Otto Greule Jr - Getty Images
How I will choose to remember him
The first thing to note is that the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees have not yet completed a trade. They have, by all reports, agreed to a trade, and the trade, by all reports, includes Michael Pineda, Jose Campos, Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi. But all the players still have to pass their physicals before anything's official, and you never know if something might turn up. Pineda could have tuberculosis, or Montero could have a catcher lodged in his elbow. The Mariners have gotten really close to a trade with the Yankees before that fell apart at the last moment due to injury concerns. I'm not saying that I think anything weird is going to happen - just that Montero doesn't yet have his name on a jersey.
The rest of this post will operate under the assumption that the trade goes through. The second thing to note is that it doesn't really matter whether or not you like it, or I like it, or anyone likes it. Just for the record, I neither like it nor hate it, but this isn't about our opinions. It's going to happen regardless. It's time to adjust to that reality.
I've written at length about Felix Hernandez trade rumors before. My longest posts were written a few years ago. There's always been an emotional side to things, and an objective side to things. Objectively, there's always been an argument that the Mariners should consider trading Felix Hernandez. Emotionally, no. No argument. Emotionally, Felix was and forever will be untouchable.
But think about what it would be like if Felix were traded. Emotionally, it would be devastating. A not insignificant fraction of us would swear off the Mariners for good. Then we'd come around. Slowly, perhaps, but I'm guessing our bond with the Mariners is stronger than our bond with Felix. We'd look at the trade and we'd rationalize it. We'd do so objectively. We'd have to do so objectively, because doing so objectively would be the only way for us to accept it. "Well, Felix is gone, but this is what Felix was worth, and this is what the players the Mariners got in return are worth, and..."
We never formed the same bond with Pineda that we have with Felix. Maybe some people did, but generally speaking, Pineda was a tier below. But he was still beloved. He was still a prize. He was adorable, he was talented, he was young, he was homegrown...Pineda was an easy Mariner to fall in love with. So that component, that emotional component, plays a role here.
But keep in mind that Yankees fans felt the same way about Montero. Maybe to an even greater degree. Yankees fans fuckin loved Jesus Montero. They'll miss the things they loved about Montero, and gain most of the things we loved about Pineda. We'll miss the things we loved about Pineda, and gain most of the things they loved about Montero.
This trade has to be looked at objectively. It doesn't only have to be looked at objectively, but it can't only be looked at emotionally, either, because emotionally, it sucks. Objectively, it sucks less. Allow me to try my best.
We're going to go player-by-player. We'll begin with Michael Pineda, because why not begin with Michael Pineda? Pineda's 22 years old. He's 23 next Wednesday. He has five remaining years of team control - six, if the Yankees send him to the minors, which they are not going to do. His selling points are that he's enormous, with a hard fastball and a biting slider. Last year, as a rookie, he posted baseball's sixth-best strikeout rate. He also posted a good-but-not-outstanding xFIP of 3.53. Same as Mat Latos, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Nolasco.
Pineda is good now. He also has room to grow. He could improve his command. He could develop his changeup. With a strong changeup, Pineda would be something else. He'd probably be an ace. But here's the thing: an important principle to keep in mind is that pitchers usually don't follow the same development path as hitters. They don't break in and then improve until a peak. Pitchers frequently break in and stay where they are or slowly get worse.
If Pineda stays more or less as what he is, well, okay, he's very good. He cannot be evaluated by his ceiling, because it is unlikely - possible, but unlikely - that he achieves it. He allows a ton of fly balls. His fastball isn't going to get faster. He could get hurt. Young pitchers get hurt. Pitchers get hurt.
You look at Michael Pineda and you think "flame-throwing ace," even though he's not yet a flame-throwing ace. Maybe he'll improve like Clayton Kershaw improved. Then he'd be spectacular. But for the time being, he is a good, young, cheap starting pitcher.
The major piece coming back is Jesus Montero. It would have been funny if I said the major piece coming back were Hector Noesi. That wouldn't make any sense! For those of you who are somehow completely unfamiliar with Jesus Montero, he's a 22-year-old righty-hitting catcher/DH. Catcher/DH seems like an odd pair of positions to mash together. There's a reason why, with Montero, they're mashed together.
The big big question with Montero is whether or not he can stick behind the plate. Consensus seems to be that, no, he cannot. He's caught his whole career, but he's not been very good at it, and he hasn't made long enough strides. I don't know this personally, but I'm assuming it to be true, and you should, too.
If Montero isn't a catcher, that reduces his stock. Thankfully, his stock has been exceptionally high, so reduction isn't crippling. Scouts have always loved Montero for his bat. Just loved him for it. He carved up the low minors, he carved up double-A, and he's hit pretty well in triple-A despite being young. Statistically, his numbers in 2011 were a little worse than his numbers in 2010, but there was talk that he was "bored" still being in the minors, and he performed much better in the second half. Over the first three months, he hit six homers. Over the last three months, including his time in the Majors, he hit 16 homers.
Montero's a pure hitter, with enormous power potential. He has drawn those Miguel Cabrera comparisons. Let's not focus on that too much. And while he's a righty, he's a righty with a demonstrated ability to hit the ball out the other way. That's how a righty succeeds in Safeco Field. Montero shouldn't get eaten up the way Mike Cameron got eaten up.
I don't want to sound like Montero is a guarantee. There's no denying that his triple-A numbers aren't exceptional. He hasn't walked a lot. He does have some trouble making consistent contact. He's proven a hell of a lot less than Pineda has. But when it comes to hitting prospects, Montero's near the top of the list. Everybody wanted the Mariners to find a bat, right?
Moving on, there's Jose Campos. Campos is actually a big reason why this trade leaves me a bit underwhelmed. Campos is just 19, and he's never pitched above Everett, but both his stuff and performance record are terrific, and he would've fared well on prospect lists. I know, I know, young pitching prospects. Campos is a ways away. But one way to think of a prospect is where he might have been selected in the next draft were he available. Campos would be selected early. Losing him hurts the system, no matter how much pitching depth the Mariners say they have.
Finally, Hector Noesi. I don't know if that's "noisy", "nosy" or "no-essy", and I don't care to find out. If you don't know much about Hector Noesi, it's because you shouldn't. He's a 24-year-old righty who threw about 56 mediocre innings for the Yankees last year, mainly out of the bullpen. He was a rookie, and an unspectacular rookie.
However, he can't just be written off as a middle reliever. He has a track record of throwing strikes in the minors. He rolled through double-A. He has a four-pitch repertoire including a fastball that reaches the 90s, so it's not like he got by with finesse. Noesi has talent, and he could start in the big leagues. The Mariners apparently want to use him as a starter for now. I don't know if that means as a starter in Seattle or Tacoma, but Noesi is not being shoved into the bullpen for good.
Those are the four players. If I had to rate this trade on a scale from 1 to 10, where 10 is fresh homemade lasagna and 1 is lasagna that's been sitting in a Tupperware container in the fridge for four months and you can't tell if that's mold or cotton, I'd probably give it a...5? I was originally going to say a 4 or a 5, but I've learned more about Noesi over the past several minutes. I like him more than I used to.
An important consideration is that the Mariners have clearly had trouble finding good hitters. They have had no trouble finding good pitchers. There are pitchers in the system who could conceivably replace Pineda soon. But the offense needed help, and there wasn't much help on the way. Montero could be a force. He isn't an established force now, but he could be. He has strong odds.
I can't get over the fact that the Mariners now have Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. I didn't think that was allowed. Smoak, Montero and Dustin Ackley could potentially - potentially - form a dynamite offensive core. Not long ago that trio would've made baseball people lose their shit. Before the 2010 season - the last time Smoak was rated - Baseball America had Smoak as baseball's #13 prospect, Ackley as baseball's #12 prospect, and Montero as baseball's #4 prospect.
An interesting question is where the Mariners go from here. I don't mean in the big picture; I mean immediately. Assuming the Mariners have money left, on whom do they spend that money? Prince Fielder almost certainly isn't an option anymore. Hiroki Kuroda just got snapped up, right as I started to like him. Do the Mariners try for Edwin Jackson? Do they somehow convince Roy Oswalt to play in the Pacific Northwest for a year? Do they trim payroll and piss everybody off? Do they trim payroll but then put those savings towards next year's payroll, pissing everybody off and then making everybody feel ashamed for getting pissed off?
We'll see. More to do. For now, this trade. It happened. It's a big one. I think the Yankees "won". Certainly, based on the Mat Latos example, they did. But the Mariners added two very interesting young players, one of whom is capable of doing some very interesting and very different things. I'll miss you, Michael Pineda. We all will. But welcome to Seattle, Jesus Montero. That's Felix Hernandez over there. I bet you never thought you'd end up on his side.
4 recs | 637 comments
Pineda is not Felix
He is still our and they will never have him
Lazy_Pochtron - January 13, 2012
Seattle Mariners: #1 Farm System in 2010!
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Was half a season of Cliff Lee really that much more valuable than 5 years of Pineda?
I really don’t understand the addition of Campos in this trade.
Also Pineda was the first authentic jersey I’d bought and I was really excited to get it signed at fan fest :(
cedarA - January 13, 2012
Emotions!
Ya, the whole jersey thing sucks.
forte40 - January 13, 2012
We have to assume that the Yankees would not do the deal without one of our top 4 pitching prospects, and so we gave up #4.
We have to believe that this is the only way it gets done, or it would not have gotten done. So, was it worth it? To move a pitcher for a hitter? For this team? Yes, in my opinion, it was.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I like the potential this move has for 2013-2015
It’s reasonable to expect a rotation that includes Felix, Hultzen, Noesi, and Paxon — and a lineup built around Ackley, Smoak, Montero.
That’s a team I
would beam excited about.Jacson Bevens - January 13, 2012
That potential rotation lost one of it's major anchors in Pineda.
Felix is the only person on that list that has thrown an inning as an MLB starter.
cedarA - January 13, 2012
No question.
I’ll certainly miss Pineda but on principle, I trust the upside/longevity of a young hitter more than that of a young pitcher and this offense is starving.
Jacson Bevens - January 13, 2012
Fair enough, ultimately I think it comes down to Montero being able to hold down the catcher position.
At least for 50 or so games a year.
cedarA - January 14, 2012
Agreed.
But even if he become a DH and occasional 1B, a hitter with .300/.400/.500 potential* is worth it.
*Has oppo-power, a la Brett Boone.
Jacson Bevens - January 14, 2012
If you look at Edgar's 2003 season he put up a 294/406/498 season over 600 PA's.
And he was still only worth 3 WAR, if Montero is going to be an elite player he’s going to need a defensive position.
cedarA - January 14, 2012
3 WAR compared to ANY DH we've had in the last 8 seasons? I'll take it in a heartbeat and call him the elite of the elite.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
If he gets us 3 WAR at beyond-reasonable cost
And club control for half a decade, I’ll take it, too.
Jacson Bevens - January 14, 2012
But at what cost.
cedarA - January 14, 2012
That will always be the question.
The outcome is yet to be decided, but I approve of the process.
Jacson Bevens - January 14, 2012
Honestly, as an M's fan, if we have a hitter that goes for that triple slash with 30 HR... at the cost paid.
So, if he was an average 1B, he’d be so much better? You’re basically saying Edgar shouldn’t be in the Hall. Are you saying that?!
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Edgar put up a career .405 wOBA, if Montero can do that once I'll be ecstatic
cedarA - January 14, 2012
I guarantee it.
(I do not guarantee it)
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
People are willing to pay Prince Fielder 20+ to "play" 1B.
stredarts - January 14, 2012
This gives us a lot of flexibility
If Montero can catch – fantastic. We will probably have won the trade if that’s the case. But if he “just” puts up a slash like the one mentioned above as a DH – that’s still great. We can then grab a 3B or OF hitter with all that money saved.
Losing Pineda hurts – but having a solid offense will be worth it (if he delivers). I’m excited to see how this works – we had to do something and this is a good move.
BennyGStein - January 14, 2012
Yeah, but remember that doing that the run environment in 2003 was significantly different
From the current one. .300/.400/.500 would amount to a much better year vs. the league right now.
Sportszilla - January 14, 2012
Comparing anything to the Cliff Lee trades is just asking for pain.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
Like I said in the other thread...
Different situation. Reportedly when the Yanks were offering Montero + for Lee it was a bit of a mid-season desperation move that was shared by another team, the Rangers. Said Rangers weren’t willing to give up Justin Smoak initially. We don’t know what they offered, but it was less than Smoak +. The Yankees upped the ante with Montero, making it an easy deal for the Mariners to take. The Yanks at the time didn’t really need Montero (arguably they never have needed him), or McAllister (who ended up being dealt anyway), or Adams (who is still unimpressive). I don’t know what the Yankee offer was before Montero was added, but it “sealed the deal”. Then the Rangers blinked.
So, really, Jack Z was in the perfect situation. He had two clubs who REALLY FUCKING WANTED Cliff Lee and he played them against each other beautifully. Presumably, things aren’t as desperate for the Yanks now, what with them signing Kuroda today as well. Despite what one exec reported told Buster Olney, I don’t think the Mariners were going to get a better deal for Pineda that fit what they needed.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
You bring up good points.
