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On The Mariners' Next Manager

When a manager gets fired, I think everyone wants about a day or so to reflect on why it happened, and whether it was the right decision to make. Once those inquiries are exhausted, though - and it doesn't take long - it becomes time to look ahead to who comes next. Who's the next skipper going to be? It turns into a frequent topic of conversation, stretching from the time the opening is created right up to the time that it's filled.

What's weird about this particular discussion, though, is just how different it is from other ones of a similar nature. If your team needs a new pitcher, you talk about possible new pitchers, and you analyze which ones are good and which ones are not. If your teams needs a new second baseman, you talk about possible new second basemen, and you analyze which ones are good and which ones are not. If your team needs a new general manager, you talk about possible new general managers, and you analyze which ones have the right philosophies and which ones have the wrong philosophies.

In other words, when it comes to other openings, it's fairly easy to identify good fits and bad fits, and so, as fans, we're able to root for certain options and against certain others. Even with GMs - though a potential GM is obviously more difficult to analyze than a potential player, there are usually indications somewhere in his history. We knew, for example, that Jack Zduriencik would have a pretty good idea of what he's doing, and we knew, for example, that Ed Wade would not.

But with field managers, it's just so completely different. Larry Stone talked about Bobby Valentine as a possibility to take over the Mariner job earlier this afternoon, and Valentine is a name that gets a lot of fans excited. A lot of fans would love to see Bobby Valentine in Seattle. But, why? Why would Bobby Valentine be a good fit? Can we really say anything with any degree of certainty about how he'd work out?

What about Daren Brown? Brown's a no-name - a managerial prospect of sorts - but he's been in the organization for a while, and he's familiar with a number of players already on the team. Should the Mariners go the internal route and just take away the interim tag? What are Brown's upsides? What are Brown's downsides? To what degree do we know these to be upsides and downsides?

It becomes an interesting discussion, because different people will start to align themselves with different managerial candidates, even though at no point can we actually say very much at all about how they'd work out. Managerial performance is difficult to analyze. Maybe impossible. We certainly don't have an agreed-upon way to do it for now. And if we don't know how to evaluate managers, we definitely don't know how to predict how managers will do in different situations.

One need look no further than Don Wakamatsu for an example of what I mean. Overall, there wasn't a whole lot that changed about the Mariners between 2009 and 2010. Based on team performance and clubhouse morale, I think most would say that Wak was a good manager in 2009. Based on team performance and clubhouse morale, I think most would say that Wak was a bad manager in 2010. How did that happen? Who could have possible predicted it? Who could have known that one of last year's more successful managers would go on to be one of this year's greatest failures, especially with Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Sweeney remaining on the roster?

People will speculate about options to fill the Mariners' managerial vacancy. Later, we''ll get something of an interview list. Names will come out. People, in turn, will discuss those names, and discuss their perceived strengths and weaknesses. This guy has experience managing young teams. This guy rides pitchers too hard. This guy has a history of confrontation. This guy is a hardass. This guy is a player's manager. And so on.

And fans will select their favorite candidates, based on their favorite characteristics. I know a lot of fans want to see the Mariners hire someone fiery, so they'll root for the most fiery candidate. Other fans want someone more cerebral, so they'll root for the candidate who talks about OBP and platoon splits and leverage.

But what we have to realize is that, in the end, we just can't really predict who'll fit and who'll flop. We can prefer certain candidates over others - and we all invariably will - but we can't predict who'll succeed, and for that reason I will caution against getting too invested. There's just little sense in getting super excited or super disappointed about whoever the Mariners hire, because we won't actually know if he's a good hire until the season is well underway. And even then, who's to say about the season that follows?

1 recs  |  159 comments

Comments

At first I was going to say that we can judge managers by whether or not they bat Lopez 4th.

But then I remembered that for some odd reason Jose Lopez tries to hit a certain way based on his position in the lineup, and I’m guessing these managers are worried that if he bats somewhere else he’d become even worse.

