About a day later and my overall feelings surrounding the Jesus Montero and Michael Pineda trade have not changed much. I'm not going to rehash the details of the trade. You know them and the general thoughts on the players involved by now and if not, you can find them easily. Just scroll down for instance. Instead, this is wholly about my personal reaction, thoughts and responses to some common themes that I've been reading.
First, I should dispel a myth. Michael Pineda did not fade down the stretch. I'd bet heavily that a majority of people saying that are looking no further than his won-loss record or ERA by half. Pineda posted a winning record and a 3.03 ERA before the All-Star Game and a 1-4 record with a 5.12 ERA afterward. If that's your way of measuring how a pitcher performs, then a conclusion that he faded is justified. That's a terrible method though and is quite misleading. Here's how Pineda's ability to throw strikes (Zone), miss bats (Miss) and his corresponding walk and strikeout rates (per batter faced) changed month-to-month.
That's not much variability at all over relatively similar sample sizes. Pineda faced 126 batters in April, 126 in May, 156 in June, 118 in July, 95 in August and finally just 75 in September when he was shut down early for reaching his innings limit. Pineda's home run rate did spike in the second half, but most of his superficial results were driven by random events, not a degradation in his core skills.
Another argument I've read that I abhor is anything along the lines of "well, the Mariners had to make a move for a bat." Now, perhaps upper management dictated to Zduriencik that he had to make some significant move for offense. That seems unlikely however and we can't assume they did. Even more figuratively, the team didn't have to make a move, that's just a silly way of phrasing it. If the intent behind that statement is actually, "I think trading a run allowed for a run scored is a net benefit to the Mariners at this point if only to alleviate media pressure," then that's a possibly interesting debate to have that avoids anchoring anything in absolutes, which stifles dialogue. Seriously, don't make absolutist declarations, especially when they are opinion-based. Those are uninteresting.
Similarly, some have mentioned that Yankee fans are upset about the trade as well and it's the sign of a balanced trade when both fan bases are upset. While that's a good notion, it relies on an assumption that the two collective fan bases are equally adept at analyzing baseball. Is that valid in this case? I don't know, but given the general fan and media coverage of Pineda compared to Ivan Nova, I happen to have a dim view of analysis stemming from Yankee players.
Judging the overall package itself, if asked to grade it on Jeff's 1-10 lasagna scale then I'm more in the four category than the five. I am less enamored with potential and prospects than many people seem to be. I prefer seeing players generate hype from their numbers than from scouting reports. Currently, Montero is more in scout hype than number hype territory and you frankly cannot find a bigger question than whether he will catch or not. By positional values, the difference between a catcher and a DH is 30 runs over a full season. Thirty flippin' runs! That's ginormous. It's a huge factor in what kind of player Montero ends up being.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | G | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | SO | HBP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 18 | Charleston | SALL | A | 132 | 569 | 171 | 34 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 37 | 83 | .326 | .376 | .491 | .868 | 6 |
| 2009 | 19 | 2 Teams | 2 Lgs | A+-AA | 92 | 379 | 117 | 25 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 28 | 47 | .337 | .389 | .562 | .951 | 2 |
| 2010 | 20 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | IL | AAA | 123 | 504 | 131 | 34 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 46 | 91 | .289 | .353 | .517 | .870 | 1 |
| 2011 | 21 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | IL | AAA | 109 | 463 | 121 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 36 | 98 | .288 | .348 | .467 | .814 | 4 |
Of course, there's a middle ground wherein Montero might be fine enough to catch half the time while his bat plays at DH the other half. That would also probably be satisfactory. Something like 60 starts at catcher and 100 starts at DH would result in a positional value equivalent to a corner outfielder. I would probably be content with an arrangement similar to that. It's mostly the possibility that Montero is nothing but a DH that concerns me defensively. I am comforted by seemingly every scout's opinion that Montero has a monster bat, the sort of talent unseen in Seattle for years.
Michael Pineda has worries and risk as well for sure. However, the worries should not originate from any imagined decline during 2011 as hitters adjusted to his two-pitch repertoire. As above, that didn't quite happen. However, Pineda is a young pitcher and those are risky assets, riskier than hitters, and pitchers tend to lose fastball velocity over time. Both players have significant talent and important questions attached to them, but at the time, and still today, I believe that Montero's future is currently murkier than Pineda's. I feel that their ceilings are roughly similar, but 2011 alleviated more of my concerns about Pineda than it did about Montero.