I just feel like we really sold low on Pineda in this trade. While there is always the potential he could have gotten hurt this season I think if if we gave him one more season without an innings limit and an additional off-season of practice he could have easily been a 4+ WAR pitcher this year. We could have even moved him mid-season to try and replicate that situation you were talking about above. That IMO would have demanded a Latos like deal, instead of what we got here.
On the other hand I really like the idea of moving Campos, I don’t think his stock is likely to get much higher in the next few seasons unless he really breaks out. I’m not sure how people around the league felt about him but a package of Campos+Vargas for a lower class hitter (Rizzo anyone?) would have left me a lot happier.
Ok no more rosterbating sorry, I’m really gonna miss Pineda though :(
cedarA - January 13, 2012
"He could have easily been a 4 WAR pitcher this year"
These are the types of comments that show how highly people are over rating Pineda and how they are under rating his chances of taking a step back or getting injured. There is nothing easy about being a 4 WAR pitcher, Felix did it once in his first three seasons.
Vegasexpat - January 13, 2012
What about his profile don't you think he can sustain?
It’s not like he came out of no where last year, he was a in the top ~10-15 range in the preseason prospect rankings. Felix posted a 2.77, 3.37, 3.27 XFIP his first three seasons, I don’t see how that is relevant to Pineda.
Pineda’s profile is very similar to Latos, if he can develop either a two seamer or his change up his ceiling is off the charts. And if he stays the same I don’t see how you can project him for less than 3 WAR, injuries excluded.
cedarA - January 14, 2012
Pineda doing as well as Felix in his sophomore and Junior years would be a very satisfactory outcome for the Yankees - making Felix relevant to the comment
But, Pineda is projected at a 4+ WAR, so yeah – could “legitimately” achieve that benchmark without surprising anyone…
blacknoiseNW - January 14, 2012
I wish the Latos trade had never happened, honestly.
Because far too many people are comparing the two as if Latos and Pineda were equally good and equally valuable. I’m not sure that’s the case around the league. Pineda is good, but Latos was a more complete pitcher. There also wasn’t another team out there that needed pitching that also had a handful of blocked / expendible prospects to toss about wontonly. I mean, tell me if I’m wrong on this, but I just don’t see any other team having that many guys they can easily get rid of as surplus. At least positionally speaking. We don’t need pitchers, so a Gio Gonzalez like deal would not have made sense.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
"wontonly"
Buying into the lasagna metaphor!
extavernmouse - January 14, 2012
Is a 5 Lasanga something you buy from the supermarket that's freshly made
but you bake it in your oven at home?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Maybe two month old microwaved lasagna.
w00tah - January 13, 2012
I would say frozen boxed lasagna that you dropped in the litterbox and then washed.
But you’re hungry, so you cook it anyway. It’s fine, if you just think about how it tastes (yay, hitting!) and not where it came from.
Sidi - January 13, 2012
My first reactions are always emotional ones and I have been losing my shit.
I needed that. Thanks.
truemsfan - January 13, 2012
Mr Cheerful
Art Thiel: Expect Montero to be #Mariners DH because he may be a worse catcher than Miguel Olivo, if possible
msb - January 13, 2012
What's wrong with that?
Let the hitter hit and let the catcher catch.
Kyle Curtis - January 13, 2012
Setup for 2013 and beyond
Hate losing Campos and Pineda, but if Montero is Miguel Cabrera 2.0, I think I’ll get over it. If there was one part of our minors that we can fill with top notch talent over the next two years, it is starting pitching. Hultzen, Paxton and Walker should be doing their Cliff Lee, Andy Pettite and Pedro Martinez impressions in Safeco fairly soon.
bumkus - January 13, 2012
Walker needs at least 3-4 years, tops.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I think Walker hits mid-season next year.
He is not that far behind Paxton
bumkus - January 13, 2012
Based on what?
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Walker just finished low A-ball.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Unless you mean 2013.
Paxton is much closer to the majors.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Yes, I mean 2013 for Walker
bumkus - January 13, 2012
That would still be pretty soon, but much more reasonable.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Reasonable, but still optimistic
He’s a young pitcher and they’re not likely going to want to promote him really aggressively in the short term. Most or all of the year in High A for 2012, then AA with a possible with a move to AAA in 2013. If everything is going well for him, he could be up sometime in 2014, maybe even out of Spring Training. That’s if everything is going well for him and he doesn’t hit any bumps in the road. Or flames out altogether.
You never know with really talented players, they can sometimes force their way up to the Majors more quickly than you would expect, but I wouldn’t hold out hope that we’ll see him as a fixture in the M’s rotation till sometime mid-2014.
nathaniel dawson - January 14, 2012
I'm gonna hate this trade until Montero hits his 40th dinger
I don’t care that it’s an irrational hate :(
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
You're going to hate this trade for two years.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Jeff, let me just say this to start off
You’re a fantastic writer. Honor to write for same group of sites as you.
For everyone else, this is the money quote
It was scary how much we loved him. Check out the PSA threads right now, people are going insane!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Be thankful you have Pineda.
He’s a great guy on and off the field.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
This is no disrespect to you, Brandon, but seeing Pineda in pinstripes is going to piss a lot of us off.
A lot more than it will piss off Yankees fans to see Montero in a Mariners uniform. Although it could’ve been worse: it could’ve been Felix.
EthanN - January 13, 2012
And it could have been Texas
That might have had me swearing off baseball
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
I think the Angels would have been worse for me.
Having to live in Orange County, surrounded by Angels’ fans all day, I would just hate it.
EthanN - January 13, 2012
The Rangers are A#1 on my shit list
Number two is New York. Number three is Boston.
Everybody else is just somewhere down below.
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
Or the Angels.
Fuck the Angels.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I will be happy to see Montero hurt the Angels, like he did to Jered Weaver.
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
Understood and expected
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Oh, and Noesi
It’s
No-ess-ee
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
More importantly, does it hurt at ALL to lose him?
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Yes
I had him penciled in as the Yankees #5 starter, but Cashman really likes him. Said he could be better than Nova. He will be a part of your rotation, we just have tons of depth to make up for that.
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Depth = Ca$h ?
Lazy_Pochtron - January 13, 2012
Nah
Actual homegrown prospects!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
He's being cool, don't do that
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Friendly debate, but I think you're overrating Bettances and Banuelos.
At least that’s who I assume you mean. I would rate them both above Nova, but I’m not sold either of them are that good.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Well that's not saying much at all since Nova isn't very good.
flashbeak - January 14, 2012
No, I suppose not.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
It's the idea of the Ackley-Smoak-Montero offensive core that is keeping me optimistic.
Goose - January 13, 2012
How far away is Nick Franklin?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Is he starting in Tacoma this year?
If so, I’d guess a year or two. if not, maybe 2-3? No idea.
Goose - January 13, 2012
Well, in that case, much closer.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I'm guessing AA.
See how he does there first. He’ll still only be 21 this year. No need to rush him.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
We said the same thing for Trufinel
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
And they didn't rush Triunfel...
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
And he's only 21.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Same for Vinny Catricala?
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
Catricala almost certainly in Tacoma
He’s 23, and with how he tore up Southern league pitching last year, not much reason to have him repeat. Franklin likely starting the year in AA, as he didn’t log much time there in 2011.
nathaniel dawson - January 14, 2012
Its about 2400 miles from Jackson, TN to Seattle, WA.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
You know what's gonna be awesome?
A Montero-Smoak-Ackley-Franklin-Rendon infield.
perfectstrat - January 13, 2012
We don't have Rendon.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
We don't have 5 infielders either
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
Catcher
s0merand0mdude - January 14, 2012
But JY said so!
Right here!
perfectstrat - January 13, 2012
I would have paid good money to see Jeff, Matthew, Dave Cameron, JY, marcw, Jon from ProBallNW etc... faces when our pick got announced.
JAH - January 13, 2012
I didn't emote. I wasn't keen on Rendon.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
Also I think I remember that Jeff wasn't paying any attention to the rumors going around.
And my emotion, as was documented, was more about “oh fuck I have to write up the guy that I know the least about.” It turned out to be okay because I came around to the pick, but there wasn’t really one guy out of that group of seven that I liked significantly more than the others. Honestly, despite all the prep pitcher issues, I kind of liked Bundy.
JY - January 14, 2012
In the end, this day must really suck for Adam Moore.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
Most of them do
Jeff Sullivan - January 13, 2012
More so than usual, then.
Cascadian Man - January 13, 2012
Why?
Montero’s not a Catcher
ManifestDestiny - January 13, 2012
Probably the emergency one in case Jaso and Olivo go down
beastwarking - January 13, 2012
Oh yeah, that guy.
Backup catcher of the future!
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Who?
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
Steve Baron too
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
One thing that I can GUARANTEE is that Steve Baron is not a future DH.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
When Baron DH's for the Padres in one meaningless interleague game in June 2019
I will expect you to sponsor the B-R Boxscore page for that game. And in that sponsorship banner, you must provide a link to this comment.
Steve Baron has future “National League DH” written all over him.
mkries - January 13, 2012
Every day sucks for Steve Baron
OlSalty - January 13, 2012
What did he get?
A million bucks at 18?
morrow - January 13, 2012
"For" was the wrong word
Everything associated with Steve Baron is suck
OlSalty - January 14, 2012
In my mind he is a mix of Eeyore and Charlie Brown.
the other side - January 13, 2012
Yeah I too dislike how fair this deal is too!
Maybe Jack wanted to apologize to Cashman by not screwing him over just this once?
universalguru - January 13, 2012 via Android app
What if Pineda suddenly fails his physical?
Oh the irony…
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Because of all those other times he screwed him over?
Dewey N - January 13, 2012
I would be interested to see the difference of opinion if this trade had been:
Straight Pineda for Montero. I personally would have been happier than to part for Campos for Noesi.
I do admit, I do really like the idea of some combination of Ackley/Smoak/Montero at 3-4-5.
And now there’s no conceivable barrier between starting Iwakuma in game two in Japan.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
The inclusion of campos makes no sense to me.
Pineda>montero
Sveet - January 13, 2012
I was banging this drum earlier,
but the more I look into Noesi, it seems like he and Campos could have similar value, when factoring ceilings vs. floors.
I don’t think many people thought Nova was much better than Noesi heading into the year. If Nova and Noesi are really similar pitchers, we may have gotten a deal as we would avoid paying a big premium for the fact that Nova is more “proven”.
mkries - January 13, 2012
Nova isn't a better pitcher than Noesi, IMO.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
Ok I'm a little more excited about this trade than I originally was.
Mostly because Ackley/Montero/Smoak/Carp could be pretty solid for many years.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Where does Carp fit in?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
LF?
ManifestDestiny - January 13, 2012
We don't need another Raul.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Don't we, though?
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Mike Carp takes pride in his defense?
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
Why not?
the other side - January 13, 2012
Defense.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
If he continues to flash the bat I'm okay.
To be honest I had completely forgotten Casper Wells exists.
the other side - January 13, 2012
:(
I still believe in Casper.
JAH - January 13, 2012
I adore his ridiculous dingers.
the other side - January 13, 2012
Me too. Quite a bit, actually.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
Raul averaged about 2.5 WAR per season in left field with the Mariners
While that’s nothing to get too excited about, at least right now, the M’s absolutely need another Raul.
TIFO - January 13, 2012
Yea.
Defense is stupid anyways.
Vogelscheuche - January 13, 2012
And Robinson!
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Felix is ours and you can't have him
Seems troubling that six teams call Buster Olney saying, “Pineda was available?” because maybe we could have done better than this for Pineda.
But, geez.
Felix is still here, and we now have a young nucleus that could be good before Felix must go. That is the prism through which I view this trade. And that makes me happy.
chrisfyall - January 13, 2012
Montero was the best young and up coming hitter that was avaliable.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Yes. Dayton Moore called and said "Pineda was available?! But we had Chris Getz to offer!"
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I mean...maybe?
If there are multiple teams that didn’t know Pineda was on the market, it seems hard for anybody here to declare that Montero was the best we could do.
He could have been!, of course. And maybe the fact that Z wasn’t shopping Pineda around indicates that Montero was the guy Z wanted.
But, uh. Would be nice to hear all the offers, since this deal — while decent, or good, or 4 or 5 out of 10 — doesn’t seem to blow anybody away.
chrisfyall - January 13, 2012
I don't think it needed to blow anybody away.
It’s a basic trade of surplus and need. We needed hitting. Yanks needed pitching. We had pitching. Yanks have hitting. Thus, trade.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I think it just compares very badly to the Latos trade.
The fact that we had to include Campos is just pouring lemon juice into the wound. Does anyone project Montero + Noesi putting up a greater WAR than Pineda over their arbitration years? Let alone with Campos’s potential value down the road?
stredarts - January 13, 2012
Latos is a much more complete pitcher than Pineda
There are parallels that can be drawn, but it’s not really reasonable to expect we’d get that kind of return.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
At this point I can't imagine Pineda's floor being any less than a 2 WAR/Year pitcher.
Even in the bullpen.
At DH Montero is going to have to be a hell of a bat to make up for that.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
I think that's underselling Pineda
But that’s also still not Mat Latos
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Power peaks in two years and he's already kind of a monster.