I can't really blame any manager for any lineup they put together with this sack of crap team
This is what I keep coming back to.
Oh, that's right, we suck.
Maybe it's because Hargrove forced him to bunt all the time when he was in the two hole.
I hear a certain Cubs manager will be available.
Jim Lefebvre?

Jim Riggleman?
Don Baylor?
Rene Lacheman?

Dick Williams needs a gig
Don Zimmer works for the Rays
Boy are you going to have egg on your face when we hire World Series Champion Mike Sweeney.
Not to mention he'll be a player manager
I predict we will hire Anthony Rendon

Purely to avoid draft hype.

I find myself uninterested in who winds up managing this team.

Which is a stark contrast from my old line of thinking that anything is better than Hargrove/McLaren.

Welcome!
I think I prefer this feeling!

They won’t have to deal with managing Griffey. If they can manage the bullpen and lineups decently and get the team to not hate him I’ll be satisfied!

Did Lou Piniella retire or "retire"?

I heard he got along swimmingly with the front office

STOP
No
Lou Piniella is not a viable option for the 2011 Mariners, and never was
And I was never serious
It's hard to interpret tone in writing.
Did Piniella get along with the front office?
I don't think he gave a damn about the front office one way or the other really
That's why I liked him.

He didn’t give a shit. I like that attitude. Come out, do your job and go home.

It seemed like every July and August

He was blustering about a lack of personnel moves, lack of action from the front office … besides wanting to get closer to home, I thought this was a reason for him wanting to leave in the first place.

He went in to Lincoln's office in 2002 and lit Lincoln up.

That was the beginning of the end for him here and he will never be back as long as Lincoln drives this bus. I’m not sure if Lou’s issues were ever with the GM’s he worked with as much as he had issues with Howard and Chuck.

And my comment comes full circle

thanks

Except we can't tell if you were serious or not
I'd like to see him come back for a day just to publicly get in Lincoln's face once and quit.

I do not like the upper management of the mariners.

Wonder what he was like then he was GM of the Yankees.
I don't disagree,

But has it been outlined why anywhere? The connection is obvious so people are going to be asking.

Why?

BECAUSE IT’S NOT 1995 ANY MORE IS MOST OF THE REASON WHY

sorry about that.

but to answer seriously, it’s because he’s retiring. And because he’s not good at handling pitchers. And because he hates inexperienced players.

The Cubs are really shitting the bed right now too
Yep, this too
I just want Rick Adair back

I can’t care about the manager, I’m more concerned about the pitching coach.

Rick Adair may have broken Brandon League and if he didn't do that he certainly hasn't told him to throw more splitters.
I can't believe he broke Ryan Roland-Smith.
I approve of anything that allows for the mental jiu-jitsu absolving Hyphen of all blame.
Personally, I think we should bring back McLaren, as he fixed Lopez, while every other manager broke him.
Personally, I agree with almost everything joof says
FASTBALL FASTBALL FASTBALL
Why do you hate all the Mariner pitchers?
I'm telling you, Eric Byrnes.
Pat Borders
He and all his kids could rent the Moyer's house!
If it's not Bobby Valentine I will kill myself on Opening Day.
I'm open to this idea.
You have said you would kill yourself too many times now for this to be true.

Don’t want to be the boy who cried wolf.

Eventually the wolf came around and the boy blew his brains out after losing the NFC championship game in Arizona.
Robert is a serial reincarnator. Every time he dies, he returns in a new for with the same hatred of PDX.
But he permanently loses 10% of his brain each time.
This sounds like the greatest deal in the world.
You'd get to die and be retarded!
Eventually, he'll show up to a LL meetup in a Red Sox jersey and talking about how the team just needs some RBI guys.
You are the girlfriend who threatens to kill herself if she gets dumped.
I broke up with her years ago, she looked nothing like Robert
I'm really hoping it's Brian Bannister.
I think we should just not have a manager because all of them are terrible
Lets go Morgan Ensberg!
This is the only idea I can really get behind.
I just want someone with a brain

Someone who doesn’t kill young pitchers and understands that young players may not put up great stats but need a chance to develop. Also, if they know to use their better relievers in high leverage situations, that would be nice too.

A brain you say? Good news!

