he fits or if we need to look somewhere else. You can’t possibly be saying that we should keep putting kotchman out there?
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010 via mobile
Probably not.
JY - June 6, 2010
As opposed to Everidge, who plays D like a glove nailed to a barrell.
Whatever. Carp hit .400 this past week.
JY - June 6, 2010
Does at the expense of Kotchman mean a DFA?
That seems a little drastic even though Kotchman has been pretty horrible at the plate. Sweeney can’t take the field and if Carp can’t get it done then that might mean Tui gets more time. Maybe someone takes a trip to the DL?
KC Mariner - June 6, 2010
I don't know. At this point all we can do is speculate
However, while a DFA might be harsh, it’s clear that Kotchman has made no progress. He’s no longer a possible solution.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
I agree.
I guess I’m just not sold on Carp and worried that if Kotchman goes away the team hasn’t thought through what they will do if Carp fails. It seems to be another decision that’s made without thinking about the second (or third) order effects if things don’t go as planned.
KC Mariner - June 6, 2010
I'm not sold on Carp either
I don’t think Carp is very good, and I don’t think Carp is ever going to be very good. However, at least he has a chance, while Kotchman seems like a lost cause.
And if Carp fails, well, it won’t be too hard to find a better first baseman than a failed Mike Carp.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
It shouldn't be hard to find a better first baseman than a failed Mike Carp, but here we go having to rely on Carp after failing with the current options.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Well said.
CapSea - June 6, 2010
Can't really pull high-minors depth out of thin air
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
How many minor league players are their in the mariner system?
From what I’ve read it seems like there are only 3-5 players in our minor leagues who have potential to make it next year or the year after. How does that compare to other teams? I know we gave up a lot for Cliff Lee but we should be able to get a lot in return if we decide to trade him.
LeftArrow2 - June 6, 2010
None of the three players we gave up for Lee are ready for the majors.
Aumont was just demoted to High A, Gillies is stuggling, and well JC Ramirez has been good. He’s probably the only guy of the three that could contribute something in short order.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Four main minor league teams, with I assume 25 man rosters.
And then there are more when you go deeper past that with the short season leagues but… yeah. They aren’t anywhere close to the majors.
If you had 3-5 impact players coming up in a year or two, that would be a lot. Most of the time you are bringing up guys like Tuiasosopo, Josh Wilson, and Mike Carp. Not usually impact guys.
In September or next year, we might have a few new faces that could really make an impact. But not now.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
Awwh I guess I was just being optimistic
Its nice to put everything in perspective.
LeftArrow2 - June 6, 2010
It shouldn't be hard to find a better first baseman than a failed Mike Carp, but here we go having to rely on Carp after failing with the current options.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Whatever, it's not like this season matters any more.
Carp is more fun than Kotchman anyway. Wow ok we get it Casey, you can make a diving play at first. Too bad every other infielder is better at defense than you and more fun to watch. Some homeruns would be much, much more entertaining at this point.
I miss Eric Byrnes.
lailaihei - June 6, 2010
Watching Carp play defense isn't going to be awfully fun, and it's not like what's his offensive upside. .340 wOBA?
I understand the rationale for him over Kotchman, but he isn’t a long term solution so it’s just a chance to get some relief from watching Kotchman destroy the infield grass.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
I don't even know if he'll be a great hitter, but at least he might knock a couple out.
lailaihei - June 6, 2010
First base defense is like... one of the least important defensive positions right?
Of course its gonna save you some runs over a season, but if it’s anywhere, at least its first base.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
Runs is runs.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
I'm just saying, less runs than if you downgraded centerfield.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
That's not how it works, really.
Matthew - June 6, 2010
No?
I mean, and I’m just giving my honest opinion but am willing to hear other opinions – but you put a guy at first base oftentimes if he’s really not good enough defensively to play 3rd base or right field or something. Or you put them in one of the corner outfield spots if they are a good enough hitter, like at first base, to make up for their bad or below average defense.
However, I suppose if I think about it, you can still lose the same amount of runs at first base as any other position if the loss on defense is significant enough. So… I concede.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
Your last sentence hits it.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Sometimes you just gotta things out to yourself.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
It's significantly higher than .340
seattlebruin - June 7, 2010
His minor league wOBA ranges from .360 - .390.
In 65 PAs last year at the major league level, it was .388.
Dunno if you bank on that long-term, though.
HititHere - June 7, 2010
What an awful comment. Contribute better.
CapSea - June 6, 2010
Previewed, hit post, got two. Glorious glorious SBN.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
I thought Carp did pretty adequately last season.
bagsflyfree - June 6, 2010
He had 65 trips to the plate
He showed that he has a good eye, but it was too small a sample to really do much.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
This is the main point
I made this argument last week on USSM, but no matter what you think about this team, Kotchman no longer offers enough to be its starting first baseman. If you’re playing for now, you need to make a trade and get a better player in here ASAP. If you’re playing for the future, then he’s just taking at-bats from someone who will be in the organization past November, as he’s a virtual lock for a non-tender this winter.
