Jim McIsaac - Getty Images
Dinger hitter!
I'm not writing that as "Michael Pineda Traded For Jesus Montero" because it doesn't look like this is straight up. MLB says that the Mariners and Yankees are finalizing a four-player trade, and Greg Johns says a source tells him the Mariners are including Jose Campos, and the Yankees are including Hector Noesi. So that's what we have. But barring some complete surprise in a physical, Michael Pineda is gone, and Jesus Montero is replacing him (but not really).
We're going to have longer reaction posts later on. Obviously, this is the sort of move that you can't wrap your head around in an instant. Pineda is a top young starting pitcher with five more years of team control. Montero is a top young hitter with six more years of team control (haha!). Campos and Noesi are players too. There are only four players involved - two on each side - but there's so much here. So many countless angles.
But my instant reaction is "I think I'm okay with it but I definitely don't love it." Pineda, obviously, has concerns. He doesn't have a changeup. More important than anything else, he's a hard-throwing young starting pitcher who faces a bunch of health questions. But it's not like Montero is some sort of sure thing. Is he a catcher? Is he a first baseman? Is he a DH? What to make of his .843 OPS in triple-A?
Montero is very young, with very big power, and I'm ecstatic that he's going to play for the Mariners, somewhere. The cost, though, is high, and ultimately what I think makes me the happiest is fuck you, PRINCE FIELDER WATCH, I'm done with you forever!
0 recs | 841 comments
Oh balls.
I’ve always like the Prince Fielder Watch…
RagingAlot - January 13, 2012
I'm in a glass case of emotion right now.
I’ll sort this out later, but initially….Pineda :(
sanford_and_son - January 13, 2012
Same. I like Montero, but Pineda was cool guy. I'll miss him.
SeaKoala - January 13, 2012
I have his autograph. =(
kennerdoloman - January 13, 2012
Just like this.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
GO PRO AND GET UNLIMITED
scout6 - January 13, 2012
Look who's popular!
SeaKoala - January 13, 2012
So where do I find a gif that will stick?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Pineda was punted and the Yankees caught him.
adamhwong - January 13, 2012
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Graham MacAree - January 13, 2012
Definitley not loving this.
Starting rotation is going to be ugly besides Felix until Hultzen and Paxton come up.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Sign Kuroda and I'm alot happier about this.
Goose - January 13, 2012
Agreed.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Sounds like the Yankees already got him
bluemax - January 13, 2012
So did we just trade for a DH that can achieve a league average batting line?
But.. Pineda… noooo.
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
section331 - January 13, 2012
UUUUULLLLLLLD!
ThomasG - January 13, 2012
I don't want to lose Campos :(
Marinerfanjake - January 13, 2012
Well, one thing is for sure
Our farm system ranking just shot up
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
I guess for sure assuming the deal happens
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
I liked the farm system the way it was.
Especially with Campos on the rise.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Don't worry: in the next few years you will hear about how Campos is the second coming of Justin Verlander
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
I can't believe we gave these guys a standing ovation
I would at least like to be kissed first
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Campos may be the real loss
Noesi doesn’t make sense to even things up. It’s the throw ins that the Yanks
always win in trades. I’m hoping there is more to this….
jjmalden - January 13, 2012
I like it quite a bit. I think people are too far down on Montero.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I'd feel about 30% better if Montero were left handed
Corco - January 13, 2012
You still need good right-handed hitters, regardless of your home park
And Montero should be bothered less by Safeco than most righties.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
And the Mariners were truly shit against LHP last year.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
Montero has opposite field power, too. Of his 4 HRs, 3 of them went to RF, and two were no-doubters.
SSS yes, but that’s certainly encouraging.
BrettJMiller - January 13, 2012
His MiLB spray would be more helpful if it's available.
4 is way too small to say much.
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
Scouts rave on the guy's power.
I don’t think that’s ever really been in question. And for a 21 year old, that’s pretty fucking good.
I’m not really worried about Montero hitting, even at SafeCo. It’s the positional problem, much like what others are talking about.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
But Pineda *plus Campos*?
IMHO, Pineda’s worth that by himself. Why the heck would we give up another high-ceiling pitching prospect?
The Ancient Mariner - January 13, 2012
Because we're good in high ceiling pitchers...
and we’re getting more than Montero in return. I trust in Jack Z is what I’m going with, but damn…
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Nobody is so good in high-ceiling pitchers
that they can afford to punt one. More than Montero, yeah; but Noesi isn’t enough to justify sending Campos along, too.
The Ancient Mariner - January 13, 2012
Having depth doesn't mean you trade it casually.
Our chances of getting one of those high ceiling guys to pan out looks a lot better if you KEEP Campos than getting rid of him. You don’t trade away MORE than you have to ever.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
I get that...
I’m just trying to get in Jack Z’s head. I’m actually glad for all Mariners fans, that I’m not really able to do that all that easily or all that well.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
I guess this better than trading away the entire future for today like Bavasi did in 07/08
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Don't try.
We’re fucking nuts.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
This is stupid... you're stupid
I’m screening my calls so I can avoid the M’s ticket office. They need to stop calling, forever.
Luscious James - January 13, 2012
Does it close the coffin lid on your fandom?
Goose - January 13, 2012
At this point we just happen to be a baseball fan and a baseball team
living in close proximity.
Luscious James - January 13, 2012
What an amazing overreaction
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Do they really call you?
Weird.
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
Well, they got a SBN nation log in now...
JAH - January 13, 2012 via mobile
If you are a previous season ticket holder
and have not renewed, they will call you incessantly.
appleshampoo - January 13, 2012
I think I'm more upset about losing Campos than Pineda, to be honest.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
Samsies.
That tips the balance, in my view.
katal - January 13, 2012
Same here. Don't like Montero for Pineda cause Montero is RH DH.. but what the hell
are we doing moving Campos as well?
We could have had this guy for Cliff Lee if we loved his bat so much. Justin Smoak needs a breakout year in a major way
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
I have no idea what to think about this.
ThundaPC - January 13, 2012
It worries me that the yankees, who just saw Jorge Posada retire, believe that Jesus Montero was not their catcher of the future.
katal - January 13, 2012
I agree.
But at the same time they can just go buy one.
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
Oh god, it's true
Not that the M’s don’t need a DH, but….
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
I guess they didn't have the money for Oswalt or Pineda
Poochie - January 13, 2012
The real question is "what do we do with John Jaso?"
perfectstrat - January 13, 2012
I think you mean Olivio
appleshampoo - January 13, 2012
I think you mean Olivo
naviomelo - January 13, 2012
Assuming the M's want to give Montero all the opportunity to succeed / suck at catcher.
I could see them doing a couple of things. The most obvious is dealing Olivo. Another is that they could do a three catcher rotation. Let Montero / Olivo DH and Jaso catch against righties and Olivo DH while Montero C vs. lefties (or alternate).
Probably do some kind of split where Jaso gets about 80 games behind the dish with Olivo and Montero getting about 40 each.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Why would you ever have Olivo DH.
stredarts - January 14, 2012
More right handed bats against lefty pitching.
Presumably against a left hander the ideal line up would be something like
RF – Ichiro
2B – Ackley
1B – Smoak
C – Montero
DH – Olivo
LF – Wells
CF – Gutierrez
SS – Ryan
3B – Figgins / Liddi
What other person would you have DHing against a lefty? If the Mariners are serious about letting Montero learn catching, then he’s going to have to catch some time. You can’t just keep him at DH full time and say “he’s a catcher!”. Doesn’t work that way. As such, there isn’t a better bat on the bench, right now, to handle left handed pitching. So Olivo’s going to be in there somewhere. Naturally this is as the roster sits right now.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
Russ Martin is a pretty good catcher
ubelmann - January 13, 2012
They didn't before...
since they also have Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez on the way.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Sancehz isn't that close.
Romine and Martin will hold down the fort for a while.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Cervelli too.
He’s still there.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
So this means that we will probably keep Walker/Paxton/Hultzen?
voltron27 - January 13, 2012
So...We traded Pineda for a DH??
ARock - January 13, 2012
Sucks balls doesn't it?
Poochie - January 13, 2012
I think Montero was totally overvalued here.
It also usually easier to find hitters on the trade/FA market than pitching. And you tend to pay more with higher risk for pitching.
scout6 - January 13, 2012
Yep
I’d much prefer a team load up on quality cost-controlled pitching and spend most of their free agent money on position players, rather than the other way around. It’s not like free agent position players are anything like a guarantee, but it beats the hell out of the risk you take when spending that money to buy pitching.
nathaniel dawson - January 13, 2012
Which free agent position players?
The market is pretty crap right now, and IMHO you almost always overpay for hitters via free agency.
Smegmalicious - January 13, 2012
You don't overpay for pitchers in free agency?
I’d say that pitching is equally expensive, if not more so. But the real difference in my mind is the risk that comes with committing free agent money to pitchers. Teams usually don’t get as much return on their investment when signing pitchers than they get from position players, which means your free agency dollars aren’t buying as much.
It’s not about this season, or any one season, it’s about a long-term philosophy of positioning your team to not have a need to buy pitching in free agency. The only way you can do that is to have a lot of talented, club control pitchers in hand. Trading away a guy like Michale Pineda makes it harder for the M’s to put themselves in that type of position in the future.
nathaniel dawson - January 14, 2012
My favorite part about this trade is that people can shut up about Smoak vs. Montero now.
ThundaPC - January 13, 2012
Maybe this is a precursor to a Smoak trade
Poochie - January 13, 2012
I reallly wouldn't trade Smoak right now
Not with his value underwater
Corco - January 13, 2012
What if we were getting Mike Trout in return?
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Then I'd be swimming in bliss
Corco - January 13, 2012
Let us finish
Smoak+Paxton+Walker+PTBNL(Hultzen) for Trout is the deal.
playingwithfire - January 13, 2012
Spit on that shit.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Or a Carp trade.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Aren't they competing for a job now?
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
I think they'll try to stretch Montero as far as he can go at the catcher position.
ThundaPC - January 13, 2012
Okay, so what do we do with the fish?
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
Send them to Ivar's as usual I assume.
We didn’t trade vendors.
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
And so the debate becomes Felix vs Pineda...
Yeah, he’s that good.
Yankees! Why did it have to be YANKEES!
Portablestanzas - January 13, 2012
I'm picturing him in pinstripes and it's really, really bumming me out.
FUCK.
sanford_and_son - January 13, 2012
Guess again.
Guy calling in on the radio just say Jack Z is stupid for not getting Montero for Lee so we could have Pineda AND Montero
JAH - January 13, 2012 via mobile
In that future, someone would be saying today that we could have Montero AND Smoak
Agent_J - January 13, 2012
That about covers it
The big question is where the M’s see Montero playing. Is he at 1B with a trade for Smoak imminent? Seems unlikely. Will he and Smoak share 1B/DH? More likely. Does Carp get dealt or moved to a left field platoon with Wells? I would guess the latter.
One factor that gives me some comfort with the deal is that pitchers are more volatile than position players and more likely to break down. Montero is more likely to remain healthy than either of the players the M’s dealt away. The M’s risk in the deal is mainly around whether Montero can truly hit, and if he can play a position. With his glowing scouting reports at the plate, I think even if he’s a 1B/DH I like the deal. The M’s haven’t exactly set records developing players at those positions recently.
short - January 13, 2012
I have a hard time seeing Carp as anything more than an emergency outfielder
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Carp gets packaged with League and goes away
THAT’S JACK’S 3-WAY TRADE
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Somewhere, Mike Carp is crying.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
I think Olivo is the odd man out
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Carp will play left field.
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
Fuck no :(
Poochie - January 13, 2012
I think the plan this year is to punt defense for hitting
Corco - January 13, 2012
And we'll end up with neither.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
I'm to the point that I'm ok with punting some defense for offense.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Yeah. If we're going to continue to lose I'm ready to lose in a new way.
Mothy - January 13, 2012
Mike Carp's d would fly with Lance Berkman's bat, but he's no Lance Berkman in the OF
Poochie - January 13, 2012
I really hope he goes away now
I haven’t been this sick of hearing about an overrated player since Willie Bloomquist
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Yeah except he might actually be good whereas Bloomquist wasn't going to be.