For some reason I thought Wak was this guy

He seemed to have the necessary experience as a bench coach with young teams to understand how to create opportunities for success. The relievers thing, I just don’t know. Have the Mariners ever had a manager who utilized the bullpen optimally – Nelson to Rhodes to Sasaki doesn’t count as management. Anyone of us could have figured that out in 2001.

I can't be in favor of Valentine after hearing him on BTN stating that building a team based around

good defense is a bad concept just like money ball and on-base percentage. He flat out stated those things have proven to be failed concepts.

Good thing the manager doesn't build the team.
I would think you want a GM and manager to be on the same page in regards to

team building and what are important characteristics of the players assembled on the 25 man roster.

I'm gonna say that most managers agree with what Valentine said, if not all. Manny Acta might be the one exception.
What Mariner John said

Most baseball managers are traditionalist guys. They’re going to want a traditionally built team. Jack is certainly going to try and give him that. Most teams aren’t built entirely on OBP or defense or pitching or whatever. Most teams have some power, some on-base ability, some speed, some defense (unless you’re the Mariners).

All Jack needs to do is give him a team that can win.

I also think you may be misrepresenting what Valentine said, though I probably didn’t hear the same exact broadcasts as you. I think if you were to tell him “you should build a team on power” he would also say that would fail. I think he’s in favor of a more well-rounded approach as opposed to being very strong in one area. As I think most teams, general managers, managers, and fans would be. That’s not to say you can’t succeed by being only very strong in one area (which is where Valentine might disagree).

I'm not misrepresenting him. He flat out said that the whole concept of moneyball

and OBP has proven to be a failure. He said that building around defense will result in the same failure for teams.

Seriously, how can anybody claim that building an offense around OBP is not the way to go? That makes zero sense to me and I’m not sure “most” managers would agree with that statement.

I really don't think he's saying that you don't need high OBP players

but I can’t say much without watching his comments firsthand. And certainly you could build an offense around power, for what it’s worth.

I actually liked Valentine before I heard these comments, so I'm not trying to paint

him in a bad light cause I hate the guy. His comments though seemed ignorant with pretty much no reasoning to back them up other than the fact he’s old school and these concepts are new school.

That being I think as Jeff pointed out, managing is more about leadership and getting your guys to play hard and buy into the team. So his distaste towards new stats and what not probably would have little effect on his ability to lead well.

However, as pointed out somewhere in these comments, it has been rumored for quite awhile that Valentine wants say in personnel decisions. Therefore, his comments about defense and OBP shouldn’t be dismissed when talking about him as a prospective manager.

Any manager who wants to make personnel decisions can go fuck themselves.
Well fuck those guys.

Hire someone that’s not retarded.

Good luck finding a manager that's not retarded.

I don’t think it’s an unreasonable view to think you can’t build a team from one area of strength, even if there are countless counterexamples (such as this years Padres). But mostly, I just don’t think it should be the utmost concern with a manager. In large part, he doesn’t build the team.

For all we know, Wak was all on board with the defense-first, high-OBP mentality. He also made fucking retarded strategic decisions.

But Bobby apparently wants to help build the team.

They say (you know, they) that was one of the reasons talks with the Marlins didn’t go very far— he wanted too much control over personnel

Yeah but fake moustache.
Well allow me to retort

One often overlooked criteria for judging a manager is how well they run their spring training.

This is something on which I think anyone who visits Peoria in the Spring can report. Are guys keeping busy, or are many just watching others do work? Are out of shape stars getting game ready, or are they screen printing banners for the ultimate practical joke?

If I recall correctly, Earl Weaver spent a chapter in his book on how important it is to get guys ready for the season. Though the game scores are meaningless, spring training sets the tone for the year, establishes discipline early, prepares rookies and veterans for the upcoming season, and generally is a reflection of how well a manager can coordinate his staff and players.

God stop talking about Anthony Rendon
Why can't the Mariners make Morgan Freeman the voice of the Manager?

The team hires whom every they want. But when the manager has to speak he writes down his answer and Morgan Freeman reads the card.

