I still like reading these because I think that it's neat that Conor got a job working for them, and now gets to write these lists every year. Here's what he came up with:
1. Jesus Montero, c
2. Taijuan Walker, rhp
3. Danny Hultzen, lhp
4. James Paxton, lhp
5. Nick Franklin, 2b/ss
6. Francisco Martinez, 3b
7. Chance Ruffin, rhp
8. Tom Wilhelmsen, rhp
9. Vinnie Catricala, 3b/1b/of
10. Phillips Castillo, of
My Prospcect Handbook came in yesterday and it was written before the Pineda trade was public, so the major changes are that Campos was fifth back then and Montero is obviously first now. Catricala was also considered our best hitter for average pre-Montero, and Liddi, our best power hitter. Otherwise, relative to last year's top thirty, there were quite a few names dropping in and out and there's now a "Deceased" next to Halman's name, which doesn't get any easier to see.
If you've followed my work for a little while, you can probably get at certain misgivings that I'd have about this thing. I'm not a huge fan of putting relievers all that high, and much as I like Wilhelmsen, the age alone would make me shy away from putting him at #8 as I feel that's misleading. Similarly, while I found it comforting to hear that Ruffin's heater is a bit better than I had previously heard (I had him 91-3, they have him 92-5) as well as praise for his slider, there's a bit of cognitive dissonance that goes firing in my brain when I see him advertised as a middle reliever in the near term. That's a little hard for me to reconcile with the placement. And I'd probably go with Pryor as our closer of the future, but that's me.
The other issue is something that you've probably seem me remark on before is the placement of Francisco Martinez at #6. I'm well aware of the fact that everyone in the tools-oriented prospecting community loves him and is willing to cut him quite a lot of slack for being promoted as aggressively as he has been (he just turned 21 in September). Still, we're talking about a guy who hit twenty-one doubles and ten home runs last year (add in seven triples, and however you weight those), walked just twenty-three times (five fewer than he did in 135 fewer plate appearances the previous season), and struck out over a hundred times. His speed is taken as a plus in his ledger, a rarity for a third baseman, but he was caught as many times as he stole a base last year. To be fair, he did play a bit better after the trade, unlike certain outfielders, but I feel like the youth/level logic can often lead us astray. This is going to be an obvious experiment, but go with me on this for a second.
Player A (21): 132 G (AA/AAA), 550 PA, 506 AB, 142 H, 28 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 88/27 K/BB, .281/.332/.383
Player B (21): 124 G (AA), 509 PA, 477 AB, 138 H, 21 2B, 7 3B, 10 HR, 104/23 K/BB, .289/.321/.426
Everyone gets what I'm doing, right? Player A is a shortstop, ranked 25th for us? Player B is the third baseman we've been talking about? It's Triunfel and Martinez. Did I mention that Erie has a 132 RH park factor for HR where Jackson has 103? I probably should mention that.
Anyway, Conor did some good things in his top thirty as well. I was pleased to see Castillo ranked higher than Pimentel, Erasmo get a bit of love outside the top ten (along with Maurer outside the 20), and Chiang, Chavez, and Littlewood treated with a certain amount of skepticism, but on the larger scale, it does seem a little like a standard prospect list. It's not surprising in any positive or interesting way.
Chat will be at noon our time. I don't know that I have any major questions to ask, but hey, I might.
7 recs | 217 comments
I don't know if this is just a Mariners thing
But I feel like for the past few years BA has always had a reliever ranked in the M’s Top 10. None of them ever seem to amount to much and I have to think we have 10 prospects that project to have more value than say a Chance Ruffin or a Josh Fields
Punkhazard - January 27, 2012
Off the top of my head
Josh Fields, Dan Cortes, Phillippe Aumonte, and Josh Lueke. None of these guys are really that good
Punkhazard - January 27, 2012
BA never ranked Fields in the top ten!
JY - January 27, 2012
God that was a shitty pick.
I mean, it seemed like a poor idea at the time, but it just got worse and worse.
JY - January 27, 2012
What I didn't understand
was why Z signed Fields after the change to the compensation system. As I understood, he could’ve had a redo. Unless maybe it was a political issue with MLB or something.
jose luis - January 27, 2012
Most seemed to regard it as a vote of confidence for the scouting department and that he would have ruffled too many feathers by not signing him.
JY - January 27, 2012
Whoa thanks
This is one of those questions that my brain was not willing to let go of.
That seems like a plausible answer and I’m grateful for it.
jose luis - January 27, 2012
I hope he now takes the opportunity to rub their faces in it like when the family dog makes a mess on the carpet.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
He kinda did that yesterday.
jameslcrockett - January 27, 2012
What happened yesterday, radio interview or something?
