A lot more in favor so far than I would have expected.
For me, it’s all about transferring volatile value from a pitcher to a more sure bet in the position player.
It’s a simplistic view, but it’s the one I’m going with.
I really fought to judge this solely on what we know right now, and put no conditionals on it, hence "Like this trade"
Even though I want to know all sorts of things now now now about Montero’s catching ability and durability, Pineda’s durability and development, how the M’s rotation will do against the Angels and Rangers offenses without Pineda, how Ackley-Smoak-Montero will do against the aces of the Angels and Rangers staffs, and so on.
A sick sense of cosmic timing dictates that just as we rationalize our opinions on this trade, Z comes out tomorrow morning with “I’ll just leave this here…” and has us all have another meLLtdown about a Fielder signing or a surprise 4-way trade for a premiere 3b or somedamnthing.
This was his first HR to the pull side of the year I believe.
He had gone the other way on two or three others, plus shot most of his hits the other way since being called and Weaver tried to sneak one inside. He really showed a nice ability to look outside yet still adjust and pull the inside pitch with power. No doubt about it his bat is special.
We traded from an area of strength to fill a weakness. I don’t ‘love it’ because Montero isn’t a sure thing positionally. I am confident about his bat, though.
One one hand I am still just really sad about losing Pineda, the pitcher and the guy. On the other hand I’m starting to get hopeful about Montero and Noesi’s potential. Right now they kind of cancel each other out to make me feel neutral. Time will tell.
not because you got the definition wrong, but because most people get it wrong, because it’s a word that seems like it means something that it doesn’t. it’s a deceitful word. fuck you, nonplussed.
If he can catch 40-80 games a year that adds a ton of value for him. Spend the rest of the time at DH to keep him healthy and if his bat develops like everyone thinks it will we could have a star on our hands.
After Dave's write up on Noesi I think I like this trade a lot more. If he can turn into a Scott Baker or hell, Dan Haren, I think this trade turns out into a major boon
As A Yankee fan I think Dan Haren is a little out of reach for Noesi.
But I could see him being a Scott Baker or a little better easily. I’m not as high on the kid as some Yankee fans are but he is a solid pitcher who showed a lot of poise for a young pitcher making his first go through the major leagues.
Reports out of Winter ball were that his velocity had increased substantially since the regular season ended, into the mid 90’s touching as high as 97. If he can maintain an uptick in velocity then I would have to completely reevaluate his upside. But I maintained a wait and see approach with it since it was no more than reports.
Team needs offense badly, we have a surplus of pitching, yadda yadda yadda. I know, but we had a group of Great pitchers/pitching prospects under the age of 26. (Felix, Pineda, hultzen, walker, paxton, and campos) Now 2 of those are gone and all we got was another 1b/DH. Now, I know he’s a great player, but I dunno, I think it’s harder to find a Pineda than it is to find a Montero. Including Campos puts this trade over the top for me, unless Noesi turns out to be great I don’t like giving up that much. Pineda for Montero straight up would have been hard enough to stomach.
But then again, I think Pineda/Campos carry considerably more risk than Montero and Noesi. Pineda has been hurt before, only has 2 pitches, and is going to a ballpark that loooooves left handed hitters. I think he’ll be fine, but you never know, lefties could eat him alive there w/o a changeup. And he has already been injured, so theres that. Also, Campos is only 19, so yeah there’s a ton of risk there.
I think I would give it a 4/10 on the lasagna scale. Like, the lasagna was really good, but now its like 2 days old and you’re reheating it.
Montero is going to drive you crazy behind the plate.
His enormous body makes it somewhat painful to watch him behind the plate. He has a cannon for an arm and made some spectacular throws in his short stent, but at times he isn’t able to make a good throw because of his size. He’s going to be a passed ball and wild pitch nightmare, but his ability to actually catch the ball isn’t that bad. He isn’t a catcher who is going to frame pitches all that well, but the glove isn’t going to move a ton from the spot he catches the ball. Strong hands and wrists is the way I would put it.
He’s going to be slow rounding bases. Outfield and 3rd are completely out of the question with his athletic ability, or lack thereof. Catcher, First, or DH seems to be the only options for him at this point.
It’s not Montero’s size that bugs me. Matt Weiters is also 6’5"/230. The best defensive catcher the Mariners have ever known (Dan Wilson) was listed 6’3"/215. Catchers tend to be a little bit bigger than the more spry middle infielders.
If Montero’s bumbling can be coached out of him, then awesome. Problem is after these years in the Yankees’ system, people are still iffy on him. Which tells me he’s just not athletically capable enough to be a good catcher – not because of his size, but because he’s just bad.
He just looks bigger than those guys though. Not in height but in pure girth
I know there are bigger catchers than him but none of them look bigger in the crouch. Weiters is a taller catcher than Montero but he doesn’t look it in the crouch. Same with Mauer, even though you know he’s bigger it just doesn’t look that way in catchers gear.
I wouldn’t describe it as “bumbling” so much as just being inflexible. When in the crouch he has a hard time looking athletic and his size really comes into play. He just looks like he’s built like a linebacker not a catcher.
I guess it’s just because of the inflexibility that his size sticks out so much. I will say Jose Molina was with the Yankees for 3 years and started an almost entire season one year and he never looked as big behind the plate as Jesus. Compared to Montero Molina was a graceful gazelle. Jose was really a joy to watch behind the plate.
I think I felt that way going in, but lefties didn't really hurt him all that much last year.
He still struck out 7.7 per 9, and walked 2.6 per 9. Both of those rates are within a half-percentage of Jered Weaver (7.6, 2.5). Jered Weaver is pretty good. Weaver’s great 2011 seems driven by his high strand rate and low HR/FB, but I think the point stands.
It’s numbers like that which scare me that we got taken on this deal.
It's probably because he was amazing in that one season
He showed that he can be successful even if a third pitch never develops. His ceiling if is change does improve is that of Cy Young contender and it’s a very reachable ceiling, though Montero has a ceiling that’s nearly as high too.
Velocity faded a bit down the stretch, has been injury prone in his career
third pitch showed minimal development, one less year of team control, still a pitcher?
I mean it’s not like I’m thrilled that Pineda is leaving, but this seems like a reasonable sell high to me, even if I wish we had gotten a bit more in return
I'm excited to see Montero behind the plate. In the few videos I've been able to find he looks alright
Glove hardly moves, he keeps his butt up off his heels. Just a couple of videos and a handful of pitches but it looks better than what I’m reading. I’ve been pretty wary of public scouting reports for a long time, probably before Valle. Sometimes you have to wonder what they were looking at, like Rob Johnson.
Where does this "Michael Pineda is injury prone" come from?
I’ve seen this a zajillion times here (and other places), and I don’t even know where it comes from. From anything I’ve seen or heard, he’s had one injury in his 6 year pro career. One injury that wasn’t serious and seems to be well back in the rear-view mirror.
It would be one thing if it was a serious injury that required surgery and put his future career in jeapordy, or a chronic injury that has popped up a few times, or a series of this-or-thats that have plagued him throughout his career. He’s had one injury that kept him out for a while, but other than that, everything’s been golden.
Could we just stop referring to Michael Pineda as an injury-prone pitcher? It doesn’t at all seem to be in line with his career to this point.
What we got was nice, but the loss of Campos – even with all the young pitching talent we still have – hurts. I feel we needed either a better return or given up someone “lesser” than Campos… But still, a potential #4-#5 pitcher who’s major league ready and a 22 year old with such potential – rather he is a catcher, 1B, or DH for most of the future – is still very nice.
What I’m digging is if Smoak and Montero can come close to being what they could be – .280-.300 hitters with 30-35 HR manning 1B/C or 1B/DH, plus Ackley will really be quite a killer punch in our lineup.
With our pitching depth, I feel this is a move that we could justify.
Yeah, losing Pineda and his future definitely sucks, but if Montero’s bat can be what some believe it’ll be, and I know it’s a big if, then it’s definitely worth it to me.
I’m just concerned about him being thrown right into the middle of the lineup, especially at Dave Niehaus Field.
The M’s managed to drastically changed the structure of their team by changing pitching into hitting, and didn’t pay a premium to do so. They lost no value in the trade, and perhaps created value for themselves if having a more balanced team is considered to be generally better than an unbalanced team (all pitching, no hitting)
For example, the heithcliff slocumb and joseI cruz trades. At that time, there was tremendous pressure on the team to add pitching, particularly relief pitching. Just a few days prior to one of those deals, I remember they blew a lead of at least 6 runs and lost to the Red Sox on a Mo Vaughn grand slam. They almost immediately reacted by paying way too much for some relievers.
I get why some people like Campos, but man, I just can’t get myself to care. It’s not right because nothing is ever a sure thing, but having Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker is comforting.
Pineda is awesome. In my mind, he’s still a Mariner, and probably will be until Opening Day. I’m just weirded out by the fact that we now have Smoak and Montero. I read Dave’s piece on Noesi, but I’m going to wait and see on him.
My favorite quote from that article that Grant Brisbee did after the trade deadline
Theo Epstein: C’mon, Ned. Do it.
Ned Colletti: Geez, I don’t know. I really don’t need to even be trading right now.
Theo Epstein: C’mmmmmon. Neddie. Ned Ned Ned. C’mon.
Ned Colletti: Oh, boy. Oh, man. I’m not trading away guys, I’m not trading for guys. I should just sit this one out. I don’t need to get in the middle of this.
Theo Epstein: Dude, Ned. C’mon. Just do it. Give me the young outfielder, and you’ll get a young catcher. He calls a good game or something.
Ned Colletti: Oh, boy. I’m not sure about this.
Theo Epstein: Ned. Ned. Do me a solid. For Theo. C’mon. Ned.
I’m still not sure about the upside or how he compares to Campos in absolute value, but one advantage of getting a major league ready middle- to back of rotation guy is that he may prevent us from rushing any of Hultzen, Paxton, Walker.
The reasonable upside for Noesi is a 4-5 starter, though some have gone as far as a number 3.
If he truly has gained as much velocity as we’ve heard in Winter ball then he may truly have the upside of a number 3. However until I see that velocity confirmed state side I won’t believe it.
I’m not a knee-jerk reaction kind of person, but I felt great about what we had in Pineda, and I am not entirely certain of what we have in Montero. I will say that I have certainly gotten closer to neutrality as the trade gets further away.
At first, I was just irrationally upset because I became a huge fan of Pineda. After thinking about it, though, I just don’t see where we were going to get a major bat during this FA period without otherwise overpaying for it. I sure as hell don’t want anything to do with Prince Fielder. This was the least risky way to get an ostensibly major-league ready big bat considering:
a) the stockpile of starting pitching in the minors
b) the payroll flexibility the Ms still have after getting that major bat.