Now the team's scouting could be optimistic about Montero spending some time at catcher and believe in Noesi's reported velocity gain over the winter. We don't have access to their information so we should allow for a decently-sized margin of error when trying to judge a deal such as this. Additionally, having questions does not mean that Montero and/or Noesi (or Pineda and/or Campos) cannot ultimately answer them. The future isn't just hard to predict, it's impossible to predict. It's unknowable. It can unfold in countless ways but we will only experience one of them. That's a terrible formula for trade evaluation. All four players will now develop in ways that are different from in the timeline(s) where this trade doesn't occur.
The valid way to evaluate the move is by what we know and can reasonably now. We can re-evaluate if we eventually discover a greater insight into what the teams knew at the time, but I caution against using the future performance of the players to declare a winner or loser here. I'm slightly against it, but I won't disagree with someone who has more faith in Montero's bat or Noesi's arm than I liking the deal. I think it's perfectly reasonable to like the trade or not like the trade. It's anything in the love or hate range that I feel is probably an overreaction.
Either way, I think there might be too much negative emotion running amok still so here's some cute animals.
11 recs | 133 comments
If we were to assume, and only assume, that they were of equal value but one was a pitcher and one was a hittter...
how much does the one extra year of club control influence your like or dislike of the trade, if any?
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
Well it obviously can't make me dislike it.
It’s nice to have the extra year for sure, but not a huge deal to me.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
Is that a polar bear?
MilesC - January 14, 2012
I'm trying not to think about losing Pineda anymore
I’m trying to think about Ackley/Smoak/Montero for years to come. And Felix/Hultzen/Paxton/Walker.
Kyleo84 - January 14, 2012
This is the healthy position as of today.
Or at least I agree with it.
We all love Pineda (or should – the guy is awesome), but he is now gone (well, pending physical). If Ichiro bounces back to some degree we could have a pretty nice top 4. runs!
We have a lot of work to do to catch the Angels and Rangers, but our offense just got the appearance of something much more formidable.
BennyGStein - January 14, 2012
I'm more focused on SS Colt Brenson.
He’s 7 years old now, but WOW he’s going to be good for us in 2029.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
If he was in the Domincan Republic, we could have him signed already
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 14, 2012
You don't Big Wheel off the island.
JAH - January 14, 2012
I can't separate Pineda and Ackley
Mostly because my best Mariners memory from last year was sitting front-row to watch Ackley debut against Philly with…Pineda on the mound. Le sigh.
That said, we have gigaslugs of talent waiting in the wings, as you said. So hopefully it’s not all bad. Still, it hurts having to root for a Yankee now.
Rachmaninoff - January 14, 2012
Do you think there was concern over Pineda's inability to develop an effective third pitch?
It still seems odd to me that the Mariners dealt Pineda just because they wanted Montero.
zehavi - January 14, 2012
I don't think that was a concern.
But that’s my outsider opinion that means very little in the grand scheme of things. I think they just wanted that bat and knew they had a decent amount of pitching on the way.
BennyGStein - January 14, 2012
Yah, I would agree with that.
And it’s not just getting a bat. It’s getting a young bat that we can control for many years. It’s not like we have any high-ceiling bats in our system right now.
Kyleo84 - January 14, 2012
Yep - a cost effective impact bat for the future.
If Montero is the type of hitter people say he is/will be – i think we’ll probably all be happy.
I’d personally rather have a rotation of decent/good pitchers with one stud coupled with a strong offense, than a great 1-2 punch in the rotation and a lineup that can’t score. But that’s more of an emotional reaction to the past few years of Mariners baseball and may not be a very sound reaction.
BennyGStein - January 14, 2012
But will we have a rotation of decent/good pitchers?
I actually think this trade is fine, just looking at the players involved. But I wonder, as a practical matter, whether the non-Felix part of the rotation will be able to keep the team in games, especially early in the season? Are we comfortable with our rotation?
Swung On And Belted - January 15, 2012
Doesn't a trade like this need to be evaluated on more then a "WAR added vs. WAR lost"
Don’t we have to think about who replaces Pineda and figure out WAR ‘net’? Also, shouldn’t we look at who we would of had at DH, and the WAR difference there?