I wouldn’t be too concerned that he’ll hit well enough to at least be impressive unless his contact problems become a bigger issue at the MLB level.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
Like a lot of other pitchers, Pineda's numbers were partially influenced by Safeco's dimensions.
Plus there’s no telling how he could just as be easily flamed out by his third year.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
His workload has always scared me
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
Which workload though?
He hardly pitched (because of injuries) for a big portion of his minor league career.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Which is why it is scary that in his first year he came close to 200 innings.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
The climb in innings
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
Yeah, you're both right. Though, the M's handled him well, I thought.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Now I wish he'd thrown 230+ innings.
morrow - January 13, 2012
That's a little awful of you
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
Rude.
WestCoastBias. - January 13, 2012
This post is only appropriate because of your user name
edddgar - January 14, 2012
I wonder what it would have taken to get Lawrie.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
More I fucking hope.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Honestly?
Probably Felix.
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
Unless you mean Danielle.
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
You just gave me a hard on.
_Hutch_ - January 13, 2012
While crying with guilt?
stredarts - January 13, 2012
I was just going to ask that.
After, the shit I really liked Pineda was over with. I started to wonder was Montero the best young power hitter that Z could have gotten. The M’s need bats and good bats cost money.
I think we have a pretty exciting young Offensive core with Ackley, Montero, Smoak, Robinson and Carp.
My other question is Montero really that bad at defense? How was he in double and triple A?
InSpokane - January 13, 2012
He allowed more passed balls in AAA then 4 of the other TEAMS in his league
So yeah.
twelveoutof10 - January 13, 2012
So better than Rob Johnson?
joof - January 14, 2012
I imagine there are at least six teams in baseball that don't have anything Jack would've wanted
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Definitely true
…of course, also seems likely some teams that didn’t know Pineda was on the market did not immediately call Buster Olney to exclaim surprise.
chrisfyall - January 13, 2012
Yeah, this is really a stupid report from Olney.
So what if six teams didn’t know. Three of them were probably Oakland, Texas, and Anaheim. But without knowing, we can’t make any judgments on whether Z would have wanted to trade with them at all. So who gives a damn if six teams didn’t know?
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 13, 2012
I could never be a General Manager
My emotional tie to players would just be too strong
MilesC - January 13, 2012
Really?
I would be doing exactly opposite.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Haha how?
“Hey GM what did you want to talk about?”
“How are the wife and kids?”
“Good, just made their first friends at the new school.”
“WELL TOO BAD you’re going to Houston, find a new school there!”
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
A rec for you.
I laughed out loud.
kennerdoloman - January 13, 2012
Glad to hear it!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
That’s probably how it went down for Cashman & Mark Melancon in the Berkman trade.
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
Haha!
Probably!
Brandon C. - January 14, 2012
Never, EVER thought the day would come where I would rec something a Yankees fan said.
Well played, good sir.
Blazer_Fan_Nick - January 14, 2012
There's a first for everything!
Brandon C. - January 14, 2012
In what way?
MilesC - January 13, 2012
I think my reactions were mostly from the fact that I had not prepared myself in any way shape or form for Pineda to go away.
Jack does this every fucking time and I love it and hate it at the same time. Upon calming down, I’m becoming less angry about this.
the other side - January 13, 2012
It really is remarkable
I would bet that Jack is in the top 10% of GMs in terms of the shortest amount of time from initial public rumor to confirmed deal.
Kyleo84 - January 13, 2012
It helps when the media
doesn’t give a shit about anything we’re doing except things concerning Felix.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I don't entirely like this trade right now (except for the part where apparently Pineda was a Yankee fan growing up, so he should be psyched),
but I realize that Jack Z and co. have way more information than me. There’s a few things that would make this trade seem reasonable (for me), and I’m assuming that since the trade was agreed to, the front office thinks at least one of the following is true:
-Montero can catch at least some of the time. If he’s able to catch 40-50 games a year (which would enable us to trade Olivo), the trade looks way better.
-Noesi will be good. I don’t really know much about him, but if he can be, say a #3-4 starter going forward, the certainty of that might offset Campos’ upside.
-They really like Hultzen. Before the trade, the Mariners’ rotation looked like a strength. Now it looks like a weakness. But the FO has been saying all along that they will give Hultzen a chance to win a job out of spring training, and if they really think he can break camp with the big-league team and pitch well, maybe it goes back to looking like a strength again.
I’m still not a huge fan of the trade, but I’m excited to see Montero hitting behind/between/in front of Ackley and Smoak. And to any Yankee fans reading this, please take good care of Pineda. You’re going to love him.
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
Do we want John Jaso catching 110-120 games?
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
If he hits like 2010 John Jaso, then yes.
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
Sure. I'd prefer him catching 110-120 games over Olivo.
Walks!
flashbeak - January 13, 2012
Absolutely.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
Be careful what you wish for
This is coming from a Rays fan and I liked Mikey, but his is an awful defensive catcher
Sveet - January 13, 2012
Olivo is bad, really bad.
He is also not good at the plate. Like really not good. NotOlivo is an extremely attractive idea.
the other side - January 13, 2012
Any questions while I'm here?
About Montero, Noesi, anything?
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
It might have been asked already, but how realistic is it to expect Montero to catch?
Does Noesi really look like a 4/5 starter for 2012?
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Regarding this...
How bad of a catcher was Mike Piazza? When does it become “worth it”?
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
If Montero is anything like Piazza (offense and defense) I'd be fine with him catching.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
They're really defensive opposites.
Piazza was actually a pretty good receiver, but had a terrible arm. Montero’s arm is his biggest (only?) plus behind the plate, but his receiving is terrible. The Piazza profile is the better of the two to have, I think.
PissedMick - January 13, 2012
This sounds just like Olivo
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
It seems impossible to me that anyone could have worse receiving skills than Rob Johnson.
Or to a lesser degree, Miguel Olivo. I have no problem giving Montero a shot to show what he can do behind the plate.
flashbeak - January 13, 2012
In regards to your second question,
fangraphs positional adjustments has catcher at +12.5 runs and DH as -17.5 so theoretically, if a player is less than 30 runs below average over a full season at catcher, it makes more sense to play him there.
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
I think
Noesi will be your #4 starter this season, and do fine enough. He apparently has been improving in Winter Ball, and Cashman really likes him, so they must have really wanted him.
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
How can you say that?
Who are our #2 and #3?
morrow - January 13, 2012
Vargas and Iwakuma
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
I don't really want a Yankee fan coming in here
acting like Vargas and Iwakuma are our #2 and #3 starters. We don’t have a #2 right now and it’s more likely that Iwakuma, Noesi, Beaven, et al will battle for two spots. Pitching is supposed to be our strength. Vargas #2? No.
morrow - January 13, 2012
What? It's not really ridiculous to tentatively slot him 2.
I for one appreciate his input by the way and this seems really dickish.
the other side - January 13, 2012
I appreciate his input too, but
this move changes our priority from a hitter to a starting pitcher and we have plenty of money to sign a good one. There is nothing “dickish” about it.
morrow - January 13, 2012
The Yankees fans who have come here tonight have been really nice
Especially considering that a lot of them were as attached to Montero as most of you were to Pineda.
(I don’t get attached to players, I’m a mutant that way)
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Maybe it was unfortunate where I broke the subject.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Vargas was our number 2 at the beginning of last year.
He started ahead of Eric Bedard(!).
Cramer05 - January 14, 2012
That doesn't mean he was our second best.
morrow - January 14, 2012
I'd assume that Vargas and Iwakuma would come before him in the rotation.
Barring any additional veteran starter additions, that would make Noesi the #4.
flashbeak - January 13, 2012
This
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
I'd say somewhat realistic
I’ve always had my doubts about Montero’s catching, but I think he could be a Posada type
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
This is where I'm at, I think he could be fine as an offense-first catcher
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I'm liking this trade more and if Montero turns into a Posada type I'd love it.
Thank you for answering my questions.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
No problem, glad to help!
You folks really like Pineda, huh?
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
We loved Pineda.
He’s one of those guys who is just happy to be playing baseball and has a great back story coming up through the minor leagues (I believe he lived with one of his coaches last year). He was also a Yankee fan growing up so he should be excited about playing in New York. You guys will love him.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Was he?
That’s awesome, thanks!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
He is a giant puppy dog.
If your city’s media hurts him…
stredarts - January 13, 2012
Haha I'll take good care of him
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
if I ever see anything bad about Pineda in NY media...
I will be a depressed individual for a long time
lagoogler08 - January 14, 2012
Do you feel bad at all in losing Noesi?
Kyleo84 - January 13, 2012
He answered above as a firm yes. thought he was the #5 starter and Cashman thought he could be better than Nova.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Yep
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
I think he could’ve been another Nova, but it’s not the end of the world. I can definitely see him doing well in Seattle, especially getting to face the A’s and soon the Astros a bunch…
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
With a decent defense behind him too.
morrow - January 14, 2012
How was Noesi thought of as a prospect (i.e. before this season)?
Is it reasonable to expect that he’ll improve?
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
Sort of, and yes
He was a “prospect” but never a highly touted one. He has improved in Winter Leagues and gained respect from Cashman
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
He was in the 2010 Futures Game, for what it’s worth.
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
Please use the subject line.
Might be a losing battle in this thread, though.
JLProck - January 14, 2012
I'm mourning the loss of Pineda as well
As an A’s fan my second team in the West is obviously the Mariners and see you guys every spring and throughout the year.
My first time seeing Pineda I wished /hoped/ dreamed we might somehow finagle him from you.
That said, our teams sharing similar deficiencies, I would simply be overjoyed to have the Jesus.
I’ve watched over half the A’s starting lineup crumble more than I care to.
You have to keep in mind Pineda had a significant increase in IP, you really never know what will happen w/ pitching…
They say pitching wins championships, but you need to score some runs first.
Great article Jeff btw.
My greatest concern has to do with my keeper league now but I know better than to ramble about that here.
brian.only - January 13, 2012
So does this open the DH spot up for the Yankees to get Fielder?
ronb78 - January 13, 2012
Doubtful. Carlos Pena is more likely.
Kyleo84 - January 13, 2012
He'd hit so many dingers in Yankee Stadium.
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
I'm sure this will (or at least it should be) deserving of its own front page post at some point
But it’s worth discussing this whole, “Jesus Montero can’t catch/won’t stick at catcher,” statement we’ve heard so much about. First of all, that’s an opinion or a supposition, as no one can accurately predict the future. Second of all, it is more than likely based on the opinions floated by unnamed scouts, who, due to their anonymity, have no track record on which to evaluate their opinions. We all remember what scouts said about Dustin Ackley. Third, and perhaps most importantly, it’s completely irrelevant as to whether or not Montero can catch for the majority of his career. The important question is how much will Montero catch while he is a Mariner. Saying Montero “won’t stick at catcher” could very well mean Montero could be a decent/average catcher for the first 4 or 5 years in the majors, but will then have to move off the position later on. Most catchers have to do so, anyway.
I find it very hard to believe that the Mariners acquired Jesus Montero with the intent to use him as a DH for the next 6 years. It makes little sense to trade Pineda under that context.
JLC - January 13, 2012
Yeah I find it hard to imagine he wouldn't at least get a shot at playing catcher this year.
Mothy - January 13, 2012
I just have such a strong knee-jerk reaction when it comes to definitive statements being made about a prospect's defense.
Especially when it comes to a catcher, which we have a hard enough time evaluating at the major league level, and most of the in-depth WAR-type analysis has been very recent.
Why don’t scouts like Montero at catcher? Is it because he has a terrible arm? Bad foot work? Bad framing? Or is it due to more subjective reasons, like Montero “calls a bad game” or Montero “can’t handle a pitching staff”. What type of analysis are these scouts doing? And even if Montero is below-average, how much in terms of run prevention is that going to cost us? -5 runs? -10 runs? I’d certainly defer to scouts most of the time, but if we’re going to be skeptical about something like UZR values, we can’t just assume offhand that the information we’re getting is entirely accurate.
JLC - January 13, 2012
Add to that the fact that we just really aren't that sure how to measure defense in general, and catcher defense in particular
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Tchaw. Catcher ERA.
every one knows that.
msb - January 13, 2012
I'm partial to Jamie Burke Catcher ERA myself
fiftyone - January 13, 2012 via mobile
So as for the scouting reports,
a lot of it is based on his body. He’s 6’4" and 230+ pounds. He’s big and strong but not particularly light on his feet. He generally gets a lot of stick for receiving the ball poorly. I’ve seen his ability to handle pitches in the dirt especially singled out. He’s supposed to have a relatively strong arm with poor mechanics and reactions. Over 346 minor league games he’s allowed 363 stolen bases. He’s never had a CS% of more than 25%, and his average is 21%. From Fangraphs:
Jiri - January 13, 2012
Victor Martinez keeps coming to my mind
Maybe Montero’s someone who mostly catches for the first 4-5 years of his career (Martinez averaged about 4 fWAR doing so) but as he gets older transitions to 1B. Who knows.
ubelmann - January 14, 2012
You never know.
Remember that “Dustin Ackley will never stick at 2B” sentiment widely written outside of Seattle.
