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A Rudimentary Evaluation of Dan Wilson's Catcher Defense

When the Mariners announced that Randy Johnson and Dan Wilson were to be inducted into the Mariners' version of the Hall of Fame most of the attention shined on Randy Johnson, including here. Of course it did. Randy Johnson is one of the most talented people to have ever lucked into a professional career pitching baseballs. Dan Wilson had over half his career plate appearances come from the eighth spot in the batting order. Dan Wilson was not a good hitter, or even an average one. He was a catcher though and our bar for catchers is lower and Wilson made a name for himself by catching for quite a while, mostly with Seattle. He also was well-liked and had the good fortune to be associated with a relatively prosperous time in Mariner history. In games Wilson started for them, the Mariners went 615-539, a .533 winning percentage or 86-win pace over a full season.

Those are reasons that probably have a weighty effect on Wilson's lasting notoriety, but he also carried with him a reputation for good defense. The former hockey goalie at Barrington High (also the alma mater of current Ottawa Senators starting goalie Craig Anderson) was renowned for his movement behind the dish enabling him to routinely block wayward pitches in the dirt.

Wilson MLB
WP+PB (per 1,000IP) 35 45
Run Value -9.4 -12.1
League data covering 1994-2004

Wilson comes out comfortably better than league average in preventing wild pitches and passed balls, which supports the belief in his goalie skills.

Catcher's defense is a mostly blank map at this time. We have a notion of where the important features lay, but we don't really know the size of the map. Does a catcher's rapport with his pitchers improve them? How much scouting on the opposing hitter's does the catcher do and does that matter? There's many unanswered and unknown questions surrounding the issue that over time could change, perhaps dramatically, how we view the position. It's a Scooby-Doo mystery except with more masks and fewer giant sandwiches.

Pitch framing is one area where the obscurity is just beginning to clear. It would be stellar to be able to go back and evaluate old catchers with our new methods but alas we do not have access to a machine that can travel back — or forward fast enough, if time is actually circular — in time to install pitch F/X. And even if we did have such a device, gathering more baseball data might not be feasible since people always commandeer it to commit retro murder. SilverFox316 is seriously tired of this, guys. Read the damn bulletin!

Absent the pitch F/X data, I can make no numerical study of Dan Wilson's skill at framing pitches. My hunch is that he would grade out well. In the very limited archival video footage that I have on hand, Wilson displays a steady glove and head while catching. Those are two big indicators that Mike Fast discovered can coax strike calls from umpires. Nevertheless, while I know framing matters a great deal when judging a catcher, I unfortunately cannot color in these lines on Wilson. I know it's there but it's obscured by fog.

We can make a statement on the territory of stolen bases and nabbed runners though and again Wilson comes out ahead of the rest of baseball.

Wilson MLB
Attempts (per 1000IP) 91 104
Kill Rate (per attempt) 34% 31%
Run Value +1.3 -0.2
League data covering 1994-2004

Wilson gunned down an above average share of runners but also faced far fewer steal attempts than average. Whether that was 100% because of Wilson, 100% because of reasons that were not Dan Wilson, or (likely) somewhere in between is impossible to say. It doesn't end up affecting Wilson's value much since his caught stealing rate is near the point where attempting a stolen base was a neutral move from a run expectancy perspective.

Granted this is only a faint whiff of the full scratch-n-sniff experience that probably is catcher defense, but from the two measures I do have readily available, Wilson does end up being worth about five runs better than average for each 1,000 innings caught. That doesn't transform him into a secretly excellent player or anything. These two areas are already captured by BRef and FanGraphs in their WAR calculations. Personally though, I'm glad to know that at least for now, a man who I remembered as being a stalwart at defense, actually was.

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Comments

Two seasons ago

Craig Anderson was involved in one of the best 1-0 hockey games I’ve ever seen, blanking the Sharks (for Colorado) in a playoff game. He stopped 51 shots. Sharks defenseman Dan Boyle was prominently involved in the outcome. Anderson will be hard-pressed to ever top that performance.

As for Dan Wilson… in the years after his All-Star appearance, I was always wishing he was a better hitter. Then the whole Ben Davis thing didn’t work out. Then I slowly realized that having a light-hitting, awesome defensive catcher is way better than having a catcher that can’t catch or hit (Rob Johnson, Miguel Olivo to a lesser extent with the bat). Actually, I realized that a lot quicker after Kenji Johjima fell off the cliff.

Best, ending, ever.

Haha, sharks

Seeing the Sharks lose

never hurts my feelings.

Remember how Johjima fell off the cliff, THEN we re-signed him for 3y/$25m?

Good times, Bavasi. Good times.

(It could have been mandated by the big guns over in Japan that we re-sign Johjima, so this is me blaming Bavasi for something that made no sense and has a greater-than-zero possibility of not being his fault at all – but fuck it, there was enough that was entirely his fault and made no sense, so enjoy the blame!)

