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Lookout Landing

Nautical Twilight

In the middle of blinking

Shizuo Kambayashi - AP

In the middle of blinking

Lookout Landing was quiet today, but it wasn't quiet due to anything worrisome, or out of some sort of protest. Rather, it was quiet because Matthew's out of town and I was invited to attend the Mariners' annual pre-spring training conference and luncheon. I considered it something of an honor. Then I parked without getting ID'd. Then I entered without getting ID'd. Then I helped myself to lunch without getting ID'd. So it turns out today's event was effectively open to anyone from the president to the homeless.

You've probably already read about what was discussed. Larry Stone posted his coverage. Shannon Drayer posted her coverage. Greg Johns posted his coverage. And so on. There were also real-time tweets, and the conference was broadcast on Mariners.com. Unsurprisingly, nothing earth-shattering was revealed. Jack Zduriencik didn't pull back any curtains to show Joey Votto standing behind. It was basically a two-hour State of the Mariners address, given by a number of people representing the Mariners.

But there were a handful of interesting nuggets. I'll get to them in no particular order because I forgot to take notes. First, Rick Griffin confirmed that Franklin Gutierrez has added about 14 pounds since the end of last season, and that those are 14 pounds of muscle. Justin Smoak apparently worked himself into terrific shape as well, but Gutierrez is the bigger story, because one senses that Gutierrez's performance was more directly tied to his physical condition. Last season, Guti was practically frail. Now he's not frail. Griffin said that Guti hasn't experienced any symptoms in several months and has his diet under control, so hopefully our comments section is done hearing from the armchair naturopaths.

Eric Wedge isn't just thinking about removing Ichiro from the leadoff slot - it sounds like he's probably going to remove Ichiro from the leadoff slot. If you're a reader of Internet blogs, you're probably smart enough to know that by and large lineup arrangement doesn't make much of a difference, but this is at least psychologically significant just because Ichiro has been entrenched up there for so long. Other leadoff candidates were named. Dustin Ackley was one of them. It's going to be Ackley. It's totally going to be Ackley. I mean, it has to be Ackley, right? Wedge mentioned Chone Figgins which made me want to laugh, but it wasn't an appropriate venue.

Figgins' hip is all better, by the way, in case you were worried. You can stop sending all those cards and gift baskets. And Casper Wells is over his balance problems, although I'm still not convinced we have a good explanation for where they came from in the first place, and there's nothing more reassuring than mysterious neurological pathology.

In the surprise to end all surprises, Zduriencik didn't go into any detail with regard to Prince Fielder. You might think that he could open up now, since the sweepstakes are over, but opening up about how those sweepstakes went could work against him come the next opportunity. It doesn't sound like any other transactions are imminent, although I guess the team's interested in adding some kind of veteran position player. If you were wondering who's going to be this year's Adam Kennedy, there's a good chance he's not yet in the organization. Kevin Millwood will be this year's Adam Kennedy for the pitchers. So I guess that makes him this year's...Jamey Wright?

Jesus Montero's going to catch. The team loves his opposite-field power. Duh. Miguel Olivo's still going to catch more, at least for the first while. Trying to think of other things...Figgins can expect to play pretty much everywhere in a super-utility role. It's what he used to do, so maybe that'll make him comfortable. Of course, another thing he used to do is hit. Eric Wedge is a prolific blinker. In a side conversation, Tony Blengino told me about what Dazzy Vance used to do. Look at this Baseball-Reference page, about 1924. Look at the strikeouts. Vance led the National League in K/9, at 7.6. In second place was Burleigh Grimes, at 3.9. There were eight teams in the NL that year. There were a total of 3,381 strikeouts. Vance was responsible for 8% of them.

Anyway, back on topic, the theme of the day was basically growth and development. So much emphasis was put on how the team is doing things the right way, or in the way that the team believes is the right way, by building from within. Zduriencik was very adamant about this. I guess he has to be. Something he said that stuck with me was that baseball isn't like basketball or football. You can't turn a team around with one guy. (He cited Andrew Luck.) I knew that already, and most of you knew that already, but it's worth keeping in mind. It's so critical to understand the limited impact that individual players can have in this game.