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
Not getting into that again, here.
Suffice it to say that I disagree.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Why cant we still add Prince Fielder?
Since this deal involves club controlled players why does this eliminate the Mariners from pursuing Prince as well.
C Montero
1B Fielder
2B Ackley
SS Ryan
3B ???
LF Carp/Wells
CF Guti
RF Ichiro
DH Smoak
Ike Fontaine - January 13, 2012
If this is a joke it is funny
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Montero is probably not a catcher
Corco - January 13, 2012
The chances of Montero playing catcher are basically zero.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
That's an overstatement
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
I'm prepared to let Roger Hansen take a crack at him before I make that call if I'm the M's
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Ooo, I forgot we have the greatest catching coach in the history of baseball
Corco - January 13, 2012
He's a special assistant to Jack now, but yeah
I still think it’s relatively unlikely Montero can stick at catcher, but there is nothing to be lost by trying. Particularly since 2012 is going to be a rough year for the Mariners anyway.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Maybe Hansen has seen something he can work with there
And that’s why we’ve pursued him so much.
Smegmalicious - January 13, 2012
I think Wedge could help him out there too.
I think Olivo is just fat. lazy and stubborn. One of Z’s worst signings. I’m not giving up on Montero becoming the next Mike Piazza.
jameslcrockett - January 14, 2012
Olivo was worth about what we paid him if you believe Fangraphs.
Pretty good worst signing.
Mariner John - January 14, 2012
You're probably right...
though even FanGraphs will state they can’t quantify a catcher’s defensive value with certainty. I’d be happy with never watching him behind the plate ever again. I’m a big fan of Jack Z, and the fact that is one of his worst signings is why.
BB-ref has him .2 WAR for last year, which would be really bad. Like always, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
jameslcrockett - January 14, 2012
I'm fine with the Olivo signing considering the rest of our options were worse and less reliable.
ThundaPC - January 14, 2012
Pretty sure Figgins is Z's worst signing.
stredarts - January 14, 2012
I said "One of"
I’m not a big fan of the thought process that led to signing Olivo. It’s not the same with Figgins, as poorly as it’s worked out.
jameslcrockett - January 14, 2012
He certainly did wonders with Adam Moore, Rob Johnson, Miguel Olivo, ...
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Can't fix talentless unless you are Dave Duncan
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Good thing people rave about Montero's defensive talent then!
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Doesn't apply to non-pitchers
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Well, Johnson is an amazing catcher -- for an outfielder
The Ancient Mariner - January 13, 2012
I'd argue that he only had anything to work with in one of those cases at best
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
eeeeeew
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
Because Montero supposedly can't catch
jyellow865 - January 13, 2012
Good for both sides.
I don’t see that Seattle had much option here. Pineda was the logical starter to trade and Montero’s Offensive potential is very high. The Mariners are desperate for power bats and waiting until Pineda suffers an injury would be self defeating. If… (big if) Montero can serve as a useful catcher as well as fill in at 1b & DH… and with Seattle’s good young minor league starting pitching just a few seasons away… this should be a good deal for Seattle.
algionfriddo - January 13, 2012
When you make moves cause you are desperate for something... that isn't a good way to do
business
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
Being desperate does not guarantee that you make bad decisions.
quacker27 - January 13, 2012
The Mariners could have kept Pineda and watched him dominate hitters then slowly walk off the mound like the bad motherfucker he is
lemonverbena - January 13, 2012
Daily dish:
The Yankees attempted to get Felix Hernandez, but the Mariners wouldn’t budge even though the Yankees were offering the farm, according to Heyman, who says New York offered their three top prospects for King Felix.
FELIX IS OURS AND YOU CAN’T FUCKING HAVE HIM BITCHES.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
WOW, three top Prospects?
As always, it had to start with Cano
Agent_J - January 13, 2012
Their three top prospects suck.
By comparison to other team’s three top prospects.
Depends on who they mean, tho. Probably Montero, Banuelos, and Bettances, who are all flawed in some rather significant way. If Gary Sanchez was involved, it looks less stupid, but I still wouldn’t do it.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
They're better than the Astros' top prospects!
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
Ya got me.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Cosart and Singleton are pretty good.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
If this is true, Z and co are literally terrible and I want them fired.
lailaihei - January 17, 2012
If this is true, you are literally terrible
Matthew - January 17, 2012
Felix: Owed $57 million over 3 years, projects to be worth maybe 15 wins over those 3 years.
Pineda: Will make something like $15-30 million over his 5 years of team control (depending on performance), worth between something like 15-20 wins over 5 years.
Pineda is obviously the more valuable asset; why would the Mariners turn down a much, much better package for a less valuable asset (Felix) and then trade away Pineda and a top Mariner prospect?
lailaihei - January 17, 2012
You are literally terrible
Matthew - January 17, 2012
And here's why:
You’ve badly misapplied the values and cost of Pineda. First you lock in that he’s going to 3.5 WAR per year, each year, for the next five. That’s, whatever, you want to go with that. But if you do, $15-$30 million (depending on performance? but you just outlined his performance! Inconsistent logic there) is terribly short changing him.
He’s going to be a Super-2 so he’s due 2 full market seasons worth of pay over his arbitration years (.2+.4+.6+.8) plus one club-controlled year of about $500K. Those arb years are spread out over a 4-year period of 2013-6 and the $/WAR is increasing, so probably ends up with a weighted average of around $5.5M per WAR. Since you’re assuming 3.5 WAR of performance that means Pineda’s cost comes to around $40 million through arbitration, (significantly) more if he’s better at the tail end, near free agency.
The above totally ignores his likely higher bust risk compared to Felix.
Finally, the package of the Yankees 3 biggest prospects has been, and long known, to be Montero, Betances and Banuelos. Betances and Banuelos are underwhelming and less interesting than Noesi is on his own. Montero + Noesi is the better package.
Matthew - January 17, 2012
The bust rate for Felix is much worse, I think.
If Pineda turns out to be broken/injured/mediocre, he won’t cost the Yankees anything (worst case scenario, they don’t tender him a contract). If Felix gets injured or starts declining, they still have to pay his entire salary.
Let’s compare this way. If you add up the costs of his arbitration years, it’s paying for 2 years and getting “free” 3 years. Is there more equity in 3 free years of Pineda, or the 3 years of Felix in his current contract?
lailaihei - January 18, 2012
I'm not playing a moving goalposts game.
Your argument was off base, I detailed why. I’m not going to chase around slightly different framings of the exact same thing. There are no free years. That’s ridiculous. You’re shifting costs around for who knows what reason and you’re doing it poorly by asking a question that tosses out the costs entirely. You might as well imply that Felix has two free years and one really expensive year.
Matthew - January 18, 2012
What I'm trying to say is, Felix is basically getting market value, and thus has little equity if any.
Pineda is getting league minimum for 1 year, then .2x value, .4x value, .6x value, .8x value for the next 4 years. That means that 100% of his year 1 performance is equity, 80% of his year 2 performance, etc.
If he’s broken/sucks, of course the amount of that equity goes down. But even if he’s a 2-win player for the next 5 years, he’ll get paid as if he was worth ~4 wins when he’s actually worth 10. 6 wins of equity, which I don’t think you can find in Felix’s current deal.
To the other part of the deal, maybe Noesi is better than Betances and Banuelos. But is Noesi better than Betances, Banuelos, and Campos?
lailaihei - January 18, 2012
I am so fucking glad you don't run this team
Aaron Campeau - January 18, 2012
If you replace "Felix" with "generic pitcher as good as Felix with the same contract"
I doubt people would be so hostile to the idea of trading him. Pineda, right now, with his contract has more equity than Felix, right now, with his contract.
Using current $/win of 4.5m, increasing $.5m/yr.
Assuming payscale for Pineda is $500k, .2x value, .4x value, .6x value, .8x value.
Projecting Felix’s WAR over the next 3 years to be (a generous) 6, 5.5, 5
Projecting Pineda’s WAR over the next 5 years to be 3.5, 3.5, 3, 3, 2.5
I get $24m equity in Felix’s contract and $49.6m equity in Pineda’s deal.
lailaihei - January 18, 2012
It's not the label attached to Felix, it's that your presenting your case poorly
and started off terribly with a extremely hyperbolic statement about Z being terrible.
Arbitration rewards generally increase even if a pitcher was injured or ineffective and Pineda is a bigger risk than Felix to be one or both of those over the next 5 seasons. If Pineda flames out, how much equity does he have? I don’t get the sense that you are properly weighting that possibility with your WAR values.
I think clearly yes. Noesi can contribute right now, he’s a good bet to return some value. Perhaps even some significant value over cost-controlled years. None of the other three are. Even combined it’s still long odds.
Pineda may be the more valuable asset right now, but it’s a lot closer than you’re presenting it and nowhere near warrants your original statement.
Matthew - January 18, 2012
I agree I was a bit hyperbolic.
But I disagree that Pineda is a bigger risk. Due to the year-to-year nature of arbitration, it’s almost impossible for Pineda to turn into a negative asset, whereas it’s certainly possible with Felix. Even if Pineda only puts up average (2 WAR) seasons over the next 3 years, then requires Tommy John surgery and isn’t tendered a contract for the last 2 years of team control, he’s still a net asset by a long, long ways.
lailaihei - January 18, 2012
Have you no heart?
Poochie - January 18, 2012
Congrats from an Angels fan, this looks like a good deal for you guys although it would have been nice to keep Campos I'm sure.
miketrout - January 13, 2012
Thank you!
That was very cordial.
Smegmalicious - January 13, 2012
But was it sincere?
morrow - January 13, 2012
Well both sides seem to be angry.
Luisam - January 13, 2012
Yankees fans love Montero.
I’ve been arguing with one since this started, none of them care that he is a DH on a team that has got DH locked up for the next decade already.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
Didn't they love Juan Miranda too?
morrow - January 13, 2012
No…
Andrew GM - January 13, 2012
You're probably thinking of Juan Rivera.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
If the Campos/Noesi part is accurate, I like this significantly less
JLC - January 13, 2012
Campos>Noesi
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Yes
Hence why I would like the trade less
JLC - January 13, 2012
Oh. I don't know what I meant when I said that. Maybe I misread your comment. I don't know, sorry though
MilesC - January 13, 2012
[[Insert unfunny Jesus savior joke here]]
It’s pronounced Hey-Zeus, jackass.
SeaKoala - January 13, 2012
Bastard can't hit a curve ball for shit.
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
I'd rather have Pineda and Fielder
ManifestDestiny - January 13, 2012
See this as Montero minus Pineda
plus some nice FA’s next offseason at 3B, LF, C, SP, etc.. Not signing Fielder will let the M’s fill some other needs and retain good young players in the future.
short - January 13, 2012
Yes, because the M's still need to do something about
catcher and third base. So they can’t go blow a boat load of money on another guy that can’t play defense.
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
Good luck with that...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html
Portablestanzas - January 13, 2012
At least something exciting finally fucking happened.
Goose - January 13, 2012
Jack Zduriencik strikes again!!!
Aaroniero Arruruerie - January 13, 2012
Think how much sooner this could get him fired!
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Wow, really?
Lets see if Pineda survives Yankee Stadium before we talk firings
Agent_J - January 13, 2012
Poor Pineda
He has to pitch in that little league stadium for the rest of his career.
EthanN - January 13, 2012
Now I know how every hitter feels coming to Safeco
Agent_J - January 13, 2012
Oh it's not that bad
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
Quit ruining my fun
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck
I’ll probably more calm once it sets in, but fuck. Pineda was so adorable
MilesC - January 13, 2012
No No No No
No No No…. Not for Montero. Please. This can’t be everything. Pineda was too good.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
There's gotta be another prospect floating around in this deal, right?
I hope so.
sanford_and_son - January 13, 2012
Now you can remember Pineda for the year he was awesome...
and not have to endure what would happen if his arm broke off at the elbow in a year or two.
PissedMick - January 13, 2012
I bet Pineda is more excited than Montero right now
Corco - January 13, 2012
I think you are correct.
sanford_and_son - January 13, 2012
Safeco!!