No matter how bad the team played I would at least feel good about listening to the manager at the end each game.

I would also accept

James Earl Jones.

But let either one be the full manager, not just the voice, and have them base all their decisions on internet fan polls. “Lopez, the fans vote ‘hit homerz’, so do that”.

My vote is for

Samuel L. Jackson.

Pinella should come back. He'd fill some seats in Safeco at least.
Like Griffey!
Yes, Lou probably can only toss a base half as far as he used to!
Griffey would come sit at Safeco because of Lou?
I hate you with my entire penis.
Is this a lot of hate?
Depends on which angle you're looking at it.
It's a lot of hate.
I could call it a not tiny by any means but still disappointing amount of hate.
It's a little bit of hate, but it grows on you
The problem is his hate grows on everyone. No discretion at all.
I heard his hate was often premature
Okay it's a good amount of hate.

Like slightly above average. It’s the 2010 Mariners rotation of hate.

NOOOOOOOOOOO

I wish I could auto post a “Stop” to everyone who suggests bringing Lou back and, in slightly unrelated matters, all Cubs fans.

I really wouldn't mind Cubs fans at all if they understood that we really don't care about the Cubs.
My experience in Chicago this summer leads me to believe that Cubs fans

don’t care about the Cubs.

I disagree with your opinion and feel that you should connect a car battery to your genitals.
Which part of the above FUCK YOU didn't make sense?
Screw it - Daren Brown
Turn it into a promotion

Every game one lucky fan gets to be manager for the day. For away games, magic 8 ball manned by Tui the new team mascot.

Ichiro! for starting pitcher.
:(

I have full confidence that Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong will become overly involved, and screw it up.

I'm really just worried about the relationship between HowChuck and Z.

The worse and worse this season gets, the thought keeps brewing that its possible Z’s job might be in jeopardy.
I wish there was someway of getting confirmation from someone on the inside that it’s foolish to be worried.

All I hope is that they've given him some private guarantee that he's sticking around for a little while

A GM who thinks his job is in danger does short-sighted things, and if Jack has one weakness, it’s some of his short-sighted moves.

Two years for a GM would be a stupid short tenure.
He'll make it through next year. The concern is whether he's going to be pressured into

making short sighted moves to make 2011 a contending year, when most M’s fans feel we need to use 2011 as a way to get our young talent experience, and clear some more bad money (Bradley, Wilson, etc) off the books

Most of the names that have bandied about have been fairly uninspring to me at least.

For instance of those on Stone’s initial list I only feel various degrees of loathing or indifference.

For some reason I’ve been hoping that the Cubs are dumb enough to decide to pay through the nose to bring in Girardi or Valentine and allow Z to go after Ryne Sandberg. I have no reason to believe Sandberg would actually be a good idea or that the Cubs would actually pass on him, but I have decided I wouldn’t mind seeing this happen.

A totally random thought - bring back BoMel

BoMel got jobbed by Bavasi and that’s what really started the down spiral. BoMel won in ’Zona. Why not?

We will never ever bring him back

If only for the reason that him not being around would discourage people from saying things like BoMel.

Because his name is Bob Melvin and he managed in Arizona
Bob Melvin was 337-340 in Arizona.

So besides the fluky 90-72 in 2007, he did not win in Arizona.

He won 337 times! He's a proven winner!
Don Wakamatsu won like 120 times!
He's less than half-proven!
Bob Melvin was a statistically inclined manager in the sense that he input all the names on the roster into an excel sheet and auto arranged it by age.
I am against bringing in any big name manager

I’m worried they’d want to WIN NOW at all costs and undermine the GM

I really don't care that much about the Manager.

I guess, it is important to have someone who can manage young players. With Ackley, Smoak, Saunders and Pineda as major pieces of the future the new manager can’t “miss use them.”

 I think the M’s larger issues are DH, Third base, Catcher, starting pitching and the bull pen.

Oh and shortstop.
Let me make a suggestion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinellas_County,_Florida

A whole county of people? I like where you're taking this boss.

Go on.

The Tampa Bay Rays play in Pinellas County

We should be more like them and not have Lou Pinella as manager anymore and become really good.