Anyway, thanks for the blog post, always informative and entertaining.
heychuck1 - January 14, 2012
A run saved is the same as a run scored but a run saved for the Rainers doesn't help the Mariners win baseball games.
The way people talk, you would think that there is no issue with a hypothetical team having it’s top 10 organizational assets all be starting pitchers.
Vegasexpat - January 14, 2012
Right, because that's realistic.
Matthew - January 14, 2012
No less realistic than using a league wide replacement level for individual teams.
Vegasexpat - January 14, 2012
Okay then, crazy pants
Matthew - January 14, 2012
The Mariners could sign a 6 WAR 2B tomorrow for 15 million a year but we won't see the benefit of that surplus value since he wouldn't produce enough over Ackley to be worth it
Agree or disagree?
It’s a deal that would look amazing for a random team, using league wide replacement level but for us that replacement level is higher than the league standard.
Vegasexpat - January 14, 2012
You don't know what replacement level means.
Patrick Stites - January 14, 2012
It is an amazing deal for any team
Players are not tied to a single position.
njd.aitken - January 14, 2012
Nor are they tied to a single team.
If the Mariners got an amazing deal on a 2B they could then trade Ackley for other assets.
mebpenguin - January 14, 2012
How would WAR get calculated under your idea?
Patrick Stites - January 14, 2012
Yankee fan here
I wanted to come here and wish you all luck with our boy Jesus, for many of us (myself included) we have been looking forward to seeing in the big leagues for a long time. It looks like it wasn’t meant to be for us, but I want to let you guys know your getting a special middle of the order bat.
I know many of you are upset to be losing a young stud like Pineda, but I will to cheer my ass off, y’all might not want to hear this but you guys have really helped the yanks solve a decade long problem, and I promise on behalf of all NYY fans that we’ll take good care of Pineda.
PS
Look out for Jesus for us and treat him well, we’ll be needing him back in 6 years haha
Yankees199 - January 14, 2012
You know,
there were a few Yankees fans around here yesterday, and they were all quite awesome. Thanks for being a bit of a prick and making us all look bad.
Jiri - January 14, 2012
Hmmm...
I didn’t take that as particularly prickish. That “PS” comment is… well… pretty much what I think most people assume of the Yankees anyhow.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
Eh, I think his last comment was tongue in cheek.
wazzu93 - January 14, 2012
From my experience with Yankee fans, I'd say this is not a good assumption
And I hope Pineda realizes his true calling is Australian Rules Football come March.
short - January 15, 2012
Only if he signs with the (Richmond, not Detroit) Tigers.
That would be super bad ass.
Aussie Mariner - January 15, 2012
it was tongue in cheek
you really need to fix that joke detector
Yankees199 - January 15, 2012
Given how extremely sick we as a fanbase are of hearing people complain that we haven't traded Felix to the Yanks yet,
it’s a joke that is simply not likely to go over well.
Matthew - January 15, 2012
There was nothing prickish about it. Even the PS is pretty funny.
Kenneth Arthur - January 14, 2012
so I'm a prick
for telling another fanbase how much the player they got in a trade meant to us, or hoping they chant " HHHEEEEYYYY Zeussssssssss" when he comes to plate and smacks a ball out of the park?
Maybe I’m a prick because I thankful to the Mariners for helping the NYY solve a problem that they haven’t been able to do since 2001, and promise to be a huge fan and cheer my ass off for a player these people held dear and not turn on him like a jackal.
OH and the ps was a joke
Yankees199 - January 15, 2012
It wasn't prickish at all
Thanks for the comment. Go Mariners!
P.S.
I hate the Yanks! That is a joke and a true statement. Enjoy Pineda, hopefully we will enjoy Jesus! Go M’s!
datboyeddiep - January 15, 2012
thanks I know we will he's a stud
Just please promise me you guys will come up with a better homerun call than “Jesus is Loose” (that wasn’t our announcers shining moment)
Yankees199 - January 15, 2012
You might not turn on him
But will that hold true for the Yankees fanbase in general? When his BABIP goes up to a more sustainable range? When his strand rate and HR/FB return to earth? When, say, the Red Sox sit on his fastball and manage to punish it? When he gives up a couple of brutal homers? Will the callers on WFAN not tear him to shreds? Will the Post not call for him to be sent down to Scranton to work on his changeup? Will you hold back the other jackals? Will you fight the good fight?