So, yeah, Carp’s not great, but at least the team won’t be releasing him at season’s end. If he has a hot streak, at least it might give him some trade value or something. If Kotchman has a hot streak, it doesn’t matter.
davidcameron - June 6, 2010
I don't know that protecting at-bats for Carp is of any value whatsoever
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
you are right - you dont know. No one does.
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010 via mobile
I really wish you would make an attempt to make a positive contribution to discussions
Instead of trying to play “gotcha” all the time.
Nobody knows for sure what any player will do going forward, no, but we have a reasonably good sense of what Carp’s true talent level is at this point. He’s not going to turn into Albert Pujols.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
That's not fair. I only advocate managing this year's club to ensure a better chance in 2011.
If we stick with pieces that we know won’t help us next year, we are losing an opportunity. How is trying to get an answer to an unknown a “gotcha”?
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
as hominem tu quoque
Kermit. - June 6, 2010
At this point I'd rather see a Langerhands/Sweeney platoon at 1B with Saunders starting everyday in LF and Bradley at DH,
Decatur - June 6, 2010
I agree. The goal from here on out should be getting at bats for Saunders in whatever way possible.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
In particular, we need to figure out if he can at least passably hit major league lefties
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
How does this exact logic not apply to carp?
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
Saunders can (at some point) field and run and throw and hit and decently walk.
Carp can maybe hit and draw walks
Mariner John - June 6, 2010
Or maybe play DH? Or maybe be added as a piece in a deal?
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
Boy that's quite a bit of potential there.
DH or trade filler.
Mariner John - June 6, 2010
You guys are acting as if I'm suggesting that he could become mark tixiera
I’m only suggesting that determining his potential, however high or low it may be, has value when we do it before the next offseason. Sticking with retreads like Langerhans, kotchman and Sweeny doesn’t help this team in 2011
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
And you're pretending that we have no idea how to project players based on minor league performances
Carp’s absolute best case scenario is about a 2.5 win player. More likely, he settles in somewhere between 1-2.
This isn’t some blind guess, it’s based on what we know about how minor league performance projects to the major leagues.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Not hardly. But, based on available options, it appears to have the most value from a club management perspective, does it not?
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
Finding out where Mike Carp might fall in that roughly 1 win talent range isn't:
a) something you can easily determine in a few hundred at bats at any level, if ever
b) important at all.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
You got me. Let's beg Jack and Wak to keep running Kotchman out there.
That must be the better strategy.
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
Come on. There's no need for that.
What people are trying to tell you is that NEITHER is a particularly good option, and that there’s no good reason to care which they go with.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Ok, but choosing neither is not an option. As insignificant as it might be, playing carp now is still a better choice.
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
You win. Cue confetti.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Yay!
Hopefulmsfan - June 7, 2010
We already know things about Carp based on his minor league numbers.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Hi there, Jeff.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
At least now you're replying to people other than me!
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
You want your DH to be able to hit really well.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Unless you're Bill Bavasi, in which case, helllloooo, Jose Vidro!
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
Saunders has a much higher ceiling as a prospect. Unless something batty happens with Carp, his likely case is still not a great asset.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
That's not very likely to be much of an improvement on Carp.
Langerhans is basically Casey Kotchman with less bat as a 1B. If you really think a subpar bat, good glove LH 1B is the way to go, why not just wait for Kotchman to regress back to hitting .260/.330/.410 again?
Langerhans really is a tweener, good glove OF with barely enough bat to not be a joke. Putting him at 1B just turns that to “not enough bat”.
Sweendawg, we’ve been over ad nauseam, so I’ll just say Dave’s point of “let’s play some guys who we might think can contribute in 2011” comes to mind.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
It matters if they win.
If Kotchman gets hot and they start winning, then it matters. It’s a little too early to throw in the towel, but not by much.
morrow - June 6, 2010
That's a sizeable if.
JY - June 6, 2010
Is it?
It’s not hard to imagine Kotchman (and a few others) producing on par with his career norms. It’s also not hard to imagine the M’s winning if that happens.
morrow - June 6, 2010
Clearly Tui will be the new starting first baseman
Carp will be the backup!
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
There's enough possible truth behind your joke to make it sting.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Bill Hall has a .371 wOBA
Goose - June 6, 2010
He sure does!
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
Not that Hall and Carlos Silva had any worth to the team, but their new-found success with their respective teams seems fitting
tait644 - June 6, 2010
WHY DO
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Yeah it obviously means nothing, but it's still annoying.
Goose - June 6, 2010
I MISS HIM SO MUCH
Poochie - June 6, 2010
I wasn't a super huge fan of dealing Hall,
But I was more okay with it at the time of the deal than I am now. Not really fair to judge a deal in hindsight so I guess I don’t know what my point is here.
By the way Bill Hall has also pitched a scoreless ninth.
Mariner Melee - June 7, 2010
I hate Mike Carp
If you play first base, you must hit.
That he represents something better than Casey Kotchman, is sad.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
The thing is, we don't know that Carp is something better
tait644 - June 6, 2010
But the organization thinks he represents something possibly better.