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Say goodbye to that little league park you were playing in with warm winds, Montero!
Welcome to PNW!
sanford_and_son - January 13, 2012
Just because I think Pineda is always excited.
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
I think Pineda's agent is more excited.
quacker27 - January 13, 2012
What are the odds on Jack Z holding a press conference and then ripping off a mask to reveal Bill Bavasi with a smug smile on his face
cdlewey - January 13, 2012
It's nowhere near Bavasi bad
Matthew - January 13, 2012
But it's bad right? Your opinion is important...
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Maybe it just seems that bad to me because I hate Montero and love Pineda
cdlewey - January 13, 2012
I'm in the same boat
Montero is a stupid Yankee and Pineda is a giraffe. Giraffes are awesome and I never want to see them pitch for the Yankees
Corco - January 13, 2012
Jay Buhner was a stupid Yankee, too. Seattle can change people.
seattle_since_81 - January 13, 2012
As soon as Montero is officially a Mariner I'll be as big a Montero fan as you can find, but that doesn't make it any easier at first
Corco - January 13, 2012
I can deal with that...
…better than I can deal with Pineda being a Yankee. Makes wanting him to do well conflicting, like Ranger Beltre.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
What if Beltre had signed with the Yankees instead of Boston?
Would you still have loved him?
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
I don't know.
Check back later in the year and see how I feel about Pineda then.
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
Hopefully, Jeffrey will post a poll of some kind.
jameslcrockett - January 15, 2012
Bavasi would have traded
Pineda for Doug Davis, Marlon Byrd, Rodrigo Lopez and Brian LaHair…
marinerschas2 - January 13, 2012
Brian LaHair would still be on the Mariners as the starting first basemen
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Fine,
A PTBNL then.
marinerschas2 - January 13, 2012
Exactly.
No one seems to understand that these trades are all about quantity. Whoever gets the most players in return wins; that’s like basic math.
Liebkartoffel - January 13, 2012
1 in 550 quadrillion
Corco - January 13, 2012
So it's possible?
morrow - January 13, 2012
If you would have told me we were trading Pineda for Montero two hours ago I would have strongly doubted it
Never say never
Corco - January 13, 2012
I might have even ridiculed them for such far out trade proposals
but here we are…
bomdal - January 13, 2012
Yankee prospects are always over-hyped because of the market they are in.
That’s why everyone loses trades to them with the “little things.”
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Throw ins count
It’s the Noesi part of this that irritates me. Why toss in Campos as a freebie ?
jjmalden - January 13, 2012
How do you know that was how it happened?
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
I can only imagine the comments on the Facebook page after this gets posted.
kennerdoloman - January 13, 2012
Oh god. Never read the any MLB facebook page ever
MilesC - January 13, 2012
I know.
I try not to, but it keeps drawing me back.
kennerdoloman - January 13, 2012
Its like meth
MilesC - January 13, 2012
The Mariners are really good about hiding trades and stuff till the last minute.
SeaKoala - January 13, 2012
Come to think of it
Jayson Stark
The deal features all young cost-controlled players. I think the fear amongst the respective fanbases is coming up monumentally short on swapping long term options.
ThundaPC - January 13, 2012
I don't like this trade unless Montero can catch. Given the reports, I am starting to hate this more and more. Still, I guess he couldn't be much worst than Olivo.
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
The funny part is that Olivo isn't even that bad
If Montero can rake and put up Olivo defense behind the plate, I’d be fucking ecstatic.
JLC - January 13, 2012
... if "isn't even that bad" is "statistically and visually abysmal."
thehemogoblin - January 13, 2012
Olivo doesn't rate that poorly at "framing" (refering to the research done by Mike Fast)
and even though he’s terrible a blocking pitches, he’s had several above average CS% season for his career, and is generally rated to have a plus arm. Most statistical analysis (a lot of which is in its infant stages) points to Miguel Olivo being slightly below average behind the plate.
But by all means, you are welcome to point me towards evidence that Olivo has well-below average defense or even one of the worst defensive catchers in the game.
JLC - January 13, 2012
If Montero is equal to Olivo defensively, he should catch
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
I'd take a Rob Johnson equivalent, so long as he can hit
At least, as long as the Mariner’s offense is in its current state.
TIFO - January 13, 2012
Define "that bad"
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Dead cow?
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Average to slightly below average
JLC - January 13, 2012
This is pretty suprising from both sides.
Sorry for you guys (A’s fan), Pineda is a stud.
I think Montero may/ still could be better than perceived here.
I’m honestly pretty shocked the Bankee’s traded him, the fact that they did makes me question my previous statement a bit.
brian.only - January 13, 2012
It was a ruse. He's always been a ruse.
That’s why we didn’t trade Cliff for him in the first place… We are getting boned.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Anybody see Churchill's tweet?
Nova possibly in the deal.
voltron27 - January 13, 2012
/Churchill
Corco - January 13, 2012
...is an ass, but he is a connected ass
Poochie - January 13, 2012
I haven't paid Churchill enough to see his tweets
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
His tweets are free
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Hmm, Churchill says Nova may be involved
Lets hope for that
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
That would be sexy
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Nova isn't good
so I wouldn’t call it sexy, but it would probably make me like the trade
Matthew - January 13, 2012
I was going off his physical appearance
Its something about those large Dominican men
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Hmm.
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
Think of the puns!
Super Nova, meltdown, sunspot, etc etc
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
OH NOESI!
Trust me, it could be worse. Much, much worse.
ThomasG - January 13, 2012
Is this an invitation?
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Trust me, no.
thehemogoblin - January 13, 2012
You're right: I would rather not be eaten by a Matthew
Seriously though I think Nova wouldn’t be the worst case of a throw in
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
I also can't wait for the "Jesus" puns that are inevitable with Montero
Smoak, Jesus, Nova, Carp… this team is going to be a beat-writers dream
TIFO - January 13, 2012
Holy Smoak! Jesus hit that one!
Andrew GM - January 13, 2012
Agreed
Poochie - January 13, 2012
I'd get behind it- he at least fills Pineda's hole
Corco - January 13, 2012
but I don't know why the Yankees, in their desperation for starters, would give up a starter
Corco - January 13, 2012
Because they signed Kuroda perhaps
Matthew - January 13, 2012
That would do it
Corco - January 13, 2012
That would be sexy
thehemogoblin - January 13, 2012
Phrasing.
Jackington - January 13, 2012
January 19th! Only a few days away.
nathaniel dawson - January 15, 2012
The internet has ruined me
“I’d get behind it… he at least fills Pineda’s hole”… I can’t be the only one?
TIFO - January 13, 2012
What the fuck are we going to do with all these #3 starters we're gonna have.
Marinerfanjake - January 13, 2012
Trade them for DHs!
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Dingers!
Jackington - January 13, 2012
If Nova is part of the deal
We had to have given up more than Pineda/Campos.
voltron27 - January 13, 2012
That's what I am thinking.
Luisam - January 13, 2012
Why? Pineda is the only person in this deal that's a little proven.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Are you kidding me. The trade still wouldn't be in our favor.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
It would be close enough to make me like it
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
The Mariners can't make this deal unless it's decidedly in their favor.
There would be no point.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Nova is a 3rd/ 4th starter, I don't think so
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Yankees just signed Kuroda.
scout6 - January 13, 2012
SIGN PRINCE!
w00tah - January 13, 2012
HOW DID THEY DO TWO THINGS AT ONCE
Corco - January 13, 2012
Oh Fry, I love the way you
NOTICE TWO THINGS
HititHere - January 13, 2012
Oswalt.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
Good day's work for Cashman
Queue up Gary Sanchez as new Jesus.
jjmalden - January 13, 2012
Welp, so much for that idea!
Goose - January 13, 2012
Moyer!
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
Guess they had to clear some cap room or something...
thehemogoblin - January 13, 2012
Wow, new look in the Bronx.
brian.only - January 13, 2012
At least Roy Oswalt is still out there!
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
I like how I typically dedicate 30 minutes to an hour every day towards reading about baseball rumors
And then a flood of shit happens on one day in the span of 10 minutes.
JLC - January 13, 2012
Poor Felix lost his Jedi Padawan
JAH - January 13, 2012 via mobile
FUCK IT, LET'S GO AFTER OSWALT NOW
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
Rumor is we're still in on Prince!
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Fuck
MilesC - January 13, 2012
More fatties!
BBWs!
w00tah - January 13, 2012
Our offense is going to be so awesome
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
That's a horrible rumor.
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
Pineda comes with questions, with his late-season collapse and his fly ball rates
I think he might struggle with the home runs in NY, which sucks because he was my favorite. Jesus Montero is exciting though and I can stop paying attention to Prince Fielder rumors, which is awesome.
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Pretty sure Jeff or Mathew brought some stats to the table showing he really didn't collapse
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
I meant include "command collapse". It seemed like he was walking a lot more hitters.
I don’t know where to find evidence to support this though
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Nope
Splits
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Seems like that would be an easy thing to check.
PissedMick - January 13, 2012
I decided to start googling all the prospect descriptions over the last few years on Montero.
Even though I had already read it all before, reading it again fresh definitely reassures me, people have said some amazing things about his bat.
neel - January 13, 2012
Russ Davis thinks he's a shitty fielder though
Portablestanzas - January 13, 2012
Yankees > Mariners
Fuck!
OceanBird - January 13, 2012
From @YankeesWFAN
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
That's... quite a compromise
Corco - January 13, 2012
We're the ones with the commodity and we're backing off our demands.
Puzzling.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
It's okay to be a little down on Montero if you have to be
But we certainly didn’t have the only “commodity” in this trade. C’mon now.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I think in general cost controlled, high caliber, young SP is the commodity. Especially
when dealing with a team like NY, who are really only missing top end SP (let alone young top end starters)
I think we held the power here. Sucks that we settled in my opinion.
I think we are just too desperate for power hitting for 2012.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
I think both teams traded from a position of relative strength
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Yes I agree, but I think when you have a young top end starting pitcher
you inevitably hold the power. To move a starter like this I think you need to be blown away by the player in return.
I don’t seen how Montero with his lack of positional value can be that player. Then we tossed in another Top 100 prospect.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
Pitchers are a hell of a lot riskier than hitters
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
Especially since Pineda has an injury history.
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
"Pineda has an injury history"
How many times have I heard this? He had ONE injury, which was not significant and kept him out for 3 months, which was likely longer than he really needed because the Mariners were being careful with him, and hasn’t shown any lingering effects or a hint of any other problems since then. How many pitchers can you find that have never had any kind of something or other? This guy’s just about as projectable and as reliable as you could find for a pitcher his age. Or any age. The notion that Pineda, for a pitcher, has any kind of increased injury risk seems absurd.
Sorry, I’ve just heard this over an over again, and I don’t know why people have this opinion of him. He looks to me like he’s going to be a “horse”.
nathaniel dawson - January 13, 2012
I have no objection to dealing one of the young arms. Just don't like
the player we got back in return. Pineda and Campos should have brought back a young hitter with positional value in my opinion. If a guy like that wasn’t available, I don’t think you had to rush into a trade this offseason. But I think our GM is desperate right now.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
This is not a desperation move.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I think a case can be made that it kind of is.
Which does not make it inherently bad.
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
How would you know, one way or the other?
Matthew - January 13, 2012
I don't, just an opinon.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I think you're way too down on Montero.
If he cannot make it at catcher, they’ll convert him to first base. He isn’t some abysmal athlete just because he can’t stick at catcher; lots of guys can’t.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
And then that reduces Smoak's value
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
So?
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Only relative to us
d0nkey - January 13, 2012
If it reduces his value to us, it reduces his value to other teams
unless everyone wants Smoak.
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
Aren't we kind of set at 1B?
One way or another, or another?
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
Maybe the teams scouts think he can still play catcher?
This is the kind of deal that can’t be judged immediately. Let’s wait a few seasons and see how a guy with only one season in the majors and another with only a handful of at bats turn out before calling a winner.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
If they felt that, they would have trade Lee for him a yr and half ago.
Right? Wouldn’t he have held much more value as a power hitting catcher than Smoak?