Wedge was optimistic. Wedge has always been optimistic. Zduriencik was a little less optimistic, as far as 2012 is concerned. His big quote that people kept talking about was "This is going to be a challenging year at the big league level. Let's not kid ourselves." As Mike Salk pointed out, it lends itself well to a team slogan. Mariners Baseball: Let's Not Kid Ourselves.

But as much as people are bracing for 2012 to be another development year, it should be an exciting development year, and there's no question that things are looking up. The organization has made tremendous progress, as hard as that might be to believe if you just look at the surface. The Mariners' day will come. The day brings no promises, but it'll be brighter.

6 recs  |  113 comments

Comments

Alternatively,

Mariners Baseball: Big League Level

Can we magically turn into the Rays one of these years?
I think a lot of things would have to go right.
The Rays "build from within" model took six years

From picking BJ Upton at #2 in 2002 until they broke .500 (and incidentally went all the way to the WS) in 2008. Along the way they basically didn’t have a miss in the first round outside 2005 (whereas they took the likes of Dewon Bazelton prior to that) and they grabbed a lot of talent in the lower rounds as well.

Depending on how you look at it, the clock on that model for the M’s started when they picked Ackley in 2009; though I guess if you want to be generous you could start with Morrow in ‘06 or, better, Aumont — who helped get Lee, who got Smoak — in ’07. But even if you’re being generous, the transformation from Mariners caterpillar into Rays-esque butterfly is still a couple of years away.

Well look who's kind of not really made the big time!
He talked to Rizzs on the radio dude
I like that slogan.

But it probably shouldn’t become a meme lest it get tired quickly.

Conveys a better tone about playing the kids than "Mariners Baseball: D'awwwwww"
"Mariners Baseball: Let's Not Kid Ourselves."

That’s gold, Jerry, gold~!

So three catchers who do nothing but catch? Um….seems a bit of a waste of roster space.

Or maybe Jaso won't be catching at the major league level.

Which may be a possibility going into the year.

I have to admit I completely forgot he was a thing.

I wouldn’t mind seeing what we have there.

Me neither.

I would much rather he be on the team and Olivo be in Minnesota or anywhere but here, but I’m resigned to thinking that Olivo will be the starting catcher for at least a good portion of the season and maybe Jaso can take that over next year.

I do not hope injury on him, but I wouldn't count on Olivo staying healthy.

Of course Jaso could totally suck, but who gives a shit.

My thought also. Jaso likely sees an awful lot more time in the second half.

Olivo can have his usual contribution in the first half of the season, dingers and all, then stash him on the DL when he does his usual second half stumble. Not sure whether Jaso really needs to be up with the ML club for that though.

Or trade him at the deadline

Catchers get hurt a lot; assuming Olivo is healthy and Olivoishly productive, you never know what contender might have a need (or what they might have to offer).

Makes the Lueke trade seem a little shortsighted

But yeah, I guess that is a possibility.

Does it?

Might as well stall some service time while we have 3 catchers. Until Olivo gets traded or his contact runs out.

Jaso is 28, with 2 years service time racked up

Are we really worried about holding onto him in his age-32 season?

If so, then ok. But I wouldn’t expect that.

"Contact runs out" HA

That is a perfect Freudian slip/typo.

Where do you get "nothing but catch?"
So if two of our three catchers can't even catch, do we get an extra two roster spots?
Note that in this comment I'm pretending that at least one of our catchers has catching skills.
I'm not ready for that leap of faith.
By replacing "anything" with "nothing". It's called Pronoun Tourette Syndrome. Effects one in ten people. True story.
Olivo is a catcher, Jaso is a catcher

If Montero’s just going to catch (there had been talk about playing him elsewhere, at least with the Yankees)…. which one of them does anything else? Are you being pedantic about Montero DH’ing?

