There's a common response to games like this, and games like last night's. "Just like they drew it up," people say. Maybe not so much with the four home runs, but certainly the part where the Mariners rode their two aces into The Stadium and beat the crap out of the Yankees. That was the design. That was how the Mariners - these Mariners - were supposed to get rolling and keep on making noise into October.
Of course, that isn't going to happen. All the hoping in the world isn't going to make it happen. The M's are 9-3 in their last 12 games, and they've still lost a game and a half in the standings. It's over. It's over, and that's why every conversation we have about Cliff Lee has to acknowledge the fact that any day could end up being his last in a Mariner uniform.
It's enough to make people upset. I mean, we all enjoy seeing the Mariners play better baseball and strut confidently around the Bronx, but it's hard to shake that what-if feeling. The M's are now 19-18 since the middle of May. Their entire season was slaughtered by a three-week slump, and when you see them playing like they're playing now, it frustrates you that they couldn't find this level earlier. It frustrates all of us. The ability was always there. It's just that the results didn't start showing up until it was too late, and that drives everybody bonkers. It's a missed opportunity.
And I think this is why people are so loath to see Lee get traded. No one's looking forward to it. No one's in a particular hurry to send Lee off through a hidden door in the bookcase that returns two or three mysterious young strangers. I imagine that, if you confronted most Mariners fans, they would understand that, rationally, it makes the most sense to trade him. Trading him is what's best for the organization, and at the end of the day what we care about is the organization's standing. And still, nobody really wants it.
And at least to me, it's because as long as Cliff Lee is here, I get to catch a glimpse of what a championship Mariners team could look like. Make no mistake: with these players, with these players on the roster right now, the Mariners could be champions. They have the talent to win a division, and they have the talent to roll through the playoffs. With Felix and Lee, the M's have marched into the Bronx and outscored the best team in baseball 14-4. There's no questioning this team's ceiling.
That's a rare glimpse. At no point did last year's Mariners really look like champions. They definitely didn't in 2008, nor did they in 2007, or 2006, or 2005, or 2004. We could argue about 2003 and 2002. But the point is that it's been a long time. The M's have been somewhere between bad and mediocre going on seven years, now. That's nothing to fans of the Pirates or Royals, but this isn't a pissing competition. Just because they've had it worse doesn't mean we haven't had it bad. Ichiro's the last remaining player from the most recent Mariners team that looked like a title contender. It has been a while.
I'm rather fond of this feeling. No matter their record, I still like seeing these M's go up against good opponents. They're generally competitive games, and they allow me to space out. Sometimes when I tune into a game, I try to forget the season's greater context. I try to forget it because by forgetting it, I can pretend that this team is going places.
Watching the Mariners right now makes me feel like I'm watching a successful version of the Mariners. A dangerous version of the Mariners. Maybe not so much when it's Doug Fister or RRS on the hill, but when they're rolling the front of the rotation, it's hard not to get swept away. A game like tonight's just leaves you smiling and thinking "man, this team is good." The Mariners are doing that.
And Cliff Lee is a big part of it. Maybe - probably - the biggest part. Felix is great and all, and tonight he was spectacular, but what really makes it work is that they go on back-to-back days. It brings this air of confidence and invincibility that you wouldn't get from pairing Felix with most anyone else. What we've seen from the Mariners throwing Lee and Felix at the Yankees on consecutive days is almost enough to make you start talking trash.
Trade Lee and that feeling is gone. It doesn't matter what comes back. With Lee, we glimpse the Mariners as champions. Without Lee, the blinds are pulled down, and we're left wondering what might lie behind. It makes this situation extraordinarily tough. I know what's best, and I know it's inevitable. But what I'm feeling now is something I haven't felt about the Mariners in a long, long time. I am in no hurry to stick that feeling in Lee's back pocket and send them both off to wherever they go.
With Cliff Lee, the Mariners stomped the Yankees. With Felix Hernandez, the Mariners stomped the Yankees. This team really could've been something. Savor what you can while you can.
-----
I watched this game from a distance in a bar, which is great for the live viewing experience, but lousy for purposes of coming up with game notes later on. All that needs to be said is that, with a Milton Bradley home run, a Russell Branyan home run, two Michael Saunders home runs, and a dominant King Felix complete-game win, this game was one Mark Teixeira double and one lost pop-up away from being about the most perfect game I could ever imagine. God bless this day.
9 recs | 60 comments
What happened to Gutierrez?
Schuxu - July 1, 2010
Sick tummy.
Fuckmikereilly - July 1, 2010
Ok, I read it, just the flew. Puh...
Schuxu - July 1, 2010
What happened to Figgins?