Free Bayless - January 13, 2012
Even I don't think it's exactly the same, we've heard more widespread doubt about Montero
But it’s not an invalid point either.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
That's why I'd like to hear Yankee fans opinions on this, since they've likely seen him more.
WhyGodWhy - January 13, 2012
Every fanbase overrates their own prospects
Sveet - January 13, 2012
Particularly the Yankees.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Different because the issue then was a guy learning a new position.
Montero has been a catcher his entire career and still isn’t very good.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
I don't think it's the best trade.
The best trade would have been “give us Mark Teixiera, Curtis Granderson, C.C. Sabathia, and Robinson Cano, and pay 100% of their salaries, and we’ll give you this signed and framed 8×10 of Felix wearing his zany ‘Larry Bernandez’ disguise,” but I think this was pretty good. Good for both teams, even. Welcome to Seattle, Mr. Montero.
Kouvre - January 13, 2012
Oops, in case you're wondering who flagged it
That was trying to hit the “rec” button. Major fail. Apologies.
gogurt - January 13, 2012
I hope the Mariners cancel the trade and instead trade Pineda to Texas
Punkhazard - January 13, 2012
NO
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
If the M's pulled out of this deal and traded Pineda to Texas for Profar, I would shit myself.
I have some turtle-heads popping out just imagining it. I really like Profar, but I get the feeling I’m going to really hate him someday soon.
mkries - January 13, 2012
I'm nervous
Montero is going to have to be one hell of a hitter to be worth it if he can only play DH and it’s pretty far from established that he can do that in the majors. Also I really liked Pineda :(
OlSalty - January 13, 2012
He's not far from established.
See his September Call up numbers.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
SSS.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
What about Ackley?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
What do you mean what about Ackley?
376 PA is SSS but it’s a fuckton bigger than 69 PA.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
No when he first got called up.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Well then.
In 68 PA he was hitting .295/.353/.525, and his final numbers were all down on that.
So I don’t see how that helps anything. We wont know how close to established he is until at least the all star break.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
I guess it depends on what you mean by established.
My argument is that we called Ackley up with the same number of PAs as Montero is starting now, and look how well he turned out.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Still a SSS.
But he also had five times as many PAs as Montero, so it’s not as much of one.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
Going off a single month?
Boy, I bet the Cardinals are sure glad Bo Hart was their 2B of the future…..
Aly Edge - January 13, 2012
But it's one month of stellar performance after he's been heavily hyped for years.
It’s not like we traded for a guy who no one had heard of and had one great month.
Kyleo84 - January 13, 2012
Yankee Stadium, small sample size
This after posting rather not-great OBP’s in AAA. He’s pretty far from “established” just based off of that.
OlSalty - January 13, 2012
Damnit, why the fuck didn't they send Peguero instead of Campos.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
Because dreams are made for sleeping and love ballads?
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Sadface.
Aussie Mariner - January 13, 2012
I bet Pineda is fucking stoked right now.
the other side - January 13, 2012
But he just lost his buddy.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Hmm, Montero wears the high socks?
I’m liking him more and more.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
So Pineda was a Yankees fan?
Any other interesting facts? What # did he wear? Did he use one big pitch? Do you think he’ll be a star?
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
He probably needs to develop a changeup before he's likely to be a star
That being said, he’s a very good young pitcher.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Thanks for the answer!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
2 great pitches, great attitude, fun to watch, probably needs to develop another pitch.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
Sounds good, thanks!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Pineda has a fastball. It is very good.
Also he has a slider and kind of a changeup. Kind of.
gogurt - January 13, 2012
I see, thanks!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Nicest Yankee fan...
Ever.
forte40 - January 13, 2012
Ha, I try to be
I don’t curse or drink either!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Well don't be boring
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
Ha, that's what I usually hear
Long stories, don’t belong on baseball blog. Just trying to stay classy!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Most Mariner fans start out that way too.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
You're clearly not an M's fan...
There is no way that you can follow this team for any period of time without quite a bit of cursing and a helluva lot of drinking….
Henry H - January 14, 2012
I don't know how it finished, but at one point it seemed like he had the best fastball in the majors.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Finished 4th in ave fastball speed if that's what your referring too.
Probably dropped after his toning it back in early innings later in the year.
the other side - January 13, 2012
Great to hear
Maybe he can teach it to Phil Hughes, too
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Often just blew people away with high fastball at the top of the zone.
Fun to see. The sort of pitcher who might throw a no-hitter sometime soon.
ignacio - January 13, 2012
I think it would be wise to make him your #5 and keep his innings/pitches low.
He’s got star power, but he faded down the stretch last season so keep him healthy and develop him slowly.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Uhoh
Doubt that’s something Yankees want to do.
Thanks !
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Don't listen to them.
Pitch him every third day and you’ll be fine. The guy is a horse.
morrow - January 13, 2012
Yeah, a horse that got overworked last season.
If you want him to last, take the safe route.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
WHOOOOOSH!
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
He's already really good and if he develops the change up he's going to be great.
For an idea on why we loved his personality, here’s a good example.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Oh and to repeat what someone else said, he's basically still a big kid so I hope the NYC media keeps that in mind.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
That may be a problem
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Thanks!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
Cutest player last year on a team with Dustin Ackley and Brenden Ryan.
Which is saying something. He completely dominates when he is on.
the other side - January 13, 2012
Haha awesome!
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
The fans will absolutely adore him.
EthanN - January 13, 2012
That's great
Considering we did adore Montero
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
He has magical healing powers that would get him off death row.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
Oh dear
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
He has a really good fast ball.
His slider can be good to great. Our dearly departed legendary broadcaster Dave Niehaus called it “diabolical” and had an orgasm on air, moaning “that STANK”
JAH - January 13, 2012
Haha that's awesome
Brandon C. - January 13, 2012
I really liked his slider.
He throws it hard and it gets great movement. Combined with his fastball and size, he kinda reminded me of Jeff Nelson, only with the ability to start/pitch more innings.
If Pineda stays the same and doesn’t develop a change or consistently locate his slider, I think he’s similar to Brandon Morrow, with a bit better command. If his change becomes a plus pitch and he stays healthy, he’s probably a top-5 starter in baseball.
I’d guess that his most likely outcome would be a solid 2 who strikes a ton of guys out, but may have a few troubles vs. lefties, especially with the short RF in Yankee STadium.
mkries - January 13, 2012
Thanks for reminding me.
I’m depressed all over again.
truemsfan - January 14, 2012
He's made of candy
Matthew - January 14, 2012
Keith Law says Montero Top 10 "prospect in the game right now"
Upgrade from 21st, or wherever KLaw put him, during the midseason ranking.
chrisfyall - January 13, 2012
His second half last year was much better than his first.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
Right - "an offensive monster without any defensive home," Law writes
“He came down with a little bigleagueitis early in 2011 as he waited in the minors, and his approach deteriorated, but it bounced back in the second half of the minor league season and he hit for more contact and more power.”
chrisfyall - January 13, 2012
According to MiLB.com,
he had a .763 OPS before the AAA All-Star game and a .909 OPS afterwards. Also hit eleven homers in 147 AB post AS after hitting seven in 273 AB pre-AS game.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
He struggled to start the year and everyone got down on him.
Not unlike Dustin Ackley, and how do we feel about Dustin now?
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Dustin was actually pretty awesome, better than we expected really
See earlier LL posts (too tired to look for them right now)
egreenlaw9 - January 13, 2012
I am referring only to April Dustin Ackley and trust me when I say I went to the mat in defending him every time.
I’m almost exclusively referring to people on John Sickels site.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Campos hurts, but
I thought for sure they were going to have to part with one of Walker/Paxton/Hultzen to get a big bat. This is potentially that big bat.
_Hutch_ - January 13, 2012
Pineda > Walker/Paxton/Hultzen
I thought he wasn’t on the table :(
the other side - January 13, 2012
I like the chances with 3 vs 1.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
ALL OF THEM
EVERY DAMN ONE
the other side - January 13, 2012
I don't know what to think about Campos, but I do think the Montero for Pineda aspect of the deal was a type of risk this team needed to make.
So I support this trade fully, even if it’s not as exciting as I hoped.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
The more I read about Noesi, the more I like this.
He looks like a thing.
the other side - January 13, 2012
I agree. Also, his minor league K/BB ratio is quite appealing.
flashbeak - January 13, 2012
The way the K-rate plummeted as he moved up isn't.
PissedMick - January 13, 2012
That would be expected.
If he could maintain a K-rate of 10+ all the way through the minors, this trade would look a lot different to us.
flashbeak - January 13, 2012
There's a difference between 'declined' and 'plummeted'.
A decline would be expected. Going from 11 to 6 K/9 isn’t a good sign.
PissedMick - January 14, 2012
As suddenly I'm seeing a bunch of tweets from people saying scouts are telling them that Noesi has more upside than Nova, I'm getting more ok with that aspect of the deal.
Campos could be an ace but hasn’t even played at a full-season level yet and Noesi’s basically major league ready, so I can see where Jack’s coming from now. It’s a fascinating trade and I really wish I didn’t have an emotional stake in it.
drblacknwhite - January 13, 2012
Nova doesn't have much upside. He's very overrated.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
For everyone sad about Campos, if it helps...
I mean, you probably won’t feel any REAL sadness for another three years, if ever. I’m containing all of my “Ahh damn it!” until some real results happen because that’s all that’s going to matter anyway.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I guess they were kinda forced into doing this if Fielder wasn't a realistic option or face a fan revolt at this point
Maybe that’s part of the reason we overpaid anyways
OlSalty - January 13, 2012
Fielder is still a option?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Probably a lot less likely, but sure, why not?
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I'd way rather sign a free agent pitcher.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
My initial reaction to this was "Fielder must've said he won't come here, finally"
But the two aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive. I’ll grant that Fielder coming here is a lot less likely now though.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Fielder is visiting Texas.
Bad news for anyone else who wanted him. If Fielder’s out of our picture and we have a great bat in Montero (which I think he will be), are we in on Edwin Jackson with the money they were saving for Fielder?
extavernmouse - January 14, 2012
Too many years.
I hope we go for Oswalt instead.
morrow - January 14, 2012
I'd be very happy with Oswalt.
extavernmouse - January 14, 2012
Jackson's pretty good.
CapSea - January 14, 2012
My head will explode if Texas signs Fielder
lagoogler08 - January 14, 2012
Roy Oswalt.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
Yep.
Were his original demands really that high? Kind of surprised that he’s still available.
Coach Owens - January 13, 2012
I think he was originally wanting a multi year deal which teams balked at.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
Pineda has been traded. The unpossible is here.
the other side - January 13, 2012
With how fast this went down and the fact that it included Pineda who knows what the fuck is going to happen next.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
I'm still reeling. This just completely blindsided me.
the other side - January 13, 2012
From the time Crasnik first tweeted it to when it was confirmed was what, 15 minutes?
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
"I didn't know Zduriencik was a Jedi name".
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I was blissfully wasting time at the Mariners Caravan...
In hindsight, I’m totally glad I waited on that Pineda jersey.
the other side - January 13, 2012
I stopped by after work
to see what baseball players were crazy enough to fly to Pasco…. Ted Wilhelmson and Blake Beaven? What, is everybody else chicken?!?
kimalanus - January 14, 2012
Tom. Tom Wilhelmson.
funny guy.
msb - January 14, 2012
Also Wilhelmsen.
Mariner John - January 14, 2012
Maybe all the reports he just doesn't want to play here are true.
ignacio - January 13, 2012
I feel really good about Smoak for this season.
And if we are still in on Prince then he is expendable. I don’t like selling low on him.
the other side - January 13, 2012
I really agree.
ignacio - January 13, 2012
I am excited to see what Montero will do
Also wondering where in the batting order he will be likely to start out at.
wadswerth - January 13, 2012
6?
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
That sounds about right.
flashbeak - January 13, 2012
From 6 to 9?
He doesn’t have the experience to deal with the pressure of batting clean-up with all those RISP.
Kiwi Mariner - January 13, 2012
All those RISP.
JLC - January 13, 2012
All that RISP?
ScottBrowne - January 13, 2012
RISP
Haha, good one.
twelveoutof10 - January 13, 2012
At least I got one laugh.
Kiwi Mariner - January 14, 2012
Chinese gay men talk with a risp.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
I know it's a joke...
…and I laughed, but I just want to point out that it’s the Koreans and Japanese who have problems distinguishing “R” and “L”, not the Chinese. The Chinese language is not related to Korean and Japanese. Just saying.
gogurt - January 14, 2012
I actually know this, but I know most other people don't and probably don't care.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
Noted
I hear you on the “most other people don’t care”, but the few Chinese people out there (like me) will care. It’s not particularly offensive, but it is slightly annoying to always be lumped into the same group as Japanese and Korean people in this way. It’s like some Asian guy making a joke about American people eating snails because Americans and French people both happen to be white.
Just trying to dispel some ignorance, that’s all.
gogurt - January 14, 2012
I could go on with this topic, because I agree with you about stereotyping and such..
