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Lookout Landing

37-58, Game Thoughts

Walk-off wins are an interesting phenomenon, in that they're kind of anti-baseball in a way. They're sudden. They're exhilarating. There's nothing about them that's slow or deliberate or calculated or subtle - they just happen, and half the people celebrate, and half the people don't, and everything's over in a flash. They provide a rush unfelt by fans in the overwhelming majority of the games they watch - games they watch knowing full well that the odds are they're just in for a standard, unexciting nine innings.

And if walk-off wins are invigorating, then walk-off comeback wins are an absolute, unparalleled delight. You know one of the big reasons so many people love playoff hockey? The games keep going until somebody wins, even if the teams require five extra periods. Playoff overtime is among the more nerve-wracking, compelling sporting circumstances in the world, and the sudden-death goals become instant classics. The hit that delivers a walk-off comeback win is the closest that baseball comes to a hockey goal in overtime. It isn't just about the result. It's about the context of the winning play, the suddenness of it, the surprise, and the negated possibility of things going the other way. For all intents and purposes, Franklin Gutierrez hit a sudden-death single.

That was a good feeling. For us, and for them. And honestly, I wonder if people in our position might not enjoy these things more than the people who follow or play for a good team. Those people have a higher baseline feeling, and higher expectations, possibly leading to reduced satisfaction. For us: who saw this coming? How long has this been coming? How great does it feel to pull out a win in a game the M's have lost like two dozen times?

When I think about it, I think it might look like this:

Goodfeelings_medium

A bad team gets the higher good feeling peak after a walk-off, because for them these things are less frequent and more of a relief. A good team gets the lower good feeling peak but sustains the good feelings for longer, as the context settles in and the significance of the game becomes apparent. At first, celebrating a walk-off is all about the game just played. While that game's going on, that's the only game that matters, and the big picture is at least momentarily forgotten. That's why the M's got to celebrate their 37th win as much as they did. But I think their and our excitement may fade sooner than it would for a good team, because as much of an exciting relief as it was, it doesn't take long to remember, oh yeah, everything else.

That's just a hypothesis, though. What really matters is that, if nothing else, a 37-58 ballclub just provided one of the biggest highlights of the season. Watching a bunch of happy Mariners smile and jump around and beat the crap out of each other never gets old. It just never gets old. Walk-off wins are a treat.

-----

I only caught the last few innings of this one, so I don't have a whole lot to say. The big points:

  • Jose Lopez's baserunning gaffe on the Milton Bradley pop-up was the pinnacle of brainlessness. You can read about this play in a million other places, but in short, Lopez stood at first as a meaningless run with one out in the bottom of the ninth, Chone Figgins occupying second. Bradley lifted a shallow pop to right that looked like it might drop in front of Andruw Jones, but Jones made a diving catch, rolled over, and threw to first to double up Lopez, who had inexplicably strayed too far from the base. The inning was over and the game advanced to extras, and Lopez again became a target of ire.

    I am not going to defend Lopez on this one. I don't think there is any defending Lopez on this one. I will say that Lopez has done things like this his entire career. Even when he was going okay in 2008 and 2009. This isn't indicative of some lack of effort. It's just indicative of another lapse in focus, one of countless lapses for which Lopez has developed a reputation. It's one thing to screw up when you're hitting the occasional home run. Then people are more willing to overlook your mistakes. But when things are going as badly as they're going for Lopez at the plate, he has to be looking to improve the other parts of his game if nothing else, and one of those parts is paying attention. He wasn't paying attention. That's an unforgivable error, and he should be forced to watch video of it on a daily basis until these things start happening less often.

    Alternatively, the M's could just get rid of him. There are reasons to do it, and there are reasons not to do it, but they could always opt to make an example of him and send him on his way. That we can even talk about this seriously in the middle of July is one of 2010's greatest disappointments. I didn't think Jose Lopez would carry over all of his gains from 2009, but I also didn't think he wouldn't carry over any of them.

  • For those of you wondering, the brainlessness only makes Lopez that much more lovable. Stupid dog! Get off the sofa!

  • From what I gather, Felix Hernandez was amazing today. The numbers certainly bear that out, as he threw two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, kept two-thirds of his balls in play on the ground, and struck out eight guys. This was cruise control, and a welcome bounceback from a start against the Angels in which he didn't have his good stuff.