If Montero has the power to hit to the opposite field and his contact rate is okay, I will fully accept this as a move where Pineda just didn’t have the value to the Ms that Montero has.
I think this deal slightly favors the Yankees because they need fewer breaks to make this deal pay off.
On the other hand, while I was never a big fan of the hoopla surrounding Jesus Montero, I am intrigued at what he brings to the table now that he’s in the Mariners organizaiton. In addition, Hector Noesi is another interesting option for the rotation.
I do find myself hoping that Montero can be a passable catcher in the least going forward. Despite the apparent risk, I’m leaning towards liking this deal.
Even though the deal slightly favors the Yankees...
…knowing we have Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker with #2 potential coming up either this year or next (maybe not Walker), and combine that with the incredible desire for a masher since Edgar left us, I actually love the trade.
I like the basic idea of trading pitching for hitting, but all the players involved have so little major league experience that it is hard to really decide how I feel about it since I don’t have enough information to decide how good Montero will be. I think this would be an interesting question to ask again at the all-star break.
They just don’t sell it in the US anymore. (In some markets it has different names, too: Pajero or Shogun). It remains quite popular worldwide. (Back in the 90s it was so often the “wife’s car” for ex-pats in Dubai that those ladies of the country club class were called “Pajero Janes”)
For me, a lot hinges on where the Mariners plan to play Montero. If they intend to keep him at catcher and he ends up not being a complete disaster, then I can see this trade moving into the “strong like” category.
I don't like it much, but last night I had a series of Ackley, Smoak, Montero dreams that kept on waking me up with their sheer awesomeness.
So I could see myself coming around on it over time. But right now it feels like we gave up more than we got, and with how desperate the Yankees were for pitching I don’t think that should have happened.
I think it was fair value on both sides. We accepted more risk in Montero, so we gave risk back in Campos. We accepted more upside in Montero, so we gave more upside back in Campos.
Actually since the Yankees are in a much better position to compete for a championship, and they have the expectations to do so
I think the pressure on them to make this move was greater than that on our side. In Montero we accepted risk in both his bat- which he hasn’t proved can play at the big league level, and in his glove- whether or not he can stick at catcher. And if he can’t stick at catcher…
Now you’ve got me feeling worse about the trade again.
By all accounts, it seems a fair trade. Both players have potential, both have questions, etc. And yes, the Mariners need hitting and the Yankees need pitching, but the Yankees need pitching in 2012 much more than the Mariners need hitting in 2012. I feel Z should have waited. Maybe Spring Training rolls around and the Yankees realize that Garcia doesn’t have another year left in him, AJ is still AJ, and Phil Hughes is still not Phil Hughes, and they get desperate. Or maybe July rolls around and Montero is still rotting in AAA, or he’s been playing catcher and the Mariners have more to evaluate him on. Unless Z & co were legitimately worried that Pineda’s stock would fall for whatever reasons, I think they should have waited.
I think Montero is the less risky play and Pineda has more upside.
I fully believe Montero will never stick at catcher long term. Many of my fellow Yankee fans disagree with me, but most of them are kind of dumb haha, or at the very least completely irrational about all prospects Jesus most of all. However I think his bat will be All-Star caliber for years to come. I see him a lot like a Robinson Cano with more power but more K’s and less BB’s.
I believe Pineda’s upside to be roughly the same as CC Sabathia, they seem like very similar pitchers as when CC was young. Correct me if someone disagrees with this one. But the injury risk is much higher with any pitcher as opposed to a DH.
This is why I was pretty shocked we got Campos in the deal simply for Noesi. If the Mariners were competing for a title this year I would understand this part of it more, but as is I thought it was a little much.
as much as I love the idea of “holy shit Jesus Montero is anchoring our lineup,” I can’t help but shake the Jose Vidro thought of “where will he play!?”
For me, without a definite position, Montero’s upside is a bit limited. Being a DH just massacres his value
I agree with this. This is the reason I have been open to the idea of trading him while most Yankee fans weren't
At the end of the day I don’t think he’s a catcher, but you guys have more flexibility in your infield than we do. If you could suffer through 40+ games at catcher, mix in some time at 1B, and give him the rest of the year at DH he would still see enough time in the field to be more valuable than just a DH.
I do believe he has to stick at catcher in some degree for this trade to make sense from a Mariner perspective, simply because I love Pineda’s upside so much. But even if he is just a DH he’s going to improve your offense by a ton. So that’s a plus in whatever way you get it.
How long has Jesus been a catcher? Since he was 4? I mean, like he’s been working on this his whole life and truth be told, he’s just too large? Like, he’ll never get it?
Or another way to put it, how many current catchers weren’t very good at 22 and then we’re serviceable-to-good by the time they were 25? Are we putting it at less than a 20% chance that Montero can catch 100 games or is it more like 5%?
I’ve been following minor leagues for 2-3 years and so I’ve read a lot on Montero. It seems like he’s better now than he was 2 years ago, but still a lot of people saying “He’d be one of the worst catchers in the majors” at which point, it would seem more like 5% that he’ll ever improve.
I'm just going off what I've seen of him when he got behind the plate.
Which I’ll admit isn’t as much as I would like. I watched every inning he caught in spring training, the few times he put the gear on last season, some video online, and a small amount of Scranton game footage. However to me he seems like he is just too big.
He was signed at 17 as a catcher and as far as I know he has never played another position in the minor leagues. He seems to be dedicated to working on catching, he has had a couple of discipline issues, though none of them seem to be lack of effort in the catching department.
His biggest problem behind the plate that I’ve seen is blocking balls. Anything in the dirt has a high probability of getting past him, or at the very least becoming an adventure. He’s simply so big and slow it’s hard for him to block balls and he leaves a giant hole in between his legs the glove doesn’t always cover. I saw multiple balls go in between his legs and to the back stop last year most catchers would’ve blocked no problem. That’s a size and flexibility issue, one I’m not sure how you fix.
He receives the ball decent, though he isn’t the best at framing. He also has an absolute cannon for an arm, though he sometimes has a hard time getting out of the crouch to make the throw to 2nd. In the minors they worked with him on simply leaning forward to make the throw instead of popping up to do so. The plus side is he has the arm to make that kind of throw, the down side being he has to make that kind of throw because of his athletic ability.
Thanks, that helps put a lot of his issues into perspective and why I can understand some people saying he'll never make it as a full-time catcher.
Honestly, if someone posed to me the hypothetical, “Would you trade Michael Pineda for the best DH in the AL?” I would say yes. Not to put that kind of pressure on Montero, but if he just turns into an “All-Star” DH, then yes, I would have still made the deal. That’s just me though… I’m probably overreacting because I’m sick of losing hope when the M’s give up 4 runs.
His bat is signifigant. The only problem I have with him is the lack of walks.
He never controlled the strike zone the way I was hoping in the minor leagues. I’d almost want to compare him to David Ortiz with the bat but I don’t believe he has the 40 HR potential David showed from time to time, and I don’t believe he will post the consistently high OBP David.
I’m not sure I would’ve traded Pineda for Montero, but our two teams are really in very opposite positions. I’ve known giant offensive production for years, but top flight young pitching has rarely come along. If I had the kind of minor league pitching depth the Mariners had and the lack of offense over the past years I might feel differently about it. One things for sure Ackley, Montero, and Smoak could be a deadly trio in the lineup. Especially when you consider you can mix and match anyway you want with a lefty, righty, and switch hitter.
That's the funny thing about Montero's plate discipline...
I see people throw around the “Well, if he hits .300/.400/.500” triple slash, and those are high expectations of a .400 OBP for Montero. But, you know, he’s so young that it’s not an uncommon issue for a young guy to be impatient. He KNOWS that he can hit the ball a mile, so he wants to swing it… when he learns that he’s a threat that pitchers will pitch around, I trust (hope) that he’ll become a patient power hitter.
Yeah logic and Montero projections don't always go hand in hand
The Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Martinez comparisons have actually gotten really old after these past few years. I’ve actually had otther Yankee fans get mad at me for saying is more like Carlos Lee than those two.
Certainly there is a possibility his discipline does a massive uptick and he becomes a .380-.400 OBP guy. But I’ve been hoping the same of Cano since he came up. For some reason he just hasn’t understood taking walks is a good thing. I know Kevin Long has pulled his hair out trying to get him to understand what he could be with a little more patients. We thought he figured it out in 2010 with his 8.2% BB rate, but he fell right back down to 5.6% this past season. Oh well he’s still a great hitter, just not the MVP he could be with a little more patience.
The way I'm looking at it, both Montero and Pineda have one pretty serious question about them
Montero’s ability to handle any time behind the plate or move to another defensive position that he might be good at, while Pineda lacks a true third pitch.
As much as I hate evaluating a trade in hindsight, this one almost has to be evaluated that way – if Montero can’t play any defense and Pineda develops his change, it looks awful for Seattle; likewise, if Pineda never develops a change and struggles with lefties, especially in Yankee Stadium and Montero can be like -7.5 runs positional instead of -17.5, it’s a huge win for the Mariners.
I’m not wildly concerned with Noesi for Campos, which seems like a pretty obvious upside vs. readiness swap.
For what it’s worth I hope it works out for both teams. The Granderson trade has seemed to do big things for all three teams involved, I don’t see any reason this can’t do the same. It’s one of the plus sides to two teams trading to early 20 something prospects for each other, hopefully neither team loses and both win.
I’ll be rooting for Montero, as long as he isn’t facing the Yankees.
I haven’t heard anyone talk about the Venezuela side. Maybe because it doesn’t exist or isn’t important. Anyone know if Felix (or Guti or other Ven guys) has any friendship with Montero or has played with him? Has Felix said anything about the trade yet? Anyways, welcome to the Ms Montero and Noesi.
My immediate reaction was that I really didn’t like the Noesi/Campos part of the deal, thinking it superfluous with the potential to hit big for the Yankees. I still don’t care much for that part of the deal – or for Noesi for that matter – but I realize that’s purely subjective: Noesi’s recent scouting reports are much better than his past ones and Campos was, realistically, a high-risk player that was probably this team’s fourth-best pitching prospect. I’m slowly coming around.
I actually liked the Pineda/Montero swap from the get-go but, after reading a lot of informed comments here and abroad, I’m starting to cool on that part of the deal. So I end up neutral.
Can someone tell me if Pineda throws a change or a split?
I watched a few of Pineda’s games last year because young power arms interest me when they get called up. However when I watched I couldn’t tell if he was using a change or split grip the few times I saw him throw something other than a slider or fastball.
I know fangraphs is pretty reliable on pitch identification but I don’t trust their change/spit differential anymore because of Lincecum. I don’t care what anyone wants to call it he throws a split. his index and middle finger are clearly spread a top the ball.