I suppose Pineda at least has the virtue of not being AJ Burnett. Being cheap sets the expectations way lower, and being really good certainly doesn’t hurt.
J0SER - January 15, 2012
His babip did go up
he was sitting at .290 in the latter half of the season, and that LOB% in the second half was ridiculously low for anyone even, if it had been Barry f’n Zito that number would still be extremely low. All other stats, pretty much showed that he was just as good if not slightly better (due to his increased GB%) as he was in the first half. So don’t worry
Yankees199 - January 15, 2012
It'll only be 5 years for us to get Pineda back
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 15, 2012 via mobile
On a one year incentive laden deal coming after shoulder surgery.
Mothy - January 15, 2012
PPS
Your a tool. The Yankees are like the kid in elementary school who always brought his expensive toys to recess thinking that it would make people like him. It doesn’t.
John Woody - January 15, 2012
"Your a tool"? Really?
CapSea - January 15, 2012
You don't own an "a tool"?
Craptastic-J - January 15, 2012
well your a towel
Yankees199 - January 15, 2012
Wanna get high?
datboyeddiep - January 15, 2012
Sorry man.
I read it all wrong. I’ll just get back to my toolbox then.
John Woody - January 15, 2012
PPS
The Yankees fans visiting here since the trade have acquitted themselves far better than you just did.
pdb - January 15, 2012
I am definitely coming around to the trade, my logic being thus:
It is true that many people (I being one of them) have thought for a while that Montero won’t be able to catch at all. And it is reasonable to think that even though the Yankees didn’t move him off of the position. After all, if they’re shopping him, it makes sense to try and convince other people he can stay at catcher. The Yankees would gain nothing and lose trade value by saying he couldn’t catch long-term or moving him off the position.
However, the Mariners made this trade, and apparently they’re going to try Montero behind the plate, at least to start out. Zduriencik, and the rest of the Mariners front office, are in all likelihood far more informed about baseball-related things, and are probably better at their jobs, than you or I would be. Since I think the trade looks like a loss on the Mariners’ end if Montero is strictly a DH, and I don’t think Jack Z. and Co. are in the business of losing trades, I trust their judgement that the return is better than what I had originally assumed (or I guess Pineda and Campos aren’t as good as I had thought). This says to me that they most likely feel that Montero can catch at least some of the time.
WhyGodWhy - January 14, 2012
As a trade clause, the Mariners should require that Olivo cannot talk to Montero
zehavi - January 14, 2012
Seriously though, it will be interesting to see what happens with Olivo.
I think we’ll probably keep him as well as Jaso just because we don’t know about Montero. Best case scenario for Jesus would probably be to catch 40-50 games this year while learning and improving. Then if he does prove himself to be a catcher he can split time with Jason in 2013 when Olivo’s contract is up.
Kyleo84 - January 14, 2012
I bet we keep all three through spring training and then there's always somebody looking for a catcher at the end of the spring if we can afford to deal one
Corco - January 14, 2012
If you think Montero can catch 40-50 games then either Jaso/Olivo can pick up 90-100
Meaning you’d have 32-12 games where that third catcher is used. That third catcher would have more value to the team if he could also play the corner outfield spots, which Jaso/Olivo cannot. If the team is going to use Montero at catcher then one of Jaso/Olivo becomes unnecessary and just clogs the bench. Jaso being the young, cheap, long term player in my mind means Olivo is expendable. It will be interesting to see what happens.
BaronVonBullshit - January 14, 2012
Yah, that's a good point
There was nothing special with me saying 40-50. Basically my thought process was that Montero probably isn’t ready to catch on a regular basis yet. So let him catch in some games while working to improve on the side, but still have Olivo/Jaso be the primary platoon. 40-50 might be too much though.
Kyleo84 - January 14, 2012
Catcher/corner outfielder?
Sounds like Chris Gimenez. Was that your point?
Aly Edge - January 14, 2012
Basically yeah, I mean he's really not that great but as a third catcher he's gotta be about as valuable as Olivo at a fraction the cost, right?
Plus the versatility he provides could be useful. Who knows what will happen, but at least there’s some excitement back in the offseason
BaronVonBullshit - January 14, 2012 via Android app
I could see that.
