The addition of Jesus Montero has a lot of people thinking positive thoughts about the top of the Mariners line up this coming season. Having Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero and (healthy) Justin Smoak in the middle is actually exciting. A reinvigorated Ichiro Suzuki at the very top would be stellar as well as would a back-to-2009 strengthened Franklin Gutierrez. A Casper Wells and Mike Carp platoon in left field would be fun too if their 2011s continue. And, hell, why not have Montero as the primary catcher and rope in Prince Fielder to DH? Imagine that batting order were things to break right. Instead of worst in baseball, that could be legitimately threatening!
That's the optimism for 2012 and that's great. I don't like writing pessimistic posts. Doing so could have use if there was a means of inspiring people to focus on something and change course like with yesterday's quite effective SOPA awareness campaign, but when it comes to the Mariners and baseball, we are mostly all collectively passive onlookers. For instance, I don't think a fan effort to have the team spend more money on payroll would accomplish anything. Lacking a potential positive outcome makes me want to avoid negative topics. Since baseball is an entertaining diversion, I prefer to not dwell on depressing* characteristics of the team unless there's a way to poke fun at them or perhaps if I find them noteworthy in some way.
*Note, only depressing if you care way too much.
But my thoughts today turned to the pessimistic. Looking at the Mariners current roster and minor league starters, it struck me how little MLB-quality depth there is on the hitting side. Specifically, I was examining backup starters in case of a major injury at some positions and I got that "uh oh" feeling when I began outlining it. Taking Montero, Smoak, Ackley, Brendan Ryan, Kyle Seager, Wells, Gutierrez, Ichiro and Carp as the nominal starters, what players are around to step up in case of a prolonged absence? There's Miguel Olivo and John Jaso at catcher. That's legitimate insurance there. Outside that position though it's (pause) yeah. Luis Rodriguez and Munenori Kawasaki are the middle infielders. Chone Figgins is remarkably still on this team and Alex Liddi might also be there at third base. There's a lagan of outfielders in Carlos Peguero, Michael Saunders, Darren Ford and Trayvon Robinson, but counting on them is troubling.
No doubt that there are better prospects on the way. The Mariners in A and AA-ball hold some promise and many of the regulars on the Major League team are quite young so come 2013, the depth chart should probably be far improved. And no doubt that 2012 is probably not the Mariners' year, solid bench or not. But if the team craters again this season though, I imagine that the bench having to shoulder too much of a burden will play a role.
1 recs | 85 comments
Seager, Liddi, Peguero and Robinson are "young"...
so they might still get “better”. But I’m not sold on Seager/Liddi/Figgins at 3B.
tomtuttle - January 19, 2012
Seager might become a serviceable glove-first 3b
But yeah, it’s unfortunate that there’s no good third basemen to target in free agency or trade this offseason. Finding such would be a great finishing move after the pieces Z has gotten so far.
Chris_FB - January 19, 2012
How serious are the Mets about re-signing David Wright?
Just for future (2013) consideration. Although I’m not sure how great of a fit Wright would be in Safeco.
EthanN - January 19, 2012
I always imagined Seager's ceiling as a David Bell type player.
His biggest flaw right now is hitting lefties
BaronVonBullshit - January 19, 2012
I'd like to see the M's target a blocked 3B prospect in trade for that very reason.
Someone like Matt Dominguez of the Marlins or Mike Olt of the Rangers. The only 3B remotely close to free agency who I would want the Mariners to sign is Ryan Zimmerman, and it’s starting to look like he’ll get an extension.
WhyGodWhy - January 19, 2012
If it's offense that you want, you probably don't want Matt Dominguez
abender20 - January 19, 2012
I would like Todd Frazier.
CapSea - January 19, 2012
Why?
abender20 - January 19, 2012
I'd trade to snake Taylor Green from the Brewers as he's now blocked by Aramis Ramirez.
As pictured here on Statcorner
abender20 - January 19, 2012
Samesies
MilesC - January 19, 2012
Wow, that's impressive.
Getting a 3B would allow Seager to become the utility infielder, too, which would be pretty good for the bench.
ThirteenOfTwo - January 19, 2012
~120 RC+ throughout the minor leagues, ~100 RC+ with unsustainably low BABIP in the majors.
Good power, acceptable K-rate, seems to have fallen out of favor as a prospect with the Reds, blocked at most positions and considered a backup outfielder now despite being a 3rd baseman, and as far as I can tell it’s not because he has defensive problems.
I do like Taylor Green though.
CapSea - January 20, 2012
Matt Dominguez is such an overrated scrub
and sadly I think he’s the only 3B prospect above AA ball.
valencia - January 19, 2012
That's the tact I was looking for.
abender20 - January 19, 2012
As in, prove that he's enough of an upgrade over Seager with upside to justify giving something up for him.
abender20 - January 19, 2012
This was meant for CapSea RE: Frazier
abender20 - January 19, 2012
Isn't Seager's best tool his hit tool?
seattlebruin - January 19, 2012
There is no room for facts in the world of making things up
abender20 - January 19, 2012
HEY THAT'S NOT nice.. um.. uh oh... hm. a retraction and revision there then
Your insult made me do a bit of googling and ok, I was wrong, he projects as being a decent hitter. Not necessarily 3b power (based off of scouting, not based off of the SSS of super short AA, AAA and Major League time to date). But plate discipline and good obp potential is there, and his defense is from being a decent athlete and not any mad skillz.