But not a true backspin heavy split because it still sits in the low 90’s on velocity. He will kind of mix that in with his fastball just to keep guys guessing on it’s movement.
Someone over at DRays Bay did a post showing something like this on a pitch graph.
He couldn’t identify if he was throwing different fastballs or just making his fastball do slightly different things but he identified at least 3 different movements on his fastball that clearly looked intentional. Nice to hear this actually backed up by someone who’s watched him pitch.
It feels to me that Pineda—who was arguably the best rookie in the AL this year— (and Campos with his #1 upside) should have yielded a bit more this offseason than a position-free bat and an unproven #4 pitcher, so my first reaction is to dislike the trade.
On the other hand, “a run is a run is a run” runs up against asymptotic limits at the extremes. Being more balanced can help reduce the frustrations on players and fans. Much more importantly, being more balanced gives much greater flexibility to pounce on opportunities as they arise (such as Oswalt being undervalued, etc.) Montero is also ranked anywhere from #3-#7 on most prospect lists. Those guys don’t come cheap.
Montero’s 6’4"? Isn’t that the same height as Mauer and Werth? How many catchers have long careers at that size?
I believe Montero is 6'3 but he's built nothing like Mauer.
Mauer is lankier and less bulky. He doesn’t seem to take up as much room behind the plate as Montero does. Even Matt Wieters who is like 6-4 or 6-5 I believe doesn’t look as big in the crouch as Montero does. He’s built like a linebacker or first baseman.
One thing I was always afraid of with Montero’s size is he might actually take some strike calls away from pitchers because he’s blocking the umps view.
Being that much bigger can't be any treat for his knees in the crouch, either
From your descriptions, I sure hope he never catches Felix. The King already has one of the highest Passed Ball / Wild Pitch rates in the majors; his stuff is so nasty that the M’s really need a superior blocker rather than the string of concrete oven mitts the M’s have been running out behind the plate.
The Yankees made it a point to have no one but Martin catch AJ last year.
They certainly weren’t letting Montero anywhere near that mess. I imagine it would’ve been the same this season with Montero probably catching Garcia and Sabathia games more often than anyone else.
I am irrationally afraid any hitting prospect will crash and burn
So until Montero does something to alleviate my concerns I dislike this trade. I know that’s an awful way to evaluate it, but there’s no guarantee Montero will hit whereas Pineda has already dominated. As far as Noesi and Campos, I actually like that aspect of the trade now. Campos has a higher ceiling but I can see the logic behind getting Noesi now.
I can’t imagine a scenario where he doesn’t make multiple All-Star games unless he suffers some freak catching injury.
I don’t subscribe to the he’s the next Miguel Cabrera or Edgar Martinez hype but he is going to hit and do so at a very high level. I think he compares very well with a more powerful Cano or Carlos Lee. Lee is much more of a dead pull hitter than Montero, but I think the numbers are going to be very similar.
I don’t see 40 HRs or a .400 OBP in Montero’s future but plenty of .300 batting averages and a lot of 28-35 HR seasons. If he somehow catches his value will be through the roof.
We need hitting badly. Well we got hitting. I like Pineda but how good did we do with him as a team last season? How bad could this season possibly become since trading him? I don’t think it could get worse for our M’s. So with this trade, I’m not sure what the outcome is going to be, but at least we are trying. That’s better than nothing. I mean who better to be our savior than jesus himself!?
He certainly looks like a really tall guy. There’s no way I could tell the difference in 6-7 and 6-5 with an eye test, but he certainly doesn’t seem that much smaller than Sabathia. Well not in height anyway, his waist size is much small thank god.
B) changing your screen name is not the appropriate way for dealing with getting into trouble
C) you need to contact someone on the SBN development team
But the poll can be thrown off by Yankees liking the trade when Mariners fans do not. Unless we are presented with a home/away split for the poll outcome, it’s not all that great at taking the temperature of LL’s fanbase. Most of the comments here are “neutral”, and yet 50% of the vote are “like it.”
I don’t think he was insulting their cordiality in the comments.
that’s what I voted – and from many of the reguLLars I’ve discussed this with, it seemed like a pretty general consensus between “like” and “neutral,” but leaning on the up side
And SmoakyCokey is wrong. I was replying to pdb’s reply, as if SmoakyCokey was insulting Yankees’ fans and not being okay. I didn’t read his comment that way. I want to be sure we’re not quick to pull the trigger.
If you post a poll on a Seattle Mariners fan website
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the outcome to be a somewhat accurate representation of the opinions of Seattle Mariners fans. 395 people (12%) “love it”, 1620 “like it”. Really? Does that sound right to you? Because I remember Michael Pineda being pretty darn good
I said I like it, does that mean there's something wrong with me?
It’s like you’re saying that a Mariners fan is wrong because he has a different opinion than you. The general percentage of the poll results don’t surprise me at all.
The Yankees tend to baby their pitchers too much, not overuse them.
So that doesn’t really give me much fear. I don’t fully buy into the whole “inverted W” of death, since plenty of pitchers have used that motion without problems.
I saw this, it was a ligament sprain if I read correctly.
Now this is the only injury related news I could find on him. Was there more than this or is this all there was? One elbow sprain with no structural damage I won’t worry about, multiple injuries and I’ll start to concentrate more on it.
Well like they say there's no such thing as a pitching prospect.
I said somewhere on here that I believe Montero is more the sure bet, because I believe his bat will play and play big, but Pineda has the higher upside. At least to the Yankees anyway. A really good, young number 2 or possible ace is just something you have to take a risk on if you’re the Yankees.
I imagine it’s a similar situation with the Mariners and Montero being a catcher. You have to take a risk on him simply being a DH because the bat is something you just don’t come across often enough to pass up.
I’m really shocked by the amount of hate this trade is getting from the Yankee side. Though I guess I shouldn’t be at this point. All anyone from our side has done for 2 years is turn Montero into the next coming of Edgar Martinez or Miguel Cabrera.
Disliking the trade on our side is an unpopular opinion, to be sure.
There was certainly a lot of overreaction and anger at first, which seems to have calmed down a bit to just disappointment and sadness. I’d say the majority, at least of the ones who are vocal, of PSA loves the trade.
Initially I was neutral, but now I'm starting to like this.
Honestly, Dave’s piece on Noesi on USSM went a long way toward helping me see this a net positive for the organization. That, combined with the notion that Montero might catch a not-insignificant number of games for us. It’s still tough to part with Pineda, even though I believe that it’s more likely than not that Pineda’s already reached his peak value.
I’m philosophically okay with trading Pineda for a bat, but with his “proven” performance at the MLB level and Montero’s lack of it, not to mention Campos’ upside vis a vis Noesi’s might-be-might-not-be middle starter projections…
I would have liked to sell high on Pineda. I feel like we sold at best market value if not a little below. And really, is Montero going to offer significantly more offensive upside in one full season than Mike Carp or a full year of Justin Smoak? Especially if he’s not catching and we have to put up with Olivo?
Is that it doesn’t look like quite the haul the Reds gave up to get Latos. If we assume the M’s will be taking 2012 to rebuild rather than contend (they’re better now than they were last week, yes, but realistically they’re still third in the division), I kind of would rather see more good-to-great pieces rather than one must-not-fail one. And especially one that might end up as just a DH.
Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger and Volquez just seems like a better return for a pitcher who, while more “proven,” isn’t really any better than Pineda (and that’s before you toss in Campos). In fact with Pineda on the block, perhaps you could sub Mesoraco for Grandal and leave Campos out of it altogether.
But maybe Jack talked to the Reds about Pineda before the Latos trade and they weren’t interested, or weren’t willing to give up so much for a guy with just one year of MLB experience (however good it might have been.)
To me, comparing it to another trade just feels like saying, "But Mom, why does he get a lollipop and I dont?!"
I do NOT mean that to come off as dickish, it’s just that… we didn’t get that deal. We got this deal. If there was an opportunity for Jack to trade Pineda/Campos for Mesoraco (a real catcher) and Grandal (who is not nearly the hitting prospect that Montero is) plus Volquez (who is probably more talented than Noesi) then I feel he would have done it. If he had the opportunity. Which tells me that for whatever reason, he didn’t. I would just assume that if Jack was willing to trade Micheal Pineda, he didn’t take the first offer given. He seems smart enough to me to have shopped around and found that the best hitter he could get was Jesus Montero, so he took it. He’s clearly a guy that Jack has wanted for awhile now (if we believe the Cliff Lee rumors, of which I have no doubt about anymore) and he got him.
I will try not to judge this young pitcher trade against other young pitcher trades and just take it for what it is. I happen to like it, but I completely see the argument against it or in the neutral zone.
It could be the Reds just weren’t interested at any non-insulting price. And baseball hypotheticals are a swamp at the best of times. Ultimately the way I’ll feel about the trade is going to depend on how Montero and Noesi do — because I’m an M’s fan, and they’re on the team — and actually very little on Pineda and (especially) Campos do, if for no other reason than by the time Campos reaches the majors I’ll have forgotten he was ever in the M’s system. (David Arias who?) And I’ll certainly have forgotten the Latos trade.
But in the moment, you can’t help but look around and see what else is happening this offseason. It’s like gauging the market for free agents based on what a win is going for in any given winter. It’s an interesting point of comparison.
In that regard, you and I couldn't be more on the same page.
At this point, I could care less what Pineda does in New York. And I DO mean, I could care less… just not much less. This is about Montero and Noesi now.
Montero's bat alone seems better than any of the prospects in the Latos trade
but I agree that deal certainly would seem like a bigger overall haul. Especially when you take into account Montero has no “real” position.
I’ve actually seen some (including Mike Axisa) argue that Latos is by far the better pitcher of the two and I just don’t see that. I really wanted the Yankees to trade for Latos, and he is more prove, but in terms of talent I think Pineda is clearly the pitcher with more potential.
I think I like Devin Mesoraco more than Montero, but only because he's a definite catcher. Definitely believe that Montero has the only elite bat out of all those guys.
I feel like this is a situation where Jack identified a need and wanted to address that need
I’m fine with a two-for-two swap if Zduriencik feels that strongly in Montero’s bat. The part most aren’t fully taking into consideration is that none of Latos’ return is of the quality that Montero is considered to be. I’d rather get one potentially premier player than two or three potential role-players/solid contributors in any trade, as would most people – roster flexibility is important.
I loved Pineda (note the past tense, which happened without me thinking about it) but also am a big Montero fan. No matter what we think of it now, we won’t really know until the games start, or even the end of the season. But I think there’s a lot of upside here. Pitchers and catchers report Feb. 12 — less than a month!
I liked it. I disagree when anyone who complains that we didn't "sell high" on Pineda.