Anything I’d be able to find online? I’m not questioning the validity of your comment, this just sounds interesting.
Kermit. - January 27, 2012
Larry Stone has the transcript.
In it, you’ll find him referencing (paraphrasing) the mess the previous regime left him, including Josh Fields.
jameslcrockett - January 27, 2012
Not sure where he gets off blaming Josh Fields on Bavasi.
I mean, yeah sure, Bavasi / Fontaine drafted him, but Z didn’t have to sign him either.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 27, 2012
I just now noticed this whole subthread has been about this.
And I’m just repeating shit already said. Apologies all.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 27, 2012
And we'd probably have Mike Trout instead
HHHHNNNNNNGGGGGHHHHH
[note: that’s entirely speculative and not true at all but the fact remains we COULD have had Trout instead of Fields]
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
And Tim Lincecum too.
ThundaPC - January 27, 2012
Not the right year
And yes I get the point, the fact remains: signing Fields was a waste. Perhaps it was a calculated waste by Zduriencik as others have suggested, but it was nonetheless a waste.
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
Imagine if League hadn't blown those saves in Baltimore
Punkhazard - January 27, 2012
Imagine if we kept Alex Rodriguez for 2001
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
There would probably be no room in the budget for Prince Fielder
Punkhazard - January 27, 2012
This is not a fat joke
Punkhazard - January 27, 2012
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
“…no room in the budget”
kennerdoloman - January 27, 2012
I specifically stated in my post that it was not a fat joke
You must have realized it, considering that’s the post you replied to, or do you not know how to read?
Punkhazard - January 27, 2012
Oh, I realized it.
Sorry if it sounded like the latter; I’ve been here since 2010, but I don’t post that much.
kennerdoloman - January 27, 2012
Do we really need to say it's not a fat joke?
I wouldn’t have interpreted it as such if you hadn’t explicitly pointed it that it wasn’t meant to be.
Patrick Stites - January 27, 2012
No Bret Boone
Poochie - January 28, 2012
Bret Boone played second base.
No Carlos Guillen.
EequalsMc2 - January 29, 2012
They wouldn't have signed Boone if they already had Bell and Carlos Guillen
Poochie - January 29, 2012
Wrong draft.
w00tah - January 27, 2012
No
If a first round draft pick doesn’t sign with a team, that team gets reimbursed with a pick the following draft that, slot wise, is similar to the previous draft.
We took Fields in the 2008 draft. Mike Trout was taken in the 2009 draft. Our compensation pick in the 2009 draft could have hypothetically netted Trout.
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
Okay Captain Hindsight.
w00tah - January 27, 2012
You don't need hindsight to know a first round reliever is a bad idea.
MT Olson - January 27, 2012
Duh.
w00tah - January 28, 2012
That's kinda the point though.
It’s a lot easier to imagine what-if scenarios on bad decisions that shouldn’t have been made. Both are equally as fruitless, sure, but you don’t lament the good decisions that unpredictably went awry nearly as much.
MT Olson - January 28, 2012
Really?
Joshua Fields was a terrible draft choice by terrible management. But that has nothing to do with compensatory picks, which you inaccurately refuted me regarding. I corrected your assertion by telling you how it actually works, and you decide to be snarky because you’ve been proven wrong?
Not to mention a number of other members have made this exact notation because, as Olson alluded to, the drafting of Josh Fields was really fucking stupid. And the signing of him was, at best, a calculated business decision that had nothing to do with improving the talent in the Mariners system.
The whole Josh Fields saga was idiotic. There’s no harm in learning from it.
cwel87 - January 28, 2012
My comment was aimed at poking fun of your comment because its the equivalent of draft rosterbation.
w00tah - January 28, 2012
You are forgetting that with Class D compensation picks
That you only get one if you make a fair offer to the drafted player and the player refuses. If you dont make any offer you dont get compensation.
Pebohead - January 31, 2012
We made several offers to him, and he held out for more money.
joof - February 3, 2012
Anti-Ackley!
seattlebruin - January 27, 2012
That's not inaccurate.
Cortes was #10 last year, and #9 the year before. Mark Lowe was #8 in 2008. There were no pure relievers in 2009 though, at least none that we regarded as relievers at the time (most still thought JC Ramirez and Aumont would start).
JY - January 27, 2012
I'm with you that outside of maybe Catricala and Castillo I don't like the 6-10 very much
I’d rather just exclude all relievers unless they’re of the caliber to be a truly dominant closer type that can provide a great deal of value, unless there’s really nobody with projectably greater value at a more premium position which I don’t think is the case here. There should be some positional consideration brought into it I think and that should move the middle relief way down the list in this case.