Oh, or are you being pedantic about all of them being crappy defensive catchers?
Where do you get that Montero is "just going to catch" ?
"Jesus Montero's going to catch."

So THAT’S what you’re being pedantic about. Fun times.

If the plan was for Montero to catch some of the time and play some other defensive position some of the time, wouldn’t that have been what was said?

Even full time catchers don't play catcher every day yet clearly they will want his bat in the lineup every day

It doesn’t really need to be clarified that he’s just doing some catching rather than all of it because of that.

I think (s)he was saying that the two extra roster spots are going to be taken by people that play only one position.

So basically it limits the team’s defensive flexibility because none of those catchers are trained at any other position.

It's not being pedantic.

Your entire point:

So three catchers who do nothing but catch? Um….seems a bit of a waste of roster space.

Which you’re basing off Jeff stating that the Mariners said “Jesus Montero’s going to catch”. Not Jesus Montero is only going to catch. Or anything like that. Just that he will catch. That Jesus Montero is nowhere indicated that he will “do nothing but catch” completely invalidates your point. That is not being pedantic. That’s correcting you.

So then, why so many kids?
They're our best options right now?
Because if a few of them develop then we'll all be dancing in a few years?
But we're not supposed to be kidding ourselves!

…commence groaning….

If Miguel Cabrera can play 3B I don't see why Jesus can't
Because Cabrera has before and Montero never has.

And frankly, neither should go anywhere near it with the intent of “playing” defense.

I think we should give him a shot
Miguel can do all through Jesus who strengthens him
I've appreciated the feeling of forthrightness.

To me, it seems like there has been an openness in the Zduriencik years that I’m not sure fans of other organizations receive. Though moves do not always work, the method feels more measured and considered. Rebuilding, though painful at times, has thus far felt like an event in itself.

Sure beats just being told

to “trust the process”

I love it that we can now know that when someone puts on 14 lbs, it muscle, not fat. Got Guti.

Seriously, Go Guti, we definitely need the old version of you to compete this year.

If he is anything like 2009 Guti, I'll be all sorts of happy.
Mariners baseball: Major league moments
The Royals are supposed to recycle things already used by the Mariners, not the other way around.
Dazzy Vance also taught his trademark "drop ball" to Jackie Mitchell

who later used it to strike out Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig back-to-back while being a 17-year-old girl.

Dazzy Vance!

Dizzy Dean, Daffy Dean, plus Cyrus Vance, the former Secretary of State.

If the team does in fact get a veteran position player ala Kennedy, I would assume 2 facts: 1) that player would be an infielder who would be competing for the Kawasaki/Rodriguez spot

2) They aren’t going to trade for such a player, it will be a free agent signing.

Going off those two assumptions and looking at the SBN Free Agent Tracker I see 3 names that fit those qualifications: Carlos Guillen, Alex Cora, and Aaron Miles. Wasn’t there a rumor the M’s were sniffing around Guillen earlier in the offseason?

They stopped because they were afraid the tuberculosis was still there.
Using, of course . . .

the same doctors who told them not to re-sign Randy Johnson, because his back would never last through another contract.

Somehow I've manufactured a desire for Mark Reynolds at 3B.

Last season his SOs were down to 196 from 211 and he hit 37 or 38 HRs. I’m going to be disappointed if I have to look out there and see Figgins instead.

We're in the countdown to pitchers and catchers reporting ...

so I guess that I’m allowed to (perhaps irrationally) believe that the Mariners will be one of the big positive surprise stories in baseball this year. And unlike 2007 it won’t be a phantasma.

If...

Guti is back, Ichiro rebounds, Montero, Smoak and Ackley all have good seasons, Olivo doesn’t hit in the middle of the order against RHP, there are some nuggets in the pile….

That is a lot of if. I’ll be cautious.

