I'll say right now that, when Felix struggles, so does my mood. So much of my identity as a Mariner fan is tied up in Felix that I can't stand it when he underachieves. It whisks me away to a time, a bad time, a time when things were so much worse than they are for us now. I hate that time. I thought that we'd put it behind us. I never like dropping in for a visit.
With that said, given the loss tonight and the matchups the next two days, I think it's time for all of us to come to understand a certain difference. And that difference is the difference between hope, and realistic hope.
As Mariner fans - as sports fans - we'll always have hope. We'll always have hope that we can win a game, until we lose it. We'll always have hope that we can make the playoffs, until we miss them. And we'll always have hope that we'll be better in the future, until the future sucks. Hope is as simple as being able to envision success, and then wishing it will happen. Wherever there is possibility, there is hope.
Realistic hope is a whole other kettle of fish. Realistic hope doesn't exist when the probably is greater than zero. Realistic hope exists when the probability is above some lower threshold of significance. If the M's are behind 10-1, for example, there'll be hope (just one grand slam, and then maybe some baserunners...), but there won't be realistic hope (we never go deep and we never get baserunners). If the M's are behind 4-3, there'll be both.
We're to the point now in the season that we're approaching that threshold with regard to winning the division. Or maybe we've already passed it by. I don't know. I'm not sure which game is The Game that makes all the difference. But what I do know is that, while each of us can still imagine the M's making a run and the rest of the division stumbling, the longer we sit way down in the basement, the longer the odds become. At some point, we're praying for a miracle. Maybe not a resurrection-level miracle, but a miracle in the way that making it all the way home from the mountains with the gas light on is a miracle. It isn't impossible, but you'd really rather not be in that situation in the first place.
And as we all know, no one wants to be left hoping for a miracle. 1995 was a magnificent thing that happened to this organization and its fan base, but in a lot of ways, it was also a disaster, in that it established in a lot of minds that giving up is never an option. So many people always want to try and recapture that magic, but the thing that made it magic in the first place is that it was borderline impossible. It was magic because the M's would never in a thousand years do it again. You have to be realistic. You're always free to cling on to some last shreds of hope, but in your heart you have to possess an understanding of the situation.
I can't tell if we've been reduced to hoping for a miracle yet, but if we haven't, we're damn close. Closer than we ever thought we'd be in early June, and certainly closer than we ever wanted to be. Can they do it? Sure, they can do it. Will they do it? I don't have the answer, but I'd be more confident in saying 'no' than I've been all season long. It looks like it's time to get realistic. Both for us as fans, and for them as an organization. 2010 almost certainly isn't going to be the Mariners' year. And with that fate all but sealed, it's about time to turn the focus to making 2011 a year to remember.
1 recs | 83 comments
But will Cliff Lee be in 2011 with us =(
Slurvey - June 9, 2010
And here I was hoping you'd hold us and tell us it would all be OK
calim - June 9, 2010
Atleast we have a bright future
as cliche as it is to say on this blog, it could be alot worse, we could be the royals. Plus, we actually have some really interesting prospects, with Pineda, Robles and Triunfel being some of the best and youngest players in AA. And Nick Franklin! Hooray for a highly underrated scouting and drafting team.
E2ESQUARE - June 9, 2010
Don't forget.
Dustin Ackley!
Hopefulmsfan - June 9, 2010
I was noting ALL that the M's AAA, AA and two A ball clubs were over .500
Years and years ago, Bill James called that out as a good sign for an organization (it makes sense, better talent = more wins against your opposition).
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
It's not very often I'm able to pick a game that truly puts me over that threshold.
But this game was it. I figured we’d win and lose the next two and just keep doing what we’ve been doing while gaining no ground. Tonight, I couldn’t even get excited for a Felix start. And our offense let Colby Lewis off the hook and I didn’t care. I’ve officially let go of 2010. 2011’s gonna be so awesome.
Hopefulmsfan - June 9, 2010
I hate that picture.
I Lick Squirrels - June 9, 2010
I look at talent levels and focus on hitting, and oh boy we suck.
But then refocus on pitching and defense and there’s a sliver of hope. Three sides to a triangle, stretch them or shorten them, the end result is still 360 degrees, right? And our division sucks. But then there’s that thing about counting on your opponents to fail, or however it goes… hrmph. Shit or get off the pot, suck on that one Sun Tzu
Kermit. - June 9, 2010
There are only 180 degrees in a triangle
:(
Jackle Mackle - June 9, 2010
We're screwed then.
JLProck - June 9, 2010
External, just because I am an outside of the box kind of guy.
:)
Kermit. - June 9, 2010
Wait a minute, wouldn't you turn something around by turning 180 degrees?
PLAYOFFS
Jackle Mackle - June 9, 2010
Fucking brilliant that.
the other side - June 9, 2010
But aren't there
360 degrees in a (baseball) diamond? Who needs triangles anyway?
