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Lookout Landing

34-50, Game Thoughts

Okay, so the Mariners just got swept by the Royals, at home. That's one of those things that's supposed to be sufficiently embarrassing to drop you to your knees. "The Mariners just got swept by the Royals! At home! Why I never-"

But then, remember that, coming into the series, the Royals were the better team. They haven't pitched as well, and they haven't fielded as well, but the M's have had a woeful offense while the Royals have been about average, and that's a big difference. A big enough difference to give Kansas City a marked edge.

So when you think about it that way, it isn't getting swept by the Royals that's embarrassing. Sometimes you get swept by better teams. What's embarrassing is that the Mariners have been worse than the Royals in the first place. Say what you will about Dayton Moore deserving more respect than he gets from the internet, but there's no way his team was supposed to be better than Jack's this year, so the way it's played out so far has been the height of disappointment. The Mariners were media darlings. The Royals were a punchline. The Royals have gone on to be better. Repeat that to yourself. Live it. Embrace it. This is our reality.

The Mariners just got swept by the Royals, at home. It never ceases to surprise me how often it surprises me that this team is as bad as it is.

  • Brandon League threw 17 pitches tonight. 15 of them were fastballs. He allowed two walks and a home run. He now has a 5.40 RA, versus last year's 4.82, and a plummeting strikeout rate. There's no longer any arguing that what he's doing is generating better results. None. He's gone away from using his splitter as often, and in so doing he's made himself worse.

    This, of course, reflects very poorly on League, who clearly has the stuff but has little concept of how to use it properly. But it also reflects poorly on the coaching staff, who - if it wasn't at the heart of it - has at the very least aided and abetted League's reversion to being a mediocre reliever. Athletes, by and large, are morons. Not all of them, but many of them. It's up to the coaches, then, to steer the athletes in the right direction. The Mariners' coaches have failed in this endeavor with regard to League. They may have had a good idea, and their heart was in the right place, but this Brandon League is way, way worse than the one for whom the M's traded, and that isn't only League's fault.

    It's frustrating, because League was so exciting when he was shiny and new. Now he's developed a reputation, and it's hard to argue he doesn't deserve it. If he doesn't start pitching differently from this point forward, then at least two people are clueless.

  • Brian Sweeney, by the way, allowed his first run of the season on a wild pitch. He has seven strikeouts and zero walks in nine innings, to go with a 42% fastball rate. Only a matter of time before the M's show him what he's doing wrong.

  • The downside is that Michael Saunders struck out another two times. The upside is that he walked another two times and played another carom perfectly, making another strong throw to retire another runner on the bases. This time it was Billy Butler in the sixth, who rounded first a little too aggressively on what was from the beginning just a standard fat guy single off the wall. It was bad baserunning on Butler's part, but it still required an excellent play and throw from Saunders in left to get the out. It's great to see the defense show up, as Saunders looks as comfortable as anyone in the outfield. It's just another piece of the puzzle. The defense has arrived. The power has arrived. As more and more of Saunders' game translates to the big league level, there's less and less ground to go before we can consider him a quality young regular. He is getting there.

  • Jose Lopez has a .274 OBP, a .335 SLG, and 229 plate appearances from the cleanup slot. Against a very wild Kyle Davies, he swung at a first-pitch low-away slider to ground into a bases loaded double play, and later, in less egregious fashion, he grounded out with the bases loaded once more. He's like Adrian Beltre without the power. Which is to say he's really really bad. There was a point at which I was pretty convinced he was working himself out of this slump, but now I don't know that he'll ever get back, at least as a Mariner. It is just impossible to have any shred of confidence in a guy with so little idea at the plate.

  • It is entirely too hot in here for me to give this point its proper due, but I would like to nominate David DeJesus as the most boring good player in baseball right now. He's like slightly above-average at everything, he's incredibly consistent, he's played in Kansas City his entire career, and I can't remember hearing a single interesting thing about any extracurricular activities. He's just kind of there. He's always there. And he's reasonably productive. You're never afraid of David DeJesus in the Royals' lineup, but then, if he beats you, it's never surprising, because, hey, David DeJesus. That's just what he does, sometimes.