    And most interesting? Felix threw this game with Josh Bard behind the plate. I am all about pitcher comfort. Pitchers ought to be comfortable. On any given day, your starting pitcher is your most important player in a game, so you should want to do what you can to keep him feeling good. But while no bone in my body doubts that Felix Hernandez prefers to throw to Rob Johnson, I also think that, push comes to shove, he could manage with somebody else, as he did tonight. Throwing to Josh Bard, Felix threw one of his best and easiest games of the season. That's not a fluke. Felix's stuff can work against anyone. No matter who's catching. This is an important thing for the M's to keep in mind as they look ahead and deal with their issues at catcher.

    Felix's location, by the way, was just outstanding. Let's go to Brooks Baseball. Against lefties:

    Location
    Against righties:

    Location

    Lefties got pitches almost exclusively away, many of them down. Righties got almost everything at the middle of the zone or below. Just looking at those charts, you don't even have to know much about PITCHfx to understand that Felix didn't give the White Sox many chances. That is exactly how I would want a strikeout groundballer's pitch charts to look. For 93 pitches, Felix did everything right.


  • And for only 93 pitches, as Don Wakamatsu elected to remove Felix after eight innings while he was riding a streak of 17 consecutive outs. Much as is the case when Wak would let Felix's pitch count get really high, this puts fans in a weird (albeit opposite) position. On the one hand, Felix was rolling, he was feeling good, and he was showing no signs of fatigue as he looked ahead to another ninth inning. On the other, the M's are terrible and Felix has been worked awful hard, so why not give him a bit of a break? It's certainly the safer course of action. Nobody ever got hurt by pitching less.

    The internet has conditioned most people to develop strong opinions on as many things as they can, but me, I just don't have one on this. I can see both sides. I will say that Wak's decision was surprising. He'd let Felix throw at least 101 pitches in 13 consecutive starts, including games with 118, 126, and 128. And you have to figure that what's surprising to us was even more surprising to Felix, who made no attempt to hide his displeasure after the game. It's just hard for me to come down on someone who's simply looking out for his best pitcher's health. Sure, Felix doesn't come out if this is an important game. But this wasn't an important game.

    I guess I'm caught in between. I hate when Felix is upset, and I hate when Felix is injured. What I'd really like is for someone to explain to Felix why Wak did what he did. Explain it in a way that he thinks about, that he understands. It doesn't reflect negatively on Felix. It isn't a sign of distrust. If anything, it's a compliment. Wak likes and trusts Felix so much that he wants to keep him healthy as a horse.

    I'm somewhat concerned that this could have an effect on the Felix/Wak relationship, but more likely is that it blows over and Felix forgets about it by his next turn. Hopefully someone reminds him, or he reminds himself, just how long he's been allowed to go a few times this year. Felix wants to stay out there in every single start, but he won't get his way every time, and he needs to understand that he still gets his way more often than not. Like everything in life, it's a compromise.

    Talking about pitcher workload is so complicated.

1 recs  |  50 comments

Comments

I didn't see it (just listened on the radio)

But was the ball that was caught on a diving play that Lopez got doubled off on a situation where if Lopez stayed at 1st and the ball wasn’t caught, he’d get thrown out at second for sure and then of course, if he decided to cheat a bit and leave first to prevent that, he’d be at risk of being doubled off at first if it was caught, as it was.

In that case, I’d say it was a tough spot for Lopez and a reasonable mistake if he thought there was a good chance it wouldn’t be caught. However, from the way everybody’s talking, I’m assuming it was definitely going to be caught and Lopez was just being an idiot?

No, that's not it.

It’s that it doesn’t matter if he’s picked off, because if the ball drops then there are still just two outs and runners on first and 3rd. His only job is to not get doubled up.

Some people have been saying this, and it's totally unfair.

Yes, Lopez’s run didn’t count and he should have erred on the side of caution and not gotten doubled off. But…If the ball drops and he doesn’t get to second, it’s first and third with two outs. However, if the ball drops and he gets to second, it is bases loaded, one out. And it’s a LOT easier to get a runner in from third with one out than it is with two out (especially with the lack of hits our team gets).

It’s less reasonable in that scenario because the catch was so much closer to first base than to second base, but there was reason for him to err towards second base.

Nah, I'm pretty sure this was just an error on his part. He was way too far over.

Part of playing the game is understanding risk, and I think it was clear that he did not. I think being upset with this performance is completely justified.

Umm, that's not what I said.

Of course he was too far over. It was dumb. You said

His only job is to not get doubled up.
which is absolutely false. Read what I said.