But it’s off topic. Moving on.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
That ruins
the last scene in A Christmas Story. Which is ok. It sucked anyway.
wobatus - January 14, 2012
I have to watch that 15 times a year
mlathrop3 - January 14, 2012
Additional Thought:
We’re probably not competitive next year, so losing a win in defense by playing Carp in left isn’t really a big deal, and it gives the team a chance to see how well Smoak, Carp, Montero, and to a lesser extent =(asper wells do. The chances of all 3/4 of them thriving is pretty slim. Smoak struggles, Carp can be 1st base again. Montero struggles, Carp can be DH. Carp struggles, it’s irrelevant. All three succeed as hitters – good problem to have. Carp’s defense doesn’t really matter if that win we lose with him out there isn’t as important and the goal is to see how he does as a hitter.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
If defense doesn't matter
Play him at third.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
If the bigger goal is to see if Carp can hit over a full season, then I'd agree that defense can take a back seat.
KC Mariner - January 13, 2012
If he had any training there, absolutely.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
Did you or did you not preface the statement "Carp's defense doesn't matter..."
With a caveat of said defense being left field? And approximately one win? I’m asking as I’m curious if this meant you were placing intelligent and thoughtful limits on your idea, or if taking the notion of “defense doesn’t matter” to ridiculous extremes is acceptable to you
Kermit. - January 13, 2012
I'm operating under the assumption that a player without training at a position cannot play there.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
It did sound fairly specific, I wanted to make sure I didn't miss something
Kermit. - January 13, 2012
Right now we could have:
vs LHP
C Montero/Olivo
DH Montero/Carp
LF Wells
vs RHP
C Jaso
DH Montaro
LF Carp
Carp will have more than enough at bats.
stredarts - January 13, 2012
The more I think about this the more excited I am.
wetzelcoal - January 13, 2012
Definitely 6
Because Ryan is our cleanup hitter, and he isn’t giving it up without a fight.
bookbook - January 13, 2012
Very interested to see how Noesi does in spring training.
If he does as well as Nova, then I’ll be very satisfied.
Chipanese - January 13, 2012
Whew, glad I missed all the emotional hoopla.
Goodbye Michael, I hardly knew ya.
Dear Jesus, please be the hitter people say you can be.
Your friend, Kim
wazzu93 - January 13, 2012
I'm interested to hear how Montero's defense compares to Rob Johnson's.
Can it be much worse?
Chipanese - January 13, 2012
Probably not possible unless Montero's legs are missing
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Think of how small his strike zone would be!!
wyte_lightning - January 13, 2012
Still bigger than Chone's
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I'm assuming you have showered with them both
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 13, 2012
I don't think "strike zone" means what you think it means
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
This is a better defensive catcher than Rob Johnson.
LINK
mkries - January 13, 2012
Without clicking on the link, I'd like to guess: a fern!
But not too big a fern.
fiftyone - January 13, 2012 via mobile
I clicked.
It’s better….
kimalanus - January 14, 2012
But currently
unavailable.
xmet - January 14, 2012
I'll be a Montero fan for as long as he's in the league
and you guys just got yourself a hell of a hitter. Great kid, great bat, and I hope he gives Angels fans nightmares. I’ve watched him and followed him since the Yankees signed him at sixteen, so I’ll try to briefly pass along some of what I know and have seen.
Firstly, Montero can hit anyone’s fastball, anywhere in the zone and to all fields. If I had to give a criticism of his hitting, it would be a tendency to chase high fastball and commit early on breaking balls in the dirt. He got off to a slow start in AAA last season, then, after giving a few quotes about “waiting for the perfect pitch” made a conscious effort to be more patient at the plate and really took off.
Both of the last few seasons he has had big second halves after somewhat mediocre first halves. If he can maintain his improved plate discipline and get better at recognizing and laying off of major league breaking balls, the sky is the limit. For such a young hitter, he’s very polished and has really unbelievable opposite field power.
Your expectations for his catching ability are probably nonexistant, and so you’ll probably be pleasantly surprised. His biggest attribute behind the plate is a strong arm, with his biggest deterrent being his size. He struggles with the mobility and quickness aspects of catching, especially blocking, but has been working hard and improving. The entire time that he was with the Yankees in September he was doing daily work with Tony Pena, despite being used primarily as a DH. He’ll probably never be great, but given a shot, I don’t think he’ll be a disaster either.
Good luck to you guys, and hopefully this turns out as a win-win, with the Yankees getting the great young starting pitcher that they needed and the Mariners getting a great power bat for the middle of their lineup.
Lord Duggan - January 13, 2012
Thanks for the write-up.
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
No problem.
I’m really looking forward to seeing Pineda more often, but, like most of you I’m sure, the hurt about losing “your guy” is greater than the excitement about the new guy.
Lord Duggan - January 13, 2012
We should just play him behind the plate. We haven't had a catcher that block balls in like
five years. Can’t see how he’ll be any worse.
Rudy4three - January 13, 2012
This was my position as well
as it was hard to imagine him being worse than Jorge Posada was. Eventually, I think his future lies in the C/1B/DH position, a la Mike Napoli, where you play him where you can to get his bat in the lineup.
To the best of my knowledge, the Yankees were planning to have him catch ~40 games in 2012 and hope that he improved to the point where they could bump up his catching load in the coming years. I think he could probably make that happen, especially if he hits the way that I expect him to.
Lord Duggan - January 13, 2012
Sounds like a pretty typical description of a big guy trying to play catcher
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Definitely. He's listed at 6'3 235 and is all of that.
From there you can pretty much extrapolate the source of his defensive struggles.
Lord Duggan - January 13, 2012
Would you say that Montero was the best Yankees PROSPECT (not player) since...
Phil Hughes?
Alfonso Soriano?
Or the Jeter/Rivera/Posada group of the mid-90s?
mkries - January 13, 2012
Well, it's tough to really judge.
I would say that he is the best homegrown talent to come up through the system since Robinson Cano, but Cano was never really all that great or hyped in the minors. I always temper my expectations with pitching prospects, so I’d definitely put him a notch above the Hughes/Kennedy/Chamberlain trio, who certainly were hyped.
Lord Duggan - January 13, 2012
To echo the others, thanks for the info.
We all loved Pineda for pretty much every aspect, on and off the field. You guys got a good guy, take care of him.
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
WHOA
Eyeball Kid - January 13, 2012
Did you just learn about the trade?
mkries - January 13, 2012
He's British.
He probably just woke up. Or was just going to bed more likely.
wazzu93 - January 13, 2012
Just woke up (started a new job today)
If I’m awake I have LL open!
Eyeball Kid - January 14, 2012
Congratulations!
I’m used to you being an up all night owl.
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
I keep thinking that if the Mariners had Montero and Noesi
I’d be upset if they traded them for Pineda and Campos. So is that good?
Easley - January 13, 2012
A couple comments...
1. F*** the Yankees
2. What is Montero’s contract like?
3. I know it’s off topic but is Jack Wilson still on the team? ( I was thinking about Nick Franklin)
4. F*** the Yankees
luciuswolfey_96 - January 13, 2012
Jack Wilson was just resigned to a 1yr contract with ATL
gogurt - January 13, 2012
Montero is under team control for 5-6 more years
EequalsMc2 - January 13, 2012
.
1) We swear here. But the Yankees didn’t really do anything wrong.
2) All rookies are under 6 years team control. He has all six left.
3) He was traded last year during the season. He has not been on the team in a while.
4) We swear here. But the Yankees didn’t really do anything wrong.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
1),4) The Yankees still exist. Fuck em.
Edgar for Pres - January 14, 2012
I'm not sure why the Yankees are the problem here
pdb - January 13, 2012
The Yankees are fairly low on my hate list these days
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Feels weird
JAH - January 13, 2012
That's what out of contention feels like
egreenlaw9 - January 13, 2012
You're all so wrong
The Yankees are still very, very hatable. I find your lack of hate disturbing.
(/ \)
(I’m Force-choking you now in case you didn’t notice.)
short - January 14, 2012
Make sure you save some for the Yankees.
morrow - January 14, 2012
I just hate the Yankees in general. They're the Yankees.
I was wondering why I hadn’t seen Wilson in a while. I was worried Montero had a 2 or 3 year contract.
Thanks
luciuswolfey_96 - January 14, 2012
Their respective BR pages have all that information.
tsunamijesus - January 14, 2012
Thanks, I should have realized that.
I need to stop asking stupid questions
luciuswolfey_96 - January 15, 2012
While I'm here and talkative, a few words on Hector Noesi:
I’d consider him to be much more than a throw in, and despite having a lower ceiling, I’d say that he has a much higher floor. However, I think that the Yankees really did him a disservice this year in the way that they handled him. After 117 innings in 2009 and 160.1 innings in 2010 (almost exclusively as a starter, he had a few relief appearances at the beginning of 2009), he was poised to make 30 starts and throw a full season.
Instead, he languished in the bullpen where he would go 10 days without work, be used in long relief, short relief, pulled quickly, left in to take one for the team, etc. For whatever reason, an unspectacular but fairly promising prospect in his first taste of the majors got relegated to a mop up role, and it seemed like his performance suffered as a result of that.
As Jeff rightly said, his best attribute is command. He throws his fastball to both corners, can throw his breaking ball for a strike, pitches efficiently, and really limits his walks. Not all of that showed up last season, but with a chance to start every five days, I think he can be serviceable. I’d say that his biggest flaw is in pure stuff. He doesn’t have quite enough juice on his fastball or enough dive on his breaking ball to dominate, but I don’t think being a middle of the rotation starter is out of the question.
Lord Duggan - January 13, 2012
Can Noesi be Fister 2.0?
Because I really miss Fister.
Matsui - January 13, 2012
I'll bet you do
short - January 13, 2012
He certainly has the control and throws 92-94mph on his fastball.
I’d be ecstatic if he did, but somehow I feel Noesi was destined for more than that.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
The joys of Girardi
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
Thanks again.
This makes me feel a bit better.
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
I'm just sad.
It really doesn’t matter to me if you knew the future and said Montero was going to be amazing. I’d almost rather lose with Pineda than win a few more games with a guy the Yankees seem to have been shopping for some time. I’m not rational at the moment and read all the objective critiques I could find but I’m still just sad.
hcoguy - January 13, 2012
Awh quit being such a pussy
baseball is a business. Trades happen. The Marners have been trying to improve their lineup for how many years now? It’s not like they had a lot pieces to work with to make it happen.
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 13, 2012
You'll last a while here I'm sure.
hcoguy - January 13, 2012
Sorry, I was just trying to make you feel better
ive had a few too many tonight and my “boyfriend” is out doing who know what, and then all the emotion of this deal. My bad. i read this site a lot and just strted posting. well oops no off to the best start. ssorry no harm, no foul?
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 13, 2012
No problem.
I’ll be over it by opening day. But still probably sad again game 2…
hcoguy - January 13, 2012
Montero is a stud, I'll root for him in Seattle.
Can’t wait to see what Pineda can do though.
William_H_HOLLA - January 13, 2012
I haven't sat down and watched a Mariners game in quite a while.
If they are serious about getting some offense (and it appears they are) I might have to come back and give them another look.
Michael Harp - January 13, 2012
The weather must be getting a little better.
JLProck - January 14, 2012
Damn right.
If I want to watch bad baseball, I’ll watch little league.
Michael Harp - January 15, 2012
I'm not sure about this one.
Obviously I’m not quite over the emotional aspect of it. I liked Pineda. It was nice having a rotation that we knew was reliable, and he seemed like a really nice guy. On the other hand, attracting pitching to Safeco is always going to be easier than attracting hitting, and we do have Paxton/Hultzen/Walker coming up soon, so from the “replaceability” end of things this makes sense.
I do think Noesi for Campos is a good idea at the moment; who knows what we’ll be saying three years down the lne. And I think that, in the long run, Montero may end up being more useful to this team than Pineda would have been. The only way in which this trade looks kind of bad to me is when it’s compared to the haul that the Padres got for Latos.
One of the better things about this trade is what it implies the front office is doing. I can’t see them not letting Montero catch, and we just got Jaso, so I think there’s a good chance that Miguel Olivo is not long for this team. I think that trading Pineda conveys that the front office is optimistic about holding on to Felix for a while longer. And I’m glad that people are finally going to shut up about Fielder now. Unless we sign him. That would be crazy.
ThirteenOfTwo - January 13, 2012
Enjoy Montero
Jeff summed it up well – I think you value Pineda as much as we value Montero. I’ve looked forward for a long time now to seeing Montero crush pitches all over Yankee Stadium, so it’s tough now that he’s a Mariner, but I’m excited to see Pineda in pinstripes.
goyanks69 - January 13, 2012
It's easier to find 5 aces than hitting on a 3-4-5.
Mayo - January 13, 2012
Not if the dealer's showing a face card. Then basic strategy tells you to hit every time.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
Nobody actually has 5 aces
Most don’t even have 2.
MT Olson - January 13, 2012
Getting more and more excited about Montero...
For the first time all year I say “oooohhh 2012 season please get here faster!!!”
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
29 days until pitchers and catchers, woo.
wazzu93 - January 13, 2012
Yeah, Jesus just made 2012 more fun to watch
The M’s may not be a lot better. But they will sure be more intriguing at first.
fiftyone - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Oh God the Jesus puns...