OlSalty - January 27, 2012
Jay, thanks for the write up.
yuniform - January 27, 2012 via Android app
You're quite welcome!
JY - January 27, 2012
Wasn't Francisco Martinez 20 last year?
And Carlos Triunfel 21? Shouldn’t you use Triunfel’s 2010 AA numbers as a 20 year old, which are .260/.288/.334, which are a lot worse than Martinez’s .289/.321/.426?
I realize the difference is like 6 months, so Triunfel’s like a really young 21 year old while Martinez is a really old 20 year old, but still.
valencia - January 27, 2012
Yeah I botched that, but what's less than seven months really?
JY - January 27, 2012
Not much
I think the bigger issue is the 129 games (or 136) Triunfel had in AA prior to 2011 vs Martinez’s zero. And even with that 129 game head start they hit pretty similarly.
valencia - January 27, 2012
It's just one can of worms after another.
We’d also have to consider that Triunfel busted his fibula (I believe), missed an entire season, and after the injury no one was quite sure if he’d still be able to play at the same level.
JY - January 27, 2012
Oh I'm pretty sure he's still playing at the same level.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
That's not true, he got to triple-A this year.
JY - January 27, 2012
I meant the thing where he didn't hit for power or get on base.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
I know what you meant, I just get amused by responding with further misinterpretations.
JY - January 27, 2012
D'awwwww
abender20 - January 27, 2012
As an added note...
In the handbook, there was a remark about Triunfel having such good hand-eye coordination that he makes contact on bad pitches to get himself out rather than wait for good pitches to drive. Which was basically what I was saying two or three years ago.
JY - January 27, 2012
So basically he's Decline Ichiro without the speed or the fun?
abender20 - January 27, 2012
He still has the cannon arm going for him.
JY - January 27, 2012
So basically he's Jose Lopez
seattlebruin - January 27, 2012
Basically, yes.
JY - January 27, 2012
We need to hire someone to just scream PACIENCIA every time he swings.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
So basically we just need a few members of his family to die
WhyIOtter - January 27, 2012
Why would we need that? So he can literally be Jose Lopez?
I can’t think of a worse fate for anyone than to be Jose Lopez
Dewey N - January 27, 2012
07-08 Jose Vidro?
InSpokane - January 27, 2012
Jose Vidro suck at baseball but he didn't have to sacrifice family members first.
CapSea - January 27, 2012
Woah
What?
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
At this point is it bad to think Martinez has the upside of Pedro Feliz?
i.e. a defensive 3B with above-average power?
ThomasG - January 27, 2012
Well, he'd have to go about showing some power first.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
That's a good player comparison I think.
I’m still waiting to see more power out of him before I’m comfortable with that, but it’s about the best comp I’ve seen.
JY - January 27, 2012
I thought it might be of interest to people to see what John Sickel's said about Andrew Carraway, as he was noting "Interesting Grade C Prospects" today:
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
Carraway was Conor's sleeper for the system.
JY - January 27, 2012
He's a wry pick alright
abender20 - January 27, 2012
BOOOOO
Avery Bowron - January 27, 2012
Although that was at least a decent name pun
certainly better than any of the Smoak / Carp ones.
Avery Bowron - January 27, 2012
I take it you'd prefer Smoaked Trout?
(And yes, I know: BOOOOOOOOOOO)
The Ancient Mariner - January 31, 2012
Well sure,
But what about this other Carraway I’ve been hearing about? Out of West Egg?
Liebkartoffel - January 27, 2012 via mobile
He's a seedy character
The Ancient Mariner - January 31, 2012
I have used this pun a few times before.
JY - January 31, 2012
Rye would you do such a thing?
You’re butter than that.
jameslcrockett - January 31, 2012
Yeah, no
abender20 - February 1, 2012
The top 5 for this org seems pretty straight forward.
I’d have Catricala 6th and no relievers in sight as well as sending Martinez down a spot or two since, you know, his actual numbers. I usually am right in line with Conor’s thoughts but this one seems a bit weird.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
Miller?
Did Brad Miller get a mention? Would rather have him over Ruffin.
csiems - January 27, 2012
Agree!
abender20 - January 27, 2012
Miller was #11.
JY - January 27, 2012
Jay, are we going to get Top 30 blobs from you at some point?
seattlebruin - January 27, 2012
Check back in a few weeks and we'll see how insane grad school is making me.
I know that I’m probably going to be doing a top ten hitters and top ten pitchers for Grand Salami and something might grow out of that, but the baseball schedule is brutal for me because the times when I don’t have games to keep up with, I’m in school.
JY - January 27, 2012
Graduate school is really getting in the way of your Lookout Landing presence.