Seems like a idea.
Why is Lou such a bad manager?

I get the impression that a lot of you like a guy that just tells it like it is. And if I remember correctly, he certainly did.

Do you just not like a manager to get all fired up and throw bases around?

Did he put shitty lineups out?

Did he not make the right in-game decisions on whether to steal, bunt, hit-and-run, etc?

I don’t get it. Why the elitist attitudes without giving a shred of evidence about why he was a bad manager?

From what I have seen he is just bad at managing a ball game and he seems to really dislike rookies and young players n general.

That would be a terrible fit for this team.

He never learned how to pronounce Raul Ibanez's name.
That's a pretty easy name to pronounce.
I was never a fan of his bullpen management.

I found throwing bases around and acting like a jackass funny when I was a dumbass teenager. Now that I’m a little older, I find that sort of behavior pointless at best.

Lou may or may not be a good manager, but he wasn’t the reason the Mariners were good when he was here. If Wak was manager back then, I’d bet they would have very similar records.

He destroys pitchers arms and he distrusts any player with less than 5 years experience

but for me it’s more than that. People want Piniella back because he’s a big slab of OMG1995WASSOAWESOME nostalgia, regardless of the facts, those being that he is retiring and that he isn’t the best candidate. I want no part of that – 1995 was 15 years ago. People need to let it go.

I would love to have another 1995, but fully realize that it is not in fact going to happen
Okay, this is better.

Kirk,
Disliking rookies is a good point. I never knew that about him and that would make for a bad fit with this club.

Jed,
I also found Lou’s jackassery entertaining when I was a teenager. It might be pointless, but is it pointless if seattle fans want to come out and watch that in person? I don’t know if we can say whether or not he actually generates revenue, but that can’t be a bad thing if he would fill seats.

pdb,
I don’t think its really about 1995. At least not for me. I think, as Jed said, that whether it was Lou, Wak, or McLaren, we would have had the same record with the talent we had back then. That tells me that the manager doesn’t have much influence on the outcome of a season. So why would it be bad if we hired a manager that could provide a little bit of entertainment on the field? ISn’t that what baseball is supposed to be? Entertaining? If we win, hey it’s fun! If we lose, hey at least we saw a base get tossed.

Don’t get me wrong here, I’m not advocating we bring Lou back.. but I wouldn’t go blowing up children’s hospitals if we did.

I feel the same about bringing Lou Piniella back as I did about bringing 2010 Griffey back

For you, it’s not about 1995, but for the Mariner marketing department, it definitely would be. if Piniella were indeed brought back (which he won’t be, rendering all this academic), it would be at least in part to appease the casual fan who might or might not come to the ballpark. “Hey it’s Lou! He’s back! Remember how awesome he was? Let’s go to a game!”

If the Mariners are serious about rebuilding, Piniella isn’t even in the conversation at this point.

Baseball is supposed to be entertaining, but Piniella himself has said he doesn’t toss bases or anything like that any more, which basically just makes him another grizzled old manager. Not a lot of entertainment value there.

I'm not sure if people go to the ballpark to see a manager.

Maybe on a “Lou Pinella Appreciation Day”, but I’m highly doubtful it would help increase attendance on a regular basis.

To me the main entertainment is the ballgame and putting a good team (or at the least good players) on the field. At this point, the only entertaining things to watch on this team are Felix, Ichiro, and Franklin in CF. The rest is just hoping the game will end quickly and that the young guys will improve.

I don't think anyone goes to see the manager either.

But the possibility of seeing a blowup from the manager would add a little flair to the overall package. In my opinion anyway.

He messed with player's swings for no reason other than he could.

He knew nothing about pitching yet meddled big time and overused the bullpen.
He never adjusted his approach to fit the player.
The only personalities that worked well with him were Jay Buhner types.
He would let superstars get away with murder but shit all over the 25th man on the roster like it was their fault the team sucked.
He played hunches all the time and like a gambler would tell you 100 times about the one that worked but never mention the 99 that failed.

Should I go on?

Not really.