I see you are passionate about this but I am not so I do not wish to further this conversation.
Sorry, not really passionate about it. Just didn't like the implication that I thought it wasn't an error on Lopez's part because that would make me as dumb as Lopez.
We may have just had one of the worst baseball related subthreads ever.
Ah but now it seems like not such a bone headed mistake given all the factors

Basically, given that he had to make this decision in a under a couple seconds and thus it would have to be reactionary instead of actually really thinking about it. Obviously he made the wrong choice, but it wasn’t so blatantly stupid as many of the other base running gaffs the M’s have made this year, such as the Milton Bradley one the day before (Milton Bradley’s my new favorite player all around, but seriously I’d like to know what really happened on that one; Wak’s explanation didn’t make sense given Bradley’s reaction directly after the fact).

Anyways, a lot to be factored in on Lopez’s mistake and given the time he had to think about it and that he probably thought it wasn’t going to be caught, only slightly boneheaded instead of down-syndrome-ish :-)

It matters a hell of a lot more that he isn't picked off at first than if he isn't picked off at second.

He may not have had a lot of time to think about it, but it’s something he should know.

Have you watched it yet? He wasn’t close to first. He had no shot of getting back.

Here

Or, should say:

It matters a HELL of a lot more to not get picked off first than it does to have a CHANCE to get to second, to set up second and third with two outs instead of first and third with two outs. By an exponential order of magnitude more important. Because even if the ball drops, the lead runner doesn’t score and he makes it it to second, they can just intentionally load the bases in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th. Again, the trail runner means nothing.

Lopez is every bit as stupid, unfocused, and unmotivated—and I’m sorry Jeff, not remotely lovable—as everyone has said.

Do people forget that if the ball drops, Bradley makes it to first?

I really have no qualms with people railing on Lopez, I just wish they’d be reasonable and at least remember the situation at hand instead of misrepresenting it.

To put another way: If Lopez were to stay needlessly close to first base and the ball were to drop, he’d be thrown out at 2nd and we’d have 1st and 3rd two outs instead of bases loaded one out, which is a pretty big swing. People would have been furious at Lopez in that scenario too.

He was dumb because he was way too far towards second. But it’s not like the chance to get to second base if the ball drops is inconsequential.

No, not forgetting

He has to be reasonably able to advance if the ball drops, but not so far that a fat Andruw Jones on his back can easily pick him off first. It’s not complicated. Beer-league softball players know this.

Okay, I must have misinterpreted your comment.
No, I could have worded it better and your point is taken
You are both gentleman
My thought...

If that ball drops, Lopez, after taking reasonable precaution as the trail runner, THEN takes off for second, right? And if he takes off for second and Jones throws anywhere near that vicinity, doesn’t Figgins bolt for home and make it pretty, well, easily?

Worst-case scenario: First and third with 2 outs

Second-best case: Bases loaded one out

Best case: Figgins scores, game over, happy totals time

Instead the Mariners got Lopez-case scenario.

Wasn't Figgins on second?

He has to hold up as well; I don’t think there’s any way he’d be able to score. FuckMike is right, Lopez has to go partway toward second. But everybody else is right when they say that there’s no way Lopez should have gotten himself picked off first. He’s a professional ballplayer, he’s been playing this game for 15 to 20 years, he’s got to keep his head in the game and play to the situation. There’s no way he should have been so far off first that he gets thrown out. Hey, maybe Jones makes a great play on a hop and throws him out at second, but that’s far better than getting doubled up.

That was just a horrible, inexcusable piece of baserunning by Lopez.

I don't think Lopez

is capable of that level of strategic thinking on the fly.

Ichiro is currently collecting hits at 1.28 hits a game. He needs 1.31 the rest of the way to get 200 hits this year

Given the crappy offense overall (and thus less at bats for him) and the slump he’s been in for a few weeks, I’m starting to get nervous for him. :-)

Also, interesting note that probably has no real significance but I’m surprised no one in the media has pointed it out yet:

Ichiro this season before Griffey retired: .342 BA
Ichiro this season after Griffey retired: .276 BA

… Apparently Ichiro’s hits at his age now are powered by tickles.

Just saw the replay of the 11th

They showed the graphic on the bottom of the screen with “Final/11” and I thought for a second it said “Final!!!” It would have been worth it.

Also, It makes me really happy that Smoak was the first guy out of the dugout to go get Gutierrez. I could get used to that.

Brandon League has the same W/L record as Felix.
Additional Thoughts!

