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Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariner

As we've talked about, Japanese starter Hisashi Iwakuma first really appeared on the North American radar last offseason, when he was posted and the Oakland A's submitted a high bid of $19.1 million. The A's and Iwakuma, though, couldn't agree on a contract, and Iwakuma returned to Japan. I'd like to take you back for a moment:

Japanese media had reported that Oakland made a four-year proposal worth $15.25 million. In terms of annual salary, it is equal to what Iwakuma made with the Eagles of Japan's Pacific League.

"Their offer was low and they weren't sincere," [agent] Nomura said.

Okay, now keep that in mind. After the 2011 season, Iwakuma became a free agent. Recently, he's been linked to the Mariners, and, Jerry Crasnick, just a little while ago:

Free agent Hisashi Iwakuma has agreed on one-year deal with Mariners

Further:

Deal will pay Iwakuma a guaranteed $1.5M. He can earn $4.9M with awards and incentive bonuses based on starts and IP.

In December 2010, Iwakuma walked away from a reported $15.25 million over four years. In January 2012, he's signed for $1.5 million and one year, with a chance to make another $3.4 million given health and success. I'm not saying that Iwakuma probably regrets not signing with the A's, because nobody should want to sign with the A's, but he just signed for 10% the guaranteed money.

Of course, there's a pretty good reason for that. The 30-year-old Iwakuma missed significant time with a shoulder injury last season. He came back from it, and he's healthy now, but his velocity dropped, so there are more questions than there used to be. Salary + questions = reduced salary.

Even with the injury, and possibly because of the injury, this looks like a heck of a deal for the Mariners. The worst-case scenario is that Iwakuma goes crazy and kills all of the team's good players. The realistic worst-case scenario is that Iwakuma is bad or hurt or both, and the M's are out $1.5 million. That's not much. If Iwakuma starts hitting his incentives, which begin at 20 starts and 140 innings, he's probably pitching well, and more than earning the money. This is practically all upside.

And because it's a one-year contract, there's no future risk. That also means that Iwakuma could go somewhere else in 2013 if he's good, but he'd probably be open to re-signing with the Mariners if that's something the Mariners want to do. They'll cross that bridge several months from now.

We've talked a lot about Iwakuma lately. I don't need to re-hash it. It's hard to say whether he'll be good or bad or okay. His stuff could work, or his stuff could not work. But it's fun to consider the Hiroki Kuroda possibility, and it's just nice to see the Mariners making a Major League move. Welcome, Hisashi Iwakuma. Be awesome.

Star-divide

Iwakuma

Stats

2 recs  |  161 comments

Comments

Johjima is catching

Wonder if Rob Johnson could catch that fork ball.

Hoping that Olivo can catch it.
Or Jaso.
I have more faith in Jaso's ability to block pitches than Olivo. But only just so.
Ah I miss him :-(
It's gonna be cool when we trade him to the Angels for Mike Trout at the trade deadline
I suppose the one year deal is understandable on his part if he wants to establish some value here and then go for the bigger paycheck next year.
Thought you were going to go with an upside-down Iwakuma photo

Anyway, sweet deal. Obviously leaves us room to fit Prince Fielder into the budget. Because everything relates to Fielder.

Reported in Japan that the deal was inferior to other teams.

Other teams involved: O’s (who signed Wada earlier this offseason) and A’s (hahahaha).

1. Hahahahaha fuck you, Oakland

2. That fork ball looks nasty.
3. I love this deal.

SHUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUTO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just practicing. Crowing for him to throw his shuuto (since it’s reportedly his out pitch) is probably better than HI-SA-SHI, HI-SA-SHI.

I love this signing. So nice to see a cheap acquisition that isn’t blue light special shopping / large item pickup day.

Iwakuma, bitches
Incentive laden contracts are hot and sexy!

Fuck you, Figgins!!!!

Damn, that's a good deal for the M's

Asides for ~100 fewer innings, the shoulder that kept him out at the beginning of the year, his stats didn’t particularly reflect all that much of a difference- hits per nine in line with career norms, HR rate at career norms, K/9 rate at career norms, BB/9 rate at career norms. The loss of those four MPH or so is going to make him a lot more hittable than he might have been if he was still throwing in the low-to-mid ’90s, but at least the dimensions at Safeco will help in that regard, not hurt.

Does anybody know what his current velocity is?

I was watching some Japanese highlights from the WBC, and the fastest pitch I saw thrown was 146kph, which is roughly 91mph (90.7 or so). The shuuto and forkballs were sitting in the mid 80s.

What really stuck out, though, was his command on the fastball. Catchers mitt barely moves. At least one source reports that he gets an above average amount of ground balls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d3t27GaLsA

One part of that video claims he throws a...

“hyaku-go-jyu-kilo” straight (fastball), which is roughly 93mph. The loss in velocity since then may not make much of a difference, if his WBC performance is to be believed.

Maybe we should have signed the catcher too
How much money do you think the team has?

Gawd but you’re free with our yen!