He had a stellar rookie season. His value was sky-high—we got one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball, which in itself speaks volumes to how high his value was. We couldn’t conceivably sell any higher than we did.
The team desperately needed hitting. We got one of the best hitting prospects in the game, who could be a lineup anchor for the better part of a decade. Sky-high potential. MVP potential (I’m not talking “likely” I’m talking “potential”).
The M’s—hell, most teams—don’t have anybody in the system with a ceiling anywhere NEAR what Montero’s is. Even if he busts or Pineda wins Cy Youngs, I think a similar deal needed to happen. I like it.
It might have been higher halfway through last year. But his value was still through the roof, and it’s much easier to imagine his value falling, rather than increasing.
so 1/3 of our lineup are potential all stars with the bat
I now think that we can assemble elite glovemen in the OF and the left side of the IF. I dont necessarily know if this makes us better, but in the future it makes the rest of the team easy to fill out with pieces jack Z knows how to assemble ala the 08 season.
I'm in between neutral and dont't like...
but only time will tell
Eric Wedge's Mustache - January 15, 2012
If they can squeeze some amount of catching out of Montero, I like it.
Otherwise, my heart is filled with neutrality.
JAH - January 15, 2012
"What makes a man turn neutral? Lust for gold? Power? Or were you just born with a heart full of neutrality?"
quacker27 - January 16, 2012
Awwww.
I was far too late with the neutral jokes.
quacker27 - January 16, 2012
The funny thing is that I kind of liked it out of the gate and I'm becoming less pleased the more I re-acquaint myself with Pineda.
Two Rs and Two Ls - January 15, 2012
Well you gotta stop doing that.
Now Pineda is just some Yankee jerk that we used to like.
Fumanchuchu - January 15, 2012
To the Mariners' offense, everyone looks like Michael Pineda, so whatever
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
They don't all do the slow gladiator walk to the dugout
lemonverbena - January 16, 2012
I am neutral
But excited for more data this season! And, fingers crossed, more dingers?
RLfreckles - January 15, 2012
A lot more in favor so far than I would have expected.
For me, it’s all about transferring volatile value from a pitcher to a more sure bet in the position player.
It’s a simplistic view, but it’s the one I’m going with.
BigR - January 15, 2012
I'm coming around on it. The recent Noesi information makes me feel a lot better.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 15, 2012
You mean Dave's post
At USSM?
J0SER - January 15, 2012
That helped sum things up nicely, yes.
There were other people throwing info around, too, that helped.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 15, 2012
I've accepted that it happened.
_Hutch_ - January 15, 2012
So you guys get to go from 1 to 10 but we only get to go from 1 to 5?
Ripoff.
JY - January 15, 2012
This isn't lasagna
J0SER - January 15, 2012
But it can be likened to lasagna.
JY - January 15, 2012
We pay all this money for LL, why can't Matthew and Jeff provide us with lasagna?
Patrick Stites - January 15, 2012
Do you know much lasagna cost to make?
Home stuff isn’t cheap but worth it
LeftArrow2 - January 15, 2012
Well, can we at least get Stouffer's?
Patrick Stites - January 15, 2012
We can, but only if it's moldy
Furry Lasagna. It’s what’s for dinner.
(It also sounds like code for something tres outré.)
J0SER - January 15, 2012
I
Goose - January 15, 2012
Woops. Anyways, I'm leaning more towards like at the moment, but this may be the rare trade where I'm gonna judge it more based on the results.
Goose - January 15, 2012
I really fought to judge this solely on what we know right now, and put no conditionals on it, hence "Like this trade"
Even though I want to know all sorts of things now now now about Montero’s catching ability and durability, Pineda’s durability and development, how the M’s rotation will do against the Angels and Rangers offenses without Pineda, how Ackley-Smoak-Montero will do against the aces of the Angels and Rangers staffs, and so on.
A sick sense of cosmic timing dictates that just as we rationalize our opinions on this trade, Z comes out tomorrow morning with “I’ll just leave this here…” and has us all have another meLLtdown about a Fielder signing or a surprise 4-way trade for a premiere 3b or somedamnthing.
Chris_FB - January 15, 2012
x
Lord Duggan - January 16, 2012
This was his first HR to the pull side of the year I believe.
He had gone the other way on two or three others, plus shot most of his hits the other way since being called and Weaver tried to sneak one inside. He really showed a nice ability to look outside yet still adjust and pull the inside pitch with power. No doubt about it his bat is special.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I think the best part about this in slow-motion is watching Weaver's reaction to Montero's contact
cwel87 - January 16, 2012
I don't know how I feel about this trade
cdlewey - January 15, 2012
What makes a man turn Neutral?
Trenchtown - January 16, 2012
I like it.
We traded from an area of strength to fill a weakness. I don’t ‘love it’ because Montero isn’t a sure thing positionally. I am confident about his bat, though.
Wilder. - January 15, 2012
Neutral, but leaning towards like it
Corco - January 15, 2012
I was neutral at first, but what I've been reading about Noesi tipped it towards liking it for me.
And I’m beyond excited to see Montero be awesome in Seattle for at least six years.
Cascadian Man - January 15, 2012
Neutral at the moment.
One one hand I am still just really sad about losing Pineda, the pitcher and the guy. On the other hand I’m starting to get hopeful about Montero and Noesi’s potential. Right now they kind of cancel each other out to make me feel neutral. Time will tell.
truemsfan - January 15, 2012
Is it too early for a sign in the stands reading "Who needs Albert - We found Jesus"?
Chris_FB - January 15, 2012
I'd just get it out of the way at the first home game before the joke becomes even more tired than it is already.
Cascadian Man - January 15, 2012
It will always be too late for that.
Mariner John - January 15, 2012
Aw. :(
Chris_FB - January 15, 2012
Absolutely not.
Mariner Melee - January 15, 2012 via Android app
I like it!
datboyeddiep - January 16, 2012
I am non-plussed, leaning toward positive.
Mariner John - January 15, 2012
If you're leaning anywhere, you're moving into plussed territory...
regardless of whether or not it’s positive or negative.
Language is weird.
JY - January 15, 2012
I didn't know if plussed would mean positive or not given that non-plussed is neutral.
Mariner John - January 15, 2012
Nonplussed actually means that you're surprised and unsure how to react.
WhyGodWhy - January 15, 2012
Therefore, plussed means he's starting to get where he's figuring out how to react.
JY - January 15, 2012
I should stop using words I only think I know the definitions of!
Glad to learn though.
Mariner John - January 15, 2012
Definitely stop using "nonplussed."
not because you got the definition wrong, but because most people get it wrong, because it’s a word that seems like it means something that it doesn’t. it’s a deceitful word. fuck you, nonplussed.
Lucas Cervi - January 16, 2012
"I'm not sure how to feel about that Lucas" - nonplussed
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
We've kind of replaced it's common usage with 'whelmed'
Matthew - January 16, 2012
Which often involves the usage of over/under
Kermit. - January 16, 2012
"but i'm surprised you feel that way!"
Lucas Cervi - January 17, 2012
I've become much more positive on the trade the past two days
As people have managed to convince me Montero will be able to catch, at least somewhat.
ARock - January 15, 2012
Agreed.
If he can catch 40-80 games a year that adds a ton of value for him. Spend the rest of the time at DH to keep him healthy and if his bat develops like everyone thinks it will we could have a star on our hands.
mebpenguin - January 15, 2012
After Dave's write up on Noesi I think I like this trade a lot more. If he can turn into a Scott Baker or hell, Dan Haren, I think this trade turns out into a major boon
beastwarking - January 15, 2012
As A Yankee fan I think Dan Haren is a little out of reach for Noesi.
But I could see him being a Scott Baker or a little better easily. I’m not as high on the kid as some Yankee fans are but he is a solid pitcher who showed a lot of poise for a young pitcher making his first go through the major leagues.
Reports out of Winter ball were that his velocity had increased substantially since the regular season ended, into the mid 90’s touching as high as 97. If he can maintain an uptick in velocity then I would have to completely reevaluate his upside. But I maintained a wait and see approach with it since it was no more than reports.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
He is our new Fister and all of our hopes and dreams rest in his right(?) arm
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
Improvements in the offseason would make a lot of sense.
It would explain the balance of the trade a bit better.
Lucas Cervi - January 16, 2012
He has a complete repertoire of pitches so if the velocity is truly as high as reported he goes to another level in potential ceiling.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Like it, I'd probably be in the love it camp, if not for irrational Pineda love.
Patrick Stites - January 15, 2012
Not ever hearing another terrible Pineda nickname makes this worth it.
Oh and dingers.
the other side - January 15, 2012
I don't think we are ride of the nickname issue.
stredarts - January 15, 2012
rid*
stredarts - January 15, 2012
Neutral.
And I am so happy I get to feel things other than utter hated and disgust.
I did “grow up” in the Bavasi years. I am just so happy to see a thought process behind it all.
Mariner Melee - January 15, 2012 via Android app
Not sure I like it.
Team needs offense badly, we have a surplus of pitching, yadda yadda yadda. I know, but we had a group of Great pitchers/pitching prospects under the age of 26. (Felix, Pineda, hultzen, walker, paxton, and campos) Now 2 of those are gone and all we got was another 1b/DH. Now, I know he’s a great player, but I dunno, I think it’s harder to find a Pineda than it is to find a Montero. Including Campos puts this trade over the top for me, unless Noesi turns out to be great I don’t like giving up that much. Pineda for Montero straight up would have been hard enough to stomach.
But then again, I think Pineda/Campos carry considerably more risk than Montero and Noesi. Pineda has been hurt before, only has 2 pitches, and is going to a ballpark that loooooves left handed hitters. I think he’ll be fine, but you never know, lefties could eat him alive there w/o a changeup. And he has already been injured, so theres that. Also, Campos is only 19, so yeah there’s a ton of risk there.
I think I would give it a 4/10 on the lasagna scale. Like, the lasagna was really good, but now its like 2 days old and you’re reheating it.
Sambearpig - January 15, 2012
If Montero can catch 60 games, and play the other 100 at 1b/dh. It looks a lot better.
Sambearpig - January 15, 2012
Montero is going to drive you crazy behind the plate.
His enormous body makes it somewhat painful to watch him behind the plate. He has a cannon for an arm and made some spectacular throws in his short stent, but at times he isn’t able to make a good throw because of his size. He’s going to be a passed ball and wild pitch nightmare, but his ability to actually catch the ball isn’t that bad. He isn’t a catcher who is going to frame pitches all that well, but the glove isn’t going to move a ton from the spot he catches the ball. Strong hands and wrists is the way I would put it.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
We've gotten used to some of those behind the plate shenanigans since 2005.
JY - January 16, 2012
I wish I could compare him to Olivo for you guys but I've only seen Olivo catch a couple games.