But the Mariners could also just as easily rotate Montero around with Carp at DH for a majority of those other games. Carp may not be your ideal left fielder, but he can stand there and look cute in tight pants. That has to stand for something.
Though I’ll admit the Chris Giminez factor does make more sense.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 14, 2012
That's impossible
for Carp to look cute
lokiforever - January 14, 2012
Lies.
When he hit that bomb off the hit it here cafe I think he looked pretty enough to snuggle.
Aussie Mariner - January 15, 2012
Also the two doubles(?) that gave us come from behind wins.
One was against the Angels! That one I remember for sure.
Aussie Mariner - January 15, 2012
Carp can platoon with Wells in LF
And with Montero at DH. There’s also the days you want to rest Smoak (who sure seems to get hurt fielding balls a lot), though I’m not certain who is the preferred sub at 1B (scouts don’t seem to think Montero is much of a potential 1B either).
The crucial thing for Montero behind the plate for the M’s, I would think, is not having him catch Felix. Felix stuff breaks hard enough that all catcher have trouble with it, but as our experiences with RoJo an MigOl have shown, bad catchers have it much, much worse. I don’t really like the idea of personal catchers, but in Montero’s case I think he’s an “anybody but Felix” guy.
J0SER - January 15, 2012
Problem there
is if your backup C is playing DH, you’re in kind of a bind if your starting C that day has to leave the game. Montero would have to catch and then you lose the DH.
Not the worst thing that could happen, but I can see them wanting to keep a 3rd C around just for that scenario. Gimenez would be nice with the ability to play corner OF.
appleshampoo - January 16, 2012
Right. Which is why the subject of Chris Gimenez came up.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 17, 2012
Olivo is also expendable because he is a bad hitter who happens to be a bat only player
njd.aitken - January 14, 2012
Matthew, (or anyone else...)
Watching games last year I didn’t get the perception that Pineda faded down the stretch. The perception I did pick up throughout the season was that Pineda hit a wall after about 5 innings. He’d blow guys away through five and then he’d start to get hit pretty hard all of a sudden and he rarely pitched the seventh.
Again, thats my perception, but I’d like to know where to go to look into it to see if its true. Can you help point me to a place where I can find Pineda’s numbers by inning? I think its obvious that pitchers would get worse as the game gets longer, but with Pineda, my perception was that the difference between his first five innings and subsequent innings was bigger than average.
zeeehjee - January 14, 2012
I think you'd be right...but I also think you could put a lot of pitchers in that category.
4.11 K/BB during innings 1-5.
1.31 K/BB during innings 6-9.
Here’s a link to some inning-by-inning stats:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=pinedmi01&year=&t=p#innng
Kyleo84 - January 14, 2012
Yeah...
…every next time through the order, hitters get better results against the starting pitcher.
ubelmann - January 15, 2012
I'm not buying that anything was dictated to Zduriencik about trading Pineda for a some type of hitter.
To me, it’s really just a natural progression to trade from the Mariners’ strength which is obviously pitching. Pitching is still going to be the strength moving forward, and I would like for the Mariners to keep adding to it. When the 2012 draft rolls around they’ll have the chance to select Kevin Gausman(who was actually a Mariner in the Cape Cod League) or maybe even Mark Appel if he falls with the #3 pick. Both them could be fast tracked similar to the way Hultzen is being handled.
I think everyone would’ve been more comfortable with a player who has a secure position; however, Montero will have to first play himself out of catcher to warrant a position change to 1B or DH. This would still leave room open for Fielder if the FO feels the need to open the coffers for him. If I were to listen to my gut, which is currently full of Indian food and chardonnay, I’d say Texas won’t sign Darvish and instead will make a push to sign Fielder to compensate.
Furthermore, it makes me wonder if one were to read the tea leaves about the rumors that surfaced a week or so ago about the M’s and Toronto talking about a Felix deal weren’t actually the two sides discussing a Pineda deal. I know I would’ve preferred a Pineda plus package for Lawrie and d’Arnaud, but it wasn’t meant to be. Alas, that didn’t happen, and what did happen was something that should work out for both sides.
junglist215 - January 14, 2012
Who says he's changing positions to 1B or DH?
He turned 22 a month ago! He could easily see time at LF, RF or 3B before he gets put at 1B or DH if his defense isn’t adequate at C. And he’s played 350 games as a Catcher, so I’m hoping he can at least catch a pitch. That’s all we really need anyway – he can’t be worse than Olivo or Jaso.