You should drop out now before that gets out of hand.
CapSea - January 27, 2012
I was sure glad last summer:
When finals came the week after the season ended. Though I was in class all night the last day of the season. Missed all the fun!
extavernmouse - January 27, 2012
I like that the top 5 is a solid, mostly unquestionable top 5 and I also kind of like that people have varying opinions on a bunch of guys that could be 6-10.
The last time the farm system was this good or at least this interesting, clearly happened at a time before I followed minor league baseball.
Vinny Catricala defense versus Jesus Montero defense. Nobody would question that Montero is a better bat (or one of the best in the minors) but when it comes to two guys that appear to be all-offense, little-to-no defense, does Cat’s ranking imply more about how good Montero’s bat is, or does it imply that there are some holes in Catricala’s bat? Any idea where Catricala will be playing defense to start the year?
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
The last time the farm system was this good was in the early-mid '00's
Clint Nageotte, Trevor Blackman, Ryan Anderson, someone shoot me
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
Rather, Blackley*
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
and Travis
Mariner John - January 27, 2012
:-(
Apparently my brain doesn’t want to remember him.
Good job, brain. Keep it up.
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
I don't remember any pitching prospects since Anderson being this highly thought of.
Blackley, Nageotte and company really aren’t good comps.
KC Mariner - January 27, 2012
Huh, well I guess both made the top 100 list at one point which I didn't remember.
I still don’t think they were thought of as highly as Hultzen, Walker and Paxton though.
KC Mariner - January 27, 2012
They weren't as highly thought of (save Anderson), I acknowledge that
But the general lesson stands the test of time: no quality prospect pool is a sure thing. Appreciate all the good that comes of Paxton/Walker/Hultzen, and in the same breath, take none for granted should they find success.
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
I think you're forgetting Soriano
He may not have been quite as highly ranked as Hultzen/Walker, but was certainly above where most seem to have Paxton.
dnc - January 28, 2012
I did forget about him, you're right.
He cracked the top 100 a couple of times so he had the hype. I remember being excited for him, but looking at him more as the future closer rather than a starter.
KC Mariner - January 28, 2012
Better than just top 100
He was #27 in 03 and #30 in 02. He was a pretty bigtime prospect.
I remember the conventional wisdom was that he could end up in relief, but Dave Cameron and Churchill (among others) argued pretty passionately that he could more than succeed as a starter. I bought into their arguments (and if his arm would have held up, I still think they would have been right).
dnc - January 28, 2012
Where would [Buxton/Unknown 3rd pick] fall into this our org rankings.
In other words, are you going to be preparing another “Our new top prospect is _” post at draft time?
stredarts - January 27, 2012
I'm not going to answer For Jay, but in my opinion that's going to depend heavily on the performances of those guys above.
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
That would depend largely on who we pick and how many guys have graduated at the time.
I think that Walker might still be the #1 though.
JY - January 27, 2012
He's sort of starting to get a buzz going recently, huh? In the way that, he could be seen as a potential #1 pitching prospect in baseball by next year?
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
He is up there with the best arms in the minor leagues right now.
JY - January 27, 2012
He makes a lot of sense for the Mariners considering their lack of elite OF talent.
stredarts - January 27, 2012
If you're generous and predict...
Moore, Teheran, Miller, Bauer, Cole, Banuelos, Turner and Hultzen all graduate or significantly falter over the course of 2012, Walker would have to make tremendous improvements to pass Taillon and Bundy and maybe even Skaggs.
jameslcrockett - January 27, 2012
I don't necessarily agree, but arguing a few positional spots on a rankings list is hardly worth it.
I think you could find a few scouts that would argue Walker as perhaps the next Shelby Miller in terms of a year over year jump.
I think we all expect Moore/Teheran to graduate for sure and a couple of those other guys. Matt Moore made a similar jump himself and no, I’m not comparing the two, I’m just saying that these things happen. And I don’t think he’d have to make “tremendous improvements” He was tremendous last year and he was a great repertoire as it is. He just needs to continue to show that this year, which is never a guarantee.
Annnddd if he dominates in High Desert?
Nobody is arguing that it wouldn’t take an awesome season, beyond odds, to become the #1 pitching prospect in baseball. But Walker is one of only a handful of guys that seemingly have that shot for the 2013 prospect lists.
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
I do not agree with this assessment
Walker would have to make strides, yes – but that’s the expectation for a 19-year old flame-throwing athlete with three plus or better pitches, no?
And with his ridiculously young age, those strides he makes wouldn’t have to be exactly world-beating to have him in the conversation as the best pitching prospect out there. He’s got incredible potential.