    If DeJesus were a little more injury-prone, he'd be a born Oakland A.

  • After Casey Kotchman's first home run, I glanced around my living room, trying to figure out what else was awry. But then the camera caught and held a shot of Kotchman on the dugout bench looking pained and forlorn as he took off his batting gloves, and I felt these pangs of sympathy for a guy who's just trying his damndest to hang on to a dying career. So when he ripped his second dinger of the game, I felt genuine delight. Way to go, Casey. Way to prove what you can still do. I said to myself, alone, in the heat.

    Casey Kotchman is only 27 years old. He's a former top prospect who's fought through debilitating mononucleosis, a concussion, and problems with his mother's health. He's now on his fourth team in three years, he hasn't hit consistently since 2007, and after struggling with the latest team to give him a shot, he's found himself blocked by a guy acquired for no more important reason than to provide some actual offense from first base to make the season more palatable for the fans. Casey Kotchman knows his time here is likely drawing to a close. So Casey Kotchman has to be wondering what comes next. Who's going to give him a chance? Who's going to roll the dice on a guy in his prime who once made Baseball America's top 25 four years in a row?

    I'm not saying Kotchman deserves another chance to start. But I'm just some guy sitting at home on his laptop. Imagine what it must be like for Kotchman - a guy about whom you never hear a negative word - who has to wonder every single day whether he's blown his last opportunity. It has to be agonizing. To be sure, he's already made some money in the game, but he could've been so much more. He should've been so much more. You see him launch the balls he hit today and it's clear that he has the ability. He just hasn't shown it often enough, and the result is that his days as a regular could very well be through before he turns 28.

    Baseball is a business, and oftentimes I'm as guilty of being insensitive as anyone. There are times, though, that I just feel so damn bad. I feel bad for Casey Kotchman. As meaningless as it was, the shot of him in the dugout resonated with me in a way that few shots do - in the way that shot of Jeff Weaver resonated with me during his complete game however many years back. I hope Casey Kotchman figures out his swing and lands on his feet. I don't necessarily want to see him try to get there with the Mariners, but I'd still like to see him succeed. For whatever reason, I feel like he deserves it.

3 recs  |  47 comments

Comments

On the subject of League and the splitter

Where’s the department of statistical analysis? What about all the rhetoric in regards to staff sitting down and talking? So is someone not sending the message, or is someone not receiving the message? Any way I look at a few of these situations… there’s a disconnect in there. Or is there is no recognition of the problems? Which would be worse

Jack loves to talk about how the organization doesn't do anything without getting input from as many people as possible

I’d guess that the people in favor of changing League into what they’ve tried to change him into either outnumber or outrank the people opposed.

Do you think the results thus far may lead to a change of heart in their plan for what they want League to do?

Or at this point is it like the Figgins-Lopez swap? Essentially, “What’s done is done, and we’re going to keep trying to make this work”…?

I honestly have no idea

I would think that, if they were convinced of whatever three months ago, they’re probably still rather fond of it now, but this organization has surprised me before.

They are full of surprises.

One other semi-related question on League: do you think the different delivery is what has changed the pitch classification? I noticed last year he threw 32% change-ups and hardly any splitters, but this year he’s thrown hardly any changes and 16% splitters. Average velocity is about the same, and visually the pitch looks much like League’s highlight videos from last year, but I can’t think of anything else that would change the pitch type classification.

The algorithm learned that League throws a split instead of a change, and corrected itself
Okay, so what I said in the chart thread was correct

That conversation is actually eerily similar to this one, which I hadn’t seen until I refreshed the main page!

At the very least it's curious to see what kind of personnel moves are made going forward.

It’s not like there’s much else to do except some kind of forensic examination of the corpse. Holy crap, this must be the Tropic of Cairo

My personal theory is that there's someone who has the organization's collective ear

That believes that the only way any pitcher, regardless of skillset, can be successful is to “establish the fastball”.