Cepstrum - June 9, 2010 via mobile
Don't you mean PI radians?
stredarts - June 9, 2010
It's a shame the season ended up like this.
The team looked pretty good on paper. Unfortunately, there was always the issue of volatility with the roster. Aside from Cliff Lee the roster has seen pretty much all of the risks and none of the rewards. Throw in making Griffey and Sweeney the DH platoon you have the sizzle on the steak of failure.
This season also serves as a reminder that we have ways to go before the team develops a strong foundation.
ThundaPC - June 9, 2010
2011?
With the budget situation and the less than stellar free agent class I’m thinking 2012. Especially with Lopez, JaWil, Bradley and possibly Snell coming back. I would be a lot more enthusiastic for 2011 if the M’s could somehow rid themselves of JaWil and Lopez before August 1st.
Jack Swan - June 9, 2010
JaWil.... really?
Kaorikaze - June 9, 2010
Eh, I'm OK with this
seattlebruin - June 9, 2010
I'm going to start calling you SeaBru
pdb - June 9, 2010
DaFuk
Aaron Campeau - June 9, 2010
Oh yes.
abender20 - June 9, 2010
Bring in DaNoise
BRING IN DAFUK
pdb - June 9, 2010
if you assume we dont keep Lee but retain all the other pieces we have,
I agree that 2011 doesn’t look all that good. However, we’ll have an offseason to work out solutions to the ’pen, 1B, C, and LF/DH. 3B and SS could also get flipped. Its all unkown which is what will make the next few months interesting.
Gekko Mojo - June 9, 2010 via mobile
I hope Lee brings back a touted C or SS.
If one of those is all he brings back I’ll be happy.
Jack Swan - June 9, 2010
I'm still holding out hope that some time in the next couple of weeks Brian Cashman smokes crack and offers Nick Swisher and Cervelli in exchange for Cliff Lee.
RustyJohn - June 9, 2010
I don't think I would do this if I'm Seattle.
Swisher’s contract is up in a year, and I think we’re still hoping Adam Moore is capable of hitting as good as Cervelli would. In fact Moore has the much better minor league career. Not sure how they compare defensively. I think if we send Cliff Lee we’re going to want a more long term solution.
dkulich - June 9, 2010
Do you think we're going to get a lot for a 3 month rental?
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
I think we could get better than Swisher and Cervelli.
I think I’d rather do the draft picks than that, is kind of what I was going for.
dkulich - June 9, 2010
Montero please.
Mariner Melee - June 9, 2010
You might get draft picks if Swisher walks.
Would there be better one year options out there on the open market? Or would we be reduced to dumpster diving for first basemen again?
I don’t think I’d reject an offer for a useful player for 2011 out of hand. Compensatory draft picks do diddly-squat to help the team in 2011.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
As far as LF/DH
The Saunders/Bradley combo should be fine, maybe with a cheap RH DH thrown in.
As for SS, the question is whether Wilson’s defense really fell off the cliff, or was it just a sample size fluke.
Rollo Tomasi - June 9, 2010
Both Lopez and Snell have team options.
Matthew - June 9, 2010
If Lopez continues to play defense like he has and hits like his last few years, which he's showing signs of doing again, he's better than league average.
abender20 - June 9, 2010
Is Lopez a part of the team that contends in 2012 and beyond though?
I don’t think he will be so the sooner he is gone the happier I’ll be.
Jack Swan - June 9, 2010
Four win players for $4.5M are always welcome
seattlebruin - June 9, 2010
But he's Loafie
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
How old is he now?
26 or something?
Thingray - June 9, 2010
Younger than Rob Johnson OR Mattl Clement!
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
Do you mean Jeff Clement?
Thingray - June 9, 2010
Him too
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
He's relatively cheap and an asset if he hits. If he remains cheap, the team can spend that money elsewhere.
abender20 - June 9, 2010
I hate feeling like this in early June. There are over 100 games to play.
Why do we have to suck so much? Why couldn’t Felix pitch more like Felix? Why is Rob Johnson on this team? We finally had a plan and but the plan didn’t work. The baseball gods hate us.
TrustBaseball - June 9, 2010
I agree about hating this happening by June.
(I’m writing from a mobile device. Please excuse typos.)
It’s what makes baseball much less fun to follow, especially compared to the NFL (to me, at least). It seems that, unlike in the NFL and NBA, the season ends far too early for too many MLB teams. I suppose that’s partly because supposed parity in the NFL (and the fact you only have to beat three teams to make the playoffs) and the fact that the NBA allows more than half of its teams onto the post-season.