I have little hope that he is. But then again, everything we’ve seen from Casey Kotchman over the last month + has been at least as bad as Griffey was. At least.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
To be fair
Kotchman’s LD% is above his career average but his BABIP is 70 points below his career average. He isn’t as bad as his results have been. But it is time for a change
tait644 - June 6, 2010
Yeah, Kotchman has clearly been both mediocre and unlucky
But accounting for luck just gives you the Casey Kotchman that already existed, rather than an improved Casey Kotchman, which is what we were looking for.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
This I agree with.
His GB rate is a tick higher than his career average, which wasn’t going to cut it. He hasn’t changed at all. I just wonder if he had better luck we’d be talking about a possible Carp call-up and Kotchman DFA.
tait644 - June 6, 2010
Think Kotchman would be claimed by the Angels if he were DFA'd?
Janic - June 6, 2010
It wouldn't surprise me if he passed waivers.
I know he wouldn’t, but I don’t think anyone who has watched him in the last month would pick him up.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
I hope someone claims him, anyone, so we don't have to pay his salary.
lailaihei - June 6, 2010
If he is DFA'd I think we still have to pay him.
But the business side confuses me sometimes. I think it would be the same as us picking up Eric Byrnes and the Diamondbacks still paying him.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
That's if he passes waivers. If someone claims him off waivers, we can work out a deal with the other team to trade/whatever.
I think.
lailaihei - June 6, 2010
I'm thinking that's more like the Alex Rios situation, where we didn't know he was available until after the White Sox picked him up.
I think.
But I’m glad neither of us are sure.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
I am not positive...and based on the update this is unnecessary speculation but...
I believe that whatever team would pick him up would pay league min, while we would have to cover the rest of his contract above league min.
That is what happened with Byrnes, correct?
eflegen - June 6, 2010
As I understand it...
Kotchman is owed $3.5M for 2010.
If the Mariners put him on waivers and another team claims him, the claiming team assumes that $3.5M.
If the Mariners trade Kotchman, the two teams can work out who pays how much of Kotchman’s $3.5M. It can go to either team or be split up. It would usually go to the receiving team.
If Kotchman is released, the Mariners still owe him the $3.5M. If he signs with another team, however, he does not get another contract on top of the $3.5M. What the new team agrees to pay him comes out of the $3.5M, relieving the Mariners a bit. Kotchman would almost certainly sign for league minimum, because there is just no reason for the new team to pay him anything more than that. Kotchman is getting $3.5M either way. For a real example: Eric Byrnes was owed $11M by the D-Backs this season. They released him and the Mariners signed him for $400K. Thus, the D-Backs were only on the line for $10.6M, with the Mariners paying the $400K.
JonBBT - June 6, 2010
They are 7-1 since Morales went down. They probably wouldn't see the need.
tait644 - June 6, 2010
If I were an Angel I would be terrified for next year, since Angels Baseball apparently runs on human sacrifice.
JAH - June 6, 2010
It's probably Kendrick's turn...
tait644 - June 6, 2010
I hope it is Weaver's turn
bluemax - June 7, 2010
Keep Kotch and Replace Tui -
At least that’s what I hope happens. I know, I know, Kotchman isn’t hitting. But he can’t be beat on defense and that’s one of Jack Z’s core beliefs. Defense would be downgraded and offense can only go up. Kotchman has been hitting the ball better lately. I’d like to see Carp be more of a utility infielder rather than just play first. I don’t know his experience with that, though. Whatever happens, I really just want Tui to go far, far away.
truemsfan - June 6, 2010
Can a player who only plays 1B - and plays it poorly - be a "utility infielder"?
tait644 - June 6, 2010
I don't think the big leagues are the place to learn to be a utility infielder.
Plus, Carp’s not known for his defense at first, so the idea of him playing other infield positions seems a little far fetched. As bad as Tui’s been, I’d rather have him as the utility guy than someone like Carp who would be learning new positions while adjusting to major league pitching.
KC Mariner - June 6, 2010
There is no good reason to rather have Tui than anything
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
I know Tui can't actually play the middle infield
but he can at least hold a glove and stand there, while Carp would fall over and die. We need a utility infielder on the bench.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
HAMMERHANDS!
JAH - June 6, 2010
I would enjoy it
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
I miss him.
Mariner Melee - June 7, 2010
Adam Everett was DFA'd from what I've heard...
Thingray - June 7, 2010
I'm not sure you can prove this
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Are you sure Carp isn't already dead?
I mean – he is awfully pale…
tait644 - June 6, 2010
I agree, we DO need a utility infielder on the bench...
…so why the hell not Hannahan? I don’t understand why he’s not being used AT ALL. I thought he was over the groin issue. He’s WAAAAYYYYY better than Tui. He can actually play around the infield and if I remember correctly from last season, can hit ok. And ok is better than most of what our team has been doing. Answers? Anyone?
truemsfan - June 6, 2010
His hitting has been abysmal so far this year.
That’s the only reason I can think of.
Jackle Mackle - June 6, 2010
Abysmal hitting is what Mariners do best. He'd fit right in.