Of which his defensive skills were the last thing I was watching.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
2008.
Johjima was the shit.
harkening - January 16, 2012
I sometimes feel as though our catcher has always been Miguel Olivo or Rob Johnson.
JY - January 16, 2012
It's been a long three years
:-(
cwel87 - January 16, 2012
(Thank goodness for 2009 or it'd feel even longer)
cwel87 - January 16, 2012
With a good arm...
Is 3rd base an option? Or does he wear cement cleats?
Fumanchuchu - January 16, 2012
No, no, no, no, no.
He’s going to be slow rounding bases. Outfield and 3rd are completely out of the question with his athletic ability, or lack thereof. Catcher, First, or DH seems to be the only options for him at this point.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Joe Mauer is 6'5"/230 to Montero's 6'4"/225.
It’s not Montero’s size that bugs me. Matt Weiters is also 6’5"/230. The best defensive catcher the Mariners have ever known (Dan Wilson) was listed 6’3"/215. Catchers tend to be a little bit bigger than the more spry middle infielders.
If Montero’s bumbling can be coached out of him, then awesome. Problem is after these years in the Yankees’ system, people are still iffy on him. Which tells me he’s just not athletically capable enough to be a good catcher – not because of his size, but because he’s just bad.
harkening - January 16, 2012
He just looks bigger than those guys though. Not in height but in pure girth
I know there are bigger catchers than him but none of them look bigger in the crouch. Weiters is a taller catcher than Montero but he doesn’t look it in the crouch. Same with Mauer, even though you know he’s bigger it just doesn’t look that way in catchers gear.
I wouldn’t describe it as “bumbling” so much as just being inflexible. When in the crouch he has a hard time looking athletic and his size really comes into play. He just looks like he’s built like a linebacker not a catcher.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Yeah, but to the end of catcher size and girth one can only point to the Molina brothers.
Build isn’t inherently limiting in the catcher position.
harkening - January 16, 2012
This is true.
I guess it’s just because of the inflexibility that his size sticks out so much. I will say Jose Molina was with the Yankees for 3 years and started an almost entire season one year and he never looked as big behind the plate as Jesus. Compared to Montero Molina was a graceful gazelle. Jose was really a joy to watch behind the plate.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I always hate it when I find out that a player is my size and height and I'm like "HEY I SHOULD BE AS ATHLETIC AS HIM!"
And then I realize that he’s the same weight as me because of muscle and not fat.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
It's easier to find a glass of water than a steak.
But if you’ve got a freezer full of steaks and you’re dying of thirst….
Fumanchuchu - January 15, 2012
This sounds like something Ichiro would say
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 16, 2012 via mobile
I love it.
But that’s probably because I’m down on Pineda and high on Montero, especially of the impact he could have on our offense.
EequalsMc2 - January 15, 2012
I think I felt that way going in, but lefties didn't really hurt him all that much last year.
He still struck out 7.7 per 9, and walked 2.6 per 9. Both of those rates are within a half-percentage of Jered Weaver (7.6, 2.5). Jered Weaver is pretty good. Weaver’s great 2011 seems driven by his high strand rate and low HR/FB, but I think the point stands.
It’s numbers like that which scare me that we got taken on this deal.
Two Rs and Two Ls - January 15, 2012
What part of Pineda are you down on.
cedarA - January 15, 2012
It just felt like everyone's so high on him even though he only showed one season.
EequalsMc2 - January 15, 2012
As opposed to Montero only showing a handful of September at-bats?
Fearless Frog - January 16, 2012 via mobile
That's apples and oranges.
I see more holes in Pineda’s pitching game than Montero’s hitting.
EequalsMc2 - January 16, 2012
It's probably because he was amazing in that one season
He showed that he can be successful even if a third pitch never develops. His ceiling if is change does improve is that of Cy Young contender and it’s a very reachable ceiling, though Montero has a ceiling that’s nearly as high too.
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Velocity faded a bit down the stretch, has been injury prone in his career
third pitch showed minimal development, one less year of team control, still a pitcher?
I mean it’s not like I’m thrilled that Pineda is leaving, but this seems like a reasonable sell high to me, even if I wish we had gotten a bit more in return
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
I'm excited to see Montero behind the plate. In the few videos I've been able to find he looks alright
Glove hardly moves, he keeps his butt up off his heels. Just a couple of videos and a handful of pitches but it looks better than what I’m reading. I’ve been pretty wary of public scouting reports for a long time, probably before Valle. Sometimes you have to wonder what they were looking at, like Rob Johnson.
Kermit. - January 16, 2012
Rob Johnson was a highly regarded baseball player who could not hit
thus, he had to be good at something, so defense it is! When that was proved demonstrably wrong, pitch sequencing it is!
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
I'm starting to think "The pitchers love him!" is rock bottom.
Kermit. - January 16, 2012
Well I mean I guess it's better than the entire Rob Johnson deal and the pitchers hate him
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
Wait until he has to move to get to a pitch. The immobility starts to show up then.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Where does this "Michael Pineda is injury prone" come from?
I’ve seen this a zajillion times here (and other places), and I don’t even know where it comes from. From anything I’ve seen or heard, he’s had one injury in his 6 year pro career. One injury that wasn’t serious and seems to be well back in the rear-view mirror.
It would be one thing if it was a serious injury that required surgery and put his future career in jeapordy, or a chronic injury that has popped up a few times, or a series of this-or-thats that have plagued him throughout his career. He’s had one injury that kept him out for a while, but other than that, everything’s been golden.
Could we just stop referring to Michael Pineda as an injury-prone pitcher? It doesn’t at all seem to be in line with his career to this point.
nathaniel dawson - January 16, 2012
I'm on the dislike side of neutral...
What we got was nice, but the loss of Campos – even with all the young pitching talent we still have – hurts. I feel we needed either a better return or given up someone “lesser” than Campos… But still, a potential #4-#5 pitcher who’s major league ready and a 22 year old with such potential – rather he is a catcher, 1B, or DH for most of the future – is still very nice.
What I’m digging is if Smoak and Montero can come close to being what they could be – .280-.300 hitters with 30-35 HR manning 1B/C or 1B/DH, plus Ackley will really be quite a killer punch in our lineup.
Hiro55cool - January 15, 2012
I like it
I love it
I want some more of it
Mayo - January 15, 2012
I don't know if I'd want more of it- another bat would be nice but that would leave our pitching cupboard pretty bare
Corco - January 15, 2012
I try so hard,
I can’t rise above it.
Bart's Evil Twin - January 15, 2012
I like it
With our pitching depth, I feel this is a move that we could justify.
Yeah, losing Pineda and his future definitely sucks, but if Montero’s bat can be what some believe it’ll be, and I know it’s a big if, then it’s definitely worth it to me.
I’m just concerned about him being thrown right into the middle of the lineup, especially at Dave Niehaus Field.
MontpikeMike - January 15, 2012
I've come around to liking it.
The M’s managed to drastically changed the structure of their team by changing pitching into hitting, and didn’t pay a premium to do so. They lost no value in the trade, and perhaps created value for themselves if having a more balanced team is considered to be generally better than an unbalanced team (all pitching, no hitting)
mkries - January 15, 2012 via mobile
this is a contrast to,
For example, the heithcliff slocumb and joseI cruz trades. At that time, there was tremendous pressure on the team to add pitching, particularly relief pitching. Just a few days prior to one of those deals, I remember they blew a lead of at least 6 runs and lost to the Red Sox on a Mo Vaughn grand slam. They almost immediately reacted by paying way too much for some relievers.
mkries - January 15, 2012 via mobile
And not even good relievers.
mebpenguin - January 15, 2012
Neutral, but more like unsure.
I get why some people like Campos, but man, I just can’t get myself to care. It’s not right because nothing is ever a sure thing, but having Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker is comforting.
Pineda is awesome. In my mind, he’s still a Mariner, and probably will be until Opening Day. I’m just weirded out by the fact that we now have Smoak and Montero. I read Dave’s piece on Noesi, but I’m going to wait and see on him.
Aaroniero Arruruerie - January 15, 2012
I miss the old days where Z bent his trading partner over a barrel and had his way with them
Poochie - January 15, 2012
I miss Doug Fister
abender20 - January 15, 2012
old days = July 2011, Bedard trade?
I thought that was an awesome trade.
Ben Tumbling - January 15, 2012
Z and Theo gang raping Coletti?
all day every day
valencia - January 15, 2012
Probably couldn't pay their minor leaguers any more.
joof - January 15, 2012
My favorite quote from that article that Grant Brisbee did after the trade deadline
cdlewey - January 15, 2012
I voted i don't like it but I do trust Jack. I wasn't sure how to factor in my trust for Jack
If we sign Oswalt then I like the trade for Jesus. That wasn’t an option either
wahz - January 15, 2012
On Noesi,
I’m still not sure about the upside or how he compares to Campos in absolute value, but one advantage of getting a major league ready middle- to back of rotation guy is that he may prevent us from rushing any of Hultzen, Paxton, Walker.
expatbayern - January 15, 2012
The reasonable upside for Noesi is a 4-5 starter, though some have gone as far as a number 3.
If he truly has gained as much velocity as we’ve heard in Winter ball then he may truly have the upside of a number 3. However until I see that velocity confirmed state side I won’t believe it.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I won't like it until I see what Jesus can do
I’m not a knee-jerk reaction kind of person, but I felt great about what we had in Pineda, and I am not entirely certain of what we have in Montero. I will say that I have certainly gotten closer to neutrality as the trade gets further away.
Still, offense!
cwel87 - January 15, 2012
I am okay with this trade.
At first, I was just irrationally upset because I became a huge fan of Pineda. After thinking about it, though, I just don’t see where we were going to get a major bat during this FA period without otherwise overpaying for it. I sure as hell don’t want anything to do with Prince Fielder. This was the least risky way to get an ostensibly major-league ready big bat considering:
a) the stockpile of starting pitching in the minors
b) the payroll flexibility the Ms still have after getting that major bat.
If Montero has the power to hit to the opposite field and his contact rate is okay, I will fully accept this as a move where Pineda just didn’t have the value to the Ms that Montero has.
Razztopia - January 15, 2012
Neutral
I think this deal slightly favors the Yankees because they need fewer breaks to make this deal pay off.
On the other hand, while I was never a big fan of the hoopla surrounding Jesus Montero, I am intrigued at what he brings to the table now that he’s in the Mariners organizaiton. In addition, Hector Noesi is another interesting option for the rotation.
I do find myself hoping that Montero can be a passable catcher in the least going forward. Despite the apparent risk, I’m leaning towards liking this deal.
ThundaPC - January 15, 2012
I saw quite a few boards with livid Yankee fans calling for Cashman's head.
That certainly didn’t make me hate it.