I don’t know who it’d be though. Maybe it’s Bill Kreuger’s hair.

The whole "establish the fastball" concept blows my mind.

Major league hitters make a living by hitting the fastball. Not one player makes it to the majors unless they can put a decent stroke on a heater. If major league hitters are best at hitting fastballs, why the hell would you throw more of them in a predictable fashion.

How do people like Kreuger justify this? This is my new baseball pet peeve. Thanks a lot Mariners.

Because they can point to someone like Doug Fister who's done nothing but pour 88mph

fastballs into the strike zone and somehow produced very good results. No doubt they’re well-established.

Is this the proper way to analyze the ‘fastball’? Should anything about Doug Fister influence anything about Brandon League? No and no! But the team obviously believes differently, and they can point to a few ‘successes’ in ’09 and ’10 to support their point of view.

This is one of the most concerning aspects of the organization to me.

I understand the Kotchman move, I understood the Morrow trade at the time, I understand the Lopez/Figgins switch, the Figgins signing, the Bradley trade, etc. I can not possibly think of a way to justify the use of Brandon League other than the fact that John Karl Wetteland is quite clearly a crazy person and must be a very steady baseball presence in the bullpen. Establish that fastball, boys. Those limp dicks can’t touch your heater so just bury them with the fast stuff. Fuck ‘em if they catch up to one, just wasn’t your day but tomorrow you’ll go back out there and smoke those Kansas pussies.

Your notes about Kotchman were spot-on (at least to me)

And I vividly remember that shot of Jeff Weaver. Before he became a Mariner, I just didn’t like him. Something about his face.

Then those agonizing games before he got “injured”…at that point I think he must have been my most hated Mariner of all time. I forgot all about Player A and Cirillo and just focused it all on him.

But that shot of him during the Pittsburgh game…I dunno something clicked I guess. (It was exactly like that part in How the Grinch Stole Christmas.) And now for some (probably equally irrational) reason he’s one of my favorite players. His comeback during the second half just made me so incredibly happy.

Well regardless of Weaver's "career-ender" face, he's gone on to many happy years in the NL

We can only hope the same for Kotchman.

I'm hopeful for Kotchman.

This is a hard season to watch, however. It’s been strange to have so many, so many things go wrong.

Fill in the blank...

The fact that this year’s Royals are better than this year’s Mariners…Embarrassing,

The fact that this year’s Royals are better than this year’s Mariners and that they just swept the Mariners…Painful.

The fact that this year’s Royals are better than this year’s Mariners, just swept the Mariners, and did it in Seattle…Horrifying.

The fact that this year’s Royals are better than this year’s Mariners, just swept the Mariners, did it in Seattle, and that the Mariners had a lead in every game of this series…

No words come to mind. I’ve never felt this bad about being a Mariners fan in my life. All offseason long all anyone could talk about was how this was the Mariners year and while I dreamed of what a Felix, Lee, Bedard rotation could do in the playoffs I kept reminding myself that anything could happen. The Mariners won 35 1-run games last year and there was no way they could match that total. It’s nice to see the improvements in Saunders game, but if it weren’t for the minor leagues I’d have no Baseball to follow. At least the Yankee’s aren’t coming to town.

Yeah, at least you've got that.
Don't worry.

We’ll get to see that Felix/Lee/Bedard rotation in the 2011 playoffs.

For the Red Sox
No, no.

 For the Mariners of course.

I'm trying to remember, did Putz stop throwing his splitter when he was hurt a few years ago?

Maybe League’s arm is bothering him and the splitter is harder on it than a straight fastball.

Except League has stated that he thinks saving his splitter makes it more effective.

Unless that was smoke and mirrors, I would go by that. Also, I would think the coaching staff would catch on if that was the reason.

And look at how much more effective he's been not throwing it!

Effective at blowing leads and generally sucking, that is.

