That's about as low as it gets. It helps, I suppose, that Felix wasn't at the tippy top of his game. He didn't strike out 15 guys. He didn't keep every single ball in the infield. He didn't have pinpoint command, as four Jays reached on walks. It's not like the Mariners wasted the best start Felix has ever made.
But, come on. Felix allowed two hits. He allowed two hits, and one run - a solo homer by the league's top homer hitter in the bottom of the first. Felix set his team up to win this game. And his team did nothing about it, against Shawn diddly god damned Hill. It's not like they were facing Roy Halladay, or Clay Buchholz, or Shaun Marcum, or whoever. This was Shawn Hill. This was a borderline junk-balling righty who couldn't cut it with the Nationals.
Nothing. This was the 34th time on the year that a pitcher has gone at least eight innings and allowed two hits. 28 of those times, the pitcher got the win. This should be a gimme. Against Shawn Hill, this should be a gimme. And yet, the Mariners let Felix down. For the seventh time this season, the Mariners failed to get Felix a win when he allowed two runs or less. And for the first time - rather surprisingly the first time - they went so far as to give him a loss.
That sucks. That's embarrassing. On a good team, or even on an average team, Felix could have 20 wins by now. Instead he has 12, to go nicely with his 12 losses. Felix has a worse record than Randy Wolf.
I'll say this - in a weird way, this game might actually help Felix's Cy Young case. Felix just lost 1-0 in a game against a bad pitcher. This was Felix's entire season in eight innings. The argument about the Cy Young and pitcher wins has been raging for several weeks, and this game lends the pro-Felix side a good deal of support. You can't get a win when your team doesn't score. This game keeps the matter of Felix's pathetic run support more fresh than, say, a 4-3 loss, or a 7-2 win, and that's critical for swaying the voters. The voters have to understand what Felix has been dealing with. This game - with its score, and its timing - helps.
And, if Felix ends up winning the Cy Young, then much of the frustration melts away. Why have we been frustrated over Felix's lack of wins? Because wins make Felix happy, and we like when Felix is happy. Why do wins make Felix happy? Because they aid in his pursuit of pitching's highest honor. By no means is it all about individual awards, but in a season like this, they certainly take on a greater importance. They help to motivate, in the absence of many other motivators. If Felix is able to take the Cy Young, then it won't really matter anymore how few wins he picked up, because those wins were just one means to an award-winning end. The award is the goal.
But sitting here, right now - how many of us feel real confident in Felix's chances? How many of us really believe that enough voters are going to overlook the low win total to give Felix the award he probably deserves? What makes this game frustrating is that we've seen it before. Even though this particular game may have helped Felix's chances more than hurt it, the fact that he's failed to earn a win on seven different occasions that he allowed two runs or less has definitely reduced his odds of winning overall. You know how often that's happened to CC Sabathia? Twice. Sabathia is 13-0 over 15 starts in which he allowed two or fewer runs. In Felix's 19 such starts, he's 12-1.
It isn't fair. You know who has the highest run support on the Mariners? Doug Fister. No offense to Doug Fister, but why not Felix?
The 2010 Seattle Mariners have had a number of failures. If it turns out they failed to score enough runs to get Felix Hernandez the AL Cy Young award in a magnificent season, that will stand as perhaps their greatest.
2 recs | 27 comments
Another fine game thought post.
I am really expecting one that goes something like this:
58-100 Game Thought:
FUCKBALLS.
—comments—d0nkey - September 23, 2010
I expect to see Felix be the bridesmaid in the Cy Young voting.
I have this feeling that some of the voters will not for for Felix because of the wins. Not necessarily because they believe they count, but because with all of the attention this is getting there are two sides: traditionalists and the sabre crowd. And I fear a lot of people will side with the traditionalists simply because they don’t want to adapt to new ways of thinking.
Would 2nd place for Felix be a win? I tend to think so. Of course I feel he should win it outright, if the season ended right now. But if this helps people see why the old-school way of thinking is flawed, then I think that would be good for the game in the long run.
d0nkey - September 23, 2010
This game is proof of the argument to abolish the DH
Let Felix hit and he’ll get his own damn runs.
lemonverbena - September 23, 2010
DH hasn't truly helped the Mariners since Edgar left.
Maybe we can switch to the National league? i hear Vargas swings a mean bat!
ambrosia2112 - September 23, 2010
We should test the psycological impact of motivation on performance.