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
They may have liked Smoak more because of the LH power
It’s also possible that Montero has shown better development behind the dish since the Cliff Lee trade.
JLC - January 13, 2012
They have a year and half more info
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
Just going off buzz. I think two yrs ago there was more hope
he’d play catcher. I don’t think anybody right now thinks he can catch.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
I do think they must be high on Noesi and view him as ready to compete for a spot in the spring
Otherwise this doesn’t make sense
Corco - January 13, 2012
Jack Z see his ass on the hot seat? Maybe
kentroyals5 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
He was just given an extension.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Before an off-season that started seeing a fan-base turn hostile.
I like Z, but I do get the sense that he’s running out of time.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Geoff Baker, is that you?
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
I didn't mean it in any way demeaning...
I’m on Z’s side. I think he’s done an excellent job. I’m even coming around to this trade. I like it. I’m just kind of worried that fan base displeasure is going to start rearing its ugly head. Geoff Baker is a HUGE reason why this is happening. And that is just another reason to not like him. Sorry if you didn’t catch my meaning.
John Woody - January 15, 2012
He's not on the hotseat.
If the guys he’s brought in fizzle next year then I’d say his job will be in danger.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Doesn't that mean he's on the hot seat?
nathaniel dawson - January 13, 2012
That doesn't mean a whole lot. He could still be fired, GM's (managers too) get fired all the time under their current deals.
If a team isn’t totally dissatisfied with their current GM, they’ll sign him to an extension to give things a longer look, but that’s no guarantee they’ll keep him around for the whole contract if he doesn’t bring the results they want.
nathaniel dawson - January 13, 2012
The response to that would be overpaying for Michael Cuddyer or Josh Willingham
ThundaPC - January 13, 2012
Huh
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
This is the part where my distrust of all things Yankees media kicks in.
drblacknwhite - January 13, 2012
We should be thankful the Yankees still let us play baseball in their world
lemonverbena - January 13, 2012
Some trending topics:
SeaKoala - January 13, 2012
I should really pick better days to sleep in late
Because right now I am incredibly irrationally angry waking up to this news.
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 13, 2012 via mobile
It is 5:35 and you just woke up?
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
Swing shift, maybe?
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
Vampire Slayer*
Portablestanzas - January 13, 2012
I have insomnia
So my sleep schedule gets fucked up alot. Normally I would just wake up earlier but I was really tired today.
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I bet the insomnia goes away during the Mariners season.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Chone Figgins at bats are the best power naps.
JAH - January 13, 2012
Me too! Just woke 10 minutes ago.
Holy shit Jack Z
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
It's better than having to go to bed confused and bewildered.
Now my mind is racing.
bomdal - January 13, 2012
It's 5:36 and you're going to bed?
nathaniel dawson - January 13, 2012
It's 3:30am
in my part of the world. Also, your clock’s fast.
Liebkartoffel - January 13, 2012
Aww, crap, did I forget to fall back?
I thought traffic was awfully light when I’ve been going to work.
nathaniel dawson - January 13, 2012
I live in Europe currently, so it was actually 236
Don’t let the PST fool you
bomdal - January 13, 2012
I know people don't like losing Campos.
Does he really project better than Walker, Paxton or Hultzen?
voltron27 - January 13, 2012
No.
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
Did anyone say that he did?
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Didn't Pineda have similar prospect ranking and write ups at his age?
w00tah - January 13, 2012
No he doesn't but it isn't a stretch to think he'll be a Top 50 to Top 75 prospect if he has another good
season.
I just don’t get why he’s in this trade.
How can Montero be viewed as being worth Pineda and Campos?
Not to the mention the Yankees are desperate for top end starting pitching and have no place to bat Montero.
Seems like we should have been the ones playing hardball.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
I was thinking this too.
Don’t quite understand why the M’s had to include additional consideration. If anything, the Yankees should have.
mkries - January 13, 2012
No.
That we still have those three is fine, but it has no little relevance to this trade.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Hultzen & Paxton are more finished products
Campos has no ceiling at this point, like Walker. Noesi likely won’t get much better except for getting to pitch at Safeco.
jjmalden - January 13, 2012
Still not relevant.
If any of those three were originally involved in the deal and the Mariners protected all but Campos, maybe it would be relevant. It just isn’t.
To say that we still have “x, y, or z” is missing the point. Getting rid of Pineda and Campos for what doesn’t appear to be equal value is what our problem is. Our depth beyond is not relevant, no matter how heartening it is for us to make a sacrifice or two.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
"how heartening it is for us to BE ABLE to make a sacrifice or two".
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
If they want Montero to catch, then
what about Jaso? Just depth I guess.
ATM's34 - January 13, 2012
I'm hoping they'll find some way to dump Olivo.
Not very likely, though. =(
kennerdoloman - January 13, 2012
I'd like to get rid of Olivo, but that depends on Adam Moore's health.
voltron27 - January 13, 2012
Jaso, lefty, Montero, righty. Tandem. Seems to make sense to me.
If Montero is really a catcher.
nathaniel dawson - January 13, 2012
Sure...
but Montero better play a hell of a lot more than John Jaso. You don’t give up Pineda for a possible platoon player.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Well I assume Montero could DH the rest of the time, right?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Then where would we put Carp? Left Field?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
WHO CARES
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
On the bench, oiling Montero's bats or something.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
I would assume it wouldn't be a strict platoon.
Catchers usually take 30-40 games off a year, Jaso plays those games in a back-up role hitting mostly against righties, while Montero sees about a 50/50 split against righties and lefties. If Montero is going to be used as our starting catcher, then it’s Olivo that looks like the odd man out.
nathaniel dawson - January 14, 2012
Montero better be getting 500 ABs
I doubt the FO gave up Pineda for a platooner.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
Per Morosi
voltron27 - January 13, 2012
BTW, this makes Grant Brisbee a damned genius.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/13/2705295/new-york-yankees-starting-pitcher-free-agent-rumors
Not one but TWO. Take that!
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
We'll also have a top pick this year to replenish the depth we just lost at least.
Luisam - January 13, 2012
Yes, let's spend another first round pick on a pitcher!
You can never have enough pitchers!
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
You never draft for need.
Unless your comment was sarcasm.
kennerdoloman - January 13, 2012
I understand that.
But if there’s a good hitting prospect at the top of the draft boards come June (and I have no idea if there is) I would just rather not spend another first round pick on a SP.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Best Person Available. Period.
If it’s a pitcher, so be it. Just creates more depth.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
I, for one, would sacrifice a tiny bit of pure upside
if they could still get a solid Ackley-type hitter with that pick.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
This is based on the assumption that two players would be near equal in potential value.
That may not even happen.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
That's why I said if there's a good hitter.
If there’s not then by all means take a pitcher.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Well, trying to figure out "tiny bits" of difference is near impossible.
If you have two relatively equal draft choices, it doesn’t actually matter which you pick, does it?
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
I'd rather the guy who they think is the best player.
Way too much variance involved in prospects to ever draft for need.
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
And way too much variance in talent evaluation
To be reasonably sure that player A is better than player B in the long run.
twelveoutof10 - January 13, 2012
Remember,
the only available hitters that made remotely any sense at pick 2 were Rendon, Starling and Lindor. Considering the high cost and unknown health status of Rendon and the fact that 2011 was potentially a historically-good crop of pitchers, I don’t think Hultzen was terrible. Safe, perhaps, but not bad.
mkries - January 13, 2012
The Yankees have a really good rotation now.
lailaihei - January 13, 2012
We just gave them what they were desperate to have.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
And then they signed another really good pitcher.
lailaihei - January 13, 2012
Boy, do we do look dumb.
sanford_and_son - January 13, 2012
IMO Mariners rotation was better with Pineda than Yankees with Pineda.
Tough call now that we don’t have him. But my feeling is that their staff with our lineup would perform similarly or worse than we did last year.
Agent_J - January 13, 2012
True...
but now they have Kuroda too.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
I'd take Oswalt on a 1 year 8 million deal.
And I wouldn’t think twice about it. We’d also be relatively close to where we were before.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Very much yes...
even just for flippable possibilities.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Noesi doesn't really appear to me to be worse than Nova on quick glance
At least based on the unreliable, not worth much minor league numbers. Strikes out more guys while walking less. They are also 14 days apart in age
Have no idea on scouting differences and he is a older
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
whoops, he is older in level comparisons
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
I'm not a big fan of Nova.
Probably less so than Noesi, actually. Nova is vastly over hyped by the casual fans based on his win / loss record a year ago and sparkly ERA. He’s certainly not that good, at least at this point.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Well, the good news is that we just increased the number of players in the Ms organization named NoesÃ
lailaihei - January 13, 2012
We spend 2 months waiting and talking about Prince Fielder,
then BAM Jesus Montero comes up out of nowhere. Baseball offseason.
ATM's34 - January 13, 2012
Newborn King > Prince
thehemogoblin - January 13, 2012
The baseball offseason is like Christmas,
only if Christmas came on an unannounced day between November and February and people gave a good deal of terrible gifts.
mkries - January 13, 2012
Santa Boras
Except he charges you for your gifts and if you don’t want to pay he threatens to take your gifts to the mystery kid two towns over. You can keep the catalog though.
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Scott Boras is a big box retailer that convinces people to line up for his products starting at midnight on Thanksgiving,
but instead of giving discounts, he displays one of each item and marks it up by 33%.
mkries - January 13, 2012
How could this have happened?? According to the always authorative NYC sports media ...
… the Mariners made a mockery of baseball by pulling out of the Montero for Cliff Lee. And Cashman and the Yankees would suitably punish the Mariners by never giving them the opportunity to trade with the Yankees.
Of course there were other voices that said that as soon as there was a deal between the teams that made sense the two teams would be back at the table together, as always.
Steve Nelson - January 13, 2012
,
Buster Olney: One rival exec asks:“If Mariners liked Montero so much, how come they didn’t just trade Cliff Lee for him?… Pineda is worth more.”
msb - January 13, 2012
We obviously really liked Justin Smoak. Hopefully, he has a bust out year for us.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
Agreed. It was all about Smoak for us.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
We don't even know the details of that 'trade proposal' do we?
I may have missed it if we do
d0nkey - January 13, 2012
I figure its because a firstbaseman is beter than a DH
Obviously he hasn’t hit as much as planned though
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Agree that Pineda is worth more,
but that’s a really stupid counterfactual from the rival exec.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
I find it absolutely stunning that a baseball executive would give a negative sound bite about a move made by another club
What happened to the honor and integrity of this business?
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
Maybe it was Dave Samson?
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Personally, I think that exec is wrong.
The situation with Cliff Lee is not the situation now. That was one of those interesting times where Jack Z was probably in the best situation possible. I think he made the right decision then.
Montero is a legit top prospect bat. Pineda is a legit top prospect pitcher. I don’t think they’re that far apart in perceived value. We look at the Latos trade and drool, but that trade doesn’t mean that Pineda was worth as much or more. But, what do I know.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
If the Yankees liked Pineda so much,
why didn’t they try trade Montero (who they didn’t have a spot for) for Pineda when they needed pitching down the stretch?
mkries - January 13, 2012
First the Fister trade, now this.
Losing a bit of faith in Z’s trading ability.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Why are people acting like this is some sort of disaster?
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Because it's not Fielder.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Not quite that melodramatic.
I don’t love the trade at all though.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Even if you are ridiculously down on Montero, and ridiculously up on Pineda
It still comes in as a slight overpay.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Uh, no.
Now you’re the only being unreasonable.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Let's not pretend there aren't still questions about Pineda's ability to have sustained success
And while I’m not thrilled about Montero’s minor league track record, I’m not completely discarding his performance in his September callup either.
I think you and Dave are way too bearish on Montero.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Completely unreasonable actually.
If I look at Montero and see a DH-only who posted an .843 OPS in AAA and I look at Pineda and see a guy who dominated the majors with only two pitches. Calling the swap of those two a “slight overpay” is ridiculously underselling it.