Janic - July 1, 2010
It's Winds-day.
A very blustery day indeed.
CapSea - July 1, 2010
He's still there, it's just dark out.
I Lick Squirrels - July 1, 2010
Yeah! That's what I'm feeling!
Thanks for expressing it so perfectly. And now, with Bedard coming back, I don’t feel like rebuilding. I want to go out there and really kick some ass.
Mr.Phelps - July 1, 2010 via mobile
So depressing.
But good post.
M'sFanatic - July 1, 2010
My bad... good recap.
M'sFanatic - July 1, 2010
Felix is untouchable
He makes the Yankee lineup look the Seattle Mariners against a league average starter…
Stings don’t it.
Cliff Lee is phenomenal, but on nights like tonight I think Felix is the better pitcher. Lee won’t walk anyone (ever), but because he’s around the plate so much he always gives up a few hits. But when Felix is on like he was tonight, it would surprise no one to see him throw a perfect game against the Yankee lineup. He practically did it tonight. Christ, he is so unreasonably good.
E2ESQUARE - July 1, 2010
One of his most impressive starts ever.
Not far from a no-no or perfect game at all. The first two walks should have been called strikeouts, and obviously the sun double (for lack of a better term) shouldn’t have been there. Just Tex’s double. I was giddy watching Felix pitch tonight. It’s been awhile since he’s had that effect on me.
JonBBT - July 1, 2010
This was the best game I've ever seen Felix pitch. Absolutely amazing performance.
TrustBaseball - July 1, 2010
There is no better way to summarize these feelings.
It makes me so sad that in what is supposedly such a long season, 3 weeks really do matter. Why can’t we start over?
Hopefulmsfan - July 1, 2010
.
No one’s in a particular hurry to send Lee off through a hidden door in the bookcase that returns two or three mysterious young strangers.
This is a beautiful line. Thanks Jeff.
sammy - July 1, 2010
Actually, that's now exactly how I want Cliff to leave.
Is there a bookcase somewhere in Safeco?
Jeff Nye - July 1, 2010
Someday I will have a bookcase door in my house.
Someday.
JonBBT - July 1, 2010
Friend of mine in high school did.
It was good for smoking j’s and… Well that’s all really.
THolt - July 1, 2010 via mobile
I've been feeling so much better about the Mariners these past couple weeks.
Then I look at the standings and think, “Damn it, we’re STILL four games back of even OAKLAND?! Why’d we have to dig the hole so fucking deep?” And we dropped a game and a half while looking good? That little reminder managed to torpedo my small delusional hopes left over from this evening—fucking Texas. If only we could just keep him…
Xux - July 1, 2010
You know
I have been looking, not in depth mind you, at next years draft and then looking at who all the talking heads say would coming back in a deal for Cliff Lee, and I must say, I am not impressed. Yes I want to improve the overall franchise, minors included, to the best extent possible. And call me a bleeding heart optimist, but I am not ready to give up on this year. I don’t see the Rangers playing they have been playing all year long. And yes, I realize a 12 game stretch is an extremely small sample size, but the earlier distractions are gone. The Mariners got off to a better start last year but it was by no means mind blowing. I would just like to see Bedard come back and see what we have then. On top of that, unless we got two prospects back who could healthily contribute, I know wishful thinking, I would rather Dr. Z hold out for the draft picks when the two extra picks in next years highly college talent deep draft can provide quicker relief possibly than a stud in A ball. This is just how I feel, but I still have hope, its probably ill-advised hope, but hope none the less.
n.crees - July 1, 2010
The Rangers only have to play .500 to get to 90 wins.
We have to basically play .600+ ball the rest of the year to get to 90 wins, which isn’t that far off how we’ve played for the last 12 games.
eponymous_coward - July 1, 2010
Old-fashioned complete game wins
add to the (fleeting) glory of Cliff Lee-Felix Hernandez back-to-back. Pitching next to Lee is raising Felix’s game.
ignacio - July 1, 2010
Does anyone know the last time the Yankees were two-hit [or better]?
EnglishMariner - July 1, 2010
hmm
Verlander and Porcello both started 4 hit shutouts against them earlier this year. Dave Mlicki 1 hit them in the first subway series. :)
Halladay 1 hit them last September.
wobatus - July 1, 2010
I thought it would have been longer than that to be honest, with their line-up.
EnglishMariner - July 1, 2010
Good company
Halladay that is.
But it is likely about as hard to limit hits to the Royals than Yankees. In about the same number of plate appearances (3029 to 3027) the Royals have struck out 82 fewer times (417 to 499) as a team and have a .284 team average to the Yanks .272. The Yankee babip is .305, Royals .315, and Royals hit a few more grounders, but their expected babip is likely about the same.
wobatus - July 1, 2010
With these players on the roster...