I just read somewhere that Yamauchi has never been to a Mariners game

Which completely surprised me.

It's pretty public knowledge that he hasn't. I've used it in research papers before.
He is an elderly man, living in Japan.

I’m guessing he attends the games when they get to Japan this spring.

Yeah I'm sure.

For me it’s more surprising in the “love traveling and spending time in Seattle and always have a blast at M’s games” way. Guy is missing out :(

The one catching test Dan Wilson absolutely passed

was the “eye” test. Your eyes told you he was good just watching him work behind the plate. Without looking it up (I’m incredibly lazy) I’d be willing to bet that Miguel Olivo already has at least double the passed balls that Wilson had in his whole career. Not a big bet, but you get my drift. That’s what makes watching Olivo so painful. I remember Wilson .No way Olivo could have handled “Mr. Snappy.”

Just for the hell of it, I did look it up. Dan Wilson had 42 passed balls for his career.

Miguel Olivo has 91. He had 11 last year, and 25 total for his Mariner career.

He always passed my mom's eye test.
Dan Wilson will be speaking at the University of Portland on Feb 11th

I don’t know if many people here live near Portland but Dan Wilson is speaking at a fundraiser for the UP Baseball team. I think it’s a pretty cool opportunity for those who can take advantage of it. LINK

Holy shit I go to University of Portland.

No way I’m paying $50 for a dinner ticket though.

I'm kinda surprised they didn't get Tom Lampkin or Bill Krueger.

But I think I’d rather listen to Dan Wilson than either of them, so I guess it makes sense.

My question regarding Dan

Is did he ever hit a homerun out to dead center field? I can’t ever remember him doing that. I still enjoyed his play but was always intrigued by a professional baseball player who didn’t appear capable of hitting the ball 400 ft.

I was at the Detroit game

where he hit the inside-the-park grand slam. Sitting in the right field bleachers I thought the ball was out. Couldn’t believe it when they sent him around third to try for the inside-the-park homer. Place went nuts.

But you’re right. The ball didn’t go 400 feet. 400 feet at The Dome isn’t quite the same as 400 feet at The Safe. Like Einstein said; it’s relative.

Call me stupid

but what is meant by this:

It doesn’t end up affecting Wilson’s value much since his caught stealing rate is near the point where attempting a stolen base was a neutral move from a run expectancy perspective.

If more people attempted to steal, it wouldn't have mattered assuming that their success rate stayed constant.

Did that help?

And less attempts were most likely due to

his ability to throw them out.

The insufferable fog

that is my brain has cleared somewhat. Much thanks!

Dan hit .295 in 2002

He batted .262 in 12 seasons with the Mariners. Pretty decent hitting, especially compared to out current offense.

If you set the bar any lower it would be underground

Russ Davis had pretty decent hitting compared to our current offense

Out of curiosity,

who is considered to be the better catcher, Dan Wilson or Dave Valle? I’m guessing by the stats that Wilson was the better bat, but how good was Valle behind the plate?

I assume that it's safe to infer that catchers have the majority of control over WP/PB

…or that over a large enough sample, any pitcher responsibility to that (e.g. Randy Johnson) is within the margin of error. Or over a large enough sample, the pitchers that are so wild that catchers have a hard time with them, don’t last long in the majors.

Which makes me wonder why there’s a distinction between WP and PB in the first place.

I don't think you can entirely eliminate pitchers.

There are certainly pitchers who stay in the majors despite some wildness and especially difficulty for a catcher. For instance, knuckleballers. I imagine Wakefield isn’t much fun to catch. Also, guys with big curveballs that may or may not break properly. There are lots of pitchers who may bounce the ball off the plate several times in a game.

Now, if you average out catching duty across five starters and a bunch of relievers, it probably evens out fairly well. But for individual pitcher/catcher combinations I think the wild pitch/passed ball distinction is worth considering (if it were fairly and consistently called).

That consistently called thing on WP vs. PB

Not sure how to account for it. Might be another thing that normalizes with a large enough sample. But if it’s left up to the judgement of 30 different official scorers and varies by park and pitcher/catcher combo, meh.

It is up to the official scorer.

Generally, if the ball hits the dirt it’s going to be called wild pitch. If it’s over the catcher’s head it’s going to be a wild pitch. If the pitch goes off the catcher’s glove it’s going to be a passed ball. The one thing that’s really variable is when the catcher gets crossed up or the pitch just doesn’t break when expected. The catcher may move quickly enough to get his glove on it but not catch it.

No one will downgrade a catcher’s defense for passed balls when catching a knuckleball pitcher. The pitcher doesn’t even know where it’s going, let alone the catcher. The ball travels so slowly it’s easy to steal. Everything about a knuckleball is bad from a catching perspective.

sorry

that was supposed to be a reply to Chris_FB not a new comment

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