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
I guess I'm just wondering if the talent in the system is peaking,
Walker and Paxton are to some extent surprises, so in some ways you couldn’t have seen this strong pitching class coming. But with when that pitching graduates the team is going to need some more guys to show surprise upside.
stredarts - January 28, 2012
I got questions answered about Chiang and Marder...
I’m sooo glad Conor is doing these now.
JY - January 27, 2012
And we may have broken their website.
Good work, team?
JY - January 27, 2012
Any insight on either of them that you can share with us?
Dewey N - January 27, 2012
It's behind the pay wall now, so I'm a little leery of sharing too much.
Marder, it’s pretty straightforward. It’s hard to tell how catching will affect him with the insulin pump. Chiang is a different matter, but it didn’t seem like his poor performance after the trade was health-related.
JY - January 27, 2012
Would you blow $15-20M on Soler?
The idea of him and Buxton makes me giddy. If only we could have got Josh Bell last year :(
valencia - January 27, 2012
The CBA changes mean that few teams will be getting guys like Josh Bell anymore.
JY - January 27, 2012
Right now only two teams have Josh Bell.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
we could still get Soler before the new CBA change
one last hurrah, fuck you Bud Selig before it happens?
whatever, I guess I’ll go rosterbate to a Bell/Soler/Buxton prospect OF
valencia - January 27, 2012
What changes?
Dewey N - January 27, 2012
Jeff summarized them on SB Nation Baseball a few months back.
Link here
The gist of it is that, in lieu of hard slotting, there was a compromise on the draft where each team is allotted a bonus pool for the first ten rounds. If they exceed that, they have to pat a certain percentage in fines and in extreme cases may forfeit their high picks in the next season or two seasons. In addition, after the first ten rounds, you get penalized for signing any player for more than $100k.
JY - January 27, 2012
BA has another article with more specifics...
Link
JY - January 27, 2012
Draft cap and International spending cap
Callis: The new CBA provides for a $2.9 million international cap for each team for the 2012-13 signing period, which doesn’t start until July 2. As long as Soler signs before then, he won’t be subject to the cap. And even if he were, he’s talented enough and the penalties for busting the cap are so light (a 100-percent tax on the overage and a prohibition on signing any international player for more than $250,000 in the next signing period) that I bet several clubs would be willing to exceed the $2.9 million.
valencia - January 27, 2012
I don't have access to anything beyond top tens and I'm not a huge researcher, so forgive me if this is easily found somewhere.
I know we took a bunch of catchers in the draft and I’m curious to know where people are ranking them (especially Marlette) within the organizational rankings.
MT Olson - January 27, 2012
The trend had been Marlette and Hicks, with Marder coming before or after them depending on how people feel about the diabeetus.
JY - January 27, 2012
I imagine all three are being rated higher than Baron and Choi?
MT Olson - January 27, 2012
(nods)
Choi fell off the list entirely, what with the not playing last season.
JY - January 27, 2012
Oh right I forgot.
I just googled it and one column said knee and another Larry Stone thing said shoulder. And a M’s farm review review said back injuries. I assume he’s just fucked.
MT Olson - January 27, 2012
I think it was back problems that were hampering him in instructs last year, too.
JY - January 27, 2012
Oh, I miss Steve Baron!
My favorite irrational prospect.
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
It IS irrational to call Baron a prospect!
JY - January 27, 2012
Remember when he hit well in Spring Training?
That was funny
OlSalty - January 27, 2012
I will always remember that draft as the one where the Mariners could have had Trout by not signing Fielders, Skaggs instead of Baron,
and STILL ended up with Ackley and Franklin. Could have had all of them in theory!
abender20 - January 27, 2012
The handbook still gives us an A for that draft.
2008, the Josh Fields draft? F.
JY - January 27, 2012
The Fields no Trout swap will haunt me more than Jeff Clement ever could.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
Not that I disagree, or that I don't wish the Mariners hadn't signed Fields, but wasn't the whole thing with Trout that you had to actually have scouts in Jersey?
I just wonder how much the Mariners (or any team for that matter) were in on him. Aware of him of course, but I just remember that whole “Baseball players don’t come out of New Jersey” thing as a reason he slipped… people weren’t getting a chance to see enough of him. Though, these days with the internet and youtube, it’s hard not to be well aware of all the great high school prospects.
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
NJ is not an area that we've traditionally scouted very heavily.
But we do have some people on the ground in that area. We’ve had two or more picks out of New York the past three seasons and drafted and signed one guy out of Jersey this past year.
JY - January 27, 2012
Even if it wasn't Trout, just having a clear way out of Fields and into something way more useful...
