Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles

by Matthew on Aug 16, 2010 1:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 46-72
Baltimore: 41-77

	MARINERS	Δ Ms	ORIOLES	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-136.1 (30th)	1.4	-64.4 (27th)	Baltimore
FIELDING (UZR)	10.8 (9th)	-3.4	-40.2 (30th)	Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)	7.0 (17th)	-1.3	-52.1 (27th)	Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)	-25.9 (28th)	0.3	0.7 (16th)	Baltimore
OVERALL(RAA)	-144.3 (26th)	-3.1	-156.0 (29th)	SEATTLE

AHHHHH! Two teams in a row that we're better than? What is the probability?!*

The Mariners stand at 7-6 in the month of August and are at risk of generating their second above .500 record in a month this season after June's 14-13 mark. Luckily the next three opponents are the Yankees, Rangers and Twins. That should put us back in our place.

By the way, if you took the overall runs against average number from above and assumed it captured everything you would want to capture from a true talent standpoint (it doesn't - missing baserunning for one but that's a small factor), the expected record for the Mariners would be 45-73. The Mariners haven't really been unlucky in terms of of turning runs into wins and their BaseRuns matches up quite close with their actual runs scored and allowed. Given how punchless the offense is, they haven't been missing out by stranding too many runners or hitting poorly in clutch situations.

Where they've been unlucky is almost entirely in getting those hits on their batted balls in the first place. That is what wOBAr looks at and it currently has the Mariners at a touch under 70 fewer runs than they would normally be assumed to achieve based on prior seasons.

*2.3% assuming a non-interleague portion of the schedule. Facts!

Mon Aug 16, 16:05: Doug Fister vs. Brad Bergesen

Tue Aug 17, 16:05: Luke French* vs. Kevin Millwood

Wed Aug 18, 16:05: David Pauley vs. Jeremy Guthrie

This is one boring collection of six pitchers. David Pauley has the best stuff in this group. Mariners! Orioles! Baseball!

Doug Fister

Luke French

David Pauley

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	58%	88	20	65	60
Change	19%	81	45	80	70
Curve	8%	74	50	25	80
Sinker	8%	88	25	50	65
Slider	7%	83	35	80	30
Overall	--	--	20	70	65

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	51%	88	20	40	25
Change	26%	80	35	75	20
Slider	16%	79	60	40	20
Sinker	7%	79	80	80	20
Overall	--	--	40	65	20

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	45%	89	20	60	40
Change	16%	82	80	40	50
Curve	16%	76	70	25	75
Sinker	13%	89	20	75	65
Slider	10%	83	60	80	75
Overall	--	--	55	50	60

Brad Bergesen

Kevin Millwood

Jeremy Guthrie

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	39%	90	25	80	45
Slider	25%	82	35	50	80
Sinker	23%	89	25	50	65
Change	12%	83	25	45	65
Overall	--	--	25	65	75

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	51%	90	50	70	50
Sinker	16%	89	30	40	40
Slider	15%	85	30	75	35
Curve	9%	73	65	40	40
Change	8%	83	30	30	65
Overall	--	--	35	55	45

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	60%	93	45	40	50
Slider	20%	84	30	55	35
Change	13%	85	45	65	50
Curve	5%	75	20	35	30
Overall	--	--	30	45	40

0 recs | 34 comments

Comments

Kevin Millwood's audition for the M's 2011 rotation does not excite you?

I am only half joking. I think.

Millwood has a 4.59 xFIP versus 5.03 FIP (due to 1.57 HR rate). There might be some bad luck there, as his 13% HR/FB is a little high, and he has a 342 BABIP (although a high line drive rate of 21.9% explains part of that). The horrible 5.74 ERA should keep his price dirt cheap this offseason, but he might have another year left as perfectly adequate back of rotation innings eater. And as with most pitchers, Safeco and the defense could help him look better than his actual performance. I guess he would not be the worst idea as a dumpster dive if the organization cannot find better options elsewhere.

G_ - August 16, 2010 reply

Ahh...

Brings back memories.

ThundaPC - August 16, 2010 reply

That's probably why I thought of it

Of course, I am not sure anyone on the baseball side from then is still around. If I remember correctly, the blogosphere wanted Millwood to sign here too.

G_ - August 16, 2010 reply

Fuck that, I wanted Jason Schmidt.

Woops.

Goose - August 16, 2010 reply

I truly can't believe that 2 major league teams are starting 5 guys worse than David Pauley in the same series.

HititHere - August 16, 2010 reply

Fister>Pauley, but that's due to Fister's better command

Pauley’s stuff is definitely better. I thought Guthrie had decent stuff, though.

Fuckmikereilly - August 16, 2010 reply

AHHHHH! Two teams in a row that we're better than? What are the odds?!*

Actually that 2.3% is a probability, not odds. The odds are the ratio of the probability it happens to the probability that it doesn’t, that means the odds are about 1:49, or if you are gambling, the odds against are 49:1 :)

New England Fan - August 16, 2010 reply

And I'm assuming that the 2.3% was arrived at because there are 13 other teams in the league

and two of them are worse than us. (Or are there three?) So 2/13 × 2/13=.0237
But wouldn’t it be 2/13 × 1/12 since we could not face the same team twice in a row? If that were the case, then probability would be 1.3%. Or 1:78, 78:1.

joey90 - August 16, 2010 reply