This is somewhat of an aside, but I have two questions:
1. How can you bear to watch/follow the M’s anymore in 2010, and
2. Should the number of playoff teams be expanded to be more like the NFL (12) or NBA (16) instead of 8?
Sorry for being so cynical. It’s just that I’d rather follow a team that has a chance than win championships; I’d take consistent compelling seasons over a few championships now and then anyday. I said this same thing on the Portland Trailblazers’ blog, and of course, most people disagreed, as I’m sure you here at LL will too. I’m just weird that way.
Cepstrum - June 9, 2010 via mobile
I can still follow the team as long as smart decisions are being made.
When the bad decisions near what I like to call the 2008 Threshold, then I’ll consider not watching on TV and not going to games. Until then, I’ll continue to watch and follow along.
And I mostly like the exclusivity of the MLB playoffs.
JLProck - June 9, 2010
Answers to your questions
1. Because it’s baseball, and baseball is fun to watch. If not for the Mariners as a team, then for individual performers and for other teams.
2. No. Expanding the playoffs so that more mediocre teams get in is not the solution – making the Mariners better so they can get to the playoffs is.
pdb - June 9, 2010
Agreed on point #1 in a big way.
Sec 108 - June 9, 2010
Ditto. I was in awe of the sheer physical potential of Mike Stanton yesterday.
The kid looked like Adonis put on a baseball field. He’s 20.
TheBishop - June 9, 2010
I admit that except for the fact that Felix was pitching, when I came home and the score was 7-1 I was a bit relieved.
If we had won, with two wins in a row over the Rangers, there I’d be crawling back to belief. Fuck that, it’s gone, it’s over. I don’t want to lose ever, but when I come home and it’s 7-1, I have no control over the score and I can say “I knew it”
I guess the best news I can give myself is that next year we will have either Cliff Lee, 3 high draft picks in a strong draft class, or a high draft pick and whatever we got for Cliff Lee in July.
Kenneth Arthur - June 9, 2010
What fans tend to forget about 1995
Yeah it was great that we had a miraculous comeback in 95, but you’re right that a comeback like that can never happen again. Because most fans forget about this part— the Mariners weren’t the only reason we won that year. We were only in that position because the Angels pulled off one of the biggest second half tank jobs in MLB history. Their loss was probably more significant to baseball history than our win.
999 times out of 1000, the Mariners go on a hot streak in 95 and it doesn’t make one bit of difference.
Anyone expecting that sort of thing to happen again (especially this year) just doesn’t really know their baseball history. Fun story, sure, go Mariners! 95 was great but it was a total fluke.
Building a successful baseball franchise is a lot like checkers in the movie Wargames. Listen to Joshua. Learn futility. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play.
MarioMangler - June 9, 2010
Crap that should be tic tac toe, not checkers
80’s movie recall fail
MarioMangler - June 9, 2010
1995 wasn't a miracle.
There. I said it.
You know how many games out of being in the playoffs we were on the morning of August 2nd, when we were 13 back in the division? Two. Two games back with 55 games left to play.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=1995-08-02
You know how many games out of being in the playoffs we were on the morning of August 24th, when we were 11 and a half back of the Angels? Four. Four games back with 35 left to play.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=1995-08-23
It was an amazing end to the season and a wonderful story to beat the Angels for the division title, but the M’s were still in the playoff hunt even before the Angels tanked it.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
It was a miracle that they won the division
Not made the playoffs
You forget that in 1995 there was a stigma attached,a t least amongst players, to being a wild card winner and not a division winner. That’s why that comeback meant so much and that’s why there is no banner for the 2000 team.
Poochie - June 9, 2010
I just cannot help it but in retrospect I think our season died before it started.
Griffey showed up out of shape and unable to play but did not ask to be put on the DL. Garko played his way off of the roster. Sweeney hacked his way onto the roster. But above all else right here is where our season all fell apart in my opinion.
Sec 108 - June 9, 2010
If anything, I would have thought that too,
but also in retrospect, we didn’t really miss Lee at all in April.
Our season fell apart when Cliff Lee came back and the 3-14 record we’ve posted against the AL West starting with that day.
Matthew - June 9, 2010
Exactly. April was a minor miracle.
No one made contact, Cliff Lee was hurt, Bedard was re-hurting himself, RRS was imploding…. and the team was .500.
May killed this team, even though the hitters made contact, Cliff Lee was back (and amazing), and Fister continued his high-wire act. Unbelievable.
marc w - June 9, 2010
From a function standpoint I agree with you.
I still think Lee’s first start on April 30th will be our turning point game for 2010.
That being said, the two things that killed us out of the gate were starting pitching and offense. I think our pitching could only have been better with Lee in there and Wak having the flexibility to drop RRS or Snell.
Sec 108 - June 9, 2010
I think we counted too much on people that were high-risk / high reward.
But we knew that coming in. The odds of finding a Branyan, Gutti, or Aardsma (last year at least) every year are pretty slim. We need to remember that this was a horrible team as recently as 2008, and it will take some time to fully rebuild from the ground up.