Fumanchuchu - January 15, 2012
This sums up pretty much exactly how I feel about the deal.
Zwakamatsu - January 15, 2012
More trades to come!
This might be a interesting year, trade wise.
LeftArrow2 - January 15, 2012
Abstaining, because I still don't think I can vote with my head
Aly Edge - January 15, 2012
that's a great way to break a keyboard
pdb - January 15, 2012
Well in that case I'm *really* glad I didn't vote with my heart ;\
Aly Edge - January 16, 2012
I am surprised that so many people like this trade
I do too but usually it is hard to get everyone to agree.this much
Ichiro's Jock Strap - January 15, 2012
Even though the deal slightly favors the Yankees...
…knowing we have Hultzen, Paxton, and Walker with #2 potential coming up either this year or next (maybe not Walker), and combine that with the incredible desire for a masher since Edgar left us, I actually love the trade.
dertingfactor - January 15, 2012
For such a big trade I was amazed by how little emotion I felt.
Apart from the initial surprise, anyway.
Eyeball Kid - January 15, 2012
Same right here dude
DoctaTuck - January 15, 2012
We're all just dead inside.
Mariners fandom has taken its toll.
Mothy - January 15, 2012 via Android app
This is a tough one for me to form an opinion on.
I like the basic idea of trading pitching for hitting, but all the players involved have so little major league experience that it is hard to really decide how I feel about it since I don’t have enough information to decide how good Montero will be. I think this would be an interesting question to ask again at the all-star break.
wetzelcoal - January 15, 2012
I really just wish we could have our Pineda and Montero too
Dewey N - January 15, 2012
Just wait five years:
We sign Pineda as a free agent and have both for at least a year!
extavernmouse - January 15, 2012
I'm super super excited
So if for no other reason than that I love it.
Ackley might be our savior but Jesus as his side kick makes me believe even more.
valencia - January 15, 2012
I'm concerned that Montero is underpowered
And frankly did not perform that well.
No wonder Mitsubishi dropped it in 2007.
Paytheline - January 15, 2012
Mitsubishi still makes it
They just don’t sell it in the US anymore. (In some markets it has different names, too: Pajero or Shogun). It remains quite popular worldwide. (Back in the 90s it was so often the “wife’s car” for ex-pats in Dubai that those ladies of the country club class were called “Pajero Janes”)
J0SER - January 16, 2012
It was really underpowered when sold in the US though, at least compared to other SUVs of its size
Corco - January 16, 2012
I like to think that this is a precursor to getting something for Olivio.
Zwakamatsu - January 15, 2012
Can we even get anything for Olivo?
EequalsMc2 - January 15, 2012
Didn't say I like to think logically about getting something for Olivio.
Zwakamatsu - January 15, 2012
I don't think anyone will want Olivio
Mariner John - January 16, 2012
I was 0% serious in my original comment and apologize for not making that clear.
I need to post more often.
Zwakamatsu - January 16, 2012
Paging Dayton Moore.
voltron27 - January 16, 2012
"We're getting the 2009 Royals back together again"
Actually, maybe somebody can call Yuni and ask him to lobby Moore for Olivo. Yuni seems to have some kind of weird hold on the guy.
J0SER - January 16, 2012
Cash considerations are some things.
harkening - January 16, 2012
Voted neutral.
For me, a lot hinges on where the Mariners plan to play Montero. If they intend to keep him at catcher and he ends up not being a complete disaster, then I can see this trade moving into the “strong like” category.
JLC - January 15, 2012
Like it.
If Montero can catch 40 odd games at catcher while being awesome and Noesi turns into a serviceable mid-back end starter then I’ll love it.
Vogelscheuche - January 16, 2012
I don't like it much, but last night I had a series of Ackley, Smoak, Montero dreams that kept on waking me up with their sheer awesomeness.
So I could see myself coming around on it over time. But right now it feels like we gave up more than we got, and with how desperate the Yankees were for pitching I don’t think that should have happened.
Mothy - January 16, 2012
Like we weren't even more desperate for hitting?
I think it was fair value on both sides. We accepted more risk in Montero, so we gave risk back in Campos. We accepted more upside in Montero, so we gave more upside back in Campos.
valencia - January 16, 2012
Actually since the Yankees are in a much better position to compete for a championship, and they have the expectations to do so
I think the pressure on them to make this move was greater than that on our side. In Montero we accepted risk in both his bat- which he hasn’t proved can play at the big league level, and in his glove- whether or not he can stick at catcher. And if he can’t stick at catcher…
Now you’ve got me feeling worse about the trade again.
Mothy - January 16, 2012
This is exactly why I don't like it
By all accounts, it seems a fair trade. Both players have potential, both have questions, etc. And yes, the Mariners need hitting and the Yankees need pitching, but the Yankees need pitching in 2012 much more than the Mariners need hitting in 2012. I feel Z should have waited. Maybe Spring Training rolls around and the Yankees realize that Garcia doesn’t have another year left in him, AJ is still AJ, and Phil Hughes is still not Phil Hughes, and they get desperate. Or maybe July rolls around and Montero is still rotting in AAA, or he’s been playing catcher and the Mariners have more to evaluate him on. Unless Z & co were legitimately worried that Pineda’s stock would fall for whatever reasons, I think they should have waited.
cblacker - January 16, 2012
I actually feel like it's the opposite.
I think Montero is the less risky play and Pineda has more upside.
I fully believe Montero will never stick at catcher long term. Many of my fellow Yankee fans disagree with me, but most of them are kind of dumb haha, or at the very least completely irrational about all prospects Jesus most of all. However I think his bat will be All-Star caliber for years to come. I see him a lot like a Robinson Cano with more power but more K’s and less BB’s.
I believe Pineda’s upside to be roughly the same as CC Sabathia, they seem like very similar pitchers as when CC was young. Correct me if someone disagrees with this one. But the injury risk is much higher with any pitcher as opposed to a DH.
This is why I was pretty shocked we got Campos in the deal simply for Noesi. If the Mariners were competing for a title this year I would understand this part of it more, but as is I thought it was a little much.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Right, but Cano has a defensive position
as much as I love the idea of “holy shit Jesus Montero is anchoring our lineup,” I can’t help but shake the Jose Vidro thought of “where will he play!?”
For me, without a definite position, Montero’s upside is a bit limited. Being a DH just massacres his value
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
I agree with this. This is the reason I have been open to the idea of trading him while most Yankee fans weren't
At the end of the day I don’t think he’s a catcher, but you guys have more flexibility in your infield than we do. If you could suffer through 40+ games at catcher, mix in some time at 1B, and give him the rest of the year at DH he would still see enough time in the field to be more valuable than just a DH.
I do believe he has to stick at catcher in some degree for this trade to make sense from a Mariner perspective, simply because I love Pineda’s upside so much. But even if he is just a DH he’s going to improve your offense by a ton. So that’s a plus in whatever way you get it.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Does anybody know that answer to this:
How long has Jesus been a catcher? Since he was 4? I mean, like he’s been working on this his whole life and truth be told, he’s just too large? Like, he’ll never get it?
Or another way to put it, how many current catchers weren’t very good at 22 and then we’re serviceable-to-good by the time they were 25? Are we putting it at less than a 20% chance that Montero can catch 100 games or is it more like 5%?
I’ve been following minor leagues for 2-3 years and so I’ve read a lot on Montero. It seems like he’s better now than he was 2 years ago, but still a lot of people saying “He’d be one of the worst catchers in the majors” at which point, it would seem more like 5% that he’ll ever improve.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
I'm just going off what I've seen of him when he got behind the plate.
Which I’ll admit isn’t as much as I would like. I watched every inning he caught in spring training, the few times he put the gear on last season, some video online, and a small amount of Scranton game footage. However to me he seems like he is just too big.
He was signed at 17 as a catcher and as far as I know he has never played another position in the minor leagues. He seems to be dedicated to working on catching, he has had a couple of discipline issues, though none of them seem to be lack of effort in the catching department.
His biggest problem behind the plate that I’ve seen is blocking balls. Anything in the dirt has a high probability of getting past him, or at the very least becoming an adventure. He’s simply so big and slow it’s hard for him to block balls and he leaves a giant hole in between his legs the glove doesn’t always cover. I saw multiple balls go in between his legs and to the back stop last year most catchers would’ve blocked no problem. That’s a size and flexibility issue, one I’m not sure how you fix.
He receives the ball decent, though he isn’t the best at framing. He also has an absolute cannon for an arm, though he sometimes has a hard time getting out of the crouch to make the throw to 2nd. In the minors they worked with him on simply leaning forward to make the throw instead of popping up to do so. The plus side is he has the arm to make that kind of throw, the down side being he has to make that kind of throw because of his athletic ability.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Thanks, that helps put a lot of his issues into perspective and why I can understand some people saying he'll never make it as a full-time catcher.
Honestly, if someone posed to me the hypothetical, “Would you trade Michael Pineda for the best DH in the AL?” I would say yes. Not to put that kind of pressure on Montero, but if he just turns into an “All-Star” DH, then yes, I would have still made the deal. That’s just me though… I’m probably overreacting because I’m sick of losing hope when the M’s give up 4 runs.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
His bat is signifigant. The only problem I have with him is the lack of walks.
He never controlled the strike zone the way I was hoping in the minor leagues. I’d almost want to compare him to David Ortiz with the bat but I don’t believe he has the 40 HR potential David showed from time to time, and I don’t believe he will post the consistently high OBP David.
I’m not sure I would’ve traded Pineda for Montero, but our two teams are really in very opposite positions. I’ve known giant offensive production for years, but top flight young pitching has rarely come along. If I had the kind of minor league pitching depth the Mariners had and the lack of offense over the past years I might feel differently about it. One things for sure Ackley, Montero, and Smoak could be a deadly trio in the lineup. Especially when you consider you can mix and match anyway you want with a lefty, righty, and switch hitter.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
That's the funny thing about Montero's plate discipline...
I see people throw around the “Well, if he hits .300/.400/.500” triple slash, and those are high expectations of a .400 OBP for Montero. But, you know, he’s so young that it’s not an uncommon issue for a young guy to be impatient. He KNOWS that he can hit the ball a mile, so he wants to swing it… when he learns that he’s a threat that pitchers will pitch around, I trust (hope) that he’ll become a patient power hitter.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
Yeah logic and Montero projections don't always go hand in hand
The Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Martinez comparisons have actually gotten really old after these past few years. I’ve actually had otther Yankee fans get mad at me for saying is more like Carlos Lee than those two.