I don’t know why he would be meddling with pitchers and hitters when there are other coaches for that. And I don’t think that the manager should adjust his approach to fit the player. At least not with the rookies, because the players are there to play for the manager. Not the other way around.

You can say the players are there to play for the manager

but it doesn’t really work that way anymore, with the salaries and the union behind them.

Well, I have been through multiple management training courses and that is dead wrong.

If you want the best out of people you learn how to get it. Just plain demanding it is ignorant.

One of Drayer's thoughts on what went wrong with Wak this year was that he did not adapt

she noted Sweeney saying he was the same person as last year, and opined that was part of the problem— people & events changed, and he did not

And I have been through exactly zero, so I stand corrected.

I guess I just don’t think that a manager should bend over backwards for employees that aren’t on the same page. I would think that it would be best to find someone else rather than cater to employees that have special needs.

But now that I think about it, I guess it shouldn’t be as cut and dry as that. A manager should be a little flexible to get the desired results.

But my point is that generally speaking, everyone who comments here is pretty sharp, and is quick to give insight to these types of discussions.

I just wanted to get past the “GOD NO and FUCK YOU” stage and figure out why people had their opinions of Lou.

And again, I am not advocating bringing him back. But I would like a manager that can light a fire when needed.

People react differently to criticism.

I for instance have always enjoyed direct and even harsh criticism at work. It lets me know right away what I need to improve on. Some people wilt under that approach though. One way to appease Lou was to give him 25 guys that he couldn’t fuck up. The problem is that you limit the talent pool by doing that.

Could you imagine him in a franchise like the M's, where GMZ has stated you have to build from within?

He’d be right back to his old bullshit of undermining the GM in the press and demanding guaranteed veteran players while never playing the rookies or shitting all over them at every failure in a clutch situation. Seriously, it was a fun ride for the times but now? Fuck that guy. There’s lots of guys, I hope we go get one of those other ones.

His input on personnel was ... erratic

he decided at various times he didn’t want Guillen (fragile!), Podsednik (well…), Ibanez (the kid won’t hit) & David Bell (they just rubbed each other the wrong way, it seems). To replace Bell he specifically asked for Cirillo (over Scott Rolen). In his quest for a bat he asked for Al Martin— he also asked for Carl Everett twice, but the trade(s) never happened. Unconfirmed is that he was willing to part with Varitek …

As Bob Finnigan (so, take a big grain of salt here) once put it, “Piniella espoused the Yankees’ principle of trading prospects for veteran help, even rent-a-players. It often helped, but it sometimes hurt years later. Woodward often heeded Piniella’s urging to acquire veterans. While Woodward is responsible for the Derek Lowe/Jason Varitek fiasco with Boston, Piniella probably had a hand in sending Joe Mays and David Ortiz to Minnesota, Mike Hampton to Houston, Jose Cruz to Toronto, Fernando Vina to the New York Mets , Raul Ibanez to Kansas City and Denny Stark to Colorado.”

This is all news to me.

Was his input on personnel erratic only in hindsight? Could anyone tell how these prospects were going to turn out at the time? I honestly don’t know.

Denny Stark to Colorado?

Really, that’s the guy we’re missing from that deal?

Who are we missing from that deal?
What about an 80 year old Whitey Herzog?!

That way we can keep the majority of this shitty team and REALLY play like the Cardinals! This is a flawless plan.

I don't give a shit who the Mariners next manager is

I only care about who it’s not. I don’t want a guy with a reputation for screwing with young players or overusing pitchers. I’d honestly prefer if it GMZ just grabs some virtually random organizational soldier and promotes them to manager. If GMZ is doing it right, this guy will literally do nothing outside of keeping his players happy all season.

It must be incredibly difficult to find a manager that thinks outside the box.

Consider that they have to come up within their own ranks. That is, as one gets promoted he’ll bring along people he knows. I can imagine there must be pressure to conform. Unwritten rules, play the game the right way, etc. Could you imagine being the guy that puts your best bullpen guy into high leverage situations and closer be damned? Or any other situation that breaks with tradition, traditions that are wrong minded.

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