I can see it now. I didn’t even think of…. oh the horror.
hcoguy - January 13, 2012
Oh crap, I wasn't even trying to be a smart-ass punmaker (that time)
But uh huh, it’s not going to be pretty.
fiftyone - January 13, 2012 via mobile
It also doesn't help things one bit when you start with "Oh God"
:)
fiftyone - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Flagged
hcoguy - January 13, 2012
It's not really a pun.
CapSea - January 13, 2012
Can we just start calling him Zeus?
Yeah, I know it’s still a god figure, but less prone to abuse. We know the M’s announcers will nickname him “Monty”, I’m just trying to get ahead of the curve.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
I'm partial to "Fredy"
fiftyone - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Why don't we all just cut the crap
and start celebrating the fact that we found ourselves a new Jesus! The puns have been thin since Colome left.
doublemazaa - January 13, 2012
Can I call him Tebow Montero?
short - January 14, 2012
Please don't.
ignacio - January 14, 2012
Montebow?
Sounds almost like a bay…
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
I think the Beach Boys sang about it once.
KC Mariner - January 14, 2012
More like a cider.
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
Is Fielder truly no longer an option?
I think Montero splitting time at a few games at C to give Jaso a day off, DH and 1B, we can fit Fielder in. He spends most time at 1B, some at DH and then Smoak on the rest of the days
ichirofan5197 - January 13, 2012
I wouldn't be surprised if this move didn't come together due to something happening with Fielder right now
But that’s purely conjecture on my part.
In any case, he’s less likely than before but not impossible.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
Fielder isn't some guy you just "fit in."
If you get him, he plays every day. Usually north of 155 games.
fiftyone - January 13, 2012 via mobile
Holy crap, 162 games in '09, then 161, then 162
Dude does not sit, and he’s never played DH, at least in the majors.
fiftyone - January 13, 2012
I didn't mean bench him, but make it work.
ichirofan5197 - January 14, 2012
I think we still go after Fielder and trade Smoak if need be
Or, hell, trade Montero. He’d certainly have more value and could be the headliner of a package for someone big.
I think having Montero gives us a potential big bat if Fielder goes elsewhere, as seems likely. But I think if you view Fielder as the type of guy you can commit that much money to, you can make it work somehow. Even if that means running with Montero at catcher for a while if you can’t find the right deal for Montero or Smoak.
AndrewMcQ - January 13, 2012
You don't trade a player like Michael Pineda and a prospect like Campos, only to hope that you can trade the return for someone else.
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
I'm just saying that if Jack really believes in Fielder that much, I think he'd find plenty of takers for Montero to get something else shiny
It isn’t the hope, but Jack still certainly has the option of signing Fielder. If we have that much money, I’d almost certainly prefer to spend it elsewhere. I just wouldn’t rule out Fielder yet.
AndrewMcQ - January 13, 2012
If anything, it makes me think Jack was like "ehhh. Not going to sign Fielder, better movie on."
There couldnt have been much of a deadline to make this deal with New York, so you’d sign Fielder then trade Pineda/Campos for a 3B, real catcher, or SS.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Since we're speculating wildly, if Fielder is out, I wonder if that means the Rangers failed to get Darvish.
Drew_D - January 14, 2012
I doubt it.
They have until next Wednesday.
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
I certainly wouldn't put it past Jack to trade Montero before spring training
But this is the second time he’s tried to acquire the guy, so that seems… unlikely. Now when it comes to Smoak, that’s another story.
fiftyone - January 13, 2012
Jacky Z will only move him if an amazing deal shows up. I don't think he'll shop Montero around
ichirofan5197 - January 14, 2012
As Dave Cameron said, how I feel about this trade depends on what happens next
In isolation, I don’t like a DH, even if he can hit a ton. I’d love to get EJax if his price comes down (as it likely will), as I think he could fill #2/#3 solidly for 4 years. But I’d love to see a more creative way to spend our money, assuming we have it. Something for a 3B or a LF bat, or a new pitcher.
As far as DH/C goes, I think Z has got to have part time C in mind. The difference in positional adjustment between C and DH is huge. He could put up a fair amount of negative defensive value and still be worth more as a catcher.
AndrewMcQ - January 13, 2012
I don't agree with people who are talking as if him being a catcher is totally out of the question
He is still young (22), and by all accounts is just BIG, not a bad athlete.
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
If Montero shows he can pass for a catcher,
and hits the crap out of the ball like he’s supposed to, are you an advocate of moving great bats out from behind the plate to preserve his health?
mkries - January 13, 2012
I always wonder about when people say "he's not a catcher long-term"
I think a player can lack some basic skills but make up for it in athleticism for the first little bit of his career. I don’t know if I buy Dustin Ackley as a 2B later in his career, but right now he has the athleticism to make up for traditional infielder skills.
If we get four decent years of catching out of Montero before he gets pushed to DH, then he’s a much bigger value.
AndrewMcQ - January 13, 2012
If he's got the athleticism for it now,
By the time he doesn’t he should have enough reps to have the skills to make up for it.
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
My favorite player ever was a DH who could hit a ton
short - January 14, 2012
Though he would be in the hall if he had played 3rd more.
tarheels24 - January 14, 2012
Or was called up earlier...
JY - January 14, 2012
Or if the writers could get their heads out of their asses and think straight...
EequalsMc2 - January 14, 2012
Or purchased a ticket like the rest of us.
Jackington - January 14, 2012
Or was white.
Sorry, who are we talking about again?
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Too bad he couldn't field.
msb - January 14, 2012
Hearing the deal at first mostly just stunned me.
It came completely out of no where and I was surprised and a little upset about losing Pineda. But the more I think about it the more fine with it I am. You can’t always fleece the other guy and win the trade. I think this was a pretty solid needed talent for needed talent trade. Though admittedly I don’t know much about Campos.
TWownsU - January 13, 2012
Churchill says we actually chose Noesi OVER Nova. Interesting.
Comma - January 13, 2012
The general consensus seems to be that Noesi is better than Nova
Jeff Nye - January 13, 2012
I'd like to think that Jack kept saying Nova to fake out Cashman over his interest in Noesi.
msb - January 13, 2012
Learning to love the deal
Mostly I’ve just had a lot of questions like:
Isn’t Pineda for Montero straight up already a good deal for NY? Why add Campos?
Answer: Because Noesi could actually start in the near future wheras Campos is further from the majors. With pitchers distance from the majors represents a lot of added risk.
In other words Noesi for Campos may, in Jack’s eyes represent a net gain for the M’s. Hmm.
Another question. Wouldn’t Pineda for Alonso and Grandal all by themselves be a fair deal? How did we not offer this to Cinci? Why would they not take this deal over what they got? Frankly when this deal went down I figured Pineda was off the table.
Answer: Jack loves Montero. Jack just thinks he’s the best young hitter he could get. Montero’s Jacks man and he was focused like a laser on getting him.
So in both cases my questions boil down to whether or not I trust Jack. Frankly the guy’s been right about players. Time and again he’s made great calls on the players he’s picked up. He knows more than you do. Unless you’re JY. Or a couple other guys. You know who you are. But even then, probably he does.
The deal happened and I’m comforting myself that Jack probably has a plan here. We have a very good young hitter now and that’s liable to make games more fun next year. Yay.
short - January 13, 2012
Jack's not usually the kind of GM who says "I want that guy!"
He’s more of a “I need X”, where X is the position or role of the player. Back when he dealt Putz, he stated that he wanted a centerfielder, not that he wanted Franklin Gutierrez specifically. He may have had Franklin in mind, but not so much to ruin the deal. He’d have taken another centerfielder if one presented itself.
Though I don’t know if this is totally true or not. Getting Lee seems to imply that he didn’t necessarily target Lee, that just kind of fell into his lap. But trading Lee away seems to imply that he really wanted Smoak, or a quality of player like Smoak / Montero. He really couldn’t have lost either way but obviously thought Smoak was the better option at the time.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
I thought the trade with the Yankees failed with Lee
Partially because one of their “prospects” failed their physical.
EequalsMc2 - January 14, 2012
Obviously we don't know for sure what happened aside from what was officially stated.
I think there’s a strong enough implication to say that there might have been some shenanigans on the part of Z to take the other deal instead. It’s not like the Yankees couldn’t have figured out a different middle infielder to toss in when Adams failed his physical. Or another player entirely.
In terms of value, there isn’t much difference between McAllister and Beavan and Adams and Lawson. Then again, the Lowe part of the deal was not equal in value for Lueke. Lueke may have been a problem child, but he was healthy and good while Lowe had an injury history and had not quite lived up to his potential. Thus, getting Lueke was probably a win in that part.
Anyway, there was a report that the Rangers didn’t offer Smoak, then offered Smoak at the “last minute” as the Mariners had reached an agreement with New York. The only way to get out of a verbal agreement / contract would have been to find some flaw in the other party’s good faith. Adams actually DID turn out to be injured, so it could just be a case of coincidence, but somehow it feels not at all coincidental.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
The Mariners knew he was injured when they made the deal.
That part wasn’t a surprise. It was the extent of the injury that gave them the out. Or so the story goes.
morrow - January 14, 2012
The injury issue with Adams caused the Yankees' deal to fall through.
Upon learning the extent of it, Zduriencik did not feel comfortable with the initial parameters of the Cliff Lee deal and wanted to work an alternative. Neither side could agree to an alternative package. As Cashman once said, “Oh, I had him.” Sounded like he could’ve thrown in anything Zduriencik wanted to get the deal done but he was kind of on the edge on how much he wanted to give up. Cashman and Zduriencik ended on better terms than what was initially reported.
ThundaPC - January 14, 2012
I never bought the idea that there was any bad blood between them.
That was NY Media hoopla. All I was insinuating was that Jack may have taken an out. Remember, all that shit happened REALLY fast, at least from our perspective.
Much like this deal.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
Are you kidding? He's pretty openly stated that Gutierrez was "his guy" and the "guy he wanted all along"
Same with Smoak.
Corco - January 14, 2012
I don't remember that.
In fact, I recall Cameron pointing out exactly what I said.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
I seem to recall that Blengino was adamant about Gutierrez and talked Z into getting him into the deal.
Two Rs and Two Ls - January 14, 2012
Must have been at one of the meets.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
I remember reading an article where he said he ran across Guti years before the trade and never forgot him, marked him down in his book
Can’t remember where it was or who wrote it, I will look around.
Craptastic-J - January 14, 2012
For what it's worth...
I think I remember reading that, too.
Aussie Mariner - January 15, 2012
I can't find it now, but I think it was Shannon Drayer or Larry Stone talking about Jack's history with Guti.
That he scouted him when he was with Milwaukee. Oh well
Craptastic-J - January 15, 2012
I can be sold on Montero if he does two things
1. Show no hint of the bad attitude he supposedly showed when sent down to AAA.
2. Hit. Catcher, DH, whatever… fucking shortstop if he’s asked… he’s supposed to be this great hitter, well then, hit. Line drives and home runs and a gaudy OPS+ and baseballs in people’s sandwiches in the Hit It Here Cafe, or else he’s just another overhyped yankee prospect.
I want to believe in a lineup that starts Ichiro-Guti-Ackley-Montero-Smoak-Carp, I really do… l like the thought of time travelling back to the Cliff Lee trade and saying “know what? someday we will have both Montero AND Smoak”… but man, losing Pineda stings.
Chris_FB - January 13, 2012
Mulling this over for a couple hours
Pineda > Noesi by eh, 1-2 WAR maybe?
Montero > whoever at C/DH by again, let’s say, 2-3 WAR?
And Campos is far away from the majors.
Back of the envelope calculations make this trade look like a net gain for next season, and Jack filled two ML roster spots at once. Hard to hate the move, except for losing Stan the Motherfucking Man.
fiftyone - January 13, 2012
I think that's a nutso comparison basically taking Pineda at his likely worst and Montero at his likely best
Matthew - January 14, 2012
You're considering 2-3 WAR to be Montero's likely best?
Really?
Jeff Nye - January 14, 2012
A 2-3 WAR upgrade over whoever we would be playing at DH was the comparison
Presumably our DH would be a bit above replacement level.
OlSalty - January 14, 2012
Ah, I misread
Still though, it’s not like we’ve been putting out much WAR at those positions the last couple of seasons. I still don’t think 2-3 WAR over a “a bit above replacement level” is Montero’s ceiling.
Jeff Nye - January 14, 2012
4 WAR as a DH seems a rather accurate upper end projection for him to me
That’s a pretty great hitter. Which would be neat, but I think a case could be made Pineda’s upside is a bit better than that.
If Montero was a catcher his upside could be much higher, but by most indications he’s not a realistic option there.
OlSalty - January 14, 2012
Pineda at his worst will be worth more than 1-2 WAR over Noesi, most likely
But that isn’t the point. Montero and Pineda project to the same WAR, and Noesi is likely to make a positive contribution to the lineup. A net gain this season is the probable outcome.
blacknoiseNW - January 14, 2012
Of course - the argument assumes that Montero DH's
And that the Mariners would be unable to plug in a 1-2 WAR DH with in-house resources or a FA
blacknoiseNW - January 14, 2012
Nutso?