As for draft – Zunino’s stats are jaw-dropping amazing. Park and schedule adjusted OPS has him as 4th best Div. 1 hitter behind 3 first round picks CJ Cron, Kolten Wong, and Mikie Mahtook. And he was a sophomore. And a Catcher.
Appel’s NCAA stats have been disappointing, as have Gausman’s. Barring a Hultzen-esque breakout, I can’t see us going with those two at the #3.
valencia - January 14, 2012
Saying you'd expect Montero to play 3B before he tries 1B made me want to just ignore everything else you had to say,
but I didn’t. Instead I got a laugh out the Hultzen breakout comment. He’s been broken out since high school, and the same goes for Gausman. The only difference is now Gausman touches 100 instead of touching 95 back in high school. For the record, a pitcher who holds opposing batter to a .215 BAA isn’t really disappointing.
junglist215 - January 14, 2012
Appel's K/9 7.05. Gausman's K/9 8.63.
Appel’s BAA was .277. They don’t even have elite BB/9s, running 2.3s. Tools only get you so far. If these guys can’t hit the 12-13 K/9 Bauer and Hultzen were hitting, I’d look for something else. Guys who can’t even strike out college hitters don’t impress me much, even if they “touch” 100.
But I guess if Gerrit Cole can go 1-1 with a 9.37 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9 because he can touch 100, so can these guys. But something tells me Z and his team care about more than pure velo.
And hey – if Wil Myers can learn to play RF in 75 games, why not Montero?
valencia - January 14, 2012
I don't understand why everyone thinks he'd go straight to DH either.
If he’s athletic enough to be even a poor catcher then he’s definitely worth a look at 3B or the corner outfield spots.
mebpenguin - January 15, 2012
Um...really?????
I can think of several reasons why not (like, starting with speed…..)
rtang - January 15, 2012
I'll defer to those who have actually seen him play.
I’m just thinking that catcher and DH are at extreme ends of the defensive spectrum. You’d think there might be attempted stops along the way before you go from one end to the other.
mebpenguin - January 15, 2012
It's not a sliding scale of athletic traits though.
What’s needed at catcher doesn’t necessary translate to any other position.
Matthew - January 15, 2012
Just to add on....
…the defensive spectrum measures defensive difficulty. It doesn’t measure specific athletic traits.. 2B and 3B are close in defensive difficulty, but they demand different things, and, as we’ve seen, you can’t necessarily swap players between the two positions indiscriminately.
rtang - January 15, 2012
Graham and I drafted something along that line
a long time ago and did nothing with it:
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/8/9/590377/exploring-the-defensive-sp
Matthew - January 15, 2012
Based on that it seems the skillset for 3B and catcher are very similar.
mebpenguin - January 15, 2012
Not many catchers become good
3B without considerable early experience there, and a poor catcher with slow feet (if that’s the case with Montero) would not be a good candidate.
xmet - January 16, 2012
At least this is fact (per the physicals) rather than the endless speculation.
But, as Jeff points out, it leads to yet more speculation. I would add to Jeff’s admonitions that a year from now, please, don’t start in on the I told you so’s. Like: I told you Pineda/Montero was going to be great/suck, and look, here’s my post to prove it. Egad, I’m baseball smart.
Regardless of what lasagna category the trade falls into, it will be tasty to anticipate the young core of potentially good hitters. The possibility that the Mariners may have a middle-order bat is so much better than the reality of a 7-8 guy hitting cleanup.
I’m sorry to see Pineda go, but I relish (9 on the 1-10 relish scale) the idea of a Mariners team that can actually hit.
PackBob - January 14, 2012
I apologize that this isn't necessarily on topic..
I found it funny, or at least amusing, last night when many of the national writers remarked that they were “stunned” or “couldn’t believe” that Brian Cashman would deal with Jack Zduriencik after the Cliff Lee fiasco. These are the same guys who have been feeding us “Yankees inquire about Felix” stories steadily for years.
I like the trade. Small sample size or not, you can either hit the ball the opposite way with power or you can’t. And Montero can. Can he do it consistently, maintain a high contact rate and learn to block a pitch? I don’t know. But I enjoy the simple things in life. I’m going to enjoy this trade because I feel like it. I have enjoyed watching videos of Hector Noesi taking a line drive off his ribs, and I’ve enjoyed reading just about every scouting report on these two guys that exists on the internet. Life’s too short not to allow yourself the freedom of ignorance now and again.
circa81 - January 14, 2012
He can block pitches as well as any of our "catchers"
and his contact rate has been great in the minors.