I don’t know Felix, but it seems he gets quite emotionally involved in his pitching and has nothing to play for this year outside winning the CY, nothing else to motivate himself, to fuel that emotion. I’m sure he believes that getting “wins” as a statistic improves his CY chances. He is a gifted athlete, likely quite strong. He hit a home run off of Johan Santana once. I’d actually like to see him at DH, although it will never happen because of injury and PR concerns. I just want to see if there is any chance that such a powerful motivation and emotional involvement could magically cause him to hit well, even though he is a pitcher. Just for fun.
_David_ - September 23, 2010
I love you Ichiro.
Double06 - September 23, 2010
This was pretty good too. I really want to see him save one game as a Mariner
d0nkey - September 23, 2010
.
In 20 games where he has ended up with a L or ND, Felix has allowed 53 earned runs.
In 12 games where he has ended up with a L or ND, C.C. has allowed 41 earned runs.
Felix has allowed 9 ER in his 12 wins.
C.C. has allowed 31 ER in his 20 wins.
(Ignoring the fact that ER are NOT the best way to evaluate a pitcher. Just an interesting bit of numbers.)
Matt Erickson - September 23, 2010
Absolutely crazy.
Wilder. - September 23, 2010
I'm going to argue that Felix had very close to his best stuff.
His strike percentage for the game was the same (64.5) as his strike percentage on the season (64.6) His ground ball to fly ball ratio was 15/4. His velocity was there, as was the change up and especially the curve ball movement. The curve ball location was probably the only thing partially missing. I think Felix thought about Toronto’s crazy home run hitting prowess, especially at home, and decided to essentially sacrifice both strikeouts and walk prevention in favor of preventing home runs. I know trading home runs for walks seems counter-intuitive, but he got two GIDPs, and I only remember two real outfield fly balls, and one was a weak HR from a HR crazy hitter.
_David_ - September 23, 2010
Instead of "best stuff" in the header I meant to say Felix was almost at his best.
_David_ - September 23, 2010
I think you hit it on the head when you said this Jeff
scottg02 - September 23, 2010
Blockquote fail
Sorry
scottg02 - September 23, 2010
Perfect analogy for when people talk about Felix and pressure of being in a playoff race.
Pressure? Every Felix start is like the Battletoads hover bike level;
one life or game over.
w00tah - September 23, 2010
I never beat that damn thing.
appleshampoo - September 23, 2010
CC Sabathia should win the CY, not because of his win total, but because he's the best pitcher on the best team.
Felix is the best player in the 2nd worst team in baseball. Felix has a better season statistically, but this award should go to the most outstanding pitcher in each league, and in the AL this year, it’s CC Sabathia.
brian_sun - September 23, 2010
What?
Jeff Sullivan - September 23, 2010
This isn't me being dismissive
I’m legitimately curious. What? What do you mean?
Jeff Sullivan - September 23, 2010
I believe the voting criteria for the CY is the most outstanding pitcher in each league.
I think the most outstanding pitcher should generally come from a contending team, not a last place team. So CC. Sabathia has my vote.
brian_sun - September 23, 2010
Why? If a pitcher is the "most outstanding", why should it matter what team he pitches for?
msb - September 23, 2010
You would have something if the word were "valuable"
It is not. It’s “outstanding”. Outstanding strips away all that stuff.
Jeff Sullivan - September 23, 2010
So last year, instead of Zack Greinke, the award should have gone to....
ThundaPC - September 23, 2010
CC of course.
w00tah - September 24, 2010
Guess they should give it to the pitcher with the most wins from the team that takes the World Series then
Kermit. - September 24, 2010
If only CC could get more run support
This wouldn’t even be a contest. I mean last night against the Rays he only gave up 7 runs, and you would think the Yankees could easily cover that deficit with their offense. But no, they let CC down, again.
Pretty important game last night for CC to blow (as far as winning the division goes) so that’s why I’m not really buying the “pressure of a pennant race” argument. It’s already been stated on LL numerous times, but Felix is under a ton of pressure every start as well.
Craptastic-J - September 24, 2010
The most painful thing for me in this fucked-up season has been watching Felix pitch with no run support
ignacio - September 24, 2010
To be fair, Shawn Hill has been farely good, albeit in the NL
He has a career FIP of 4 and xFIP of 4.35 in 200+ innings. His arm staying healthy is the only bad part of him. Unfortunately for Felix, our offense is worse(except Ichiro).
tdot mariner fan - September 24, 2010
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