I think on the "how many delusions do you have to hold to be truly hopeful" scale

the Mariners are like a 6 and certainly seem ahead of a lot of other teams in reasons for “fanboy” optimism. I could see true optimism coming in the next couple of years if things go good, but right now it’s a bit too early unless a lot of things go right.

Not to nitpick with your post title but

Isn’t this more of a nautical dawn or an aquatic crepescule? I am excited by the many reasons for optimism in both Seattle and on the farm. I guess if I were going to make a suggestion to the Mariners in the use of symbols and metaphors, I’d like to see a propeller added to the compass on the logo. We know where we should go……and we’re going there.

And a jetpack! Maybe some missiles too..I haven't decided yet.

Can the compass be a fighting robot?

Nautical twilight can refer to post-sundown or pre-sunrise

I meant the latter. In retrospect, Nautical Dawn would’ve been way better, had I realized it was a thing.

So no clue about the unspent millions?

No big surprise that they’re not in on Jackson or Oswalt, but it is surprising that they don’t seem to be looking for ways to take advantage of the $10-15 million difference between the current payroll and what they’ve run the last few years.

I don't think they're going to spend much more money

Here is what we have to work with: 1) the Mariners have never once said they intend for payroll this year to be equal to payroll last year (I believe they DID make such a statement last year). 2) there are no obvious ways for them to spend that money right now that would seem to make sense, though clearly a preseason trade, the draft or even in-season acquisitions could present spending opportunities. 3) All the shit about Chris Larson and his divorce and unsubstantiated rumors and speculation about selling the team, etc. etc. 4) Attendance has been going down for years, and so have revenues, probably. 5) It’s getting a little late…

I don’t think they’re going to spend much more money.

7. Nintendo is hurting.
hmm. Don't know what happened to 6.
6 is for my sorrow.

pretty sure.

I forget what 8 is for.
I know what you're thinking, but don't even go there.

The rules explicitly forbid comments regarding religion.

The Violent Femmes are a religion now?
Yes in that I will happily sacrifice goats if I never have to hear another Violent Femmes song
Room to take on payroll at the trade deadline if an opportunity appears
If they don't do this, I would love love love if they reworked Felix's contract with a signing bonus

And made his average salary lower. I know inflation etc, but seems like that could potentially be a useful way to use the surplus we’ve got now that we can’t throw at anyone useful and free up more for the next few years when we should be more competitive.
Admittedly, I don’t know if this is realistic or has been tried in the past. Logically it seems fine to me but that’s not baseball logic talking – I’m far too clueless about that.

Please sign Jorge Soler

Our OF prospects suck, I’d like one who doesn’t

It's uncomfortable hearing such a candid appraisal of the team from the GM

I appreciate it, and its not news really to anyone who’s been paying attention both to the team and the division, but its strange.

I appreciate his honesty.

His bosses may not, I’m guessing, but who knows?

I'm actually very excited about the team this upcoming season

but then again, I’m a very optimistic fan. Some of the reasons I’m excited….

Seeing King Felix pitch, I love this guy. Seeing and hoping in the same breathe that Franklin is back in shape. It would be huge for us if he is healthy and back to his form a few years ago. Jesus Montero, I’m really anxious to see what his bat can do. I heard it is a big one! Seeing who takes up the leadoff spot from Ichiro. I think it will be Dustin Ackley, but if it is Chone, will he ever get a base hit? Will he ever steal a base? I’m excited to see if Chone ever gets anywhere close to the production we’ve expected from him since we signed him. Yes, that’s right, I’m excited about Chone Figgins. I have to believe that this guy can still play baseball. Understanding that if we get a healthy Gutti, a actual sighting of Chone Figgins, and the production we’ve grown accustomed to from Ichiro, to go along with Carp, Montero, Ackley in the middle of our lineup, we could be competitive. I would love to see us compete with this young team and grow into contenders for the next few seasons. Go M’s!

It seems to me that Justin Smoak putting on added muscle is still more important than most hitters adding muscle.