So yeah, it’s not accurate to think of Seager as glove first. I shouldn’t spread that bit of misinfomation. I will try to restrict my “making things up” to things like “it will snow in seattle forever” or “licorice is awesome”.
Chris_FB - January 19, 2012 via mobile
Actually his hit tool is pretty good
84.5% contact% tells me he’s making contact pretty often. That would place him in the 30-60 range contact% wise. In comparison, Ackley had a 84.1% contact%. They even have nearly the same o-swing%/swing% ratios, which means his eye isn’t too bad either.
If he can tap into just a little more power (I’m talking .160 ISO here) then he could be something like a Michael Young hitter wise, with less HR power.
valencia - January 19, 2012
Man, that's a really young potential starting lineup.
Ichiro is obviously the oldest, but then it drops off to Ryan at 29. Regardless of whether they have a good season or not, I’d much rather watch the young guys play instead of a bunch of boring veterans.
ScottBrowne - January 19, 2012
Yeah
We’re bad, not in a production kind-of-way (which we all know), but in a we-need-all-6-cylinders-of-our-180-hp-dodge-omni-hatchback-firing kind of way.
I like JackZ, but we’re in a situation where we need career years from multiple guys in a pitchers’ park to simply keep pace. Certainly makes it a challenge to view things in the light of “improvement”.
Mariners_win - January 19, 2012
A 180-horsepower, six-cylinder Dodge Omni would actually be rather awesome.
Chris Hafner - January 19, 2012
No matter what my financial situation, I am buying the first decent condition Dodge Omni GLHS I find
Corco - January 19, 2012
Absolutely
I wanted to properly reflect the team’s upside in the analogy. 120hp, 4-banger seemed insufficient.
Mariners_win - January 20, 2012
Hey, remember when Jack Hannahan was a Mariner?
Didn’t he go down with a groin injury in 2010 Spring Training and lose almost the entire season recovering?
Kermit. - January 19, 2012
I liked him.
But then….
ignacio - January 20, 2012
Today I learned a new word: lagan
Chris_FB - January 19, 2012
Interesting metaphor, that.
The Ancient Mariner - January 19, 2012
It's a brilliant metaphor.
I now imagine The Pile being at the bottom of Puget Sound, with bouys emblazoned with the Mariners logo bobbing on the waves above.
And you might be tempted to call the study of players of this caliber flotsametrics, but that’s already taken.
MMonkman - January 19, 2012
Me too!
Thanks Matthew.
appleshampoo - January 19, 2012
Ditto
Paytheline - January 19, 2012
Yeah, new one for me, too
Most “new words” for me are obscure ones I’ve heard before but never knew the meaning of until I finally get curious and look them up. Lagan, pretty sure I’ve never ever heard before.
nathaniel dawson - January 21, 2012
I'd be satisfied with Peguero being a Wily Mo-esque back up for the OF.
Cascadian Man - January 19, 2012
But yes, our MLB level depth is horrendous.
Cascadian Man - January 19, 2012
Just remember...
…this year represents an IMPROVEMENT.
rtang - January 19, 2012
If Carlos Peguero gets more than, say, 50 PA this year I'll be immensely disappointed.
abender20 - January 19, 2012
I would also like Carlos Peguero to go to Japan.
CapSea - January 19, 2012
Close second behind have a really powery AAA season and get traded.
abender20 - January 19, 2012
When he breaks camp with the team in time for the trip, I will blame you.
perfectstrat - January 19, 2012
Can't be as bad as having Adam Kennedy bat in the clean-up spot last year!
ThundaPC - January 19, 2012
...and Bradley batting 3rd.
EthanN - January 19, 2012
And Figgins batting second.
InSpokane - January 19, 2012
.
And Figgins batting
second.EequalsMc2 - January 19, 2012
The same could be said about the other two as well.
InSpokane - January 19, 2012
Milton Bradley had a slightly below league average wOBA in April and was trending up when he imploded (not statistically!) in May
and was cut in favor of Cust. We know how that worked out.
harkening - January 20, 2012
I wonder if this opens an opportunity
For us to trade Olivo to the Twins for Doumit.
There was some talk about the Twins being interested in trading for Olivo before they signed Doumit, he could get some time in the OF as well as serve as our third catcher behind Jaso and Montero, in case Jaso went down while Montero was DHing.
I’d certainly rather have his bat than Gimenez, and that might help shore up the backup starters a bit… maybe.
Aussie Mariner - January 19, 2012
Can't trade newly signed free agents
Matthew - January 19, 2012
Aww man.
Thanks for the info.
Aussie Mariner - January 19, 2012
For how long?
