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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Anaheim Angels

Seattle: 55-85
Anaheim: 67-73

MARINERS Δ Ms ANGELS EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-155.6 (30th) -8.5 -46.6 (24th) Anaheim
FIELDING (UZR) 11.9 (11th) 1.1 -14.0 (21st) Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)
12.5 (14th) -1.2 -13.5 (21st) Seattle
BULLPEN (tRA)
-28.6 (29th) -1.0 -6.6 (18th) Anaheim
OVERALL(RAA)
-159.8 (26th) -9.6 -80.7 (23rd) ANAHEIM

 

 

 

 

 

The delta column is based on the last recorded figures which was two series ago. The Series Preview did not run last time thanks to the holiday weekend and the early start on Monday.

What, you want more on the Mariners? No. Go pay attention to one of the organizational teams in the playoffs. It's way more fun.

Fri Sep 10, 19:05: David Pauley vs. Jered Weaver

Sat Sep 11, 18:05: Felix Hernandez vs. Ervin Santana

Sun Sep 12, 12:35: Jason Vargas* vs. Dan Haren

It worries me that David Pauley has been so serviceable as a Mariner starter. I don't mind picking up relievers off the scrap heap, but starters? I don't think I will ever trust Pauley. Fun note: By Statcorner, Pauley's groundball rate is higher than Felix's in 2010.

The difference between 2009 Jason Vargas and 2010 Jason Vargas is that this year he is throwing more strikes. He currently possesses the exact same whiff rate (7.7%), but his overall strike rate has risen about four points. His batted balls are very similar. Two outs away from 170 innings on the year, my hope is that Vargas is shut down just as soon as some relief starters can be procured from the minors.

Ditto on Fister as well. Better safe than sorry at this point. They've both established themselves as early favorites for the 2011 rotation. Nothing either does in the next three or four starts will change that. Put Sean White and Garrett Olson into the rotation for funsies!

David Pauley
Felix Hernandez
Jason Vargas
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 42% 89 25 65 60
Change 21% 83 60 45 65
Curve 17% 76 75 20 80
Sinker 12% 89 20 70 70
Slider 8% 83 40 80 75
Overall -- -- 50 40 75
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 68% 94 75 60 75
Curve 13% 83 60 50 75
Change 10% 88 75 75 80
Slider 9% 87 75 65 75
Overall -- -- 75 65 75
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 39% 87 50 40 30
Sinker 27% 86 30 65 35
Change 25% 79 75 70 35
Slider 7% 83 20 40 35
Overall -- -- 50 60 30

Jered Weaver Ervin Santana Dan Haren
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 45% 90 70 40 20
Change 16% 80 80 80 45
Slider 16% 79 45 30 40
Sinker 13% 89 60 55 20
Curve 10% 72 65 80 25
Overall -- -- 75 65 20
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 58% 93 40 55 45
Slider 35% 83 75 60 25
Change 7% 85 40 55 45
Overall -- -- 70 65 30
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 40% 91 50 70 30
Sinker 19% 88 70 65 35
Slider 14% 84 70 75 75
Curve 14% 79 50 80 45
Change 13% 85 80 65 75
Overall -- -- 75 75 45

0 recs  |  12 comments

Comments

Just give them a break and put RRS back in

Put RRS back in for both of them, even. Twice as many chances to turn things around.

Felix, RRS, Pauley, RRS, French?
I thought about that

but honestly, I think I’d rather see RRS get time in the bullpen. 50/50 though and I wouldn’t be upset either way.

Do you see him as a LOOGY or long man in the long term?
I don't know if this was mentioned on television or radio, but RRS was warming up in the bullpen on Wednesday night in Oakland.
I wish Felix would throw his change 10% more and his fastball 10% less

In Matthew’s system, the change is better than the fastball in every measure. The slider is also better than the fastball in BB, but sliders are generally considered to cause a higher incidence of arm trouble so I’d prefer that percentage not increase.

This also fits with the Fangraphs pitch type values. Here is the pitch type value in runs per 100 pitches for 2010:
FB 1.15
SL 1.48
CB 0.59
CH 2.82

It's tough to play that game.

Is his change up as effective as it is because he throws his fastball 68% of the time? Is his fastball as effective as it is because hitters don’t know when to expect the change?

Well, at least one game will be worth watching.

The Pauley start! Duh!

There might be some interesting offense in that one, actually...

Maybe.

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