Though Gutierrez still seems more significant, Smoak still seems significant because of all the Mark Teixeira comparisons he got when he was a prospect. I mean, there’s a significant size difference (at least, from the naked eye) between those two, and if Smoak is going to become a 25-30 Hr hitter (or more, fingers crossed) there still seems to be some power that can be added to that frame. I’m excited for both.

I forgot about Smoak

Could be a breakout season for him. Let’s hope for that.

Smoak is a big kid--listed at 6'4, 230, which is 1 inch and 10 pounds heavier than Tex.

But then, who knows if the listed values are correct anymore.

Honestly, Smoak’s size confuses me. In pictures he looks a little on the tall, lanky side, and adding muscle could make a huge difference. But watching him on TV last year, he looked like a bowling ball rolling around the bases. But then, we hear the phrase “4% body fat” in reference to Smoak’s new physique… 6’4, 230 and 4% body fat sounds like Greek God territory.

I don’t know what to think!

I thought he dropped his body fat by 4% vs. has 4% body fat.
Oh that makes more sense.
I see it now.

Man, there’s a huge difference between “down to 4%” and “down 4%.”

I thought the Tex comparisons had to do with being an all around player/defense.
I saw it more as "he's going to be a mini-Tex" but had the potential to match him if everything broke right.

Just like everything had to break right for Tex. I don’t think anyone was projecting quite as much power, but I saw Justin Smoak as a guy that could stand to get bigger.

I swear it was just because of his scouted ability to play defense well but now I don't remember where that was.

I’ll have to look it up sometime and see why I thought that.

A lot of it was due to the switch-hitting and power. People aren't particularly clever.

White people get comped to white people, short people get comped to short people, and so on.

So how do people feel about the possibility for payroll being cut?

I know we’re not going to be sure that it will be until we start the season with a lower payroll, but all signs point in that direction right now.

Personally I’m not freaking out, I think the marginal value of adding another 2-3 wins in free agency or via trade doesn’t seem that great, and if our young guys do bust out this year we can always make a move mid-season.

Payroll being cut is useful for riling up AM radio talk show callers and Baker bloggers

But uninteresting otherwise. I’m not interested in the money they spend, just the talent they develop or acquire. Doesn’t look like there was much worth spending on this winter.

I disagree.

I certainly don’t align myself with Baker or the other whack jobs out there that think payroll is the only indication of a team’s willingness to succeed, but I would be dissapointed if we were in major cost cutting mode, pushing payroll down into the 40-50 million range, that would make it very difficult for us to succeed.

We’re not doing that, however, and I believe Z when he says that ownership will step up when the time comes.

I don't think there is any indication that the payroll would be cut that far.

It would mean that Felix would have to be traded.

Agreed, which is why I'm not freaking out.

But I disagree with the idea that we should be totally uninterested in how much money they spend.

Basically, it doesn't matter how much money this team spends.

What matters is the level of talent the team puts on the field. The higher the talent, the more the wins. The more the wins, the higher the revenue. The higher the revenue, the higher the budget. Personally, I wouldn’t mind the payroll going down a bit further next off season as long as the level of talent keeps pouring into the organization and blossoms.

Pretty much agree with what you're saying.

We’re at the point in the win curve where spending more money on marginal wins just isn’t that valuable. When our talent does drive us higher on the curve we’ll spend.

I guess maybe I’m just more sensitive to the risk of becoming one of those bottom feeding teams that never moves up the win curve and thus never increases payroll, being a Mariners fan all your life will do that to you :).

Spending more increases the chances a better product is put on the field

There are no guarantees, obviously, but more money cannot hurt. Even in cases like [fuck] Carlos Silva, his contract was a luxury, not a requisite. However, it hindered our free agency opportunities in the following years, therefore impeding our progress.

Accidentally tabbed to post instead of preview

Money spent does matter. Not everyone can be Andrew Friedman.

I'm fine as long as they spend the money somewhere.