Certainly there is a possibility his discipline does a massive uptick and he becomes a .380-.400 OBP guy. But I’ve been hoping the same of Cano since he came up. For some reason he just hasn’t understood taking walks is a good thing. I know Kevin Long has pulled his hair out trying to get him to understand what he could be with a little more patients. We thought he figured it out in 2010 with his 8.2% BB rate, but he fell right back down to 5.6% this past season. Oh well he’s still a great hitter, just not the MVP he could be with a little more patience.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
The way I'm looking at it, both Montero and Pineda have one pretty serious question about them
Montero’s ability to handle any time behind the plate or move to another defensive position that he might be good at, while Pineda lacks a true third pitch.
As much as I hate evaluating a trade in hindsight, this one almost has to be evaluated that way – if Montero can’t play any defense and Pineda develops his change, it looks awful for Seattle; likewise, if Pineda never develops a change and struggles with lefties, especially in Yankee Stadium and Montero can be like -7.5 runs positional instead of -17.5, it’s a huge win for the Mariners.
I’m not wildly concerned with Noesi for Campos, which seems like a pretty obvious upside vs. readiness swap.
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
This sums it up pretty well.
For what it’s worth I hope it works out for both teams. The Granderson trade has seemed to do big things for all three teams involved, I don’t see any reason this can’t do the same. It’s one of the plus sides to two teams trading to early 20 something prospects for each other, hopefully neither team loses and both win.
I’ll be rooting for Montero, as long as he isn’t facing the Yankees.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I like it.
I haven’t heard anyone talk about the Venezuela side. Maybe because it doesn’t exist or isn’t important. Anyone know if Felix (or Guti or other Ven guys) has any friendship with Montero or has played with him? Has Felix said anything about the trade yet? Anyways, welcome to the Ms Montero and Noesi.
Kdub747 - January 16, 2012
Voted Neutral
My immediate reaction was that I really didn’t like the Noesi/Campos part of the deal, thinking it superfluous with the potential to hit big for the Yankees. I still don’t care much for that part of the deal – or for Noesi for that matter – but I realize that’s purely subjective: Noesi’s recent scouting reports are much better than his past ones and Campos was, realistically, a high-risk player that was probably this team’s fourth-best pitching prospect. I’m slowly coming around.
I actually liked the Pineda/Montero swap from the get-go but, after reading a lot of informed comments here and abroad, I’m starting to cool on that part of the deal. So I end up neutral.
ThomasG - January 16, 2012
Can someone tell me if Pineda throws a change or a split?
I watched a few of Pineda’s games last year because young power arms interest me when they get called up. However when I watched I couldn’t tell if he was using a change or split grip the few times I saw him throw something other than a slider or fastball.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
He throws a change.
Link
Ballard Erik - January 16, 2012
Has he discussed it anywhere?
I know fangraphs is pretty reliable on pitch identification but I don’t trust their change/spit differential anymore because of Lincecum. I don’t care what anyone wants to call it he throws a split. his index and middle finger are clearly spread a top the ball.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Not really
the org has always said he’s developing the change as his third pitch, but we didn’t see much of it during the season
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
If he truly is developing a change I wonder if a split would be better.
The change tends to be more of a feel pitch, so maybe a power splitter fits in more with his skill set.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
He does throw a sort of split fingered two seamer
But not a true backspin heavy split because it still sits in the low 90’s on velocity. He will kind of mix that in with his fastball just to keep guys guessing on it’s movement.
twelveoutof10 - January 16, 2012
Someone over at DRays Bay did a post showing something like this on a pitch graph.
He couldn’t identify if he was throwing different fastballs or just making his fastball do slightly different things but he identified at least 3 different movements on his fastball that clearly looked intentional. Nice to hear this actually backed up by someone who’s watched him pitch.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Keep in mind this is just my interpretation from watching 170 odd innings
And about a dozen games with him working out in the outfield. He clearly (to my eyes) adjusts his fastball grip from time to time.
twelveoutof10 - January 16, 2012
Every lit bit helps me further understand him so it's appreciated.
I watched around 10 games he pitched last year but I was more just sitting back and enjoying the show as opposed to scouting him.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I like and dislike the trade
It feels to me that Pineda—who was arguably the best rookie in the AL this year— (and Campos with his #1 upside) should have yielded a bit more this offseason than a position-free bat and an unproven #4 pitcher, so my first reaction is to dislike the trade.
On the other hand, “a run is a run is a run” runs up against asymptotic limits at the extremes. Being more balanced can help reduce the frustrations on players and fans. Much more importantly, being more balanced gives much greater flexibility to pounce on opportunities as they arise (such as Oswalt being undervalued, etc.) Montero is also ranked anywhere from #3-#7 on most prospect lists. Those guys don’t come cheap.
Montero’s 6’4"? Isn’t that the same height as Mauer and Werth? How many catchers have long careers at that size?
bookbook - January 16, 2012
I believe Montero is 6'3 but he's built nothing like Mauer.
Mauer is lankier and less bulky. He doesn’t seem to take up as much room behind the plate as Montero does. Even Matt Wieters who is like 6-4 or 6-5 I believe doesn’t look as big in the crouch as Montero does. He’s built like a linebacker or first baseman.
One thing I was always afraid of with Montero’s size is he might actually take some strike calls away from pitchers because he’s blocking the umps view.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Being that much bigger can't be any treat for his knees in the crouch, either
From your descriptions, I sure hope he never catches Felix. The King already has one of the highest Passed Ball / Wild Pitch rates in the majors; his stuff is so nasty that the M’s really need a superior blocker rather than the string of concrete oven mitts the M’s have been running out behind the plate.
J0SER - January 16, 2012
The Yankees made it a point to have no one but Martin catch AJ last year.
They certainly weren’t letting Montero anywhere near that mess. I imagine it would’ve been the same this season with Montero probably catching Garcia and Sabathia games more often than anyone else.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I am irrationally afraid any hitting prospect will crash and burn
So until Montero does something to alleviate my concerns I dislike this trade. I know that’s an awful way to evaluate it, but there’s no guarantee Montero will hit whereas Pineda has already dominated. As far as Noesi and Campos, I actually like that aspect of the trade now. Campos has a higher ceiling but I can see the logic behind getting Noesi now.
SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar - January 16, 2012 via mobile
He's going to hit.
I can’t imagine a scenario where he doesn’t make multiple All-Star games unless he suffers some freak catching injury.
I don’t subscribe to the he’s the next Miguel Cabrera or Edgar Martinez hype but he is going to hit and do so at a very high level. I think he compares very well with a more powerful Cano or Carlos Lee. Lee is much more of a dead pull hitter than Montero, but I think the numbers are going to be very similar.
I don’t see 40 HRs or a .400 OBP in Montero’s future but plenty of .300 batting averages and a lot of 28-35 HR seasons. If he somehow catches his value will be through the roof.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I like it
We need hitting badly. Well we got hitting. I like Pineda but how good did we do with him as a team last season? How bad could this season possibly become since trading him? I don’t think it could get worse for our M’s. So with this trade, I’m not sure what the outcome is going to be, but at least we are trying. That’s better than nothing. I mean who better to be our savior than jesus himself!?
datboyeddiep - January 16, 2012
I've been reading a lot of conflicting statements on Pineda's height
I’ve always thought he was 6-7, but I’ve read plenty of sources citing him at 6-5. Does anyone now his true height?
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
It's closer to 6'7.
He got taller as he was coming up through the minor leagues and some of the scouting reports didn’t update, taking account of that.
JY - January 16, 2012
Thank you for the quick response.
He certainly looks like a really tall guy. There’s no way I could tell the difference in 6-7 and 6-5 with an eye test, but he certainly doesn’t seem that much smaller than Sabathia. Well not in height anyway, his waist size is much small thank god.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Love, love, love that we have Jesus Montero. I'm head over heels.
But can’t “love” the trade when we lose Mr. Pineda, so overall it’s a like.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
Does anyone know how to change your screen name?
It appears I just got in trouble.
MontpikeMike - January 16, 2012
A) this is off topic
B) changing your screen name is not the appropriate way for dealing with getting into trouble
C) you need to contact someone on the SBN development team
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
Thanks for the kind advice.
I’d like to be able to keep posting here without getting in trouble and having to create a new account, hence why I asked.
MontpikeMike - January 16, 2012
Creating a new account is just going to get you banned over and over
yes, the mods can track that kind of stuff
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
It's not the mods I'm concerned. I've never done anything inappropriate on here.
It’s the folks that sign my paychecks that are on me.
MontpikeMike - January 16, 2012
Hey Yankee's fans!
This poll isn’t for you, stop voting
SmoakyCokey - January 16, 2012
Hey you know what?
Yankee fans visiting here have been nothing but cool since the trade. I wish I could say the same for everyone here.
pdb - January 16, 2012
Yes, they have been.
But the poll can be thrown off by Yankees liking the trade when Mariners fans do not. Unless we are presented with a home/away split for the poll outcome, it’s not all that great at taking the temperature of LL’s fanbase. Most of the comments here are “neutral”, and yet 50% of the vote are “like it.”
I don’t think he was insulting their cordiality in the comments.
harkening - January 16, 2012
What happens if 50% of the vote actually is like?
that’s what I voted – and from many of the reguLLars I’ve discussed this with, it seemed like a pretty general consensus between “like” and “neutral,” but leaning on the up side
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
Then the poll is accurate.
And SmoakyCokey is wrong. I was replying to pdb’s reply, as if SmoakyCokey was insulting Yankees’ fans and not being okay. I didn’t read his comment that way. I want to be sure we’re not quick to pull the trigger.
harkening - January 16, 2012
I just don't think it's necessary on a publicly available website to say "you can't vote here"
Polls are inherently pointless anyway, it’s not like it matters if a few Yankee fans come over and vote.
pdb - January 16, 2012
See above reply to seattlebruin.
We’re 95% in agreement.
harkening - January 16, 2012
If you post a poll on a Seattle Mariners fan website
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the outcome to be a somewhat accurate representation of the opinions of Seattle Mariners fans. 395 people (12%) “love it”, 1620 “like it”. Really? Does that sound right to you? Because I remember Michael Pineda being pretty darn good
SmoakyCokey - January 16, 2012
If I put actual stock or scientific weight into a random Internet poll I would probably agree with you
but to your larger point, maybe people like the return Pineda got in the trade?
pdb - January 16, 2012
I said I like it, does that mean there's something wrong with me?
It’s like you’re saying that a Mariners fan is wrong because he has a different opinion than you. The general percentage of the poll results don’t surprise me at all.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
I remember Jesus Montero being like your SN's namesake except with the ability to actually hit
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
Pretty sure Justin Smoak hit well in the minor leagues too bro
SmoakyCokey - January 16, 2012
Not your bro
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
ed's note: Graham, Aron, Robert, do not reply to this comment
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
Subscribed.
twelveoutof10 - January 16, 2012
Smoak was killing the ball until midway through May. =(
joof - January 16, 2012
I remember liking Jesus Montero more than Michael Pineda
Graham MacAree - January 16, 2012
I don't trust Pineda's ligaments to hold, and we have Hultzen/Walker/Paxton to replace Pineda rather quickly.