The main problem scouts had with him was “he’s too big” and his CS% sucks. I can live with that. Just don’t let him play catcher against the Angels or Rangers.
valencia - January 14, 2012
I had a six hour stretch, where all I knew about the trade was Pineda for Montero. Couldn't get to a tv or computer.
During that six hours I was stoked, I thought it seemed like a really reasonable trade. Since reading more, I’m still liking it, though a little more nervous.
I guess I wasn’t as attached to Pineda as most the fanbase, but I’m still stoked to have Montero in our lineup, DH or not.
BigR - January 14, 2012
As am I
We needed a big bat, this guy may supply that for us. Having Smoak, Ackley, and Montero looks good. We’ll see how it plays out. I liked Pineda but he is not Felix. If the M’s trade Felix I’d surely die.
datboyeddiep - January 15, 2012
Plus Carp/Wells!
There’s a productive hitter in there somewhere!
BigR - January 15, 2012
Oooohhhhh I hope so
Our life depends on it!
datboyeddiep - January 15, 2012
I don't know why, but I don't have the same visceral punch-in-the-stomach reaction of the Pauley/Fister trade.
GoDogGo - January 14, 2012
ITS SO FLUFFY!
It’s so fluffy I’m going to die!
Henry Valz - January 14, 2012
speaking of fluffy
local cuteness personified.
msb - January 14, 2012
He's not fat, he's fluffy!
EequalsMc2 - January 14, 2012
Cutest by far are those bunnies lying on their backs
Why would you lie with your little feet straight up in the air? Is that really comfortable for you, silly bunnies?
Swung On And Belted - January 15, 2012
I have a Norfolk Terrier puppy who sleeps on his back more than half of the time.
I can’t imagine it’s even remotely comfortable, but it’s extraordinarily adorable.
flashbeak - January 15, 2012
Pics or it didn't happen.
katal - January 15, 2012
Holy shit I'm excited for Montero.
Having him and Ackley for the next five years is going to be awesome.
BigR - January 15, 2012
I want to go buy a Montero jersey.
He’s going to be a fucking beast.
BigR - January 15, 2012
I have not pulled the trigger on a jersey yet, and now I'm torn between:
Ackley, Smoak, and Montero. Trayvon Robinson is also kind of on the list.
InSpokane - January 15, 2012
One of these things
is really, REALLY not like the others.
CarpCarter - January 15, 2012
I like Trayvon.
InSpokane - January 15, 2012
Hopefully he can become the next Willy.
w00tah - January 15, 2012
Bloomquist?
InSpokane - January 15, 2012
Wonka
pdb - January 15, 2012
Only if he's the Gene Wilder, Wonka and he hands out Hot Ice Creams for Cold Days.
InSpokane - January 15, 2012
Does this scenario also give us Oompa Loompa bat boys?
Patrick Stites - January 15, 2012
It doopity do.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 15, 2012
I do too- I think he could be a lot of fun to watch
Corco - January 15, 2012
.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
Six!
Matthew - January 15, 2012
Both!?
I was thinking five on Ackley for some reason.
WEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!
BigR - January 15, 2012
Both. Ackley showed up in June.
Matthew - January 15, 2012
Wee!
InSpokane - January 15, 2012
Jim Bowden has this to say on the twitter thingy:
@JimBowdenESPNxm
Brian Cashman told me last night that Michael Pineda better improve the change-up & develop into a #1 starter or he will have made a mistake
DON’T PUT THAT KIND OF PRESSURE ON MICHAEL!!! Not quite sure why I feel so defensive of Pineda, but I just feel bad for the guy getting that kind of pressure in New York.
Also, that’s kind of a douchy thing to say. And he’s wrong. Pineda being a good #2 starter is absolutely worth a good hitting DH… I could see his statement as truth if Montero can stick it as a full time Catcher, but I think most of us agree that that is highly unlikely.
