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Lookout Landing

35-54, Game Thoughts

The All-Star break means a lot of things to a lot of people. To the players, it's an opportunity to relax, hang out with the family, catch some downtime, and take a breather. To the coaches and executives, it's an opportunity to reflect on everything that's happened and plan for the immediate and long-term future without getting bogged down by a game. And to the fans, it's an opportunity to take a break and re-energize. The baseball season is long. Unfathomably long. Sometimes unbearably long. Having a game pretty much every single day can wear on even some of the casual fans, so it's nice to get a few days where you don't really have to think very much.

For me, it really was re-energizing. I mean, I did a lot of work during the break, but you wouldn't believe how much less cluttered my days look when there isn't a Mariners game taking up a chunk. Getting a little time off can pull a fan out of a rut, and that's what it did for me. Three days without the Mariners turned out to be enough to make me sort of miss the Mariners. And so it was this afternoon that I found myself looking forward to the first pitch. I missed the experience, and because of the time off and the various other distractions, I'd kind of forgotten what it felt like.

Yeah I uh remember now

I'm going to race through these because it's late and whatever:

  • There's been some degree of concern over Doug Fister, as this was the third time he's gotten hit around in four starts since coming off the DL. Now on the one hand, I gotta say, he looked as much like Doug Fister as he ever has to the naked eye. Same fastball, same breaking stuff, same control. 64 of his 91 pitches were strikes. He ran into some trouble and got drilled early on, which is uncharacteristic, but that sort of thing happens to contact pitchers every so often, previous DL stint or no. With regard to the DL trip and the struggles, many have been too hasty to turn correlation into causation.

    On the other hand, this is something I just stumbled across. Via Brooks Baseball, check out how Fister's top-end velocity has been holding up over his last three starts:

    July 2:

    Speed2

    July 7:

    Speed2

    July 15:

    Speed2

    For three starts in a row, now, Fister's fastball has gotten slower as the game has worn on, which isn't something we really saw from him before he went on the DL. And that's the kind of thing that makes you wonder. The bulk of the damage tonight was done before he started to lose it, but results aside, these graphs make me wary of Fister's shoulder. Curiously, he had no such issue in his first start back.

    I'm not saying you should sound the alarms. Fister may very well be fine. This is just something to keep an eye on. Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to start being cautious with the starters. God knows there's no longer any need to be aggressive.


  • The first pitch of this game was an outside curveball for a called strike from Joel Pineiro to Ichiro. If that seems unusual, it should - only 2% of first pitches are breaking balls, and only 6% are offspeed. This, of course, strikes me as kind of stupid, since that's a predictable pattern and hitters feast on predictable patterns, but it's also practically tradition, and it's rare to see a guy deviate from what's traditional. Good on Pineiro and Mathis for mixing things up. More people should.

  • There's nothing significant about this, other than the fact that it's kind of cool:

    Fisterrivera_medium
    Against Juan Rivera in the third, Doug Fister threw three different pitches in a row to the exact same spot. All he was missing was the big loopy curve. I don't remember if he meant to do this, and I'm guessing he probably wanted the 0-2 changeup a little more outside, but the way it worked out caught my eye.

  • Interesting day for Justin Smoak - between three strikeouts, he pulled a deep fly ball that nearly left the park, he made a good extended pick on a low Jose Lopez throw early on, and later he jumped higher in the air than I thought he could jump to pull down another errant toss from third. That he's now 1-12 with six strikeouts as a Mariner disappoints everyone who wanted immediate success, but at least today we caught a glimpse of his swing and his power. This is no time for impatience. This is literally the worst possible time for impatience.

  • In the eighth inning, Kevin Jepsen threw Jose Lopez a high fastball that Lopez turned on, and Jepsen reacted as if he'd given up a first-pitch home run. The ball died 30 feet in front of the fence and Lopez casually jogged back to the dugout. Kevin Jepsen should have some faith in himself. Alternatively, Kevin Jepsen should have less faith in Jose Lopez.

  • Paul McAnulty picked up an infield single in the second inning, which, if you've seen Paul McAnulty, is the kind of thing that should probably drop our UZR 40 points.