I think you’re letting your view that people are underrating Montero (fair or not) knee jerk you into making equally wild statements on the other side.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
You're assuming he'll be able to continue to dominate the majors with only two pitches
As well as do it in a significantly less pitcher-friendly park, and avoid injuries to boot.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
"ridiculously up on Pineda"
Your words, not mine.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
I just think people are ignoring that Pineda still has significant questions long-term
And moving him to a harder division and a hitters’ park is going to affect him more than they think.
I liked him plenty while he was here, but it’s not impossible we sold as high as it’s possible to have sold on him.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
How easy is it to get a reasonably decent DH in any market, any year.
Now, how hard is it to get a reasonably decent starting pitcher in any market, any year.
I guess we’ll see how this works out, but Montero betting hit the cover off the damn ball.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
better*
John Woody - January 13, 2012
I don't know why people say this. If it was so easy, wouldn't the Mariners have done it for the last 8 years?
HARRYP09 - January 13, 2012
Because we use the DH slot to give young guys some ABs while were terrible.
With the exception of Griffey of course.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Everett, Vidro, Wilkerson, Matt Lawton, Cust, Bradley
Yep, that’s how we have intended to use the DH slot
Corco - January 13, 2012
I always thought Bradley played more games as a LF. I could be wrong.
Cust was a great example of how we should’ve gotten good DH value for nothing, but our coach didn’t want to play him in a way that reminded me of Moneyball.
And, all the rest are Bavasi, and he was retarded.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Once we dropped Griffey it was a Branyan/Bradley monster that DH'd
But with the exception of the last half of last season I can’t remember us ever setting aside the DH spot for young guys on a regular basis
Corco - January 13, 2012
Branyan is another great example of how to get a decent DH on the cheap.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
He's also the only example of the Mariners being successful at it since Edgar*. We've had many chances to do it and we've not been particularly adept at it.
*Raul Ibanez was signed long term. He was as good as Branyan was (by BR WAR), but since he was signed to a 4 year deal, I wouldn’t class him as an easy pickup.
HARRYP09 - January 13, 2012
Taking as a sample size all AL teams, I'm sure the numbers get a lot better. But it seems wrong to assume that there will always be a decent DH available for a small contract when you need one, especially with other teams making offers too.
HARRYP09 - January 13, 2012
And Montero is a 21 year old hitter with monster power
This isn’t some scrub, even if he’s overrated due to the Yankee effect.
HititHere - January 13, 2012
I never said he was. I was taking issue with the assertion that you can get a decent DH any year at any time.
HARRYP09 - January 13, 2012
And Carl Everett, Jose Vidro, etc
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Two problems with this stance:
1) Organizational context matters. The Mariners have deep pitching in their farm system.
2) It’s not a given that Montero is going to be a DH. It’s likely that he’ll be unable to stick at catcher, yes, but he’s athletic enough to play a perfectly reasonable first base.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
And if he plays first base, we then have to move Smoak to DH.
We traded for a dh.
John Woody - January 13, 2012
Now who's assuming?
You. The answer is you.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
What, exactly, am I assuming?
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Not to mention that even if Montero stays at catcher but sucks at it
He could still be a valuable player at the position based on his offense.
It’s not like we’ve been running out ace defenders at the position the last couple of seasons anyway.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Volcanoes?
d0nkey - January 13, 2012
I'm sure some of it is people who don't like Z
Will always take the most pessimistic view on everything he does.
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
I like Z
But I’m still scared and confused.
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
The fact that I have faith in Z and his crew are the only reason I'm not going insane right now
If Bavasi had just done this I’d be straight up pissed
Corco - January 13, 2012
Yeah, me too.
That and I’m waiting on it to become official so we actually know.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
Let's not forget a few things.
Bavasi traded Randy Winn for Foppert / JoeJessica. Yeah, in hindsight this sucks, but it wasn’t a bad deal at the time. Garcia for Reed / Morse / Olivo was a damned great deal at the time.
I don’t think I’d have been that pissed if Bavasi did this.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
That's the two palatable trades he made
I wasn’t totally against Perez/Cabrera at the time either and I for some reason I liked Cirillo for Jarvis/Hansen/Faison/Wiki- but just about everything else..yuck
Corco - January 13, 2012
Big difference between early Bavasi trades and later Bavasi trades
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Not arguing.
Just saying that the entire body of his work wasn’t hideous. Just most of it. A trade should be judged on it’s own merits, not on the people doing it.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Yes, but the comment was about how we'd emotionally react
Matthew - January 13, 2012
It goes without saying we'd act like idiots.
I mean, we’re barely remaining calm now. It’s just who we are.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Because people naturally fear change.
mkries - January 13, 2012
This has nothing to do with change.
It has to do with value.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
People naturally fear value.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Loss of value, to clarify.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
That's why I buy all my groceries at Sharper Image.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Because of today's music thread theme, obviously.
ThomasG - January 13, 2012
Because MichealPineda is so darned cute?
msb - January 13, 2012
What's wrong with the Fister trade?
ThundaPC - January 13, 2012
Doug Fister was the greatest Mariner of all time.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
What real value did the M's get in return?
A LFer with huge holes in his swing, a pitcher who MIGHT be able to cut it as 5th starter, a middle reliever, and an underwhelming 3b prospect. Maybe it will turn out well eventually, but for now it doesn’t look good.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
For a number 3 pitcher and a David Pauley
I will take that 8 days a week
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Legit #3 pitchers are not exactly easy to come by.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Also he was pitching like a number 1 or 2 and there were reasons to believe he could sustain that.
like the fact that it was at least partially based on increased velocity.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
He pitched so good for Detroit too
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Anti-Washburn!
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
Damn you karmic balancing
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Nah. That trade (so far) hasn't worked out for either side.
No karma involved.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
M's may have gotten nothing out of it, but Washburn actually hurt them
If they got him for free, it would have been a rip off
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Ms got the 4 HR game out of it
Matthew - January 13, 2012
So you're predicting a regression from Fister
It’s the only way the universe allows this
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Which we lost!
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Last I checked, Mauricio Robles isn't dead.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Not yet. Someday though
But I was just letting Coach be right and used “may” to make the point
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Not like he's tearing it up though.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Oh he's tearing something up...
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
That basically describes the floors of all the players involved.
ThundaPC - January 13, 2012
Wouldn't say that Martinez is "underwhelming".
He’s young and raw but has pretty solid upside.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
I am extremely confused by this
bluemax - January 13, 2012
Probably the best assessment so far...
kentroyals5 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
The headline puns are going to be egregious.
Comma - January 13, 2012
I'm kind of shocked that Jack didn't consult with us.
Dustin G - January 13, 2012
He did but since we shit all over his Alfonso Soriano idea, he spited us with this.
ThomasG - January 13, 2012
Shawn Kelley thinks it's epic
He knows more than me. AHHH, epic goes both ways
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
If it's epic maybe he'll put together a paragraph of more than two sentences.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Shit, read that as Steve Kelley.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I'm thinking he is as shocked as everyone
two sentences of mono-syllables in times of stress
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
I can't immediately respond to this trade rationally because I really like Pineda
Gihyou - January 13, 2012
I think that is the general consensus.
forte40 - January 13, 2012
This, and I hate the Yankees.
Another team wouldn’t be quite as bad, either.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
Ehh, at least it's not Texas
That would have had me swearing off baseball.
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
Now we need hats for bats!
d0nkey - January 13, 2012
So the rotation is
Felix
Vargas
Iwakuma
Beavan
????
bluemax - January 13, 2012
FA/Furbush/Paxton/Hultzen
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
For the fifth spot, that is.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
Furbush that's who I was forgetting
bluemax - January 13, 2012
Neosi possibly
voltron27 - January 13, 2012
Noesi!!!
HuskyMariner - January 13, 2012
Hello, 2006!
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Oh god
bluemax - January 13, 2012
We were watchable for part of 2006!
Corco - January 13, 2012
It's like a pitching Voltron!
VivaAyala - January 13, 2012
that sure ia an intimidating front five.
FML.
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
FML? Fold My Laundry? No.
Jackington - January 13, 2012
Fuck My Life.
Close though…
Aaron Crowley - January 13, 2012
Life must be good if this is what fucks it up
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
I'm hoping its Felix, Vargas, Iwakuma, Beavan, IIIII instead.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Shoulda thrown in Figgins...
missed opportunity.
ATM's34 - January 13, 2012
That... actually might have salvaged this.
I don’t think so, but interesting.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Still time, dust hasn't settled
Craptastic-J - January 13, 2012
Throw in Figgins, use that money to help sign Fielder
That would be cool
Corco - January 13, 2012
Depends on how much money they eat.
Noesi > Campos – $17M.
mkries - January 13, 2012
No, not really.
Figgins salary sucks, but if you think 2012 is a wasted year anyway, then Figgins isn’t hurting the team all that much.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Errr, even if they aren't relevant in 2012 Figgin's salary hurts.
Because that money could be doing other things in 2012.
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
Obviously
but the list of things it could be doing is not that impactful. I’m not an idiot literally saying the Ms can flush 9M and not miss it. I’m pointing out that a bloated contract covering a period where the team is not expected to contend anyway is not as damaging as it would otherwise appear
Matthew - January 13, 2012
On that topic...
Of the top of your head, how much cash are prospects generally worth? Better prospects are worth more, obviously, but how much are we talking for a top close-to-the-majors prospect?
mkries - January 13, 2012
Montero, in pure value terms, probably something like $20M
Matthew - January 13, 2012
So the M's could probably find someone to eat Figgy's entire remaining salary if they just threw in Montero.
But considering it’s not my money, I certainly hope they don’t do that.
mkries - January 13, 2012
I get what you mean in that it's not like the loss of Figgin's contract would miraculous give the Ms the cap space to be competitive.
But not having that money now has an unknown impact on what the roster could look like in future years. It seems a weird piece of cognitive dissonance to talk a lot about value over contract and then dismiss lost money because we weren’t going to be relevant anyway. Team value is built progressively and to say the Figgins contract is less of an albatross because we were not short term competitive feels like sugar coating the shit stick.
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
Holy shit, missing nuance!
I didn’t dismiss lost money! Jesus H Jones. It’s a discounted negative impact, just like the marginal $ per win being on a curve getting higher the closer a team is to the 85-92 win mark.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Okay, discount vs dismiss.
But isn’t the marginal $/win only applicable in the short term in the context of making a playoff run? Does that kind of scaling really apply if we’re not competitive anyway?
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
That's my point!
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Well allright then.
I don’t know why I’m being stubborn about trying to lessen the Figgins sting anyway.
Drew_D - January 13, 2012
Bueno Suerte Senor Pineda
AckAttack - January 13, 2012
Just does not feel like a good trade at all.
I can tell you the Yankees fans in the bar I’m at are ecstatic with this trade
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Well, many are also pissed as well.
Time will tell.
Luisam - January 13, 2012
i think they will get over it before we do
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I think they're most just pissed because they've been tracking and fantasizing about Montero since he signed as a 16 year old.
And now that he’s about to break into the Big Show, he’s traded at the last moment.
Jackington - January 13, 2012
Considering that A-Rod is basically a walking corpse and Texeira has been declining somewhat for the past two years,
There’s a small-but-realistic chance that Montero out produces each of those two next year if he is as good a hitter as advertised.
mkries - January 13, 2012
It would really be great if Alex Rodriguez never hit another home run
Considering his position on the all-time list :(
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
I do think we sold high on Pineda.
But I’m not thrilled about the return.
VivaAyala - January 13, 2012
I am fucking shaking right now. What the fuck.
I don’t think I like this.
the other side - January 13, 2012
In his attempts to fix the offense, Jack has now dealt Pineda and Fister.. and the offense
is still going to be terrible
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
It may not be a popular opinion but..
I was never sold on Pineda, I think that he is going to Nomo out.
plish - January 13, 2012
I would say the injury concerns are valid
But that kid was a special, young player on a cheap contract.
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Guess who else is a young player on a cheap contract
Mariner John - January 13, 2012
Who is considerably less accomplished at this point
And is right handed.
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
They're both righthanded.
As for the “less accomplished” part, when did we start turning into the kinds of posters that regularly got attacked by swarms of bees on USS Mariner?