JAH - June 6, 2010
Free Hanners!
Benne - June 6, 2010
I am against this.
Kotchman’s bad luck is masking a potential 1.5 to 2-win player. Not a centerpiece by any means, but serviceable and I don’t think his arbitration award after this season would be prohibitory, thanks in part to said bad luck.
Matthew - June 6, 2010
He hasn't really been that bad which saddens me.
Slurvey - June 6, 2010
I'm not a fan of trying to replace Kotchman with Carp, if that's what's happening.
The chance that Carp will end up being more than marginally more productive than Kotchman is el zilcho.
Either make a move to solidify first base with a quality player, or leave Kotchman alone and see if he can figure things out.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Zero?
Really?
You think the chances that a not-24-yet Mike Carp will outproduce Casey Kotchman are zero?
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
Not zero, el zilcho.
lailaihei - June 6, 2010
Pretty much, yes.
I’ve never been high on Carp.
But let’s lose the hyperbole for a moment, and state my position more clearly:
I think that if both players fulffill their maximum potential, Kotchman will be a win or two better than Carp, but Kotchman is somewhat less likely to fulfill said potential. I can’t really quantify how much.
In my mind, you either get serious about finding a quality young first baseman or you give Kotchman at least until the All-Star break.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Calling up Carp does not prohibit the team from getting serious about finding a quality young first baseman
I am sure they’re looking. They are more aware of Carp’s limitations than we are.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
But what does bringing Carp up in the meantime get you?
Worse defense, and maybe slightly better offense?
I don’t have a problem with the move per se, but it falls into the “mostly pointless” category.
(and yes, I’m sure they are looking as well and god I hope they find one)
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Kotchman is doing nothing. Nothing at all. He hasn't homered since April 19th.
At least Carp has promise. Maybe they’ve received good reports on his swing. Maybe they’ve received good reports on his defense. Maybe there’s something they know that we don’t. Maybe there isn’t. But right now, this team is going nowhere, and Kotchman isn’t helping. Replacing him with Carp wouldn’t fix the team, but it wouldn’t really hurt it very much, if it hurts it at all.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
Yeah, and I have to think at least one of your "maybes" is right
But we have fairly good coverage of at least the high minors from people like Jay and Marc, and I haven’t heard any of them say “HOLY CARP” recently, so…
Again though, don’t read what I’m saying too strongly, I’m hardly an ardent defender of Kotchman. Mike Carp just doesn’t excite me at all, either.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
It's possible there's something to his uptick in homers
Who knows. I don’t like Mike Carp very much either, but I’m not going to get upset if we lose Casey Kotchman, because Casey Kotchman hasn’t improved at all.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
If someone had said before the season "No, you really are getting Casey Kotchman"
We probably wouldn’t have gotten him.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
Zips likes Kotchman for a .319 wOBA the rest of the way.
I sure as hell hope Carp can outdo a .319 wOBA. And I would think that the defense at worst will make them equal players except one of them still has potential.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
Zero? How can you possibly determine that?
The value in giving carp at bats now is to determine what we have to do to set the roster in 2011. Answering an unknown has value since we can all agree that Kotchman is not a viable solution.
Gekko Mojo - June 6, 2010
Not everyone has limitless potential. It's pretty safe to say, for instance, that we don't need more at bats to figure out if Rob Johnson is Joe Mauer.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
You never know!
Boz86 - June 7, 2010
Not that it makes a big difference
but if you call him a +10 defender and -3 baserunner, I think 1-1.5 is more accurate.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
I didn't factor baserunning
so I’d be fine with calling it 1.5.
Is there some reason Brad Nelson isn’t a much better option? He’s not on the 40 man but we do have open slots.
Matthew - June 6, 2010
Would someone like Everidge be an option? Or maybe even Poythress, who I am massively curious about?
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
No reason to start wasting Poythress' service time on a lost season.
lailaihei - June 6, 2010
Poythress has a lot of work still to do.
Matthew - June 6, 2010
Poythress would probably be eaten alive by major league pitching right now.
.422 wOBA at home, .337 on the road, which includes 4 home runs in 3 games at Lancaster, which I’m told is a hitters haven. His numbers are good but they’re skewed. We need to see what he does at West Tennessee.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
Incase you can't tell, patience is not one of my strong suits
I’ve been excited about Poythress since we drafted him.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Poythress is in advanced-A and hit about half his home runs in really friendly parks.
JY - June 6, 2010
DON'T YOU DARE RUIN MY MANCRUSH
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
I think you have to share your mancrush with Positive Paul too.
JY - June 6, 2010
Well, he's had quite a nice long stretch of bad luck where he's played below that.
And exactly how hard is it to find serviceable 1.5-2 WAR players at 1B? Last year it was Branyan, this year it was Kotchman, we’ll try Carp for a bit, in the offseason it will be (fill in the blank come January 2011).
Hard for me to get too excited here.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
Branyan != Kotchman != Carp
They aren’t interchangeable.