Pineda 3.5 WAR vs. Noesi 2 WAR is a step down;
Montero 2.5 WAR vs. Present Bag Of Uncertainty’s 1 WAR is a step up.
You’d say those projections are outrageous for 2012? Come on. I respect your opinion a lot, obviously, and I like Pineda’s upside as much as the next guy. But it’s easy to see the trade as at least a wash while supplying the team with a threat from the RH side of the plate, something it was sorely lacking last year.
fiftyone - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Yes, I thought that was nutso.
You held Pineda to either the same or worse level of performance from last year while substantially upgrading Noesi’s 2011 numbers. And now you’ve amended your numbers for Montero, going from being a 2-3 WAR upgrade to a 1.5 WAR upgrade.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
I'll grant you that I'm pushing the limits of optimism
From the M’s perspective, at least. But it’s more fun to imagine things breaking right rather than breaking down.
And yes, I made the numbers come out even. If you’d like, I’ll add five more runs to Montero’s year, play him behind the plate a little more, and make another half a win appear. Consider it done.
It hurts to trade an exciting cost-controlled pitcher away to a hated team. But getting back two immediate contributors making league minimum – that’s pretty cool, especially if they don’t both have to be superstars in 2012. Just solid-to-good.
fiftyone - January 14, 2012 via mobile
For Montero to be worth 2.5 at DH, he would have to hit like 120-130 wRC+
That is an aggressive projection for a guy who with an 850 OPS in AAA
stredarts - January 14, 2012
The more he plays at C, the higher that WAR goes
If he catches 40 games, that’s significant. If he only plays 120 games, and almost never behind the plate, then yeah, 2.5 to 3 wins is probably out of the question.
Whatever, though. These are just fluffy guesses by some random guy in a comments section. The point is, he doesn’t have to turn into either Mike Piazza or Edgar for the trade to work, from the M’s point of view.
fiftyone - January 14, 2012 via mobile
For every 40 games he catches he gets about +5 runs in value
Dave thinks he can be a 3 win DH, which would mean about 25 runs in offensive value or a wRC around 135. I’d also point out that he put up that .850 OPS at the age of 21.
mebpenguin - January 14, 2012
That doesn't sound right.
If a catcher gets about ~20 runs for catching 160 games, and a DH loses ~15 runs for DHing a whole season, he’d get the +5 for catching but he’d also be almost 4 runs more valuable by not playing DH, right? So catching 40 games as opposed to playing DH for 40 games would give him closer to a full win improvement.
SgtSasquatch - January 14, 2012
And then you factor in any runs he might give up behind the dish, but the positional value should still work like that, I think?
SgtSasquatch - January 14, 2012
I should have explained my reasoning.
A catcher’s positional adjustment is +12.5, a DH’s is -17.5 and I’m assuming Montero is a -10 catcher. If you work out all the math with those assumptions than every 40 games he plays at catcher are worth about 5 runs assuming all his other games come at DH.
mebpenguin - January 14, 2012 via iPhone app
Also, huge props to the visiting Yankee fans on the blog tonight
You were all very helpful, cordial and classy. Hate your team, but respect you guys. Good on ya.
Chris_FB - January 13, 2012
I'd wish they'd all shutup so I can start hating them again!
Kenneth Arthur - January 13, 2012
Yeah that was weird.
and nice!
WestCoastBias. - January 13, 2012
Defintely.
You guys are certainly welcome here.
Goose - January 14, 2012
Not a problem
Any questions always feel free to ask!
Brandon C. - January 14, 2012
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/12/watch-out-for-hector-noesi-36780
Pitching velocity is up to 93-95 consistently in winterball, hitting 97.*
*Probably not very accurate.
But interesting regardless.
WestCoastBias. - January 13, 2012
If true, that would really change my opinion on the trade.
It’s not unheard of to get rumblings of this kind of thing over the winter…. but still, as I was mulling it over I was feeling as though I was settling into the camp of “I was okay with it as a 1-for-1, but less as a 2-for-2”. Now, if Noesi does have this supposed velocity boost, that changes the look of our depth to the extent that I care less whether Campos becomes useful or interesting in any way.
That’s what the rational part of my brain says. The emotional part is still super bummed about losing Pineda.
JY - January 14, 2012
If true, I would wonder why he's not striking out more guys in that league.
Rudy4three - January 14, 2012
Less than adequate secondary stuff?
I know he throws four different pitches, but I haven’t heard if any of them are particularly good ones. Also, Winter League stats may or may not mean anything if the player is “working on something”.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
IIRC Nosei is working on being stretched out
so K/9 down there isn’t the best example, if he’s going deeper into games than he’s used to.
Nosei was rushed through A-AA-AAA so it’s hard to project how he’d do at the MLB level. His xFIP as a reliever in the MLB was the same as Doug Fister’s all season though (4.03).
valencia - January 14, 2012
He wasn't that rushed.
Most of 2009 spent in A ball, most of 2010 in AA ball. He was probably not ready for the majors in 2011, so there is the rushing, but apparently the Yanks were desperate or something.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
I think you pretty much summed things up for me, as well.
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
THE ONE FUCKING DAY I DON'T GET ON LL
AND SHIT ACTUALLLLLLY HAPPENS.
WTH.
Robert Praetor - January 14, 2012
The reason this trade sucks
is that you never EVER do anything that might help the stinkin’ Yankees.
grumpyoldfan - January 14, 2012
Just realized I didn't use a subject line on most of my comments.
Sorry about that. Different site, different rules, my bad.
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
Good grief, you guys have been great today.
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
STOP MAKING US NOT HATE YOU
Cascadian Man - January 14, 2012
Now I feel like a dick because I called you on it a few minutes ago.
You nice fucking Yankee fans need to take a hike.
JLProck - January 14, 2012
Haha no worries.
Andrew GM - January 14, 2012
You did it again!
You’re making us look bad!
Brandon C. - January 14, 2012
And you shortened your sig!; you are adorable.
He followed me home, Mom. Can we keep him?
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
I did!
I actually thought he was right, it looked annoying. Who cares about those quotes anyway!
Brandon C. - January 14, 2012
The more I hear about Noesi
The more I see the trade as Pineda for Montero plus Noesi, with Campos thrown in as insurance against Pineda breaking down or not improving as a pitcher. Why does this matter? Because I think a lot of people saw Pineda for Montero and said “Whaaaa? What else are we getting?”
Campos is a promising young pitcher years from performing on a major league team. He’s got a ton of talent but guys like him at that level have a relatively low rate of panning out. I still think the M’s came out no worse than even given what we know today once you include the risk that comes with pitchers.
short - January 14, 2012
It looks to me like Noesi is likely to be quite useful. This year.
ignacio - January 14, 2012
I have a weird thing where I want to see the face of new M's players that I'm not familiar with what they look like. So, i dont know, here's Jesus Montero.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Oof. Noesi
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Wow.
Montero’s pretty handsome, but Noesi looks like the love child of Alexi Ogando and a frog.
WhyGodWhy - January 14, 2012
And
Jar jar binks.
wobatus - January 14, 2012 via mobile
I have a new favorite player
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 14, 2012 via mobile
x
Keep Noesi in the majors and he makes this face:
Send him back down to the minors:
Lord Duggan - January 14, 2012
Montero seems to be a bit of a cutie.
Patrick Stites - January 14, 2012
Subject line
Craptastic-J - January 14, 2012
He's a lot less mongoloid than I expected.
Drew_D - January 14, 2012
Well, this is not the Cliff Fucking Lee trade, but it might do.
Felix is still ours and you still can’t have him. Pineda, I’ll miss you, but now that you are a Yankee, I hope your arm falls off.
TrustBaseball - January 14, 2012
If Ackley/Smoak/Montero would have made people lose their shit,
imagine Ichiro/Ackley/Smoak/Montero/Jaso.
ThirteenOfTwo - January 14, 2012
Holy shit
abender20 - January 14, 2012
The Catricala Era
Postponed
wobatus - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Why would it be postponed?
tarheels24 - January 14, 2012
Just kidding
I thought he was more a DH type and Montero may DH, but I suppose they’ll try him at catcher.
wobatus - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Not really.
He can play left field and third, he’s just not great there.
JY - January 14, 2012
Callis
says he belongs at 1b and scouts doubt his bat speed. You gotta love the production, especially in AA. I like him but most folks outside Ms fans don’t seem to know him or believe there will be a Catricala era writ large. I love the minor league guys with numbers the scouts dismiss. And he isnt old for the league.
wobatus - January 14, 2012
He has always been ahead of the reports.
Being a 10th round pick basically does that. I haven’t seen many people question the bat recently, just the fact that he doesn’t have a set position.
tarheels24 - January 14, 2012
Yeah
That was Callis in September. But hard to believe he can’t hit given those numbers. Cal league is one thing, but he torched AA even if briefly.
Btw, I’m a unc alum. That was one depressing loss today. Never seen them blown out quite so badly by an unranked team that I can recall, although Florida St played great. I’m assuming you are a fan.
wobatus - January 14, 2012
Needs to hit in Tacoma first.
abender20 - January 14, 2012
My biggest problem now is the possibilty of people not properly appreciating Pineda
Because his ERA will probably be higher next year, just because of more fly balls turning into homeruns, so people will complain about him regressing and not being able to handle the pressure, while he’ll still be perfectly fucking amazing.
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 14, 2012 via mobile
I just saw
on minorleagueball someone say he’ll regress against al east hitters and in Yankee stadium. Made me cringe.
wobatus - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Noesi
Rhymes with pleurisy. Or Fister.
wobatus - January 14, 2012 via mobile
It's Noesi being green!
Kiwi Mariner - January 14, 2012
Nice
And someone else said he looked like a frog. Maybe his nickname should be Kermit.
wobatus - January 14, 2012
He's going to have to be pretty fucking spectacular to live up to that name around here.
Eyeball Kid - January 14, 2012
Not a regular
So I have to ask what is the relevance of Kermit round these parts?
wobatus - January 15, 2012
Never mind
I see Kermit is a regular.
wobatus - January 15, 2012
If he's bad, I'll be screaming "this guy is so esi!"
JY - January 14, 2012
I guess there are noesi answers.
msb - January 14, 2012
I heart yous guys.
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
Just imagine if he pitches a no-no
No fun intended
Kiwi Mariner - January 15, 2012
I like this a lot more after sleeping on it.
For all the reasons listed on LL and everywhere else. The biggest being if Jesus can catch some amount of games, monstrously valuable if that’s the case. And if he, you know, lives up to the hitting potential thing. Some nice young cheap hitting talent around now.
And Noesi being ready now/soon compared to Campos’ 2-5 year wait.
At a minimum, even for those who hate the trade, this is pretty interesting and gets people talking. And Jack Z did it again, pulling a pretty unexpected exciting move out of what seemed like thin air. This offseason was pretty boring so far (Note: Boring doesn’t equal bad) but this gets me pretty hyped for the season to start. NEW TOYS! Most of the needs were addressed to some extent and there is still room in the budget and on the roster for more neat things.
Jack Z’s “trade crowbar” pried the lid off the coffin
Craptastic-J - January 14, 2012
This reminds me of a trade with the Yankees of old
We got overhyped Yankee prospect Russ Davis and not so great pitcher Sterling Hitchcock in exchange for Tino Martinez, Jeff Nelson, and Jim Mecir. Davis lasted two years, Hitchcock one, Tino became a long term Yankee, Nelson a bullpen stalwart. That was a fleecing. I don’t like getting overhyped Yankee prospects. The Yankees publicity machine makes this guys better than they are just to suck in teams like the Mariners
New England Fan - January 14, 2012
Jesus Montero's hype has a lot more to do with the opinions of scouts and actual talent evaluators than it does with the New York media.
flashbeak - January 14, 2012
It's not like the Yankees have never been fleeced.
Ever heard of Jay Buhner?
bmxnw - January 14, 2012
Or Ken Phelps?
ambrosia2112 - January 14, 2012
One of the few things on Seinfeld I outright laughed at.
jwolf0 - January 14, 2012
Jerry Stiller
He really sold that, the slow burn then the angry outburst “why the hell did you trade Jay Buhner?!”
wobatus - January 14, 2012
You're a nutcase
abender20 - January 14, 2012
Also, reading through the comments on Brandon C's post at Pinstripe Alley
Helps improve the mood on the trade for anyone having trouble with it. I know this was mentioned above, but this actually does look like a trade that works for both teams.
Also mentioned above, thanks to the decent Yankee fans for their input. I was going to reciprocate but hit that 24 hour posting wait wall. And now we wait 12ish hours to see if “bad” Yankee fans also hit that wait wall when applying last night.
Craptastic-J - January 14, 2012
What is depressing is how they all think finding a bat is super easy.
stredarts - January 14, 2012
Here's how this makes perfect sense.
If Jack Z thinks Montero is capable of similar or near output to Fielder (asking a lot) then that saves this team between $20-25 million per season over the next 5-7 yrs. A solid #2 starter would likely come in at less than that, depending on the evolving market. As such the M’s will have a little profit to work with. The Campos part does disappoint me though.
universalguru - January 14, 2012 via Android app
Campos looked great in Everett,
I have to keep reminding myself that it was short season A ball. the good players always stick out in Everett, and a bunch of them get moved halfway through the season if they are any good. He was there the whole season, mainly because he was young. As mentioned above Campos is 2-5 years out still. If we got 2 guys that are ready for the Majors now, it’s not a bad thing.