Thingray - June 9, 2010
I was looking at the standings yesterday
seeing us in fourth place, 7.5 games back – and yet I was confindent that we had a better chance to win the division than Toronto does with theirs. Even though they were also in fourth place, but only 4.5 games back.
If we have hope, it’s because we don’t think the teams ahead of us are that good.
Llewdor - June 9, 2010
Toronto
is near the top of the league in homeruns hit and near the top of the league in pitching strike outs, that must be an exciting team to watch
fortyniners - June 9, 2010
They aren't, but they don't have the baggage of being 12 under .500 to get over.
I just don’t see this roster playing well for months at a time as it’s currently constructed, and that’s what we have to do to get over .500. They might play OK, but I see it like this: the ~85 win true talent projection depended on a number of things that just aren’t coming true.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
I seems like the 78 win worst case scenario is being played out like a movie script though.
A really unbelievable horror movie.
Jack Swan - June 9, 2010
I don't think 78 wins is our worst case scenario
killer_ewok18 - June 9, 2010
I agree.
If we dump Lee, whooosh go some of our wins.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
I wonder how different the 2011 Mariners well look.
I just hope beyond all hope it doesn’t include Rob Johnson.
Mariner Melee - June 9, 2010
At some point, you have to think the front office notices the only reason Rob Johnson is on the roster is pitchcalling.
And that EVERY other aspect of his game is pretty much crap.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
Does he really call a great game though?
I seem to recall that last year a lot of the pitches were called from the dugout. I think he’s here mostly because he’s a “good soldier”, and because we didn’t have any real options besides him at the start of the season. Plus they might have thought that his bat would come around after he had his surgeries to fix his multiple medical issues.
Thingray - June 9, 2010
There's nothing in his minor league record that indicates he would be anything more than a no-hit backup in MLB.
Thinking otherwise is pretty severe wishful thinking.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
If he was calling the pitches last night,
he doesn’t call a very good game.
killer_ewok18 - June 9, 2010
I don't even think he calls a good game.
My guess, and no I have nothing to back this up, is that Rob Johnson is a ego stroker. He makes the pitchers happy because he is there own personal brown-nose buddy.
Just a guess, but nothing else makes sense. He doesn’t help them win. I mean he lets ball after ball bounces between his balls, he doesn’t hit and therefore cost the pitcher run support, and even if he called a decent game, its nothing the pitcher can’t or wouldn’t decide for himself.
Dude is a black hole, he has to be an ego stroker, there is no other way he could be perceived as even helpful.
Mariner Melee - June 9, 2010
He's potentially decent as a backup.
Matthew - June 9, 2010
I do have a question about that though.
Do you believe (and don’t take this as sarcasm cause it’s an honest question) that Wak would ever use him as a back-up. The last 2 weeks he has been asking the pitchers who they want to throw to and they all pick Rob.
So as long as Wak and the Pitchers all have man crushes on the guy, is he ever going to be used as a back-up?
Mariner Melee - June 9, 2010
They all had man crushes on Junior, too, and he got benched
If the Mariners had a guy who was clearly superior to Rob, he’d play more. We don’t have that guy.
Jeff Sullivan - June 9, 2010
Yeah.
The vacuum at C is a pretty serious problem when combined with the M’s having very close to nothing at SS and 1B (Yes, I know, Paperboy: I still think that’s SSS), and the Milton Bradley/Griffdawg axis of suck.
You can survive one position at replacement level, maybe two, but three or four starts being a real problem.
I think the M’s in 2011 pretty much have to consider Wilson and Bradley Bedard-level players on the roster: “hey, if they contribute, great, but at this point, given their injury history, we need to have a VERY good backup plan”, as well as invest in C and 1B. They didn’t really do a good job of this in the offseason.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
Think we're already there
Jeff Sullivan - June 9, 2010
The walks dropping off post April
and the still tragic defense led me to inserting ‘potential’.
I think his tangible ceiling is that of an average hitting catcher and below average defense. He might already be there with the bat but the defense… oh god the defense
Matthew - June 9, 2010
Needs to actually play decent defense to be a decent backup.
I find it pretty hard to believe no-hit, decent glove Cs aren’t something pretty close to replacement level talent. Maybe I am thinking the minors are like BUll Durham or something, though.
eponymous_coward - June 9, 2010
So does Doumit play 1B or what?
Mariner Melee - June 9, 2010
Rob Johnson, of course, always liked being an ass.
Janic - June 9, 2010
Being as I have cause lots of trouble with this myself, I'll let you know.
Awesome picture! But way to big, 300 pixel height limit
8)
Mariner Melee - June 9, 2010
That's not a centaur
killer_ewok18 - June 9, 2010
It is not.
TheBishop - June 9, 2010
You just wanted a reason to say centaur.
the other side - June 9, 2010
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