Prospects may be prospects, but let’s not pretend that there’s no reason to like Montero.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
WHO IS SAYING THAT?
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Merely pointing out that "less accomplished" doesn't mean shit.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Montero is good
But I think it’s fair to say that a player that has had meaningful success at the big league level is generally preferable to a player that has not shown any meaningful success at the big league level if overall talent is equal, and I think it pretty much is here.
Corco - January 13, 2012
But only one of them is expected to hit at Safeco
Is more my point. Pineda has already been to the bigs and had a season of relative success at a major league level. We quite literally do not know if Montero can hit major league pitching yet.
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
We also don't know that Pineda is going to continue to be 2010 Pineda
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
but we know the numbers for 2010 for both of them
And I mean, cmon. Only one played a full season at the major league level in that year.
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I meant 2011, sorry
But the larger point still stands. Pineda has questions about his long-term sustainability too.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Pineda is a great young talent.
Montero is a great young talent.
We’re talking about a full year of ML experience. I’m not sure you can really value Pineda’s single season that highly.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
What's a reasonable projection for Montero's rookie year in Safeco?
.270-.330-.470?
mkries - January 13, 2012
.372/.413/.581
Comma - January 13, 2012
He said reasonable.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Sounds reasonable but I've been drinking so I am a little more suggestable
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Sorry, that was probably the subtlest joke I've ever made.
Those are Edgar’s rookie numbers.
Comma - January 13, 2012
Over a full season, though
The last player to AVG better than .355 over a full rookie season (if I’m using Fangraph’s leaderboards correctly) was Bob Hazle in 1957.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Ha, I get it.
stick in a link to Edgar’s B-R page and people would get it.
mkries - January 13, 2012
Maybe a .350-.360 wOBA.
So, maybe something like .280/.350/.480?
VivaAyala - January 13, 2012
Sorry, last time I bother you, I promise!
Thoughts?
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Looks to be mostly indifferent and us hating it.
w00tah - January 13, 2012
I think you should get a shorter sig.
And I’m not enthusiastic about Montero, either.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Rec'd for the subject, not the content.
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
He's not mod at Pinstripe Alley, so I wouldn't worry too much about his sig.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Why not?
Sorry about the sig
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
The biggest worry seems to be that he will end up as a DH.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
And that he is a RHH coming to Safeco.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
No apology necessary.
He just doesn’t seem like the right fit due to position (DH or 1B someday) and handedness (RH). Montero may be great, but Pineda is a huge piece, so it seems like we could have swung him for a premier prospect at a different position. 3B or OF, particularly.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Mixed feelings.
Excited and scared. More upset over losing Campos than Pineda. I like Montero, but I think we overpaid for him at this point. I hope I’m proven wrong.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
I'm trying my best to remind myself this is the kind of trade that will take a few seasons to determine who "won".
For now I’m indifferent. The team needed offense, but if Montero struggles at the start of the season fans are going to go apeshit.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
and
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
bad mobile commenting
And it would be totally fair for them to be pissed.
Kingdomer - January 13, 2012 via mobile
It would be fair if he struggled over a whole season, not at the start.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I like it. It's not a huge win for the Mariners, but I like it.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I hope Montero does as well as the Yankees' fanbase thinks he'll do.
We love Pineda and are familiar with him and would have liked to see him traded for something quite a bit more, but if Montero can “catch” while hitting like Pujols or something I would start to like the deal.
Slurvey - January 13, 2012
If he catches, that changes everything for me.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
I'm curious actually, what is the general Yankee consensus on whether or not Montero can play catcher.
Slurvey - January 13, 2012
I'm just gonna go for the safe analysis and say this can go really bad for one team, really well for one team or both!
My gut feeling is that I love Pineda a lot, but if Montero is now a Mariner I’m excited for dingers!
Slurvey - January 13, 2012
How many dingers does it take for people to get over Pineda though?
I’m almost expecting near rage after Montero’s first 0-4 day
yakvalleycardinal - January 13, 2012
Which will come in 3 years after Montero goes on a record 402 game hitting streak
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
17
Slurvey - January 13, 2012
I hope so
I struggle to convince myself to pull off this type of a trade in a video game, so I’m even more anxious now that it’s actually happened.
yakvalleycardinal - January 13, 2012
Well, in the other thread people agreed with me that Pineda straight for Montero would be disastrous
And this is a slightly worse than Pineda/Montero straight up because Campos > Noesi apparently.
Seems pretty objective and conclusive that we lost this trade albeit maybe not by too much, but still.
algorhythm - January 13, 2012
If Montero turns out to be the hitter everyone expects him to be, I like the trade.
That’s all it comes down to for me.
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
He's a right-handed hitter coming to Safeco Field
The possibilities scare the crap out of me.
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
If he's got the talent scouts think he has then he'll be fine.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
From what I hear this guy has legit power. Safeco never happened Sexson or Boone so if this guy is as strong as people say he is, I don't think we will have that much to worry about.
Plus, we play around half our games on the road so he still be productive from the right side
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Boone had a ton of opposite field power, yes
Sexson had some (he was still pretty awful). But then of course there was Adrian Beltre. I know everyone here loves him for his defense and all, and sure, point conceded, but Safeco Field absolutely neutered him as a hitter. Or is it a coincidence that he’s put up markedly better offensive numbers everywhere else he’s played?
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
Boston and Texas are great for righthanded hitters.
2004 was a perfect storm of a year for Beltre: everything else was pretty much lines up with his career averages in LA and in Seattle
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Sexson wasn't awful the whole time.
He was pretty dang good in ‘05 and above average in ’06 before he fell off the cliff. I understand it wasn’t what we paid for but Sexson still had a measure of decent success here. 73 HRs in ‘05/’06 for what it’s worth.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
Supposedly he has a lot of power to right.
And he grades at a 70 or so out of 80 for scouts in terms of power so if anyone is going to be able to handle Safeco as a righty it seems like it would be him
Robby The Kid - January 13, 2012
Just not liking this deal right away.
I’m really going to miss Pineda.
Heydude - January 13, 2012
How will they tell
Sabathia and Pineda apart?
Sounders4life - January 13, 2012
One has a glove on the right hand, the other the left.
Jackington - January 13, 2012
Ah, good call, didn't consider that.
Good thing too, that would’ve been awfully confusing
Sounders4life - January 13, 2012
Pineda fattens up because of all that damn pizza.
And then Pineda will get a Subway endorsement.
adamhwong - January 13, 2012
Belt size.
forte40 - January 13, 2012
I forget who did it, but I remember an article wondering who wore the most pinstripes ever. Not that Pineda would come close to Wells or Sabathia though.
HARRYP09 - January 13, 2012
This doesn't make sense. Pineda for Montero alone I consider a slight win for the Yankees.
Campos included? Why Jack?
grips - January 13, 2012
Hate it. Haaaaaaaaaate it :(
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
Montero's minor league numbers seem roughly comparable to Justin Morneau's minor league numbers
.311/.379/.528 — Morneau
.308/.366/.501 — Montero
Morneau’s numbers are better overall, but he wasn’t pushed quite as fast as Montero. I get that Montero’s AAA performance hasn’t been lights out, but Morneau didn’t see unqualified AAA success until he was 23. Getting him out from behind the dish could potentially help Montero’s hitting numbers some, too. (I think there’s been some studies which justify this.)
ubelmann - January 13, 2012
I'd like to know what kind of league the International League is.
Doubt it’s the PCL, but it’d be interesting to know.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
2011 league averages
.260/.329/.400 — IL
.286/.359/.448 — PCL
The PCL league average OPS was about 10-11% higher than the IL league average OPS.
ubelmann - January 13, 2012
That makes things interesting
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Thanks.
Makes me feel a teensy bit better about his numbers then.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Well, his performance was 20% better than IL average this year.
And 32% the year before. I get the impression IL is less hitter friendly than PCL.
VivaAyala - January 13, 2012
IL is a big pitcher’s league.
Andrew GM - January 13, 2012
You need to compare numbers and ages
And that is a huge difference. Makes Montero a much better prospect than Morneau.
Because if you don’t think about those things you would rate Bucky Jacobsen ahead of both of them.
Steve Nelson - January 13, 2012
I mentioned that Morneau wasn't pushed as fast as Montero
In fact, it was the first thing I mentioned. Yes, age matters, but more for discounting performance of prospects who are much older than their level or for prospects who are repeating a level. I’m not really convinced that a year or two in age makes a big difference.
ubelmann - January 13, 2012
It makes a huge difference
Review work done on aging curves. It’s also why there’s so much money to be made with falsified ages.
Steve Nelson - January 13, 2012
I have
There’s nothing to convince me that an 18-year-old’s numbers in AA are any more impressive than a 19-year-old’s numbers in AA. I’ve seen more people overreact to young stats (Delmon Young comes to mind) than I’ve seen people overrate older prospects’ stats.
ubelmann - January 14, 2012
I will always rate Bucky Jacobsen above them.
Mothy - January 13, 2012
Do they still run those Banner
Bank commercials with Bucky Jacobsen in them? Because those were hilariously pathetic.
Liebkartoffel - January 13, 2012
Not to be a jerk, but...
…it is true that Z’s day job is thinking about this team and its success moving forward. I am willing to believe that they considered all the negatives and positives that were brought up and will be brought up here, and then some.
I mean, we are all entitled to our opinion, but don’t you think that we should give Z just a little breathing room before we rip his spleen out for this trade?
gogurt - January 13, 2012
I generally don't get angry over things that help both parties
plish - January 13, 2012
Who is doing that?
I see a vast majority of people either liking the trade or expressing displeasure about it in a rational manner or acknowledging an emotional reaction.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
I just feel like the majority of the people hate this trade
I’m just acknowledging an emotional reaction in the other direction. I’m not trying to instigate anything here, just trying to keep a cool head. No harm intended.
gogurt - January 13, 2012
Hate is too strong.
I think even the people who don’t like the trade are doing so for legit reasons. There are valid concerns about Montero and there are valid concerns about the value difference between Campos and Noesi.
Some of it is going to come down to a personal perception.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
There are valid concerns about Pineda too
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I'm not sure anyone is disputing that.
I am reasonably sure that many people are stating their opinion that the concerns about Pineda are less than the concerns about Montero to them. And that trying to paint it as one side being oblivious to any downside at all is not a helpful dialogue.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
Good thing I'm not doing that, then
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I feel that you have been.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
I feel that people have been acting as if Pineda's downside is 10% likely to happen
And Montero’s is 90% likely.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Which downside? That he doesn't catch?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
DH only, will be completely neutered by Safeco, etc etc etc
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I'm actually quite optimistic about the minimal Safeco effect.
It’s really about the DH for me, and it seems like it’s the majority opinion – and I don’t mean here at LL. Do you have a reference for why you’re optimistic about his catching potential?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
I think it's unlikely he'll stick at catcher, but it's too early to say that definitely
And I think if he can’t play catcher, he’d be just fine at first base. He’s not a bad athlete; catching is hard, period. Lots of guys can’t do it.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Has he ever played 1B?
And if you’re moving Smoak to DH, then you’re effectively adding a DH anyway, right?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
I am not that concerned about Smoak at the moment
Having too much offense is a problem we can solve down the road.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Apparently I am REALLY not concerned about Smoak at the moment
Sorry for the double post!
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
But it necessarily decrease Montero's value to the team.
I don’t think it’s right to just dismiss it. As I mentioned elsewhere, couldn’t we move Pineda for another position player at a defensive position of need? Like 3B or OF?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
I'd be surprised if they didn't try
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Honestly, I hate to say it, but Jack Z has been sacrificing offense for defense so far and it's not worked.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Not ENTIRELY worked.
I’m fine with a move that tries focusing on offense only and figuring the rest out later.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Why do you hate to say something Z probably admits?
Z had his little defense-first experiment and it was an epic disaster. He focused on defense, and our offense became so bad that even Felix had a hard time getting Ws.
The Ms were too imbalanced. Great pitching + no offense = losing season. Jack is finally trying to add offense and it isnt going to cost anywhere near what fielder wants AND montero will likely be producing for many years
briwas101 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I would love the Mariners to have to solve the problem of having too much offense.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Billy Beane Pitt has convinced me that anybody can play first base.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Day one, though?