  • Both before and during the game, we heard a lot about newcomer Jamey Wright. Specifically, we heard a lot about how he was a favorite of Wak's in Texas, and how Wak has been lobbying for him for more than a year. In the year that Wright and Wak overlapped in Texas, Wright walked more batters than he struck out. In his debut appearance tonight, he walked the first guy he faced on five pitches. The first guy he faced was Kevin Frandsen. This is a pattern now. Wak loves Sean White and pitchers like Sean White. He doesn't like pitchers like Shawn Kelley because pitchers like Shawn Kelley aren't like Sean White. I don't know how long Wak's list of responsibilities is with this team, but at this point I'm certain I'd like to reassign one of them to somebody else.

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Comments

I just can't fathom why Wak has such a hard-on for shitty pitchers.

Is he really just stuck on ERA or something?

I certainly have a hard-on for the idea of firing him and his coaching staff at the end of the season
It is either a personality thing or Wak used to coach the Washington Generals.
If I owned a business I would hire Wak to screen candidates.

I would then do the exact opposite of whatever he suggested.

Oh, Paul McAnulty, how you fascinate me
And oh how he confuses us. Why they play him over Napoli is a mystery.
Wak's not a moron, right? I mean... you can't get a managerial job and be really really dumb.

Can you?

WHY does he love such shitty pitchers?? What the hell is the deal?? This just blows my mind. It’s such a fundamentally easy thing to grasp, why can’t Wak??!

When Sean White comes in to baseball games, the Mariners lose them badly.

When Shawn Kelley comes in to baseball games, the score stays close.

WHY IS THIS A DIFFICULT CONCEPT FOR WAK TO GRASP?

I feel like we've probably been to hard on Wak with the whole White/Kelley thing.

Wak clearly thinks White is better than he is, but if we went back and looked at the game logs this year I’m almost positive that Wak has probably used Kelley in more high leverage situations than White, especially after April.

I think you'd be wrong.

I seem to recall someone somewhere had already studied that.

Given the state of our bullpen, I don't care which crappy relievers Wak likes

Other than Aardsma and League, all we have right now are crappy relievers. I’m just glad none of them are expensive.

This may be true

but at the same time he should be using an opportunity like this to audition potential contributors. Wright is not a potential contributor. He sucks, and the evidence for this is both plentiful and convincing.

Kelley isn't crappy.
Kelley isn't on the team at the moment
He's also not good.
People who express impatience with Smoak bum me out. The season is irrelevent, all that matters is that he gets comfortable with the team and with Safeco.

And then next year, we can start having actual expectations of him.

Like this?

“What makes Smoak better than Carp?? And how do you compare those skills?? Seems like Carp has more patience at the plate?? I know Smoak is a switch hitter and a big boy with decent defensive skills (saw that last night) but he reminds me of Jeff Clements at the plate!!!”

Yes, just like that.

(blows brains out)

Now I have to drink heavily

must. forget. stupidity.

That deep fly Smoak hit was scary. The guy definitely has the power.

I think Jepsen’s reaction had more to do with, “Oh god what did I just do and I am the most reliable reliever on the team.” Jepsen has a huge weight of responsibility on his shoulders with the shitty state of the Angels bullpen this year and he has been our go to guy. He hates making mistakes and when he does make one, it is usually giving up a long ball.

At the game last night...a few observations

Got great tickets last night right behind the Angels dugout—I was the only M’s fan in the area.
     1. Ichiro hits the ball harder than any other Mariner, his 3-run double was absolutely smoked.
      2. Smoak struck out 3 times on off-speed pitches (looked like slow curves each time). He is having a hug problem with pitch recognition but hopefully that will improve.
      3. Jose Lopez’s extra base hits even suck. When he hit that double off the wall my friend said “that ball is gone”. I replied, Jose Lopez only has LF line power to 350 ft. or so. Thus when it hit the wall I kind of laughed-Jose can’t even hit doubles and make me hate him less.
      4. I won a few bucks when Jamey Wright came as a bet the guy in front of me there would either be a walk or groundball—which there was the first 3 hitters he faced :)
      5. I hate the Rally Monkey

Smoak's having a hug problem?

Come back soon Sweeney!

I think Smoak is saying fuck it I'm a Mariner and started swinging like one. He's supposed to walk the world in a good sense isn't he?
Doesn't everyone hate the rally monkey?

It’s sort of like the Mariner hat trick, something to distract the masses.

“Ooh, look at the monkey!”

It's much worse than that at Angels Stadium

The Hat Trick is something fun to do during commercials. The rally monkey makes doing the wave look much, much better than it is.

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