The Kotchman commentary is excellent.

I remember watching a game very early in this season, watching him run to second base, and the grimace of pained exertion on his face was a little heartbreaking. Some of the time, Kotchman looks like being on the field is the most excruciating experience. It makes me love him a little bit.

The man does wince everytime he swings the bat. I'm not sure how much is pain and how much is him just being odd.
27 isn't old, even by baseball standards.
wee

That's a horrifying grimace/smirk.
And he homered!
Which means on some level that's his happy face!
It almost looked like he got on top of that second homer.

So WIERD.

He looks absolutely insane

like he hit somebody in the face with the bat.

Could you imagine the faces if Cliff Lee were to pitch to Kotchman.

I think MLB would have to limit the crowd to ages 18 and over.

Rec'd

Hilarious and inappropriate. A winning combination.

YES! I just figured out who Kotchman has always reminded me of: Zangief.

That’s the face Zangief makes when he is in the middle of spinning-pile-drivering someone.

Wow, that is pretty spot on actually.
I said 'odd'

But my goodness he does look a lot older than 27.

Casey reminds me of Alun Armstrong.
Jeff, you're a pretty damn good writer.

It’s bits like the one you wrote about Kotchman that make you a fucking incredible writer. Well said.

Yes Jeff, the fact that your capable of actually focusing on this team after watching another loss...

…is most impressive. It makes my brain hurt and also I usually want to break something.

On Kotchman;

I’m currently reading Doug Glanville’s “The Game From Where I Stand” and I couldn’t help but immediately think of the book when you were talking about Kotchman trying so hard to hang on to some semblence of a career.

Glanville mentions how frightening it is to see the game you love to play slowly slipping away. Your career in doubt. Putting pressure on each at bat because you don’t know if it could be your last.

Great stuff, Jeff.

Been meaning to read this book.
Poor Kotchman.

I feel really sorry for him. He has fantastic contact skills, a really good eye, and he hits the ball all sorts of hard. These tools of his are way above average, and would suggest a long and very successful career. There’s really no lack of effort on his part either, but he’s just not having success that corresponds to his talent and effort.

The only thing that stands out as potentially problematic is his really high GB rate. Subjectively, though it looks to me like he’s always (and I mean always) hitting the top half of the ball. If you take a look the moment of impact for his second homer, it looks like he got on top of it. He put one hell of a charge into the ball, but the point of contact looks odd to me. Additionally, the path of the ball in the air suggests a lot of topspin which implies that he did get on top of it.

I’ve suggested in the past that Kotchman should try to hit the ball in the air more. Upon further thought (and looking at the difference between those two homers) maybe he is trying, and maybe that’s causing a problem. I looked at the spray chart on this page and by making the assumption that outs in the outfield are fly balls (while hits in the outfield could be flies or grounders), it looks to me like Kotchman’s problems could be caused by the uppercut in his swing (his effort to hit the ball in the air). The spray chart says to me that Kotchman is getting under it when he’s late and topping it into the ground when he pulls it. Maybe if he tried finishing his swing a little lower and flatter, he wouldn’t be putting topspin on a ball he hits 350 feet. I really want him to be successful and I really want him to find his success with the Mariners organization, but considering the League situation I’m not sure I trust our coaches to help Kotchman out.

6 innings of great game, then I wanted to vomit

How much better would we be if we just didnt have Rob Johnson? Shit, lets have open tryouts for catcher, I’m pretty sure I can play better than him…. Every M’s loss I look at, Rob Johnson played a roll in it, and usually a big one

This brings up a question...

The Brandon League discussion seems to comes down to pitch selection. Who is actually calling his pitches? It seems to me that the catcher has some say in what he is going to be throwing – although a pitcher can wave it off. You see this discussion quite often – some starting pitchers feel more comfortable with some catchers. I was wondering if his pitch selection varies depending on who he is pitching to. While there might be a “establish the fastball” mentality, I wonder whether maybe he and a particular catcher are not on the same wavelength.

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