Also, hitting would be really, really nice.
joof - January 16, 2012
Is it the high usage of the slider that gives people injury concerns with Pineda or his delivery?
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Age + Velocity = Concern
Age + Velocity + Questionable use of innings limits in Yankee’s system = Fear
twelveoutof10 - January 16, 2012
The Yankees tend to baby their pitchers too much, not overuse them.
So that doesn’t really give me much fear. I don’t fully buy into the whole “inverted W” of death, since plenty of pitchers have used that motion without problems.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
He missed almost all of the season two years ago with an elbow injury.
joof - January 16, 2012
I saw this, it was a ligament sprain if I read correctly.
Now this is the only injury related news I could find on him. Was there more than this or is this all there was? One elbow sprain with no structural damage I won’t worry about, multiple injuries and I’ll start to concentrate more on it.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
He's been a bit nicked up for a significant portion of his minor league career
nothing major or red flagish, just lots of random stuff and him being a pitcher is really the injury concern, with “being a pitcher” being the big one
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
Well like they say there's no such thing as a pitching prospect.
I said somewhere on here that I believe Montero is more the sure bet, because I believe his bat will play and play big, but Pineda has the higher upside. At least to the Yankees anyway. A really good, young number 2 or possible ace is just something you have to take a risk on if you’re the Yankees.
I imagine it’s a similar situation with the Mariners and Montero being a catcher. You have to take a risk on him simply being a DH because the bat is something you just don’t come across often enough to pass up.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Neither really
much more about his injury history and the sheer fact that he’s a pitcher
seattlebruin - January 16, 2012
I thought that most trades were subject to physicals and LL poll results.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
Turn your head and cough
pdb - January 16, 2012
From what I've seen
At least half the Yankees fans freaking hate this trade.
Everybody is always in love with their own prospects.
J0SER - January 16, 2012
It might be more than half.
I’m really shocked by the amount of hate this trade is getting from the Yankee side. Though I guess I shouldn’t be at this point. All anyone from our side has done for 2 years is turn Montero into the next coming of Edgar Martinez or Miguel Cabrera.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
Disliking the trade on our side is an unpopular opinion, to be sure.
There was certainly a lot of overreaction and anger at first, which seems to have calmed down a bit to just disappointment and sadness. I’d say the majority, at least of the ones who are vocal, of PSA loves the trade.
WhatwouldJeterdo - January 16, 2012
The poll question literally asks:
So, yes, Yankees fans (if any) please do not vote.
Matthew - January 16, 2012
I get that but I'm not sure that the results are that far out of line with what I would expect from Mariners fans that frequent LL
pdb - January 16, 2012
Maybe, maybe not.
But that’s not the point.
Matthew - January 16, 2012
Initially I was neutral, but now I'm starting to like this.
Honestly, Dave’s piece on Noesi on USSM went a long way toward helping me see this a net positive for the organization. That, combined with the notion that Montero might catch a not-insignificant number of games for us. It’s still tough to part with Pineda, even though I believe that it’s more likely than not that Pineda’s already reached his peak value.
VivaAyala - January 16, 2012
Not a huge fan of the trade.
I’m philosophically okay with trading Pineda for a bat, but with his “proven” performance at the MLB level and Montero’s lack of it, not to mention Campos’ upside vis a vis Noesi’s might-be-might-not-be middle starter projections…
I would have liked to sell high on Pineda. I feel like we sold at best market value if not a little below. And really, is Montero going to offer significantly more offensive upside in one full season than Mike Carp or a full year of Justin Smoak? Especially if he’s not catching and we have to put up with Olivo?
Augh.
harkening - January 16, 2012
Jaso will likely be the more regular catcher than Olivo
Or, at least, one can hope.
cwel87 - January 16, 2012
I HATE the term "proven" in sports discussions.
You know who else like “proven” players, right?
rtang - January 16, 2012
There's a difference between Jose Vidro being proven and Michael Pineda being proven
cwel87 - January 16, 2012
Yeah...
….but I’m not confident other people know the difference.
rtang - January 16, 2012
Or Rich Aurilia, or Brad Wilkerson, or Eric Byrnes, or Milton :( or Jack Cust or...
JY - January 16, 2012
It's almost like I put air quotes around "proven" for a reason.
harkening - January 16, 2012
I fucking love this trade
I’ve seen enough pitching and not enough offense from this team. We have far better pitching depth and nothing mind blowing offensively.
OceanBird - January 16, 2012
The one thing that gives me pause with this trade
Is that it doesn’t look like quite the haul the Reds gave up to get Latos. If we assume the M’s will be taking 2012 to rebuild rather than contend (they’re better now than they were last week, yes, but realistically they’re still third in the division), I kind of would rather see more good-to-great pieces rather than one must-not-fail one. And especially one that might end up as just a DH.
Alonso, Grandal, Boxberger and Volquez just seems like a better return for a pitcher who, while more “proven,” isn’t really any better than Pineda (and that’s before you toss in Campos). In fact with Pineda on the block, perhaps you could sub Mesoraco for Grandal and leave Campos out of it altogether.
But maybe Jack talked to the Reds about Pineda before the Latos trade and they weren’t interested, or weren’t willing to give up so much for a guy with just one year of MLB experience (however good it might have been.)
J0SER - January 16, 2012
To me, comparing it to another trade just feels like saying, "But Mom, why does he get a lollipop and I dont?!"
I do NOT mean that to come off as dickish, it’s just that… we didn’t get that deal. We got this deal. If there was an opportunity for Jack to trade Pineda/Campos for Mesoraco (a real catcher) and Grandal (who is not nearly the hitting prospect that Montero is) plus Volquez (who is probably more talented than Noesi) then I feel he would have done it. If he had the opportunity. Which tells me that for whatever reason, he didn’t. I would just assume that if Jack was willing to trade Micheal Pineda, he didn’t take the first offer given. He seems smart enough to me to have shopped around and found that the best hitter he could get was Jesus Montero, so he took it. He’s clearly a guy that Jack has wanted for awhile now (if we believe the Cliff Lee rumors, of which I have no doubt about anymore) and he got him.
I will try not to judge this young pitcher trade against other young pitcher trades and just take it for what it is. I happen to like it, but I completely see the argument against it or in the neutral zone.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
Yeah, I realize all that
It could be the Reds just weren’t interested at any non-insulting price. And baseball hypotheticals are a swamp at the best of times. Ultimately the way I’ll feel about the trade is going to depend on how Montero and Noesi do — because I’m an M’s fan, and they’re on the team — and actually very little on Pineda and (especially) Campos do, if for no other reason than by the time Campos reaches the majors I’ll have forgotten he was ever in the M’s system. (David Arias who?) And I’ll certainly have forgotten the Latos trade.
But in the moment, you can’t help but look around and see what else is happening this offseason. It’s like gauging the market for free agents based on what a win is going for in any given winter. It’s an interesting point of comparison.
J0SER - January 16, 2012
In that regard, you and I couldn't be more on the same page.
At this point, I could care less what Pineda does in New York. And I DO mean, I could care less… just not much less. This is about Montero and Noesi now.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
Montero's bat alone seems better than any of the prospects in the Latos trade
but I agree that deal certainly would seem like a bigger overall haul. Especially when you take into account Montero has no “real” position.
I’ve actually seen some (including Mike Axisa) argue that Latos is by far the better pitcher of the two and I just don’t see that. I really wanted the Yankees to trade for Latos, and he is more prove, but in terms of talent I think Pineda is clearly the pitcher with more potential.
Chris Hines - January 16, 2012
I think I like Devin Mesoraco more than Montero, but only because he's a definite catcher. Definitely believe that Montero has the only elite bat out of all those guys.
Kenneth Arthur - January 16, 2012
I feel like this is a situation where Jack identified a need and wanted to address that need
I’m fine with a two-for-two swap if Zduriencik feels that strongly in Montero’s bat. The part most aren’t fully taking into consideration is that none of Latos’ return is of the quality that Montero is considered to be. I’d rather get one potentially premier player than two or three potential role-players/solid contributors in any trade, as would most people – roster flexibility is important.
cwel87 - January 16, 2012
Grant Brisbee actually wrote an article about this today.
Here’s the link.
I can’t wait for the Giants series this year just for the interaction between Jeff and Grant throughout the entire thing.
Cascadian Man - January 16, 2012
Grant Brisbee made an Arquimedez Pozo reference.
<3
JY - January 16, 2012
I had to go read that just just to find out how he worked Mr. Pozo into the discussion of this trade.
Marc Newfield too! A Daily Double!
nathaniel dawson - January 16, 2012
Ewww public displays of affection are gross
Kermit. - January 16, 2012
Neutral, leaning towards like.
For me, it depends a lot on how Noesi pans out.
Benne - January 16, 2012
Like, leaning toward love.
I loved Pineda (note the past tense, which happened without me thinking about it) but also am a big Montero fan. No matter what we think of it now, we won’t really know until the games start, or even the end of the season. But I think there’s a lot of upside here. Pitchers and catchers report Feb. 12 — less than a month!
extavernmouse - January 16, 2012
I liked it. I disagree when anyone who complains that we didn't "sell high" on Pineda.
He had a stellar rookie season. His value was sky-high—we got one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball, which in itself speaks volumes to how high his value was. We couldn’t conceivably sell any higher than we did.
The team desperately needed hitting. We got one of the best hitting prospects in the game, who could be a lineup anchor for the better part of a decade. Sky-high potential. MVP potential (I’m not talking “likely” I’m talking “potential”).
The M’s—hell, most teams—don’t have anybody in the system with a ceiling anywhere NEAR what Montero’s is. Even if he busts or Pineda wins Cy Youngs, I think a similar deal needed to happen. I like it.
HititHere - January 16, 2012
I'm pretty sure I can conceive of a way we could have sold higher.
Mothy - January 16, 2012
I guess I could too, but not realistically.
It might have been higher halfway through last year. But his value was still through the roof, and it’s much easier to imagine his value falling, rather than increasing.
HititHere - January 16, 2012
Denial. Anger. Bargaining. Depression. Acceptance.
I haven’t gotten to the last stage yet.
nathaniel dawson - January 16, 2012
so 1/3 of our lineup are potential all stars with the bat
I now think that we can assemble elite glovemen in the OF and the left side of the IF. I dont necessarily know if this makes us better, but in the future it makes the rest of the team easy to fill out with pieces jack Z knows how to assemble ala the 08 season.
dougstrangerthanfiction - January 16, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Lookout Landing to post a comment.