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Lookout Landing

The Mariners Lack Depth

The addition of Jesus Montero has a lot of people thinking positive thoughts about the top of the Mariners line up this coming season. Having Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero and (healthy) Justin Smoak in the middle is actually exciting. A reinvigorated Ichiro Suzuki at the very top would be stellar as well as would a back-to-2009 strengthened Franklin Gutierrez. A Casper Wells and Mike Carp platoon in left field would be fun too if their 2011s continue. And, hell, why not have Montero as the primary catcher and rope in Prince Fielder to DH? Imagine that batting order were things to break right. Instead of worst in baseball, that could be legitimately threatening!

That's the optimism for 2012 and that's great. I don't like writing pessimistic posts. Doing so could have use if there was a means of inspiring people to focus on something and change course like with yesterday's quite effective SOPA awareness campaign, but when it comes to the Mariners and baseball, we are mostly all collectively passive onlookers. For instance, I don't think a fan effort to have the team spend more money on payroll would accomplish anything. Lacking a potential positive outcome makes me want to avoid negative topics. Since baseball is an entertaining diversion, I prefer to not dwell on depressing* characteristics of the team unless there's a way to poke fun at them or perhaps if I find them noteworthy in some way.

*Note, only depressing if you care way too much.

But my thoughts today turned to the pessimistic. Looking at the Mariners current roster and minor league starters, it struck me how little MLB-quality depth there is on the hitting side. Specifically, I was examining backup starters in case of a major injury at some positions and I got that "uh oh" feeling when I began outlining it. Taking Montero, Smoak, Ackley, Brendan Ryan, Kyle Seager, Wells, Gutierrez, Ichiro and Carp as the nominal starters, what players are around to step up in case of a prolonged absence? There's Miguel Olivo and John Jaso at catcher. That's legitimate insurance there. Outside that position though it's (pause) yeah. Luis Rodriguez and Munenori Kawasaki are the middle infielders. Chone Figgins is remarkably still on this team and Alex Liddi might also be there at third base. There's a lagan of outfielders in Carlos Peguero, Michael Saunders, Darren Ford and Trayvon Robinson, but counting on them is troubling.

No doubt that there are better prospects on the way. The Mariners in A and AA-ball hold some promise and many of the regulars on the Major League team are quite young so come 2013, the depth chart should probably be far improved. And no doubt that 2012 is probably not the Mariners' year, solid bench or not. But if the team craters again this season though, I imagine that the bench having to shoulder too much of a burden will play a role.

1 recs  |  85 comments

Comments

Seager, Liddi, Peguero and Robinson are "young"...

so they might still get “better”. But I’m not sold on Seager/Liddi/Figgins at 3B.

Seager might become a serviceable glove-first 3b

But yeah, it’s unfortunate that there’s no good third basemen to target in free agency or trade this offseason. Finding such would be a great finishing move after the pieces Z has gotten so far.

How serious are the Mets about re-signing David Wright?

Just for future (2013) consideration. Although I’m not sure how great of a fit Wright would be in Safeco.

I always imagined Seager's ceiling as a David Bell type player.

His biggest flaw right now is hitting lefties

I'd like to see the M's target a blocked 3B prospect in trade for that very reason.

Someone like Matt Dominguez of the Marlins or Mike Olt of the Rangers. The only 3B remotely close to free agency who I would want the Mariners to sign is Ryan Zimmerman, and it’s starting to look like he’ll get an extension.

If it's offense that you want, you probably don't want Matt Dominguez
I would like Todd Frazier.
Why?
I'd trade to snake Taylor Green from the Brewers as he's now blocked by Aramis Ramirez.

As pictured here on Statcorner

Wow, that's impressive.

Getting a 3B would allow Seager to become the utility infielder, too, which would be pretty good for the bench.

~120 RC+ throughout the minor leagues, ~100 RC+ with unsustainably low BABIP in the majors.

Good power, acceptable K-rate, seems to have fallen out of favor as a prospect with the Reds, blocked at most positions and considered a backup outfielder now despite being a 3rd baseman, and as far as I can tell it’s not because he has defensive problems.

I do like Taylor Green though.

Matt Dominguez is such an overrated scrub

and sadly I think he’s the only 3B prospect above AA ball.

That's the tact I was looking for.
As in, prove that he's enough of an upgrade over Seager with upside to justify giving something up for him.
This was meant for CapSea RE: Frazier
Isn't Seager's best tool his hit tool?
There is no room for facts in the world of making things up
HEY THAT'S NOT nice.. um.. uh oh... hm. a retraction and revision there then

Your insult made me do a bit of googling and ok, I was wrong, he projects as being a decent hitter. Not necessarily 3b power (based off of scouting, not based off of the SSS of super short AA, AAA and Major League time to date). But plate discipline and good obp potential is there, and his defense is from being a decent athlete and not any mad skillz.

So yeah, it’s not accurate to think of Seager as glove first. I shouldn’t spread that bit of misinfomation. I will try to restrict my “making things up” to things like “it will snow in seattle forever” or “licorice is awesome”.

Actually his hit tool is pretty good

84.5% contact% tells me he’s making contact pretty often. That would place him in the 30-60 range contact% wise. In comparison, Ackley had a 84.1% contact%. They even have nearly the same o-swing%/swing% ratios, which means his eye isn’t too bad either.