OlSalty - January 27, 2012
I was really hoping that one of Z's first "I am the anti-Bavasi!" moves would be to not sign Fields and take the pick.
Teej - January 27, 2012
I see this has been discussed.
Sorry, I’m new here.
Teej - January 27, 2012
We'll let it slide this one time because you fulfill a minority quota
OlSalty - January 27, 2012
Brett Jackson, Tim Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, whatever.
abender20 - January 27, 2012
He will backup catch in Tacoma one day!
Just you wait and see.
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
You are rated higher than Baron
abender20 - January 27, 2012
I'd take his signing bonus and hit better
But I’d never amount to his defense.
MT Olson - January 27, 2012
Adam Moore is still around right?
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
Still on the 40-man.
Hasn’t been mentioned much since Jaso was acquired. Less after Montero. And he’s passed the realm of prospect eligibility.
JY - January 28, 2012
Is he going to AAA this year?
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
Either that, or he's traded.
With Montero, Olivo, and Jaso around it’s hard to see a place for him, assuming that we start the season with those three.
JY - January 28, 2012
If Adam Moore is healthy isn't there an argument that he might be nearly as good as Olivo or Jaso
I’d rather dump Olivo’s salary. Especially if we think Montero is gonna play catcher at least some of the year.
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
(or nearly as bad since they are all pretty troubled catchers)
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
That assumes there's a market for Olivo.
I wouldn’t rule it out, but I would probably think that Olivo sticks around because of continuity. Moore has been around long enough to know a few of the pitchers on staff, true enough, but Olivo caught nearly twice as many games last season as Moore has in his whole MLB career.
JY - January 28, 2012
I guess I feel like we are all forgetting the hopes we had for Moore
He put up pretty solid numbers in the minors. I guess before we just ditch him it would be good to really think long and hard about why we think we should keep Olivo and Jaso over Moore.
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
He's a catcher who has suffered a major knee injury.
Don’t hope too hard.
JY - January 28, 2012
Well I can't stop myself from having hope
I’ve already invested too much hope from past years.
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
This comment is Mariners Fandom in a nutshell
HitKing69 - January 29, 2012
Hope: a sunk cost
Away from which you cannot walk
J0SER - January 30, 2012
Olivo's salary is hardly a concern.
Which also makes him tradeable, in my opinion. Still, I don’t think Z would send him to a place where he wouldn’t be the starting catcher and I don’t see any positions open at the moment around the league.
Might be one of those cases where you wait for someone’s starting catcher to get injured first, then pursue the idea.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 28, 2012
You think Olivo deserves a starting job somewhere?
Lifetime .279 OBP….
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
Plays catcher and stays healthy.
the bar is a lot lower
seattlebruin - January 28, 2012
Occasional dingers!
Eyeball Kid - January 28, 2012
Oh I'm not saying he doesn't deserve to rot on a bench somewhere as a backup
but its a little too much to think he deserves to start.
Edgar for Pres - January 28, 2012
I have irrational like for Olivo. Regarding Jesus coming he said
wazzu93 - January 29, 2012
Kind of irrelevant what I think.
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 29, 2012
I wish we were GMs. I would crap on Olivo's dreams so fast. He'd be an Astro by the end of the week.
Edgar for Pres - January 29, 2012
If I may... if you were the GM..
You’re the one who signed him in the first place. Repent!
The Typical Idiot Fan - January 29, 2012
Hah....yeah and I'm sure there would be plenty of other crappy players littering my roster.
Edgar for Pres - January 30, 2012
Thoughts on relievers
I agree with your points about the placement of the relievers, it is a bit perplexing. Ruffin really does not have the plus-plus stuff to give him the kind of upside to rank him that high while Wilhelmsen is rather old. I really would take some of the younger starting pitching talent or raw/high upside positional talent in the system than them.
Quick question, what are your thoughts on Pryor? Statistically, he had a very nice second-half of the season in AA that I think went largely unnoticed. His seasonal age was only 21, which is still on the young side for AA in the first go around. I have not seen an updated scouting report on him for a year but if he has somewhere near the same stuff he had when he was drafted, I could see him being the top relief prospect in the system.
Since Leuke left, the upper parts of the system are stretched on relief talent and the lower end has no real standout performers yet. Morban is probably the closest competitor but he also had a rough first half and does not have anywhere near the pure stuff that Pryor has.
tdot mariner fan - January 27, 2012
I think Jay would agree with you...
“I’d probably go with Pryor as our closer of the future, but that’s me.”
Kenneth Arthur - January 27, 2012
Yay reading comprehension
To elaborate a little, Pryor’s stuff might be the best of any of our relievers, but he was out at the beginning of the season and started out pretty slowly due to some elbow tendonitis. That’s smoke and not fire, but would still be enough of a concern for some to drop him a bit.