Matthew - June 6, 2010
!=
Do non-programmers generally understand that to mean “not equal”?
morrow - June 6, 2010
As a nonprogrammer, the first several dozen times I saw !=, I took it to mean not equal, but for a different reason
I read it like this:
Branyan! = Kotchman, which has a connotation of sarcasm which implies a nonequal relationship
Corco - June 6, 2010
Even before I programmed or knew anything about programming, I assumed it meant not equal since it looks like the mathematical sign for not equal.
joof - June 7, 2010
First few times I saw it
I thought it meant “really really equals!”
Karma Police - June 7, 2010
I was not aware of it, and prefer â‰
The ≠symbol isn’t keyboard-handy but is more intuitive.
lemonverbena - June 7, 2010
Also, this Ûž
is the symbol for Nacho Hat.
lemonverbena - June 7, 2010
How do you do that?
Matt Erickson - June 7, 2010
Skillset? No. Of course not.
I think the idea is “hey, we use a flawed but cheap player to paper over a hole in the roster unti we’ve got a better idea on how to deal with it, and maybe we get lucky and more than we bargained for”.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
Color me the opposite color of surprised
Poochie - June 6, 2010
So cerulean, then.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
I don't even know what that is
Poochie - June 6, 2010
Blue
eflegen - June 6, 2010
Cerulean...tah-dah!
Matt Erickson - June 7, 2010
Also, this is one of the most amazing blurbs ever
well done
Poochie - June 6, 2010
There are so many good first baseman in the league.
How did we miss out on getting one? I know he sucked in the 2nd half, I know there were injuries, but I miss Russell Branyan. He was nearly a 3-win player, and he’s been healthy for a month.. woulda been nice to have him over that time.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
He declined our offer of one year + an option
and eventually accepted a lesser deal with Cleveland. Outside of offering him more money or giving him that guaranteed second year (wouldn’t have been a great idea with his back the way it was/is), there wasn’t much we could do about bringing Russell back.
Jackle Mackle - June 6, 2010
Yeah, if it wasn't for him then it wasn't for him.
Still would have been nice.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
Oh I agree totally.
Everyone liked Branyan, and it’s really too bad his back had to go out when it did.
Jackle Mackle - June 6, 2010
If it really is Kotchman that is going,
at least I’ll have my autographed ball and picture from fanfest.
chezbergrur - June 6, 2010
Move doesn't do anything to really improve the team, but I can't stand Kotchman and
his akwardness, ground balls, and ugly mug. I have no issue if the team just gets rid of him. He has no future here and he’s a boring player.
Carp doesn’t provide much and is also an akward looking man, so I’ll probably hate him too, but at least he’s someone new for a bit.
Bottomline, I just can’t wait until about 2012 when Jack has had ample time to put together a farm system, and build this offense up. I’m sick and tired of having to break down a bunch of peripheral numbers to come to the conclusion that a position player could possibly be adequate offensively, if he corrects this or that, or if he can recapture his form from multiple seasons ago (Kotchman, Byrnes, Bradley, etc)…
Better days are ahead.
Rudy4three - June 6, 2010
The problem is that it has worked for Jack to think like that.
He saw potential in Guti that a lot of people didn’t see. If they had, Cleveland surely wouldn’t have traded him and neither would have anyone else.
He believed in Branyan.
He believed in Aardsma.
He’s getting a mulligan this season because of how awesome his moves were last season.
Kenneth Arthur - June 6, 2010
We wanted Zobrist too.
JY - June 6, 2010
I'm assuming the past tense is only due to his present untouchability.
the other side - June 6, 2010
Jah.
JY - June 6, 2010
He loves his post-hypes.
The success rate is bound to go down. Don’t forget fumbles with Cedeno and Olson, two more post-hypes.
JonBBT - June 6, 2010
Would Cedeno have been a fumble if it weren't for that season ending collision?
eflegen - June 7, 2010
That was Endy Chavez
xero3k - June 7, 2010
Awww I liked Endy.
the other side - June 7, 2010
Oh, yeah. Opps...I'm bad with names.
eflegen - June 7, 2010
And let me take this opportunity for my daily "Fuck You Yuni".
the other side - June 7, 2010
Educated gambles are important and there's evidence of that all of the league.
Carlos Pena, a guy a lot of us lust over, was a scrap heap acquisition by the Rays*. A lot of the current front office’s success in trades has to do with making good on those plays.
*Looking at his numbers is hilarious. Even when he was supposedly bad with the Tigers, he was still a better than league average hitter.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Finding underappreciated talent is very important, as is taking some educated gambles..
The problem is that we are relying way too much on educated gambles.
We relied on way too many gambles in regards to our position players this year. The unproven catchers, Kotchman, Bradley, the DH situation, Eric Byrnes…
You can’t fill out half of your offensive/defensive roster with educated gambles. Well you can, but I doubt that’s what Jack wants to do.
I think he’d prefer to find underappreciated talent and build through his system, either with that system producing legit talent for the M’s or producing players that can be dealt for legit talent.
I think in a couple years Jack will have this roster in a place where we won’t need to gamble on guys recapturing success from 2-3 years ago like a Kotchman, Bradley, Sweeney, Byrnes.