Yeah, but he caught the ball! His glove barely moved!

A catcher that is good for at least one thing! Exclamation points!

He used to throw

Low-to-mid 90s, topping off at 95 MPH or so.

With a few more years tacked on to his frame, and post-shoulder injury, he now throws high-80s-to-low-90s, topping off around 92 MPH or so.

He was primarily a groundball pitcher in Japan, but considering the more power-oriented talent pool in the MLB that didn’t exist in the NPB, I would expect more flyballs- especially considering his fastball will be topping out in the low-90s.

Iwakuma bringing his control with him will be something that will be interesting to see- and probably will be key in whether or not he turns out to be an effective MLB player or not. As I’m sure we all know, that hasn’t been the case with a lot of former NPB starters breaking into the MLB (Research compiled HERE). Sometimes, looking at Hiroki Kuroda or Masato Yoshii, for example, the pitcher’s ability to control the ball didn’t change when they began using the MLB regulation ball. Other times, looking at Dice-K or Keiichi Yabu, it didn’t. There’s a billion likely variables and reasons as to why/how players retain/lose their control when making the transition, so it’s hard to point out any one specific reason.

But they changed balls in Japan

which supposedly suppressed a lot of offense, so his numbers staying the same may actually mean getting worse. Just sayin.

The numbers that would have been effected would have primarily been walks and strikeouts

Overall offense, that has more to do with the hitter, and the ball’s impact on them. Regarding just the pitcher himself, the new ball could have screwed around with their control- it’s heavier, denser, slightly bigger (closer to the MLB regulation ball). His walk rate and strikeout rate didn’t fluctuate in any major way, so the transition to the new didn’t adversely affect his ability to hit the strike zone, nor did any short-term problems related to his shoulder injury spring up during the season, or this winter so far.

Seattle must be the wormhole in space through which Japanese players travel

to play in Major league baseball.

We're like Deep Space Nine over here.
That would make you the Garek.
Iwakuma = Rock Bear!
Normally yes, but...

岩 = Rock
隈 = Corner/Nook

The kanji for bear is 熊.

So sadly that translation is not right. But perhaps if you think about it, his name can be looked at as “cornerstone”. So perhaps that’s even better.

Baker said that people still call him "The Bear" and that bear pictures show up whenever he's pitching.
Aw, great. I bet I know what's coming.





Good thing he didn't go to the Rays?
Like they need an excuse
Good thing he didn't go to Penn State?

Topical humor!

Because he's fat!
Good luck with Iwamuka, Mariners got a great price on him

I don’t possibly see how this could go wrong for the Mariners, the only way they lose value on this signing is if somehow Iwakuma is injured and out for the season, even then a $1.5 million dollar risk isn’t a bad one, only upside from here

Congratulations on landing Ewok-Uma

I really wanted the A’s to get him last year, not because I know beans about him as a pitcher, but just because I wanted lots of excuses to refer to him like this

(or better yet, photoshop the two together….)

It would be worth the inaccuracy to post a picture of Heidi Klum and say 'close enough'
lolololol
Would it be wrong to state that I would like nothing more that to punch you in the nads for your chatspeak comment?
Ironic chatspeak is allowed in only certain circumstances.

And for only certain posters.

Yes. I know.

It also wasn’t helpful that my TIC comment had a an error.

Context is everything. Watch.

I can’t wait for Iwakuma to join his countryman,

Well played, sir.
Gary Rebus is proud.
Aw man if she just moves her arm a little
You are a dog.
Plus, that is a Lady with an Ewok head.
She'll put her shirt all the way on?
Wicket-Thurman?

I don’t get it.

Aren't there any 'Merican free agents?
I don't think so, no.
We figured that the Japanese have lower expectations.
D'ey took our jobs!
He took our jerbs
So what does this mean for the Moyer/Millwood/other veteran SP possibilities?

Do we still pursue them or do we let Furbush/Beavan/Paxton/Hultzen fight it out for the final rotation spot?

Moyer is old and not good.
Aw I want him back
You had your Griffey and now you can still have him.
I think you mean Robert
I didn't want Griffey. I want Moyer!
Break his left arm?

Retire!

Moyer projects to have a LUPA of .105x

And a KLASH% of 62. Those numbers probably put him in the top 5 of Cy Young voting. Hopefully he does that pitching for the M’s

Huh
It's pretty technical and difficult to explain

But the summary is that the above stats were created to cherry pick other stats to benefit M’s pitchers or possible future M’s pitchers and make them look better.

For some reason people aren't clamoring for the team to re-sign Ben Broussard even though he was on the same 2006 team as Moyer and Sherrill.
Yet

People aren’t clamoring for Broussard yet. That is phase 3.

We should bring back Petagine and then actually use him.
He retired to focus on his music or something.
I'd be interested in signing Francis or Millwood still if we wanted to trade Vargas (seems unlikely we'd get a good return, but the market seems inflated on the whole)

Otherwise, I don’t think the upside of any of those types is worth the money. I think Beavan could do essentially the same thing and I’d rather see him get the shot.