After sleeping on it, I like it a little more, but yeah, I still think the Yankees got a little better deal and I will miss Pineda.
What are the odds we have Montero show up for Fanfest, just to get traded before Spring training? It’s happened before! (Before I get flamed, this is a Joke)
ambrosia2112 - January 14, 2012
What's the difference between a average-to-bad 1B and a DH?
I’m probably going to make some of the more analytical guys around here cry with how I’m (probably) misusing numbers, but here goes…
Looking at Montero, he doesn’t appear to be of the ‘bad-body’ mold of a Fielder/Cabrera/Butler. The biggest knock I read of his catching is that he’s just too big/lacks some catcher mobility. Assuming it’s not his hands/coordination that’s bombing his odds at being a catcher is it that farfetched he could be some sort of defensively run neutral 1B? Or even save a run here-and-there?
Someone said a .300/.400/.500 season as a DH would make him a 3 win “David Ortiz” but a .300/.400/.500 season with modest defense at first would make him the Padre version of Adrian Gonzales, which sounds rad. What am I doing wrong?
SgtSasquatch - January 14, 2012
Just to make things clear...
I’m not saying he’s going to hit .300/.400/.500, or even that he’s a safe bet to do such a thing this was more in response to the arguments that his value is crippled by not catching. Also, this brings up the issue of even if he could play a modest first base that lowers the values of the other 1B/DH guys on the team too.
SgtSasquatch - January 14, 2012
Or even if he could find a way to spell Olivo for 40 games the next year,
If a catcher gets (about) 20 runs/year as a positional adjustment and a DH loses 15runs/year… If Montero catches 40 games that would be +5 runs, and then if he DH’s the other 120 games that would take off about 11. That’d give him a positional adjustment of about -6 runs, or the average hit a left fielder takes over the course of year.
Even if Montero is half as good as Olivo behind the dish, that would only lose him 1 to possibly 2 runs over his 40 games which would still place his positional value at somewhere in between LF/1B.
SgtSasquatch - January 14, 2012
Olivo is really not that hard to spell.
I’m sure he’d figure it out after one game not forty.
M'sFanatic - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Olivio
JY - January 14, 2012
Just saw this spelling and it's new to at least me:
LOlivo.
extavernmouse - January 14, 2012
It happened quite a lot last year.
JY - January 14, 2012
He's never played an inning, at any level, of first base.
So any thought of moving him there should be coached in highly speculative or wishful language.
And the difference between 1B and DH is 5 or 10 runs in terms of positional value depending on if you feel the DH hitting penalty would apply to someone already a quasi-DH. For reference, the difference between C and DH is 30 or 35 runs.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
I say we move him to third
Poochie - January 14, 2012
I had that same thought when I first heard of the trade too.
mebpenguin - January 14, 2012
Because anything is better than letting Figgins play 3rd.
w00tah - January 14, 2012
I think Seager is going to surprise people.
In a good way, not in a Figgins way.
morrow - January 14, 2012
The next surprise I want from Figgins is his retirement
Craptastic-J - January 14, 2012
I'm still hoping this whole trade is a trick
and that once Pineda enters the Yankees clubhouse, Figgins will emerge from inside Pineda and slaughter all the Yankees.*
*not really, mostly.
morrow - January 14, 2012
It'd be worse for them if he popped out with a contract guaranteeing he starts at third >145 games.
I wonder if we could have thrown Chone in and said “eat his salary and this deal is done” despite the Yankees’ cutting salary all offseason, which I considered when imagining this.
tsunamijesus - January 14, 2012
That would explain where Figgins went last season during his "injury" and also why Pineda was not as good the 2nd half
Hard to pitch with a small man stitched up inside of you. I just hope Michael TauntaunNeda survives the birthing.
Craptastic-J - January 14, 2012
People have said that Montero's physique improved noticeably over the course of last season.
If there is any GM in baseball who would make a crazy and unexpected position change for someone like Montero, it would be big Z.
neel - January 14, 2012
His bat profiles better at SS.
haha, funny joke, Kenneth.
Serious question: Is it grammatically correct to say “Bat profiles best at position X” Sounds weird to me.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
From Olney's blog post today:
I think this is pretty interesting. Then again the Mariners also thought Rob Johnson was a catcher when in reality he should have been a mascot.
SeaKoala - January 14, 2012
However, in this case, Montero's bat might play in a 1B/DH role.
This isn’t like our previous scenarios of “good bat for a catcher, bad anywhere else”
JY - January 14, 2012
If this is true does that mean Olivo is the odd man out here with Jaso being the back up
This opens up some interesting possibilities
beastwarking - January 14, 2012
What the Yankees say about Montero at this point means about as much to me as what YOU think about Montero. And that's nothing against you or anyone else here.
It’s just that I don’t put any stock into what the Yankees say about Montero or Noesi.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
The value of having Montero catch for even half the time is significant.
If he’s a poor catcher but not a disaster (-10 runs), and he can catch about 80 games while DH’ing the rest of the time to keep his bat in the lineup the value of having him catch is about 10 runs over having him DH, so about one win over the course of the season.
mebpenguin - January 14, 2012
I have figured out that part of my sadness stems from Dave's "DIABOLICAL!" exclaimation
I won’t get to relish that we have Mr. Diabolical anymore.
Though I bet Dave would have had some quality exclamations if he saw Montero blast a 400 foot bomb to the opposite field.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
That said, after my initial guttural reaction I thought this was a good trade
Purely because we are both dealing from positions of strength, and we are filling a need.
I know Campos has a high ceiling, but he’s so young it doesn’t bother me. Even if he wins a Cy Young at 25 the memory of him being a Mariner will be dim.
And we’ll have those 3 WS titles in 2013-2015 to savor. Errr, yeah.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
We needed a #5 starter, maybe we got one. Otherwise, we traded a young pitcher for a young hitter, and in that sense, I'm happy.
Campos has little meaning to me at this stage in his career.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Pulled from the Cliff Lee 2 trade threads:
That would be cool.
joof - January 14, 2012
If he has that kind of plate coverage I'm gonna love him to pieces.
Omerta - January 14, 2012
I thought that when I first heard about the trade.
Knowing what I know of Montero, which is moderate in amount, my dream is that he gets a chance to play every day from age 22 and becomes the next Edgar, if Edgar were given a chance and for every start Gar got at third Montero gets at catcher.
Why not?
tsunamijesus - January 14, 2012
I doubt Montero will have a 5 year stretch where he posts a .450 OBP
Poochie - January 14, 2012
People probably doubted that about Edgar when he was 22.
I’m not saying Jesus WILL to that, just saying that you can’t predict that from ANYBODY. Edgar’s didn’t have a .450 OBP season until he was 32, then he had 5 in a row.
Edgar didn’t have .450 in the minors until he was 25 and in AAA.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
*do. And *Edgar not Edgar's. And...
Oh fuck it, what a messy post.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
I'm just saying that comparing any prospect to a hitter that amazing is ridiculous
Poochie - January 14, 2012
We totally agree
I just like stats and talking and shit.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
Exactly.
Montero is much more of a Barry Bonds type.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Good, then he can hover on water.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
I love Johjima!
frithsblessing - January 14, 2012
Perfectly timed.
wilsonpdx - January 14, 2012
Hopefully Pineda pitches ok but hates his NY experience,convincing Felix to re-sign with the Mariners instead of opting for free agency in a few years.
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
I think he's a Red Sox fan anyway
JY - January 14, 2012
I don't want Pineda to do well.
Sorry. He’s not a Mariner anymore and he’s not a veteran that played a long time with Seattle and on top of all that he’s a Yankee. It’s not like I’m saying “fuck him” but I really don’t want to see Pineda become a Cy Young winner. It might be too much to say “i dont want him to do well” but I hope he has a long, not-very-special career.
Of course, if Montero does great, then I’ll probably feel different about that.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
I want him to do well for my own reasons.
But what I want more is for the Felix/Montero battery to become the stuff of legends in the U.S., Venezuela, and parts beyond.
JY - January 14, 2012
I admit.
When I found out Montero was from Venzuela, it actually made me like the deal more.
Because I irrationally believe it will cause both him and Felix to re-sign!
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
That's why I said pitches ok, which to me equals not very special. :)
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
The funny thing is, I hope he has a long and okay career, but makes BOATLOADS OF MONEY
Because that probably means the Yankees are the ones giving him a boatload of money and take one step towards crippling their franchise. Then I get to feel good about Pineda making money, too.
HititHere - January 14, 2012
It's kind of like the Walking Dead.
One moment they’re crying over the loss of a loved one and then, three days later, they have to blow his head off with a shotgun.
I hope he never pitches against the Mariners, is traded to the Cubs, and makes the Hall of Fame.
morrow - January 14, 2012
One last time...
SeaKoala - January 14, 2012
It just breaks my heart to see that face
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 14, 2012
Just poked around on Pinstripe Alley
and thought you’d all like this, from Brandon C., who was really cool when he visited with us last night::
extavernmouse - January 14, 2012
We'd heard that before, both yesterday and weeks ago, and it's still a terrible offer.
You don’t trade Felix for that.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
I think the only for that trade ot work would be that + Cano. take on Figgins and his contract, send AROD to us while eating 3/4 of his remain salary, giving us Nova and supplying the city of Seattle with a years supply of cupcakes
Even then I might balk on this one
beastwarking - January 14, 2012
Just out of curiosity Matthew, how would you feel about that + Brett Gardner?
I’m not rosterbating, I’m just wonder how good you think Gardner is/how much of his value comes from playing in New York.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Still no.
Frankly, I just don’t trade Felix.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
How about 2011 Felix for a 2007, 2008 and 2009 Felix?
EequalsMc2 - January 14, 2012
Plus two Ditkas and a Butkus
short - January 14, 2012
Is it only the Yankees that think a superstar for a bag full of possibilities is an equal trade?
Maybe that’s what annoys me about them. It’s never seemed like they ever offered anything close to reasonable. Trade your superstar fielder/hitter for our pitcher then I’m at least listening.
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
You're not really just trading the prospects for the superstar straight up
You’re trading the prospects for the superstar’s value above his current contract. If you’re just looking at the players involved, of course you don’t do it. That said, I still don’t trade Felix unless the offer is absolutely amazing. Then again, I have an unabashed love for Felix so I’d probably never trade him.
UW2010 - January 14, 2012
the yankees trading philosophy reminds me of half the managers in my fantsy league
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 14, 2012
Oh, yeah, I agree.
extavernmouse - January 14, 2012
Wooooooooo Yankees prospects are the best!
Next article: “Yankee fans upset when Dombrowski refuses to trade Verlander to Yanks for jar that Banuelos farted in.”
HititHere - January 14, 2012
i think the winner of this trade is to be determind by who stays the healthiest
if Pineda stays health, then I think the Yankees will get the better of the deal, but its still hard to say. And there is always the possibility that all parties win.
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 14, 2012
Smoak playing 3rd base....
This is 100% unrealistic… right?
lagoogler08 - January 14, 2012
He throws left handed.
Aussie Mariner - January 14, 2012
If he was really devoted to this team, he'd learn to throw right-handed.
EthanN - January 14, 2012
Like Billy Wagner
learned how to throw left-handed.
xmet - January 14, 2012
Bobby Valentine, asked by Andrew Marchand to comment on the Yankees’ trade for Michael Pineda and the signing of Hiroki Kuroda:
"They’re probably an upgrade from Colon and Garcia. Probably. I don’t know. It seems it … Pineda, when I saw him the first half, he looked unhittable. Second half, he looked OK." [The Mariners] saw a lot of him and they traded him. Kuroda is a good pitcher — a year older than he was last year, pitching in the American League and not the National League, pitching in not a great pitcher’s ballpark from a great pitcher’s ballpark."
msb - January 14, 2012
Pineda is soooo going to no-hit the Red Sox in September.
mkries - January 15, 2012
I hope you guys will enjoy Montero being a part of your team as much as we did.
He’s a great kid and a phenomenal talent. I’m extremely sorry to see him go, but look forward to watching his career take off. Good luck this season, you guys.
WhatwouldJeterdo - January 14, 2012
This
is from the #1 Montero fan out there.
Brandon C. - January 14, 2012
This whole "Hey look we're all awesome posters" thing is just to trick us into liking the Yankees, isn't it?
Cascadian Man - January 15, 2012
Dave has decided he likes Noesi more than he initially thought he would.
USSM
JY - January 14, 2012
I just read that and ran over here to make sure someone had posted it.
Makes me feel better. I love Dave.
Aussie Mariner - January 15, 2012
Living in Everett...
I got to see Campos 3 times…I’m honestly almost as upset about losing him as Pineda. He has electric stuff. I’ve hardly ever walked away from a ballpark seeing someone physically dominate hitters like he did. I know it’s low-A and there’s a LOT of time for something to go wrong, but he has serious potential.
That said, M’s need bats and the upper management isn’t willing to add payroll, so this was a necessary move. Let’s just hope Montero works out.
EverettMsFan - January 16, 2012
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