Does it take an offseason or something to learn the ropes?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Well, I'm sure that if that was something, they could work on it throughout the season.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Has Hollywood taught you nothing?
All it takes is an intense song and a montage.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I think I can safely say that Hollywood has taught me nothing.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
How about Burbank
lemonverbena - January 13, 2012
The brief time I spent in Burbank last year taught me a bunch of things.
Like how to gogoplata someone from mount.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
I think that Ron Washington line was also the best line of the movie.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I'd imagine it depends, but can probably be learned fairly quickly
With dedicated instruction.
Honestly, if I were the 2012 Mariners, I’d tell him he’s the starting catcher for all of 2012 unless he starts having knee problems or something. See if he can figure it out.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I don't see a problem letting Montero start at catcher for 2012.
The team has to see if he can do it. If he can’t then they can make roster adjustments next off season for his position switch.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I want him to platoon DH/C this year.
No need to get his knees all worked up…yet
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I think that he'll get some time at DH as a part day off regardless
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
To be as good as
Jason Giambi?
xmet - January 13, 2012
This is the part where you
realize you’re arguing in circles and everybody stops, right?
Liebkartoffel - January 13, 2012
I agree.
Comma - January 13, 2012
I disagree with that!
Comma - January 13, 2012
Whoa there
Matthew, I did not intend for my comment to be interpreted as applying to all the commenters. I’m sorry it came across that way, but I was just reacting to those who were reacting strongly against the trade. That is all.
gogurt - January 13, 2012
I wasn't replying to you.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
I think people are pretty consistently overvaluing Pineda and undervaluing Montero
It just varies exactly how much.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Also evaluating the deal as it currently stands.
It’s not final YET, so I’m hoping that there is more to it.
Slurvey - January 13, 2012
What if the Yankees throw in a lifetime supply of Oberto Beef Jerky for every Mariner fan?
kschimke - January 13, 2012
Maybe, but I'd be surprised if much of significance gets added
It sounds like it’d be announced right now if there weren’t physicals to be taken.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Everyone but you, right?
Lanky - January 13, 2012
I agree with Jeff.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
No, I'm probably overvaluing Montero and undervaluing Pineda
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
We had a fair amount of the opposite going on at Pinstripe Alley.
Andrew GM - January 13, 2012
Not taking harm.
I’m saying I don’t really see a lot of “Fire Jack Z!!!!” or much remotely similar, which is what “rip his spleen out” implies to me.
Matthew - January 13, 2012
No, this is the internet.
Honestly though, I feel criticism is a necessary thing in move likes this: especially compared to recent transactions that this is most certainly going to draw comparison to.
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
I agree.
Not saying criticism is bad… just raising the point that there is probably a good side to this that Z saw that the pessimists aren’t seeing.
gogurt - January 13, 2012
This went down in the span of about 10-15 minutes, no one had time to really think about it before it happened.
It’s hard to blame people for posts based on emotion.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Trading Smoak/Figgins for nothing and signing Fielder would make me the happiest person in the world.
super rosterbation
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
Really? Trading Smoak for nothing?
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Well
I figure Figgins offsets Smoak pretty well. Also, I’m crazy.
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
Also, my definition of nothing includes the bottom 90% of prospects.
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
Why?
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
Because then Seattle could have one, maybe even TWO, legit hitters
At 1B and DH. Think about it! The Mariners being able to hit! Isn’t it wondrous?
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
Doesn't this trade kind of do that for the team?
Assuming Smoak and Montero live up to their potential.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Don't forget Ackley.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
I'm not, I was just thinking DH/1B.
If you think they will all live up to their potential Ackley/Smoak/Montero is pretty easy to get excited about.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Ahh, true. I fail at reading comprehension.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
That's ok, I misread Shawn Kelley for Steve Kelley up the thread.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Which caused me to post something incoherent
Thanks dick.
Ok, I forgive you.
Don’t trade Smoak (vibe of the subthread, not direct reply to KC). Smoak is cheap, was rated one of the best 12-15 prospects in baseball in the last 18 months, has yet to play a full season of ML ball, and was pretty durned good last season before family death and injuries derailed him. I think most here know this though. Nothing against Carp, but sell high not low. Obvious statements complete.
Craptastic-J - January 14, 2012
THREE
THREE LEGIT HITTERS. Imagine!
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
But trading Smoak for nothing doesn't make sense.
Even if it’s a way to get somebody to take Figgins. If Smoak’s injured thumb was indeed a large factor in his collapse at the plate then you can be reasonably confident that he’ll hit much better this year.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Sometimes I type things and I do not mean them.
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
Hm? Figgins is a -$18M asset right now and Smoak is probably a minimum $30M asset
that doesn’t make any sense
seattlebruin - January 13, 2012
Not really what I meant.
GasolineSnuggie - January 13, 2012
Maybe the Mariners think he can play 3B!
Punkhazard - January 13, 2012
I'm hoping RF after 2012.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Looks like Moetero has significant power to right field
2011 homerun hit tracker. (click for fulll size graphic). If true, that means that he will less affected by Safeco as a RHB, like Bret Boone.
Steve Nelson - January 13, 2012
Needs more dots.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
61 at-bats...SSS!
kentroyals5 - January 13, 2012
More dots?
C’MON THROW MORE DOTS! MORE DOTS NOW! (not safe for work)
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
I like a good 2005 joke.
JAH - January 13, 2012
At least I got chicken.
Patrick Stites - January 13, 2012
When someone says small sample size, this is what they mean.
the other side - January 13, 2012
Nuts!!! I had a SSA disclaimer in there, but I guess I inadvertently edited it out ...
Steve Nelson - January 13, 2012
It looks pretty too me.
I really like the lines leaving home plate. Nice artistic touch. Could use some more dots, i guess
AckAttack - January 13, 2012
As others note SSA applies, but a quiick Google of Jesus Montero and opposite field power ...
… indicates that power to right field has been noted.
Steve Nelson - January 13, 2012
FYI - NY Baseball Digest discussion of Montero - with discussion of opposite field power
Jesus Montero: An Overall Analysis
Steve Nelson - January 13, 2012
He must be pretty bummed
to be leaving that short porch then…
brian.only - January 13, 2012
At least he'll have his Octobers free.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Without a lot of time to digest this, I like this trade a lot
seattlebruin - January 13, 2012
A new Venezuelan for Felix to hang with
Link
kentroyals5 - January 13, 2012
This appeases my irrational side for some reason.
JAH - January 13, 2012
Felix
Someone noted above that Yankees asked for Felix for a prospect package … why wouldn’t the Mariners prefer that? He’s going to be super expensive over the next three years and how likely is it that he would resign with the Mariners?
That puzzles me, IF that thing about the Mariners shooting down a Felix trade above is accurate.
Gradyforpresident - January 13, 2012
Unless he's a baldfaced liar, it's extremely likely that he re-signs with the Mariners
He’s said repeatedly how much he loves Seattle and playing here, etc.
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
That's a very common refrain, about loving your current team/town.
I mean, it could happen, but by your definition there are a lot more bald-faced liars than not.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Felix is lightyears ahead of Pineda in terms of development.
Also, Mariners believe they’ll be competing by the time Felix’s contract is up.
AckAttack - January 13, 2012
Because what the Yankees were offering wasn't worth it?
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Felix really is a proven major league awesome talent
He’s the heart and soul of the franchise- him and Ichiro are the only players that put butts in seats right now
Felix is really expensive, but he’s totally worth the price at this point.
Corco - January 13, 2012
At this point, but won’t the Yankees just come in after 2014 with a contract with huge annual salary?
Gradyforpresident - January 13, 2012
No, they won't. Who says New York will even be an appealing place to play in 3 years.
They have no minor league system and Jeter/A-Rod/Tex/Swisher/Martin will all be basically done. New York has some rebuilding to do in the coming years. And honestly the Mariners will still probably be able to outbid the Yankees anyway.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
The Yankee's MO is pretty buying talent.
Who needs a farm when you spend more than 6 teams combined.
FWIW I disagree w/ this strategy.
brian.only - January 13, 2012
pretty much*
brian.only - January 13, 2012
Except their long-term contracts were eating them up.
Trading Montero frees up their DH spot, which gives them a lot of flexability.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Well buying veteran talent hasn't worked al that great for the Yankees the last
ten years. The core of their late 90s dynasty Jeter, Williams, Posada, Pettite, Rivera were all home grown pieces.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
Orlando Hernandez as well.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
Eh, they snatched him from Cuba, not quite the same
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
He wasn't a proved hired gun though. Like they trotted out with Burnett,
Pavano, Sabathia etc.
kelly20210 - January 14, 2012
And then you remind yourself that he's only just turning 26 this season
He may not be once-in-a-lifetime, but he’s probably once-in-a-generation.
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
A good number of fans are pissed that Pineda was just traded, how do you think the fan base would react to Felix being traded?
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Ritualistic mass suicide comes to mind.
wadswerth - January 13, 2012
On the infield while they burn Safeco down around them.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I heard it was a Japanese thing
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
If we did this trade with Felix instead of Pineda that really would be the final nail in the coffin of my fandom
Corco - January 13, 2012
Your fandom must have shit insurance to be buried like an old west settler
lemonverbena - January 13, 2012
Try being an A's fan...
brian.only - January 13, 2012
I would be happy
We would be a better team if we had traded felix years ago. We will never be good with him
briwas101 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
What the fuck
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
Oh yay, this crowd has showed up.
the other side - January 13, 2012
I wonder if you've ever actually bothered to listen to yourself
cwel87 - January 13, 2012
I honestly think I should just ban you for this.
It might be the dumbest thing anyone has ever said on this website. Seriously. I really hope that not one single person reads what you write here, or anywhere, and values it. Find something else to do.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
We nearly reached the playoffs with a mediocre Felix 4 years ago
Poochie - January 14, 2012
Felix is THE candidate to blow a 'wad' on.
IIRC you guys don’t have loads of money tied up w/ any long term deals w/ FA’s.
Aside from Ichiro he’s the face I think of when I think ‘Mariners’.
I also rue EVERY opening day as an A’s fan knowing we’ll have < 5 hits….
brian.only - January 13, 2012
Griffey, Johnson, Arod
They were the faces of the team and we didnt become a good team until ALL of them were gone.
Getting rid of those 3 = 116 wins
Keeping Felix + Ichiro = what weve been watching for years
briwas101 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
oh okay so it's just that simple
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
Their prospects aren't good enough.
Alex Kelly - January 13, 2012
I am wondering the same thing
We are paying felix over $19m a season now, and pineda will be cheap a few seasons.
I dont want Fielder, but the Ms could’ve used Felix’s salary to get him if they wanted
briwas101 - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Because he is Felix and Felix cannot go anywhere
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
Pineda for Montero is not what concerns me.
It’s Campo for Neosi that is.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I like that part of it less myself, but the Mariners have taught me not to get too attached to low-level pitching
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Yep.
I think that’s a huge part of the general consensus around here too.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
I wasn't thrilled straight up Pineda for Montero. Then I heard more pieces and assumed it meant for us.
Then I heard Campos and I figured even better pieces back to us. That’s where most of my disappointment stems from, I suppose.
kentroyals5 - January 13, 2012
Well things aren't confirmed yet
Might be able to drive up the price?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I actually don't mind that part
Campos is really far off and Neosi seems like he profiles well for Safeco- in that sort of swap I’m happy to defer to Z’s scouts
Corco - January 13, 2012
*Noesi
Corco - January 13, 2012
Yeah
After doing some more research about Noesi, I’m starting to like what I’m reading (albeit based on second-hand information off the internet). Plus, Campos is far off enough to where he’s a very high variance prospect.
JLC - January 13, 2012
Tweets Dave Cameron "Hearing great things about Noesi" (paraphrase)
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Noesi is a very good pitcher and will do well in Safeco
Gradyforpresident - January 13, 2012
Noesi can go fuck himself
AckAttack - January 13, 2012
It's actually much harder than it sounds.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Must be what put the package over the top
lemonverbena - January 13, 2012
I factor in that Jack Z obviously took a very long hard look at Montero in the Cliff Lee business,
and now he must not see Montero looking worse. And we have more starting pitching on the way.
ignacio - January 13, 2012
Is there a rule about ALL CAPS?