- It was nice to see Justin Smoak be the first person to get to Gutierrez after the walkoff. It’s not important, but it was nice to see.
- I expect to see half our team in the movie “Dinner with Schmucks.”
- One thing about aggressive baserunning is that it should act as its own evidence that the players are trying.
- We suck at aggressive baserunning.
- When a player never gets a chance to play, and when they do they make an obvious mistake, it feels like we will never see them again. I’m going to miss Langerhans.
- Your Tweets were hilarious. Great job. I have recced this post as a thank you for making me laugh.

I sometimes wonder if a coaching staff should push agressive baserunning at all.

Most baseball players have been playing for a long time. While all players are prone to momentary lapses and players may make poor decisions, I think they generally know when they should run and when they shouldn’t. Pushing it too hard just leads to people being stupid. Then again, it’s worked out for the Angels, so who knows.

Smoak getting out to Guti was awesome. Seeing Smoak celebrating in that situation was awesome. If I were in his shoes, going from a probable playoff team to this team (especially with our play lately), I don’t think I could handle it half as well as he has. “We won for the third time since I’ve been here? YAY!”

I want Guti and Smoak to make a baby.
The Angels practice baserunning as a team on nearly a daily basis before games

This is probably one of the reason it works for them and not the M’s.

It seems to me, so much of base running is reactionary, based on passed experience, given there really isn’t much of any time to consciously think about what’s going on. So by trying to get the players to be extra aggressive (outside of what they’ve done throughout their lives) and not backing it up with regular practice to develop the appropriate experience so that this new aggressive approach comes naturally, it sets the players up for a lot of embarrassing failures on the base paths. My theory anyways…

ugh "past"
Milton Bradley is trying to singlehandedly destroy an entire forest.
There's some statistics I'd like to see...

A large number of MLB hitters have switched over to maple, which is far more prone to the crazy shattering you’ll see than the traditional ash bat. Link for reference. I wonder if there’s any evidence that the excess number of shatter balls affects the performance of maple bats. It could create more bloopers, but it’s probably taking a way some more solid contact that isn’t right on the sweet spot.

I can take solace in Lopez's gaffes based on the fact that nobody really expects him to be here next season and the M's aren't going anywhere this season.

So rather than get angry, it’s more of a “you idiot, Ha!” type thing. And if you’re rooting for Rendon sweepstakes, you may even love Lopez.

Jose Lopez is the ugliest stupidest baseball player that ever were
Jack Wilson?

John Kruk?
Darren Daulton?
Jay Buhner?

not all stupid but all ugly
Buhner and Kruk are certainly stupid.
Daulton's no Rhodes scholar either
Those guys were really good at one point
The early 90's Phillies team was crazy and ugly.

Kruk, Daulton, Dykstra, Mitch Williams, and Schilling were all on that team.

Jay Buhner was not a stupid baseball player

He may have been a knucklehead hick in general, but he knew how to play the game.

He was on the list because he was ugly
Aha, didn't see the qualifier
When I saw Andruw Jones flip the ball in to double off Lopez

I literally thought he was just getting the ball in. I could not believe Lopez was doubled off on that play.

This tipped me from strong apathy with a hint of mild disgust for Lopez toward Rob Johnson land.

Seeing his smiling happy face after his blunder doesn’t give me confidence that he had much of a clue what he did, and that means he won’t learn from it. It’s hard to penalize the guy for being quite dumb or or blissfully unaware or whatever he is, but I don’t want it around anymore.

I'm with you that he's an idiot.

But I didn’t see him smiling afterwards. He actually looked embarassed to me. Not that it is that important.

Watching this game live was agony

There were so many frustrating things that went wrong as this went scoreless into extra innings.

The Lopez incident.
The Langerhans pickle.
The Lopez GIDP.
Bard failing to execute a sac bunt.
Aardsma immediately getting into a jam after Felix leaves, just having retired 17 in a row.
Figgins thrown out stealing.
Every regular except Lopez striking out at least once.
Kotchman’s almost-homer followed by an ugly K
M’s routinely getting into 0-2 counts in high leverage ABs

I’m glad this one is over.

Also, I'm glad we finally scored

Because the last game I went to was the Cliff Lee start that went scoreless into the 12th, and I was tired of seeing scoreless baseball live.

That Juan Pierre caught stealing that wasn't was pretty dumb as well.

Which is part of why Aardsma was in a jam. When he was called safe I thought he was eventually going to score because, well, that’s what happens to us.

That Ichiro kid is awesome.
The walk off victory was such a delightful surprise, I loved it.

Plus, my roommate texted me to tell me that my friend and I were apparently on TV during one of those Bud Light sponsorship bumpers, doubling fisting beers. Cool dude alert!

He's so cuuuuuuuuute

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