Seven teams have taken series from the Yankees this year. The Mariners, Tigers, Mets, Blue Jays, Angels, Phillies, Rays. I suppose any of them could conceivably win a championship with the talent on their rosters today, but I think the only reason you can say the Mariners have as good a chance with their present squad as, say, the Jays, is because their division is usually more winnable.
Once in the playoffs, the M’s certainly have the 1-2 punch of aces to win. But they are 14 games back, 13 back in the wildcard race with 8 teams ahead of them, even the Royals by percentage points. You could almost as easily say that the Royals, well, maybe if they called up Gordon and Kila, could win the series with their current talent if Hochevar suddenly blossoms or if Mike Montgomery comes up and is a stud. Or, if Lee was traded to KC for Will Myer and Mike Montgomery, couldn’t KC say, hey, with Lee and Greinke as top of the rotation studs, the Mexecutioner closing, Butler, Gordon, Moustakas, Dejesus, Callaspo, Kila in the line-up, we can win the series? Actually, that sounds kinda plausible to me. But I am delusional sometimes.
Sure, a team with a pair of top notch starters has a shot if they can make the playoffs. But sustainable success requires a more talented core line-up, I think. The Angels won a series and are annual playoff contenders with some good pitchers, but usually no real ace (well, Weaver this year). I suppose if Figgins hadn’t started out cold, if Saunders got a little better at the k/bb rates, if Lopez hadn’t been so cold, if Branyan was on the team from the get go instead of Kotchman…but you are starting to talk about a lot of ifs.
It may seem like trading Lee is foregoing a possible series title next year (assuming he could be signed and damn the costs), or what “could” have been a title this year, but i think realistically the Mariners need additional talent throughout the roster, and either a trade for some young talent or letting him walk for additional draft picks while freeing up talent is actually better in the long run. Which I can see is acknowledged, but I don’t think you should dwell too much on what could have been. Think to the possible future, and a rotation of Felix, Pineda, Vargas…Mejia? With Reese Havens at 2nd or 3rd? OK, so I’m a Mets fan (trust me, most folks at amazin’ avenue don’t want to make that kind of trade, even though Lee could mean a world series this year for the Mets, and the Mets certainly could afford to pay him longer term or just let him walk for picks).
wobatus - July 1, 2010
You know
if the Dodgers or some team of that sort gets stupid — or maybe talks Lee into signing an extension — we could possibly end up with enough talent coming back not to regret the deal; and I realize that pitchers are undependable.
But man, I wish there was some way we could convince him to sign an extension here.
The Ancient Mariner - July 1, 2010
Larry Stone
throws some cold water on the warm feelings
msb - July 1, 2010
The Mariners would have to equal the greatest comeback in baseball history
So he’s saying it’s been done before . . .
Snuffleupagus - July 1, 2010
Obviously we need to sign Rabbit Maranville.
eponymous_coward - July 1, 2010
Mr. Jeff Sullivan is my favorite writer
The zeitgeist of M’s fandom perfectly reflected once again. Seriously, if the collected works of every Mariners-covering scribe vanished from the earth I would never notice. If someone scrubbed Lookout Landing from existence I would have to hunt them down and kill them.
And awwww, that photo. Lopez exiting the frame like we wish he had done years ago. Good Uncle Cliffy even more smiley than usual, so pleased with the performance of his young student. Crazy Bradley went yard and smiles while he goes down the line for victory high-fives. And King Felix grins with the satisfaction of pleasing a man whose goal is to walk zero batters in a season.
This season could have been so, so different. I hope I’m not too old to enjoy it when Seattle’s luck/karma/fortune finally swings the other direction.
lemonverbena - July 1, 2010 via mobile
Crazy stat.
On Tuesday Cliff Lee became the 3rd pitcher since the start of 2008 to throw 3 straight complete games (along with Halladay and Sabathia.)
Yesterday, Felix threw 9 innings for the 3rd straight time, only poor run support robbing him of his own 3 straight complete game streak. (And he is one out away from 4 straight 9 inning starts.)
Think not only of the fact that throwing 9 innings in 3 straight starts only happens about once a year in this era of baseball, but that Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee just did it in consecutive days.
People who prognosticated that the Mariners would win the West before the season because of having the best 1-2 in baseball weren’t wrong about the fact that this team is SERIOUSLY good with these two at the front of the rotation. Seriously good.
Kenneth Arthur - July 1, 2010
So, I wonder what Jack's thinking?