JY - January 27, 2012
Wow, I have no idea how I missed that/or forgot that so quickly, I did read the entire article
I am just really surprised that Ruffin is rating higher than Pryor. Even Sickels has him as a B- saying,
Borderline C+: His upside is limited, but he’s ready now, and while he doesn’t have classic closer stuff, it would not surprise me to see him get a shot in that role eventually".
It is interesting to hear about the tendonitis, I did not know about that. It would be nice to see Pryor make it and give us a decent chance at a cheap elite reliever. Looking at linescores is not the same.
By the way, good to see you are still doing stuff after finishing at MarinersMinors altthough I will miss it after reading it for I don’t know 5+ years now, I think.
tdot mariner fan - January 27, 2012
Conor's remarks in the handbook were pretty darned positive.
Since he has the scouting contacts, I’d take that as good.
And yeah, I will kind of miss doing the write-ups, and feel bad about people not having them, but I’m gaining 10-15 hours a week by not doing them which is no small thing. I probably wouldn’t have gone into as much depth as I did today if not for the fact that it’s just easier for me to get this kind of thing done on a Friday.
JY - January 27, 2012
convert montero to 3b!!!
dont you think its worth a try?
brodiewr - January 27, 2012
No
Jeff Sullivan - January 27, 2012
No this is the worst idea I've ever heard
And I once tried substituting sour cream in for milk in a milkshake
Dewey N - January 27, 2012
speaking of conversions
you can just buy plain yogurt and convert it to sour cream by adding some salt
brodiewr - January 27, 2012
Please capitalize on LookOut Landing
Dewey N - January 27, 2012
My uncle once put mayo on his Christmas pudding, because apparently that bowl got left out during the dish clearing.
That was almost 20 years ago, and he is STILL reminded about it to this day!
Aussie Mariner - January 27, 2012
No, the worst idea would be converting Smoak to third, texting Calabro about it and having him read it on air.
Mayo - January 27, 2012
Actually, I think moving Montero to shortstop would be worse
however you announced it . . .
The Ancient Mariner - January 31, 2012
Boy, you crazy.
Tucci Mane - January 27, 2012
I stared at this for way too long waiting for him to blink.
w00tah - January 27, 2012
Worst gif I have ever seen.
Boots. - January 29, 2012
You think Wedge's obsession with "eyes" is because he sees this in the mirror every day?
J0SER - January 30, 2012
Cross this with the Crazy Boromir gif
he’d fit right in. (“What we need at third base is a ninja . . . or a wizard . . . a ninja wizard! Who shoots laser beams out his eyes! That would be cool.”)
The Ancient Mariner - January 31, 2012
He looks strangely like Jack Nicholson.
beastwarking - February 1, 2012
Why
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
Absolutely.
CapSea - January 27, 2012
Only if they convert Figgins into being the actual third base, first
Chris_FB - January 27, 2012
Not as rediculous as Miguel Cabrera at 3rd in 2012.
If Montero could play passable defense at 3rd, which I don’t think is an unreasonable expectation of a converted catcher, I think that would be a good situation for the current roster and for Montero’s future. Mike Sweeney is a similar body type with similar hitting prowess who caught for the first 5 years of his career, and if he had not maybe he would’nt have become such a lemon due to his injuries.
brodiewr - January 27, 2012
It's much more ridiculous than Cabrera playing 3B.
Cabrera has a history of playing 3B and isn’t being asked to learn an entirely new position. Jesus Montero has never played anything but catcher at the professional level. I’m also pretty sure it is unreasonable to expect Montero to play passable defense at 3B.
KC Mariner - January 27, 2012
I'm just saying, give him a few reps at spring training and it wont hurt.
For all I know they’ve been drilling him on it for years and he still boots every ground ball.
brodiewr - January 27, 2012
That sounds like a waste of reps that could be used instead to try and help improve him as a catcher.
Patrick Stites - January 27, 2012
If the Yankees have been drilling Montero on 3B for years we'd know.
KC Mariner - January 27, 2012
Excellent point
dnc - January 28, 2012
But Brad Pitt said it was easy for catchers to switch to the infield.
themanleyman - February 5, 2012
Jose Montero has never, ever played third base
Miguel Cabrera has.
It is significantly more ridiculous.
cwel87 - January 27, 2012
I heard Montero played third base before he signed with the yankees.
After signing he switched to catching. Not that I’m implying it is not ridiculous that he play third base now.
neel - January 27, 2012
Jose Montero has never, ever played catcher
(Cue up the baseball-reference searches for catching Jose Montero)
dnc - January 28, 2012
JESUS
cwel87 - January 28, 2012
17 games in 1997
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=monter001jos
the other side - January 28, 2012
Make that 27.