Cause where are they? Why aren’t you all Irate? I’m Irate. IRATE!. How can you trade a young arm with an unknown potential? He and Felix are a one two punch for the next five years. I know, I know, we don’t know the nature of the trade yet but dear god what could they be giving us? Do they have secret pitching help? We keep trading them all away.
Great Sergios Ghost - January 13, 2012
It's not like we traded for Victor Zambrano.
Jesus Montero is a big ball of all-star potential.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
IN MIDDLE SCHOOL, I TOOK A CLASS CALLED
“WEB DEVELOPMENT,” AND ONE OF THE UNITS WAS ON “NETIQUETTE” AND THE FIRST RULE OF NETIQUETTE WAS THAT TYPING IN ALL CAPS WHILE ON THE INTERNET IS VERY RUDE, PLUS I FEEL LIKE A CHILD WHEN I WRITE LIKE THIS AND I’M NOT VERY UPSET BECAUSE THIS IS A FAIRLY REASONABLE TRADE.
Liebkartoffel - January 13, 2012
Well aren't you feeling snarky today, Mark
gogurt - January 13, 2012
I am indeed,
person who I apparently know.
Liebkartoffel - January 13, 2012
You totally got tricked!
GSG said caps, then used bold! He is a sly one, to be sure!
Lanky - January 13, 2012
Lanky is a pirate. And smart as paint, I could tell that right off.
Great Sergios Ghost - January 13, 2012
I all Capped on Yahoo.
My epic fail is that we’re discussing my delivery instead of what I want to discuss which is WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE?
Great Sergios Ghost - January 13, 2012
We usually leave the caps to Jay.
No one does it better.
the other side - January 13, 2012
Reading this thread...
it appears as though we’ve traded Pineda for Nick Swisher’s jock strap and an old pair of David Wells’ gout infested game socks.
We now have Jesus freaking Montero and the beginnings of a solid offense. I don’t give a flying flip if he plays team masseuse during innings if he hits the way people think he will.
PLU Tim - January 13, 2012
Honestly, I'm liking the trade more as I calm down
Corco - January 13, 2012
I was indifferent about it when it first went down but I'm liking it more and more too.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
It's just...ah
Seeing Pineda as a Yankee is going to be hard
Corco - January 13, 2012
Those goddamn pinstripes.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
Just start calling him "Not Felix Hernandez" and it will feel a lot better.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
What about Felix Hernandez wannabe?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I hope he starts wearing his hats sideways
Then I’ll come to hate him quickly
Corco - January 13, 2012
It will suck, no doubt.
Still, the more I think about Ackley-Smoak-Montero with the possibility of Carp being for real it’s hard not to get excited.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Believe me ~
it doesn’t ever get easy…
brian.only - January 13, 2012
Barry Zito?
morrow - January 13, 2012
Yep.
I think Jeff will come up with some article later.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
What would give you that idea?
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
See?
EequalsMc2 - January 14, 2012
I liked this trade from the moment I heard it, and I honestly couldn't give you a good idea why I INSTANTLY liked it.
I think I am just a fan of anything that’s super interesting. Even bad trades.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Haha, I feel the same way too.
I was excited just for the fact that there was REAL Mariners news.
Kyleo84 - January 13, 2012
Yup
Aaron Campeau - January 13, 2012
Gross exaggeration.
And I do mean “gross”.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Jesus will fill some seats for ya.
brian.only - January 13, 2012
Okay, I got through about 25% through the comments before I realized I would never have time to read them all, but it sounds like people dislike the trade. But I will be in the camp(os?) that likes it.
Michael Pineda, I love you. But a.) you’re a pitcher, and they don’t tend to last as long. b.) you dont have a change-up yet. c.) you’ve had SOME injury/durability concerns. d.) you’re a pitcher, and we need a hitter. e.) there is a greater than 0 chance that you pitched the best season of your career with Seattle.
Campos, I was really starting to like you this year but a.) you are so very far away from the majors. b.) this was the first year I had heard your name. c.) there’s still not a very good chance you become a #1, 2, or 3 starter in the majors and the chances you start in the majors for a significant time at all are still somewhat minor.
Montero, I still like you because a.) you could potentially still catch a few games. b.) you’re a hitter. c.) I’ve heard you hit to all fields! d.) you’re a hitter. e.) you’re young and instantly become the best hitting prospect we have by far. f.) you’re a gimp.
Montero, that last part was a Wayne’s World joke.
Noesi, I don’t know anything about you yet! Don’t really care! I’d still like this trade without you.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Nice summary.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
One point. I realize Campos is a long ways off and that is the way a lot of people are
ok with his inclusion. However even if he’s four to five years away from contributing that put’s him in the bigs at 23/24 years old. I think his floor is high leverage reliever if he doesn’t catch the injury bug.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
Four or five years has no floor
He could tear his rotator cuff tomorrow and be selling insurance in six months- the old TINSTAAPP adage applies here if nowhere else.
Yes, he could be the next Felix, but it’s far more likely you forget his name and never hear about him again
Corco - January 13, 2012
I'm not saying that we should become an organization that puts no stock in really young prospects with high ceilings..
But let’s not overrate them either. Let’s put it in a really nice perspective… like how Fernando Martinez was just picked up on waivers. Like how Carlos Triunfel was a top 25 prospect once. I much prefer the 22 year old prospect to the 18, unless that 18 is a phenom at high-A or something.
Campos has so much time to go wrong. I’m not saying that I LIKE the inclusion, but it’s of little concern to me. He was a very good prospect and yet he was still our fourth best pitching prospect because we’re that deep right now.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I agree. I just don't want people to write off his inclusion either. Not saying you did.
But I think he has more value than what we just got in return right now.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
Potentially saying that Campos was the sticking point (which he almost certainly was) that you HAD to include, I'd concede him too.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
You're probably right I just wish we could have given them Erasmo Ramirez instead.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
But that's like wanting to trade Figgins for something useful.
kelly20210 - January 13, 2012
Exactly. The list of 19 year old pitching prospects that never hit the majors, or hit the majors and never manage to pitch well
Is muuuuuuuuch longer than the list of 19 year old prospects who become studs.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
See my username.
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
You know, a Montero/Smoak/Ackley core isn't too bad to build of off.
And neither is a rotation of Felix/Walker/Hultzen
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Don't forget Paxton!
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
True true.
Future’s pretty damn bright
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
And Cloude, Nageotte, & Anderson!!!
kentroyals5 - January 13, 2012
You forgot Rett Johnson
Corco - January 13, 2012
I'll give you Anderson, but Cloude and Nageotte were never thought of as highly as Walker/Hultzen/Paxton.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Nageotte was. Cloude no.
Though I’m not sure Clint would have been quite on the Walker/Hultzen/Paxton level.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Walker just finished low A ball. Be careful there.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
Well great... this trade has caused me to forget about my dinner on the stove and burn it.
I’m starting to like it less and less.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Your dinner?
ignacio - January 13, 2012
How many burns above replacement (BAR) was your food?
kentroyals5 - January 13, 2012
There has to be a good 'hot stove league' joke out there somewhere...
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
I want a statement from Montero about this so we can judge his character
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
He's made a statement!
Kentroyals5 posted this up the thread.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Can't believe I didn't see that. That's awesome if it's really him.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
Pretty funny to go to the Yankees blog and see how many of them are pissed about this
Makes me feel better about losing Pineda.
Michael Kearney - January 13, 2012
But they're Yankees fans.
They get pissed about everything.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
They should go watch some GIFs of his pitches
They’d probably be less pissed.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
Keep in mind, they've probably only watched Pineda when he's pitched vs them.
And he didn’t pitch all that well. Living in NY, I can tell you they don’t care or know about any of our players other than Felix and Ichiro (when he was good).
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
Nobody fucks with The Jesus!
MTSea - January 13, 2012
It begins.
Liebkartoffel - January 13, 2012
Let's stop this right here.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
I like to let these things play themselves out, personally.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
A Tebow joke would have worked better.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
This trade sort of reminds me of (pardon the inclusion of hockey) the Erik Johnson/Chris Stewart trade of about a year ago.
Teams swapping young, cheap-ish players from areas of organizational strength to weakness. And both fanbases were ticked off at that trade too.
kentcheesehead - January 13, 2012
Reminds you of Hamilton-Vazquez a few years ago, doesn't it?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
*Volquez
HARRYP09 - January 13, 2012
Whoops.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
So you're saying that by getting the hitter, we win?
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Volquez had a few good years at Cincinnati
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I thought it was more like 1 and some change.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Yeah he got injured frequently.
But I think the stuff was consistent
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Well I like that outcome.
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
Or Beckett for HanRam!
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
But Beckett was 27 or something at the time.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Hamilton was 27.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Techinically that was still his rookie year
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Or Delmon Young for Matt Garza
Sveet - January 13, 2012
Or Vivian 1 for Vivian 2 on Fresh Prince.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I'm trying to get excited for Montero since he does have the potential to be an elite bat in this league.
But the Campos part is holding me back. And not that Campos is such a great piece we can’t afford to lose, but I think it’s the part that makes me feel like we gave up too much. And when combined with the Fister trade which I hated, some aspects of the Smoak trade that embarrassed the organization, the Morrow trade which I strongly disliked, the Donkey signing I didn’t care much for…
But I need to just keep telling myself, Montero is awesome-Campos doesn’t matter, Montero is awesome- Campos doesn’t matter, and I’ll feel better about it. Unlike the Fister trade which is a permanent scar on my soul.
Mothy - January 13, 2012
I think that the Campos inclusion, potentially, has something to do with the extra year of club control.
But I’m just spit-balling.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
And the fact that Noesi is so much closer to the majors.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
There's value in both of those aspects that's not as easy to see as "Campos is a better prospect because of overall talent level"
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Something like this:
Campos: 4 WAR x 30% possibility = 1.2
Noesi: 1.5 WAR x 80% possibility = 1.2
I just made those numbers up, but that’s the basic concept.
Lanky - January 13, 2012
I'm sure it's been said already, but I still can't fucking believe that Montero and Smoak are now going to play together. And here!
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
In retrospect
We traded:
Cliff Lee, Michael Pineda, Jose Campos, Mark Lowe
for
Montero, Smoak, Beaven, Leuke, Lawson, Noesi
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Furthermore, Lueke and Lawson for others I'm blanking on
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Lueke for Jaso.
Lawson for Aaron Laffey.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
That actually makes it even better. I keep forgetting about Jaso and I like Jaso.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
You won't like his defense
Sveet - January 13, 2012
We never like our catchers' defense.
It’s the Mariners’ way.
morrow - January 13, 2012
We have good reason.
jameslcrockett - January 13, 2012
Dan Wilson?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Has it only been seven years?
It seems like much longer.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Lawson for Laffey.
And then Lawson retired.
morrow - January 13, 2012
And still have Paxton, Hultzen, and Walker
We’ve had to deal with absolute dog shit on offense for so long, and I’m absolutely thrilled with this trade.
OceanBird - January 13, 2012
There's a reason it's easier to hate this trade at first
What we know is that we loved Pineda. Now, one that we loved has gone over to the Evil Empire and we must hate him. That’s hard on the emotions.
What we don’t know is much about Jesus Montero. We also don’t know anything about how all four players are ACTUALLY going to perform this coming year and into the future.
So because what we know is painful, it has a way of souring our initial reactions to the whole deal.
Kyleo84 - January 13, 2012
So Ackley-Smoak-Montero?
I’m so excited for this season
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
New post up
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/1/13/2706231/michael-pineda-trade-jesus-montero-mariners-yankees
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
Was Jaime Navarro included in the trade, too?
Awww.
truemsfan - January 13, 2012
I was hoping we'd get A-Rod back as the 2nd player
Poochie - January 13, 2012
Yankees fans appear to be feeling the same way about this trade as we are...
Which is a good sign. And as much as I hate the Yankees, I’ll be rooting for Pineda to do well there.
baltergeist - January 14, 2012
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