Kevman22 - January 15, 2012
Jim Bowden has made a second career of finding douchey things to say
Chris_FB - January 15, 2012 via mobile
If you care what Jim Bowden thinks, you shouldn't.
abender20 - January 15, 2012
Fortunately, one of the questions for Montero is answer is "Dingers?"
abender20 - January 15, 2012
Who's there?
Kermit. - January 15, 2012
We've been stuck on this problem for a while :(
JY - January 15, 2012
He will answer the question with an emphatic "Dingers!"
abender20 - January 15, 2012
While I agree with you
that judging the quality of this trade should be done with what we know now, that’s only really from a sabermetric, baseball research, point of view.
After the trade is done, all that matters will be their performances going forward. Pineda’s arm could fall off in spring training, or Montero could get kidnapped in Venezuela. While those things wouldn’t change if this was a good trade or not, it would certainly change the future of the club, and that’s what most of the fanbase cares about.
doublemazaa - January 15, 2012
"Montero could get kidnappedin Venezuela"
Really?
EequalsMc2 - January 15, 2012
*kidnapped
EequalsMc2 - January 15, 2012
It has happened before.
Mariner John - January 15, 2012
Wilson Ramos
says yes.
xmet - January 15, 2012
Anything could happen, man. You don't know. We could all die tomorrow. You just. Don't . Know. Man.
/bong hit
Chris_FB - January 15, 2012
I wonder if there is a way to project possible performance against specific teams
I’d love it if Montero ended up owning e.g. CJ Wilson specifically and the Angels rotation in general. At some point, in addition to looking at making a better team overall, we need to see how the team stacks up against the Rangers and Angels. I have been assuming the M’s finish third next year and that .500 would be nice, but it would be a pleasant surprise to have the Mariners be as much of a pain in the ass to the Angels as say the Angels were to the Ms a few years ago. Y’know, that one team that just has their number. I’m rambling, sorry…
Chris_FB - January 15, 2012
Pujols will never not hit a homerun off of Vargas.
BigR - January 15, 2012
Well, yes, and Felix will never not strike out Torii Hunter, but...
I’m just looking for something reasonably predictive (as handy as WAR, but can’t be WAR, obviously) that could get as close as possible to quantifying strength-of-division, or strength-of-schedule overall.
Or an excuse for a corny sign like “Who needs Albert when you’ve got Jesus”.
Chris_FB - January 15, 2012
I was really excited in the abstract, having not seen enough video of either New Mariner but based on their stats liking them a lot...
I just watched Montero’s video and… gawd his swing is ugly. I mean, not bad, but it’s the anti-Olerud. Super strong wrists, clearly, and not too long at all, which is great, but man… that’s not a swing you teach a kid who can’t curl that weight on the string a hundred times.
tsunamijesus - January 15, 2012
Like the look of Noesi though.
Really projectable. Easy delivery, good life and command. I’m very happy to have him penciled in to eat 200 innings next year.
tsunamijesus - January 15, 2012
As Dave said...
…it’s in the same class as Doug Fister.
Those have value for a playoff team.
rtang - January 15, 2012
200 innings seems a bit high
He only threw 80 last year, split across AAA and the Yankees. He did throw 160 in 2010 (split across three levels) so even if you throw out last year, you’d only want to jack him up by another 30 or so, which is still a couple of games shy of 200. If you don’t throw out last year, you’re looking at more like 120 IP. I’d guess the final number is somewhere in the middle, but I don’t think it’s 200.
J0SER - January 15, 2012
Very fair assessment.
I was caught up in watching his mechanics and pitching style and thought “ooo innings eater.” Maybe I can assume he’ll be a 200+ guy in a couple years and for perpetuity.
tsunamijesus - January 16, 2012
It is ugly, but it's really compact for how big of a guy it is.
It makes sense that it works.
BigR - January 15, 2012
As long as he can hit consistently
I don’t care if it looks like Peguero.
Aussie Mariner - January 16, 2012
Peguero's actually got a pretty swing
It’s just not very practical. Baseball swings are one of those unique things about sports in that they can look beautiful but if you don’t apply it well, who cares? Like a pitcher who throws 100mph without command or movement or a goalie who can dive and do the splits and move beautifully but has poor reflexes or eyesight. Peguero just exudes strength and fluidity to me. I don’t look at him the same way I do Pujols or Edgar but it’s still promising. Basically the opposite of Montero. It looks good but is bad vs. it looks bad but is good
tsunamijesus - January 16, 2012
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