Sounds like he could start.
the other side - January 28, 2012
Let's convert Felix to 3b!
He’s been so good as a pitcher, I bet he’d make a really great third baseman!
Comma - January 27, 2012
We already know he has a great throwing arm and can hit for power
Punkhazard - January 27, 2012
At 22 years old,
its not unheard of to yet occupy a different spot on the baseball field. Each position is not a different species of man.
brodiewr - January 27, 2012
Except it sort of kind of is at the big league level.
Cascadian Man - January 27, 2012
Mike Carp, Wil Myers, Yonder Alonso
Lots of guys convert to corner OF at the big league level. 3B’s a bit different but it’s not unheard of.
Moot point though I think Montero sticks at C.
valencia - January 27, 2012
A buddy from work was at Alonso's infamous LF start at Wrigley Field.
I think it still keeps him up at night. Maybe with some time he could have stuck in the OF, but damn was that game ugly.
KC Mariner - January 28, 2012
MLB isn't little league.
It takes a lot of study and hard work to change positions and some are more demanding than others. 3B isn’t an easy position and taking a guy built like Montero who has no background at that position as a professional and deciding to move him isn’t just something the Mariners should do on a whim. There’s gaping holes at C and DH on the team already, Montero fills both of them, why try to get him to fill another?
KC Mariner - January 27, 2012
Because he'd have a lot more value there if he proves he can handle the position?
I’m not saying I would suggest that the Mariners make this move, but there have been countless examples of teams moving players to an unfamiliar position. Dustin Ackley being a recent example. As far as we know, it’s entirely within the realm of possibility that he could make this move and learn to play the position well. It’s certainly something I could see the Mariners trying at some point, just to see him at third and gauge whether there’s potential for him to adapt to the position. Teams do things like this all the time, and sometimes it works out better than you could expect.
nathaniel dawson - January 28, 2012
He would have more value at 3B if he could handle the position, that's true.
The problem is that Seager is a much more likely bet to handle 3B in 2012 and going forward then Montero. Seager might not be the long term answer at 3B, but for a team with as many question marks as the Mariners have with their younger players, why add yet another by switching Montero’s position? If he proves to be unable to handle catching after this season then it would make sense to explore a position switch if there’s a hole at that position. If Seager exceeds all expectations this season there might not be a hole at 3B going into the off season.
KC Mariner - January 29, 2012
Let's do it!
Poochie - January 28, 2012
And here I thought I was going to read 200+ comments about prospects.
What a waste of time above reading such nonsense.
the tourist - January 28, 2012
Of course, you know I don't mean the actual comments about prospects.
the tourist - January 28, 2012
So many flags.
Kermit. - January 28, 2012
Same here
I was so excited to read this thread.
Very disappointing.
dnc - January 28, 2012
Given that he outright stated no desire to engage in debate.
I was really hoping that more of LL would just ignore SheaWasBettor instead of futilely engaging once the motive became clear, but that attitude is causing too much of a distraction and wasn’t adding anything of value. It won’t change LL’s reputation for banning people after one minor wayward step from our rules (something we have never done), but he or she was given more than enough polite critiques and posting time and showed no acknowledgement of being any part of a problem.
LL welcomes diverse and differing opinions. But there are guidelines:
-The person making the non-standard claim is going to have the burden of proof. Standard claims have data behind them.
-Be courteous. All people deserve respect at least until they fail to return it.
Those aren’t special to LL. It’s common decency and some members here could have handled their responses to him better on that second point. To anyone who has further concerns, you can e-mail me. The link is below.
Matthew - January 28, 2012
Lookout Landing: don't be an idiot unless you're prepared to face the consequences
Comma - January 30, 2012
Or
Scruffy Lefty - January 31, 2012
Guys! Prospects!
Four aces! And dingers!
WhyGodWhy - January 28, 2012
Question
Has Carlos Triunfel completely fallen out of the the top prospects list because no one knows how he will recover from his injuries, or was there been performance issues that I can’t seem to really find on the internets?
InSpokane - January 29, 2012
There were some remarks up the page on it.
Ctrl + F is a lovely thing to have. Anyway, that covered his offense somewhat , the defense these days is pretty much that he’s capable of playing short now and his arm is his best tool, which covers for certain deficiencies he might experience in his range. Since his offense doesn’t really show much indication that it will improve, thanks to a wretched approach, he’s probably not much more than a back-up/utility type.
JY - January 29, 2012
Thanks for rehashing.
I think I missed it when I skimmed through some the not so useful comments.
InSpokane - January 29, 2012
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