Rudy4three - June 6, 2010
I wouldn't put Bradley in that group, I think we were expecting to get Milton-like production and nothing more.
And we also did go out and get Cliff Lee.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
And Chone Figgins.
Many people agreed we had a great offseason just because of those two guys and Bradley to an extent.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
It was a great offseason, but my point was that this roster and farm system
was terrible when Bavasi left, and not even a handful of really excellent moves by Jack have put this team in a good position to make postseason. As I said, I’m looking forward to when Jack has all his people in place and that likely won’t happen for a couple more years.
Rudy4three - June 7, 2010
For sure.
It was sounding to me like you weren’t liking Jack’s gambles on those players this year is all and that there were too many of them and not enough good moves.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
I recognized that he was limited in regards to payroll after the Lee aquisition.
He had to take gambles. None of them have worked out, but that happens sometimes.
I’m just looking forward to when he doesn’t have to gamble with half the everyday lineup. When there are internal options who can come up and play well, or he has the system at a level where we can actually go out and make good trades (like the Lee one).
I’ve been happy with everything Jack has done with the exception fo the Morrow deal (I never like dealing young hard throwing starting pitching for relievers, even if you think you have a relief ace coming back) and signing Josh Fields.
Overall though he’s done a very good job. Just looking forward to the future when he doesn’t have to cross his fingers on guys like Bradley, Kotchman, Byrnes, etc..
Rudy4three - June 7, 2010
Yeah, but Yohermyn also came in the deal and he's 21 years old and not playing too badly.
There’s hope yet.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
Bradley has not been good this year. He wasn't good last year either.
So yes it was a bit of an educated gamble that he would be a legit middle of the order bat for this team, given how he performed a season ago.
We gambled that he would 1)Be healthy 2)Not lose his mind 3)split the difference between his 2008 season and 2009 seasons
He has missed some games due to injury, he missed two weeks with mental issues, and his offensive production has not been good this year.
Rudy4three - June 7, 2010
The only reason we got Milton Bradley was because we got rid of Carlos Silva and there was a chance he was going to play well.
I’ve never understood the Milton Bradley “Middle of the order bat” hype considering how long he’s been in the league and how he’s usually good but not great. We wouldn’t have traded for him if it wasn’t for the fact that we were swapping bad contracts.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
I'm not complaining about that deal. The only thing I'm pointing out is that while it
was a salary swap, we went into the season needing Bradley to perform at a high level in order to contend for postseason. Getting Bradley wasn’t a gamble. Needing him to be the big RBI bat in the middle of the order was a gamble. However, as I pointed out above, we had some payroll constraints that forced us to gamble that Milton, Kotchman, and the aging DH platoon would be productive run producers.
Rudy4three - June 7, 2010
I think it's too early to judge whether Bradley's been worth it or not.
He still has over a year and a half left.
Mariner John - June 7, 2010
Bradley posted an above average wOBA while battling injuries and the media in Chicago last year
seattlebruin - June 7, 2010
He provided very little value to Chicago last season and hasn't provided much
yet for us. It’s only been 1/3 of the season, but he hasn’t helped the M’s.
Rudy4three - June 7, 2010
And Theo Epstein let him walk for nothing!
Which just goes to show you even the smart guy GMs blow it.
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
Underwhelming move.
At least it’s change where change is needed (assuming Carp becomes the regular 1st basemen and Kotch goes to the bench or gets DFA’d). I have a feeling the organization is looking elsewhere for a first basemen. I was pretty underwhelmed with getting Kotch in the first place, but I saw that if he lived up to his potential, he might actually be something good. Guess not.
Sometimes I’ve played Devil’s Advocate in my head and wondered what would have happened if we made that 3-way trade with Boston and SD, and we had Adrian Gonzalez on our team…
seiferguy - June 6, 2010
MAGICARP IS BACK!
bagsflyfree - June 6, 2010
It's not very effective
wetzelcoal - June 6, 2010
It has NO effect!
killer_ewok18 - June 6, 2010
Yeah, well, technically moving from AAA to MLB is an evolution of sorts...
I can’t fucking wait for him to ravage Arlington!
OceanBird - June 6, 2010
Boy I hope he doesn't struggle at the plate
Nick S - June 6, 2010
Maybe he'll make a big SPLASH
killer_ewok18 - June 6, 2010
Name puns are never ever going to die, are they.
the other side - June 6, 2010
Not while Snell still lives.
MT Olson - June 7, 2010
Splash is the only move Magicarp knows until he evolves into Gyarados
bluemax - June 7, 2010
No it learns tackle at level 15
I Lick Squirrels - June 7, 2010
Hopefully he evolves and we get 40 home runs
Crystal for DH - June 7, 2010
Hey, if we're gonna talk about a HR-hitting 1B-man who can't field
no one can compare to Dick Stuart, one of the most entertaining players ever.
God I would have loved to have seen him play first with Sam McDowell pitching. That would have been… eternal.
ignacio - June 6, 2010
Yeah!
Scruffy Lefty - June 6, 2010
You just beat me to it.