Throw it into scouting. Save it for a more competitive year. I just don’t want to see it go away entirely. I guess we might not ever know how it is actually spent though.

Pretty much agree with what you said at the end.

If the M’s somehow find themselves in the race in July, there should be some flexibility there to make a move. However, it seems like Jack would make a good move otherwise, though perhaps this gives him a little more wiggle room, or has to give up less if he takes on more salary.

Otherwise, payroll should be a non-issue. Teams shouldn’t just be spending money because they have it. Edwin Jackson as the best free agent remaining reportedly wants four years and that’s three more years than I’d want the M’s to commit to.

I think I'd be plenty happy with a 2-3 year deal worth around $18m-$27m

But it’s highly unlikely Edwin’s market falls apart that thoroughly.

Kuroda went for 1/$10m, so I suppose it’s possible.

I am a little surprised that they're willing to cut payroll given the restless fanbase. Otherwise, I'm fine with it and applaud the team's focus.

I’ve always said that 2012 should be a development year for the Mariners. There was just no way to assemble enough talent to hang with Texas. Then the offseason saw the Angels reload big time. Now we have two perceived juggernauts in the AL West, making it even harder to climb to the top.

So what do you do?

1) Significantly raise payroll to “show you’re serious about winning” and proceed to sign Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham, Carlos Pena, and Edwin Jackson? That will certainly add some wins to the team and it maybe puts the Mariners within striking distance of the other teams. Meanwhile, we’re basically cannibalizing on developmental opportunity to make yet another weak run at the division title. Fans love to see tangible evidence that their team has a shot at winning the World Series….and tangibly even if the Mariners manage to land multiple free agents it still looks like a 3rd place team at-best on paper. That’s not a recipe for attendance gains.

2) Maximize developmental opportunity by focusing on stabilizing a foundation of young players while complimenting them with cost-effective veteran talent, if possible. This gives the most flexibility for managing for the future. Of course, fans are already annoyed with being told to “be patient and wait this thing out.” Naturally, this means ownership prepares for damage control on their finances as the attendance slide continues.

I’m describing a choice between two extremes. And it seems like the organization is going all-in on the 2nd. I’m fine with this. I think the team needs another development year. We just don’t have a solid enough foundation to start comfortably adding wins with free agents or trades for short-term solutions.

I am not worried about payroll. There will be a time in the future to test the ownership in regards to payroll but this isn’t one of them. All this talk about payroll this offseason circled around Prince Fielder. Prince Fielder signed for 9-years and $214 Million with Detroit, a team already on top of their division. Again, this wasn’t the test.

When it comes the time to strike, the team will require more funds. That’s when we find out if ownership will put up or shut up.

Although Edwin Jackson would still be a good pickup for this team if they can get him.

But once he’s off the table, yeah, I don’t even know who they’d spend money on and I can’t image them pulling off a trade yet.

I didn't know Well had balance problems.

Well had balance problems? That’s not good.

Wells

I don’t know how that happened.

That's why his production fell off a cliff last year.
They really sprang up after Morrow threw a fastball into his face.

Before that he was on fire.

Morrow

The gift that keeps on giving. I hope Wells isn’t permanently damaged goods now.

Wedge went out of his way to show enthusiasm for Wells in the recent 710 interview.

Twice at 2:18 and 5:07 he brings up Wells in the same breath as Smoak and Carp. And he didn’t really name drop that many guys overall. Interesting observation is all.

Does anyone know when Vegas sets the over/under for season win totals?

I lost money on the Mariners last year (took the over on 70 wins) but I think the over/under for the Ms will go down even more for next season, and I think they could easy make the over.

But that’s probably just the compulsive gambler in me talking.

Betting on your favorite teams is a horrid thing to do
I disagree

But I’ve won more bets than I’ve lost on my favorite teams.

I'm going to lay down 50 bucks on the Mariners winning the world series, because why not.
$10,000 baby, as good as guaranteed.
I'm so fucking excited to watch this team win 75-80 games this year.

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