How good/MLB ready do the trade acquisitions have to be to make them more valuable than the draft picks? What kind of players does he want—a potential stud to replace Lee? A corner? A catcher?
And does holding on to Lee and building on the ‘surge’—no matter how ill fated it might be—help sell some meaningful tickets after the break?
diderot - July 1, 2010
I honestly would hate to be the one making this decision right now.
d0nkey - July 1, 2010
It might not be GMZ's fault he is holding onto Lee.
It takes two to tango and nobody has stepped up to be an adequate partner. And because we don’t know what is being offered, we can’t make any judgments on the value GMZ is looking for in return. For all we know, he hasn’t been offered anything. Most teams are only beginning to prepare for the trade deadline.
Wilder. - July 1, 2010
Z probably wants to win relatively soon with the contracts he's given out, and most draft picks where we're picking who have the real potential to make a significant impact are probably going to need like 4 years of development time
By that time Felix and Guti and Ichiro are probably gone or almost gone. That’s your contention core, and not taking advantage of it while we have it is probably a bad idea.
If we trade him, we’re likely to get a close to ML-ready, good prospect as a centerpiece with a couple other interesting players who are farther away. If you don’t get that offer for some reason, then you can just hold onto him, but somebody is probably going to give it up by the time the trade deadline rolls around if they aren’t already. It’s really a no-brainer decision, as much as it sucks to lose a big part of what’s making the team play good baseball right now.
OlSalty - July 1, 2010
-sigh-
2009 Mariners: 11-18 in May
2010 Mariners: 8-19 in May
Second verse, same as the first. A little bit louder and a little bit worse.
eponymous_coward - July 1, 2010
Additional fun fact.
Outside of May, the worst the team’s played in a month (since GMZ’s accession) was April of this year (13-14).
This is, of course, incredibly frustrating, because for two years in a row, a team that could have reasonably contended/stayed in the race based on actual talent/end of season record has been basically DOA for half the year because they’ve taken the collective gaspipe in May. So we’ve gotten decent baseball out of the deal, but no real late-season contention.
eponymous_coward - July 1, 2010
Make no mistake: with these players, with these players on the roster right now, the Mariners could be champions.
You can’t actually believe that. Felix pitched his best game as a Mariner last night. Let’s calm down a little.
m_b - July 1, 2010
Why can't we believe that?
If this Mariner team had played up to its collective projections up to now in 2010, they would/should be right near the top of the AL West, with a good chance at winning it. If this team were to get into the playoffs, with Felix and Lee at the top of the rotation, that’s the division series taken care of pretty much, and after that it’s a crapshoot. It’s obviously not going to happen because of the putrid start the M’s had, but if they’d played like they are capable of all season it’s not that much of a stretch.
pdb - July 1, 2010
With these players on the rost right now
Is why we have the record that we do.
m_b - July 1, 2010
[roster]
m_b - July 1, 2010
If these players on this roster played to their potential this would be a much better team
But they’re not, so it’s not.
pdb - July 1, 2010
Are they playing to their potential now?
I’m simply saying I don’t think this team, as it is constructed now, could win a championship. Exhibit A – record in month of June is roughly .500 ball.
m_b - July 1, 2010
A team can win the World Series by being just 3 games over .500 in October.
Sec 108 - July 1, 2010
No it's not the reason we have the record that we do
These players on this roster were not exactly going to tear the cover off the ball, but primarily the reason we are where we are is many of them were very, very unlucky all at the same time. Also, injuries.
OlSalty - July 1, 2010
*Yes they also haven't played real well until recently, but not legitly bad enough to sink the season by June in terms of talent
OlSalty - July 1, 2010
So through years of great work and analysis Jeff has earned the right to say things like that.
As someone who is new and unknown here it is up to you to present a cogent argument that shows why he needs to “calm down.” Also to prove that Felix just threw his best game ever. You may very well be correct, but I am going to err on the side of Jeff since he has shown himself a very capable analyst.
Sec 108 - July 1, 2010
Felix's best game ever was Opening Day 2007
Graham MacAree - July 1, 2010
I think it's debatable.
The A’s were a much worse lineup than the current Yankees. This one, the A’s and the Red Sox game are his top 3.
Unless you’re going strictly by tRA, but even in that case it isn’t adjusted for which lineup he faced.
Fuckmikereilly - July 1, 2010
He was nowhere near as sharp against the Red Sox as he was against the Athletics
One ball left the infield that game in eight innings.
Graham MacAree - July 1, 2010
But the A's also sucked while the Red Sox did not
Jeff Sullivan - July 1, 2010
The A's sucking has nothing to do with his ability to hit the target
Graham MacAree - July 1, 2010
Which I didn't mention earlier, but there you go
Graham MacAree - July 1, 2010
?