Since no one else had said it, I was going to point out that this Carp promotion seems fishy.
katal - June 6, 2010
I'm finding it hard to scale back my skepticism.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
I've got to say I like this move. I'm hooked.
the other side - June 6, 2010
While the issue has been discussed above, my greatest concern about this move is Carp's defense.
While I know it’s only first base, the guy has definitely shown a tendency to look like a fish out of water.
katal - June 6, 2010
Betcha a fin he looks worse at first than Kotchman does
msb - June 6, 2010
Well, we're talking Casey "Major League Record" Kotchman here.
Carp would have a whale of a time living up to his standard.
katal - June 6, 2010
Just for the record,
I’m not reccing this and this only because whales aren’t fish.
Faux - June 7, 2010
I'm sure he didn't do it on porpoise.
JAH - June 7, 2010
He's just trolling
Kermit. - June 7, 2010
Do I do anything else anymore?
Faux - June 7, 2010
Well played sir
d0nkey - June 7, 2010
God, the fish puns alone are good reason not to call him up
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
Is this going to lead to a LL Fishing day?
OceanBird - June 6, 2010
.
msb - June 6, 2010
I may be showing my lameness, but that would be awesome.
We should do it!
BrettJMiller - June 7, 2010
Hell yeah.
the other side - June 7, 2010
You accidentally included the word 'not' in this comment.
For what it’s worth…
BigR - June 6, 2010
I can see that the subject of Carp just causes you to flounder a lot...
eponymous_coward - June 6, 2010
I can only bream of making a pun that good.
Eyeball Kid - June 7, 2010
Just 12 wins in a row and we're back to being a .500 team!
RustyJohn - June 6, 2010
Huh
Shannon is guessing that Sweeney is heading to the DL to make room for Carp.
BrianL - June 6, 2010
That makes more sense to me
I would also guess that Kotchman has exactly as many days left to turn things around as Sweeney will have on the DL.
morrow - June 6, 2010
Alright, that does make more sense.
Carp can be the backup first baseman, hopefully meaning we never see Tui there again, and can pinch-hit.
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
I'd like to see Tui and Rob Johnson play more often
to see if we can set modern day records for passed balls and errors. I think Tui had his 6th error of the season today- if he were a full-time player he could easily reach Russ Davis realms of fielding suckiness.
As for Mr. Johnson- fun fact- he has 16 career passed balls- about half of what Victor Martinez has in 1/6th the number of games.
RustyJohn - June 6, 2010
Ayup!
Okay then.
Jeff Sullivan - June 6, 2010
Hmmmmmm.
@ shannondrayer Mike Carp appears to be on his way up. Guessing Sweeney is heading to the DL with the bad back…
msb - June 6, 2010
Eliezar has killed people for less than that Jeff.
the other side - June 6, 2010
I totally want to see him play shortstop now
Jeff Nye - June 6, 2010
I want an Alfonzo/Bradley DP combo.
abender20 - June 6, 2010
Isn't having Carp and Kotchman on the same roster a bit superfluous?
It’s almost as bad as Sweeney/Griffey.
tait644 - June 6, 2010
It would be if for the remainder of the season.
However, it can be assumed that this pairing will last about, oh say, 10-15 days. I infer that one of them will not be here once Sweeney comes back.
Hopefulmsfan - June 7, 2010
No it's not nearly that bad
Poochie - June 7, 2010
Not as bad because they both play the field.
It allows you more opportunities to put Saunders in left more often with Bradley at DH and Carp at 1B.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
It's somewhat redundant, but they're both actual baseball players still.
Jeff Nye - June 7, 2010
Sometimes I wonder what this year would have been like if Jack had been given the same budget as 2008.
It certainly seems like he was trying to but together a lot of bargain basement players to fill out the roster.
I remember right after the winter meetings, after the Cliff Lee trade, thinking wow, they still have ~15 million to spend. Visions of Orlando Hudson, Vlad or Jim Thome. Oh and another starting pitcher.
Obviously, the constraints Jack was working within meant non of that was remotely possible. But going into this season, it felt like my original imagining of the team was still valid. I didn’t see Kotchman and Byrnes as the only possible moves, but just as nice buy low pickups. Diamonds in the rough. Now it seems painfully obvious we were splicing in scrap parts.
It sucks when you realize your expectations were too high, not that your team was just underperforming.
stredarts - June 7, 2010
Its a bad sign that when I saw it was Sweeney going on the DL
I instantly thought about Wak putting Carp at DH and continuing to run Bradley out to LF… sigh
And stredarts – the team is underperforming, with a few key position players and a few bullpen arms just not putting up numbers that we expected (numbers that are not outlandish, but are based on analyses of career numbers and averages. I don’t think .500 ball was too high of an expectation, and 85 wins is barely above .500.