Aly Edge - January 19, 2012
4-6 weeks for shipping
seattlebruin - January 19, 2012
It's a legitimate question
It can’t be forever that they can’t trade him.
Aly Edge - January 19, 2012
I believe it's mid June.
xmet - January 20, 2012
At least we should be good on width
Punkhazard - January 19, 2012
does anyone else have the irrational thought
that Travon Robinson may break out of the pile and force his way into the staring CF job this spring?
dougstrangerthanfiction - January 19, 2012
Wedge would probably love that
Kermit. - January 19, 2012
It's nice to have the occasional reminder that yes, it absolutely can get worse.
the other side - January 19, 2012
Does DTFT have all his limbs removed in this thought of yours?
Patrick Stites - January 19, 2012
Only if he went to Camp Guti over the off season.
Zewerr - January 19, 2012
He's really not very good
All MLB hitters from 2011, minimum 100 PA, sorted by contact rate:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=5&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&sort=7,a
All the guys with the worst contact rates in baseball have one of two things in common – crazy power (Branyan, Reynolds, Pena, Reynolds, Stanton, etc…) or they play catcher (Shoppach, Flowers, Olivo). Well, everyone but one guy – Robinson – who stands out like a sore thumb among that group.
Robinson makes contact like a power hitter, but he doesn’t hit for power like a power hitter. That’s an atrocious combination, and it’s not anything knew – his minor league track record supports the idea that he just can’t put the bat on the ball often enough to be a useful player.
If he was a great defensive OF, he’d have a chance to have a decent career as a back-up CF and pinch-runner. He’s not, though. In reality, he’s more like the poor man’s Felix Pie.
davidcameron - January 19, 2012
I this all makes a lot of since, but it makes me sad.
InSpokane - January 19, 2012
Oh... ok.
BigR - January 20, 2012
Great, now I'm hungry for pie.
Thanks.
Smegmalicious - January 19, 2012
Poor man's Felix Pie is the saddest label a baseball player can attain.
abender20 - January 20, 2012
At least Trayvon is also a cool name
Poochie - January 20, 2012
Poor Man's Jose Lopez.
joof - January 20, 2012
Poor mans Carlos Peguero?
InSpokane - January 20, 2012
I, too, want Anthony Rendon.
harkening - January 20, 2012
Dang.
I was under the impression Trayvon had a chance to emerge as sonething useful.
Fearless Frog - January 21, 2012 via mobile
Well he does have a chance.
It just doesn’t seem like a particularly good one.
Aussie Mariner - January 22, 2012
Depth
Seth Smith, cuckoo for Coco Crisp,… Our depth is in Oakland.
bookbook - January 20, 2012
Do you think they would take well to being called up to the M's?
We could arrange some revenue sharing between Tacoma and Oakland in exchange for the occasional use of Oakland’s outfielders and Eric Sogard.
goyo70 - January 20, 2012
Cue appearance by Eric Sogard novelty account in 3...2...1...
Chris_FB - January 20, 2012
We should ask the Padres if they'd let us borrow the truck again.
Paul AB - January 20, 2012
Lagan
goods thrown into the sea with a buoy attached so that they may be found again
Not many baseball websites make me go to the dictionary.
nwbb - January 20, 2012
It's like that word was defined with Mariners in mind
Matthew - January 20, 2012
Yes we lack quality depth
But we also lack a lot of quality starters, so that is to be expected.
Besides, if our starters get injured or underperform then our season is over anyway.
Go youth!!!
briwas101 - January 20, 2012 via mobile
The Prince Fielder discussion should kind of start up again.
Circumstances are quite different. These lineups look completely different.
Having a legit hitting catcher and clean up hitter behind Prince vastly improves the lookout for this team in 2012. Or even bat Montero 3rd and Prince cleanup for half a season so Montero gets to see some good pitches and develop into a MLB hitter.
Lineup A:
Ichiro
Ackley
Prince
Smoak
Carp/Wells
Seager
Ryan
Guti
Olivo
Lineup B:
Ichiro
Ackley
Prince
Montero
Smoak
Carp/Wells
Seager
Guti
Ryan
jakersterling - January 20, 2012
Given that fans talking about Prince would change nothing, dear god the conversations shouldn't start up again.
yuniform - January 20, 2012 via Android app
I'm with you. I'd be happy to never hear the name Prince Fielder for a long long time.
InSpokane - January 20, 2012
Ditto.
mebpenguin - January 20, 2012 via iPhone app
I'm glad a comment of this quality takes up half the screen
Poochie - January 20, 2012
These lineups look almost completely the same.
ThundaPC - January 20, 2012
Vinnie Catricala
Really surprised no one has mentioned his name. He should be major league ready very soon. Zips and Oliver consider him to be one the top hitters in the organization now.
Defensively, he’s a scrub, but he can stand in at left field, third base and first. Not bad depth to have. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him compete for a job out of spring training if the Mariners don’t acquire a right handed third baseman.
bbd1996 - January 22, 2012 via mobile
He's not on the 40-man and hasn't received a NRI.
It doesn’t seem particularly likely that he’ll compete that soon.
JY - January 22, 2012
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