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/1/21/1262891/celebrating-felix-hernandez-five
Fuckmikereilly - July 1, 2010
The Mariners won the game by seven runs
Felix could’ve been a lot worse.
I didn’t say the Mariners should be champions. But they could’ve been, for reasons that’ve already been laid out. Get this team in the playoffs and they’re terrifying.
Jeff Sullivan - July 1, 2010
I don't totally disagree, but..
I read your earlier posts regarding this. Like you, I don’t really have a problem with Jack Z’s moves too much (a lot of them are really pretty low risk / high return deals that didn’t pan out – ie Byrnes).
I look at slightly different stats. The M’s gave up 692 runs last year, which was the best in baseball (earned and unearned). They scored far less than that and posted a winning record. 2009 was a statistical anomoly in terms of how this translated into wins and losses – teams being outscored don’t usually have winning records.
As you project, the M’s are on a pace to give up 693 runs this year. So, they are basically playing defense and pitching at around the same level as last year (in the big picture) – ie you can point to different reasons for this, leverage situations resulting in different wins and losses, but it is the same big picture result – they are giving up very few runs.
I guess where I am taking this is that additional moves aimed at “run prevention”, one could argue, were not / should not be the highest priority for the team to address.
I would suggest that when you are last in the league in most offensive categories – perhaps moves should be made to improve the offense. You can talk about stadium adjustments, etc – I don’t expect them to lead the league in offense when they play half the games at Safeco, but I think it is reasonable to expect them to be “middle of the pack” in terms of run production.
The one glaring statistic I would point to as being the largest weakness is slugging percentage. Simply put, they need some bats that can drive in runs.
If you take a look at the moves used to reconstruct the roster at the beginning of the year – it really all boils down to Figgins for Beltre, Kotchman for Branyan, AAA talent replacements for Johjima, and an addition of Bradley to replace a bunch of part-timers. Lastly, there was an expectation that Griffey would not fall off the table. Of these moves, I would not view any of the moves (other than Bradley) as being an “upgrade” in terms of addressing the team’s anemic power. This was my real concern at the beginning of the season, and it has turned out to become a reality.
I didn’t expect this to be the complete nightmare that has occurred, for all of the reasons you mentioned in a previous post. I agree with you on your earlier assessments, ie if the players (Figgins, Kotchman, Lopez, etc) were not having completely anemic seasons, the M’s would be closer to being in the mix. I mean, who would have thought that keeping Corey Patterson out of trainin camp would have resulted in an “offensive upgrade” today? I personally view the two largest disappointments (from a view of under-performing) to be Kotchman and Griffey – a complete power outage from two positions that you expect “something”.
All of that said, I think we’d be talking “Angels” and not “Royals” as being the closest competition today – I did not think we would be talking “potential playoffs” just yet- they would still have to score some runs and I don’t see those moves getting them any closer than where they were last year.
Not to cross the line into rosterbation, but I would have liked to see Z make a couple of the low risk/higher leverage investments on guys like a Hank Blalock type (he does not have a great average, but can play a little 1B and has some pop in the bat), or one of the catchers out there that had some pop in the bat, finding Ken Phelps phone number, or something down those lines. Slugging perhaps at the expense of some average and possibly of a little defense.
I think the Branyan deal was aimed completely at this – probably for this year and next – I don’t read anything into it beyond this.
I also agree that there is not much reason to hold out hope on this year. Optimists point to years where teams come from 8 games back to catch a division leader – M’s/Angels, Yanks/Red Sox). The real difference is that in those cases, there were not other teams in the way. This season thus relies on not only the M’s playing +.600 ball to get in the mix, but 8 other teams ahead in the standing also not doing the same.
So, I guess we are coming to the same conclusions. 30+ years of following this franchise, and 2010 becomes another lost year. Better than some – at least I started the season with some optimism. It still has not been a total loss – they weren’t mathematically eliminated by Mother’s Day like so many of the early years and a few recent ones where you went into spring training with only thought being “we’re doomed”.
Henry H - July 1, 2010
Using runs scored and allowed to judge won-loss records is so 2003.
We’re well beyond that now.
Matthew - July 1, 2010
I gathered that...
Teams built around “run prevention” that have done well (in my memory) include the 2001 Diamondbacks and the Cards teams in the 80’s. The whole looong post of mine simply boils down to the difference between those teams and the 2010 M’s this is that Luis Gonzalez or George Hendrick could probably still drive in more runs than over half of the M’s lineup today…
Henry H - July 1, 2010
Hank Blalock sucks
OlSalty - July 1, 2010
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