If he can tap into just a little more power (I’m talking .160 ISO here) then he could be something like a Michael Young hitter wise, with less HR power.

Man, that's a really young potential starting lineup.

Ichiro is obviously the oldest, but then it drops off to Ryan at 29. Regardless of whether they have a good season or not, I’d much rather watch the young guys play instead of a bunch of boring veterans.

Yeah

We’re bad, not in a production kind-of-way (which we all know), but in a we-need-all-6-cylinders-of-our-180-hp-dodge-omni-hatchback-firing kind of way.

I like JackZ, but we’re in a situation where we need career years from multiple guys in a pitchers’ park to simply keep pace. Certainly makes it a challenge to view things in the light of “improvement”.

A 180-horsepower, six-cylinder Dodge Omni would actually be rather awesome.
No matter what my financial situation, I am buying the first decent condition Dodge Omni GLHS I find
Absolutely

I wanted to properly reflect the team’s upside in the analogy. 120hp, 4-banger seemed insufficient.

Hey, remember when Jack Hannahan was a Mariner?

Didn’t he go down with a groin injury in 2010 Spring Training and lose almost the entire season recovering?

I liked him.

But then….

Today I learned a new word: lagan
Interesting metaphor, that.
It's a brilliant metaphor.

I now imagine The Pile being at the bottom of Puget Sound, with bouys emblazoned with the Mariners logo bobbing on the waves above.

And you might be tempted to call the study of players of this caliber flotsametrics, but that’s already taken.

Me too!

Thanks Matthew.

Yeah, new one for me, too

Most “new words” for me are obscure ones I’ve heard before but never knew the meaning of until I finally get curious and look them up. Lagan, pretty sure I’ve never ever heard before.

I'd be satisfied with Peguero being a Wily Mo-esque back up for the OF.
But yes, our MLB level depth is horrendous.
Just remember...

…this year represents an IMPROVEMENT.

If Carlos Peguero gets more than, say, 50 PA this year I'll be immensely disappointed.
I would also like Carlos Peguero to go to Japan.
Close second behind have a really powery AAA season and get traded.
When he breaks camp with the team in time for the trip, I will blame you.
Can't be as bad as having Adam Kennedy bat in the clean-up spot last year!
...and Bradley batting 3rd.
And Figgins batting second.
.

And Figgins batting second.

The same could be said about the other two as well.
Milton Bradley had a slightly below league average wOBA in April and was trending up when he imploded (not statistically!) in May

and was cut in favor of Cust. We know how that worked out.

I wonder if this opens an opportunity

For us to trade Olivo to the Twins for Doumit.
There was some talk about the Twins being interested in trading for Olivo before they signed Doumit, he could get some time in the OF as well as serve as our third catcher behind Jaso and Montero, in case Jaso went down while Montero was DHing.
I’d certainly rather have his bat than Gimenez, and that might help shore up the backup starters a bit… maybe.

Can't trade newly signed free agents
Aww man.

Thanks for the info.

For how long?
4-6 weeks for shipping
It's a legitimate question

It can’t be forever that they can’t trade him.

I believe it's mid June.
At least we should be good on width
does anyone else have the irrational thought

that Travon Robinson may break out of the pile and force his way into the staring CF job this spring?

Wedge would probably love that
It's nice to have the occasional reminder that yes, it absolutely can get worse.
Does DTFT have all his limbs removed in this thought of yours?
Only if he went to Camp Guti over the off season.
Depth

Seth Smith, cuckoo for Coco Crisp,… Our depth is in Oakland.

Do you think they would take well to being called up to the M's?

We could arrange some revenue sharing between Tacoma and Oakland in exchange for the occasional use of Oakland’s outfielders and Eric Sogard.

Cue appearance by Eric Sogard novelty account in 3...2...1...
We should ask the Padres if they'd let us borrow the truck again.
Lagan

goods thrown into the sea with a buoy attached so that they may be found again

Not many baseball websites make me go to the dictionary.

It's like that word was defined with Mariners in mind
Yes we lack quality depth

But we also lack a lot of quality starters, so that is to be expected.

Besides, if our starters get injured or underperform then our season is over anyway.

Go youth!!!

The Prince Fielder discussion should kind of start up again.

Circumstances are quite different. These lineups look completely different.
Having a legit hitting catcher and clean up hitter behind Prince vastly improves the lookout for this team in 2012. Or even bat Montero 3rd and Prince cleanup for half a season so Montero gets to see some good pitches and develop into a MLB hitter.

Lineup A:
Ichiro
Ackley
Prince
Smoak
Carp/Wells
Seager
Ryan
Guti
Olivo

Lineup B:
Ichiro
Ackley
Prince
Montero
Smoak
Carp/Wells
Seager
Guti
Ryan

Given that fans talking about Prince would change nothing, dear god the conversations shouldn't start up again.
I'm with you. I'd be happy to never hear the name Prince Fielder for a long long time.
Ditto.
These lineups look almost completely the same.
Vinnie Catricala

Really surprised no one has mentioned his name. He should be major league ready very soon. Zips and Oliver consider him to be one the top hitters in the organization now.

Defensively, he’s a scrub, but he can stand in at left field, third base and first. Not bad depth to have. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him compete for a job out of spring training if the Mariners don’t acquire a right handed third baseman.

He's not on the 40-man and hasn't received a NRI.

It doesn’t seem particularly likely that he’ll compete that soon.

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