NWade - June 7, 2010
I just keep thinking about the new DA
Dustin Ackley that is. Did he not play first base and outfield in college? Now they want him to play second which made sense with Lopez there. Now with the Figgy Lopi swap and the dead bat at first should he not be back at first? He’s been on fire the last 10 games batting .483 yeah I know its double A.
jbpalm - June 7, 2010
He's more valuable if he can play the middle infield
Jeff Sullivan - June 7, 2010
Yeah, you can't be that short-sighted. There is a good chance that when Ackley really
starts to become a valuable player for us, both Lopez and Figgins won’t even be here.
Rudy4three - June 7, 2010
Peaple need to be realistic with Ackley or you are going to get your heart broken.
Edgar for Pres - June 7, 2010
If he doesn't hit .400 and make me forget the name Stephen Strasburg I will be devastated
lemonverbena - June 7, 2010
Given the wealth of evidence at our disposal
College career, scouting reports, current pro performance – I don’t think it is unrealistic to expect Ackley to be a ML-average player, at the least.
tait644 - June 7, 2010
certainly worthy of the #2 pick in the draft.
Gekko Mojo - June 7, 2010
I'm fine with that statement
I think Ackley should easily become a league average player. Expecting him to hit for a BA of 300 and OBP of 400 seems like a prevailing feeling and that is tough to do for any good player.
Edgar for Pres - June 7, 2010
I will be satisfied if he is a non-bust and a HOF superstar franchise player doesn't emerge from the bottom of the first round.
Unless it’s Nick Franklin.
the other side - June 7, 2010
I don't see it as being short-sighted.
I see it as being positive, people and players develop at different levels/speeds. Is there some sort of standard that says a player needs to be in the minors for 2,3,4+ years? I’m not saying he is ready today or that he’ll be ready by the end of the year but he could be.
jbpalm - June 7, 2010
Why would you waste your best prospect at first when he can probably handle second?
seattlebruin - June 7, 2010
Nobody expects Ackley to be in the minors for more than two years.
But he played first base out of necessity because of Tommy John surgery. His skillset at the plate plays best if he’s a middle infielder because there are still questions if he’ll ever hit more than 15-20 homers a year. When the time comes, we’ll figure out what to do with Lopez, and Chone will move to the third.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
An accelerated schedule for a prospect who's ready for it is fine.
Moving them away from a premium defensive position to do it is not fine.
Jeff Nye - June 7, 2010
I guess I'm happier about this than most
Carp reaaaally struggled in May, which pull his numbers down quite a bit. He’s the same hitter he was last year, but last year he was red hot in April/May and tailed off down the stretch. That doesn’t sound encouraging, but he’s actually a pretty good natural hitter that a lot in the org think has untapped potential. Yes, yes, that sounds EXACTLY like what people have been saying about Kotchman for years (and it is), but I think this is a move worth making.
I guess it’s easier to say this now that we know it doesn’t mean a Kotchman DFA. In any event, it’s kind of amazing the esteem that some in Tacoma hold Carp. There are those who think he’s as good a natural hitting talent as anyone on the club, and while that’s not saying much, I understand why it’s Carp who’s getting his 2nd call-up. As disappointing as it may be to rely on a 1.5-2 WAR first baseman, the M’s are no longer trying to go from 85 wins to 90. They’re trying to claw their way back to respectability, and a move like this can help with that.
marc w - June 7, 2010
I'm intrigued by what he could be at the plate
I am saddened at the thought of going from Kotchman’s D to Carp’s reputation of D. In the end, this is all Tui’s fault.
Matthew - June 7, 2010
Very well said.
I don’t think Carp’s actual D is as terrible as the reputation, but there’s no doubt he’s going to be giving away runs in short order (Kotch’s D has looked quite good recently).
I just don’t get Tui. Spent much of ‘09 working on his defense, and getting some positive comments from scouts (or at least much less negative comments), and now in ’10 it’s worse than it’s ever been. Probably spent the offseason working on pitch recognition after his K troubles and hey, defense is apparently NOT like riding a bike.
marc w - June 7, 2010
Boy was that ever productive work on pitch recognition!!
Should have spent a little more on the MLB tapes, Matt. You mastered the Triple-A series, but that’s not cutting it.
Matthew - June 7, 2010
I'm jealous that the White Sox SBN site gets to discuss their fire sale.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
Give it 4 days.
Fuckmikereilly - June 7, 2010
So after we sweep the Rangers......
Shit.
the other side - June 7, 2010
I'm amazed that Carp coming up generated this much discusssion.
I guess it shows you how desparate everyone is for something to discuss besides how horrible this team looked over the weekend.
Thingray - June 7, 2010
Most of the discussion bordered on speculation that Kotchman would be released.
If it was known about Sweeney, there wouldn’t be as much to talk about.
Kenneth Arthur - June 7, 2010
We could always talk about volcanoes again.
JY - June 7, 2010
I'm always up for that.
Thingray - June 7, 2010
Every time this comes up the Friends episode flashes through my mind. Where Joey read the
Where Joey read the V volume of the encyclopedia
Kermit. - June 7, 2010
"They told me I'm going to play,'' Carp said. "That I'm here to play.''
via Baker.
JonBBT - June 7, 2010
So
Carp is up for Sweeney, but at the expense of Kotchman. All right!
Jeff Sullivan - June 7, 2010
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