Hisashi Iwakuma for slightly more money than George Sherill?

Yep. I’ll take it!

I don't see how anyone could complain about this deal.
2012 Cy Young Winner Hisashi Iwakuma might complain

But then he’ll sign a new deal worth a squintillion dollars and forget he ever played for the Mariners.

But they need bats!
Have they checked the belfry?
I got a couple bats around here.

I should bring them down to the Front Office. “Hey, I was talking to some other Mariners fans and they told me you guys might need these.”

How big are these bats?

Are we talking regulation, or….?

This size.

Holy shit! Cats have wings?!?!
I don't know about you guys, but I'm thinking next season is going to be amazing.
You said the same thing for the last two years...
I was right about the minor league seasons!... mostly.
That girl is rather cheery for someone about to be mauled by a giant flying hell-rat
She is finally going to own a pair of shoes.

I’d be excited too.

The scariest thing ever.
Only if it has rabies, which is probably most cases.
Rabies or not that thing gives me the heebie-jeebies.
What about this fellow?

I'm really happy I can click the subject line and make it go away.
And this guy?

How long do we control his rights?

Just the one year? Or do we get 6 like players called up from the minors?

One year.

Signed as free agent.

He's essentially a free agent.

My belief is that he’s also free to sign with whomever he wants to sign with when this contract is completed.

Please feel free to correct me if I am mistaken.

He would be under team control for 6 year except

most contracts of this type stipulate that the signing team relinquish all rights. My guess is that with this low of a value the M’s signed away their rights.

Correct

Because they are technically rookies without any MLB accrued time, their contracts have clauses in them that make them normal free agents when the contract expires.

Oakland's offer wasn't sincere, eh? Figures.

I can totally see Billy Beane opening up a briefcase full of Monopoly money, hoping to dupe Iwakuma into believing that’s what American currency looks like.

The A's have enough money to buy monopoly money?

Or did they just pick it off the ground when people were throwing it at Arod?

"We'll be paying you in Canadian currency"
That wouldn't have been so bad actually.
Yes and no

Last year, Hisashi Iwakuma wanted “Barry Zito money” and time. Hisashi Iwakuma is not worth Barry Zito money or time. Barry Zito is not worth Barry Zito money or time.

So, while Beane probably was lowballing him, his expectations were way too high.

Bean: "Iwakuma, I don't think you realize how much money we're offering you."

“You’ve probably never seen that much, except maybe in the movies.”

I assure you, something gets lost in the translation…

Maybe Iwakuma was expecting Brad Pitt...
"The worst-case scenario is that Iwakuma goes crazy and kills all of the team's good players."

Yet being a Mariner Iwakuma wouldn’t qualify as a serial killer. That is upsetting.

I get it

Were not a good team

Him recieving much less money than he could have gotten earlier doesn't even factor in the drop in the value of the dollar compared to the Yen.

Down about 10% since Dec 2010.

Love this deal, still cheap and with actual upside unlike Francis or Millwood.

[I haven’t read the Seattle Times comments but I’m guessing it’s something like “FIRE Z, WE NEED DINGURZ”]

I want both :(

But this deal is neat.

It's going to be awesome when he's way better than Darvish.
I'm just started thinking how cool it's going to be when Iwakuma starts game two in Japan.
And gets payback on the A's.
And Ichiro hits four dingers while batting in the three hole!!
And Kawasaki makes a triple play.

Nintendo immediately sells the team back to Japan.

Nintendo sells the team back to Japan?
We'd probably be set with a major world government holding the purse strings.
Lets hope they don't sell to Greece.
But on the bright side, we'd still have more money than the Dodgers.
Japanese food > Greek food

Does this count as chatspeak?

Spanikopita, gyros, baklava, pastitsio, feta, dandelions, olives. You're wrong.
Sushi, yakisoba, takoyaki, teriyaki, wasabi, SUSHI, miso.
Both sides win.
Actually......

Depending upon how you look at it, Japan has the most amount of debt in the world as a percentage of GDP, but debt per capita has them doing somewhat alright.

Maybe he will pull a Roger Clemens and stare down the management box while walking off the field.
I humbly accept this birthday present that the Mariners have acquired for me
Congratulations!

You’re birthday present was an incentive to give strangers more of your money!

I can't stop Iwakumming
What?

No photoshopped pic to illustrate what you are talking about? On second thought, thank you

I love Iwakuma!
Iwakuma song idea...

Robyn – Konichiwa Bitches.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3Co9GxHJg0&ob=av2e

Well, Rosenthal says we may still be interested

In a veteran starter, and that we’re in on Paul Maholm.

I would like to see this happen for the freakouts from the “we need bats!” club. Although with a couple of arms around to compete for the #5 slot, bats might be the better way to go.

I've wanted us to go after Maholm since the beginning of this offseason.
Congrats, Ms fans!

Can’t wait to see this guy pitch.

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