For those of you who read my post about the most extreme pitches hit for home runs during the 2011 season, this post is obviously inspired by that one. Earlier today I already put together and published the Mariners' version of the home run post. This is a joke about how the Mariners didn't hit any home runs. Here I want to examine something more Mariners-appropriate. I decided something more Mariners-appropriate would be bad swings.
Below you will find the five worst pitches at which a Mariners batter swung last year. For our purposes, the five worst pitches are the five pitches the furthest away from the center of the strike zone. I guess you could argue that these aren't actually the five worst swings, since there could've been just horrible swings at regular pitches. Maybe a guy fell down. But I would argue that the worst swings are the swings with the lowest chance of succeeding. Swings at pitches way out of the strike zone are probably the swings with the lowest chance of succeeding.
"This is pretty negative, Jeff," you might say. So were the 2011 Seattle Mariners. Did you watch the Mariners? Did you continue to watch the Mariners long after they faded away from relevance? I did. I watched them through to the bitter fuckin end. I'm entitled to treat their 2011 season however I want, and at the moment this is how I want.
You might assume that a countdown of the 2011 Mariners' five worst swings would be 100% Carlos Peguero. You'd be wrong. It's only 40% Carlos Peguero, which is twice as high as anybody else. It's 0% Miguel Olivo. You wouldn't believe how many times this made me re-check the data.
Ichiro seems to have one of these every few games. Always has. Before, we laughed them off. "Haha, he's deceiving them into thinking he's mortal." "Next time I bet he'll get a hit on that!" This has long been a part of the Ichiro experience. But with the other bits of the Ichiro experience possibly changing, these don't stand to be nearly so cute going forward. "THAT'S A BALL" "HOLY SHIT HOW DO YOU STILL NOT KNOW THAT THAT IS A BALL, YOU ARE 38 YEARS OLD AND VERY EXPERIENCED"
The side view replay really drives home just how bad a swing this was. Not only did Peguero swing at a bad pitch. You see the ball? You see how it's angled up? That's because it already bounced. As shown in this screenshot, Peguero's bat had long since cleared the zone before the ball even arrived. So the eye was wrong, and the timing was wrong. I know those two things aren't independent of one another but still, wow, so wrong. When this replay began, Dave Sims thought it was a replay of an impressive foul ball Peguero had hit earlier. Instead it was a replay of Peguero striking out on a terrible pitch. That's the essence of Carlos Peguero right there.
This is Brendan Ryan. Before Brendan Ryan, there was Josh Wilson. Before Josh Wilson, there was Jack Wilson. Before Jack Wilson, there was Ronny Cedeno. Before Ronny Cedeno, there was Yuniesky Betancourt. Before Yuniesky Betancourt, there was Mike Morse. Before Mike Morse, there was Wilson Valdez. Before Wilson Valdez, there was Jose Lopez. I don't remember the last Mariners shortstop I didn't expect to swing at this pitch.
Right before this swing and miss, Peguero fouled off two or three hanging breaking balls smack dab in the zone. This was Peguero's 11th start. He would make 32 more starts. For the duration of the Mariners' fling with contention, their regular in left field was Carlos Peguero, and not Mike Carp. Carlos Peguero might be the weirdest decision I can remember the Mariners making. I don't just mean last year. What's been weirder?
Checked swings are still swings, sometimes, and while it's kind of a bummer that the countdown has to end like this, we're talking 49 inches. The runner-up came in at 43.9 inches. This was so far and away the worst swing of the Mariners' season that I'd feel worse if I didn't include it. With this strikeout, Bradley extended a hitless streak to 20 at bats. A few days later, he was ejected and suspended for arguing a play in which he wasn't involved. A few days after that, he was ejected for arguing a called strike. A couple days after that, he was designated for assignment to make room for Carlos Peguero. And that's when things got ugly.
The Mariners' 26 worst swings were all swinging strikes. Their 27th-worst swing was a foul ball, hit by Carlos Peguero. Their 80th-worst swing was a groundout, by Carlos Peguero. Their 86th-worst swing was an infield single, by Ichiro. It came on a pitch 27.0 inches from the center of the strike zone, thrown by Fausto Carmona.
Of the Mariners' 100 worst swings, 13 belonged to Peguero, 24(!) belonged to Ichiro, and 11 belonged to Olivo. One belonged to Dustin Ackley. Zero belonged to Jack Cust.
7 recs | 48 comments
I feel like I watched all of these. Over and over.
All season long.
msb - February 10, 2012
This brings me back to the bad place
OlSalty - February 10, 2012
This brings me back to the Mariners.
harkening - February 10, 2012
Is there a difference? (Until 2013...)
ichirofan5197 - February 11, 2012
I'm still not sure if the Carlos Peguero Experience really happened or if I hallucinated the whole thing.
Benne - February 10, 2012
In all seriousness, it's the most frustrating thing from last year
That they’d keep running him out there for days on end despite the fact that they were riding a historically great run by their starting pitching towards .500 baseball. I realize the lineup was starved for a long ball threat, but it was apparent watching him how over matched he was during every at bat. Just a big old dude flailing wildly at every pitch. I’m generally of a positive opinion about Z and Wedge and the general direction the team is heading, but I’d really like to know who to blame for the Carlos Peguero Experience.
_Hutch_ - February 10, 2012
Carlos Peguero isn't old.
Kirk - February 10, 2012
I was using the colloquial old
Like in Dukes of Hazard.
_Hutch_ - February 10, 2012
For what it's worth I understood perfectly
Though I like to use “ol” instead of “old” when using it in that meaning
Dewey N - February 11, 2012
Carlos Peguero turns 25 this month.
He’s just really big.
harkening - February 10, 2012
"I don't remember the last Mariners shortstop I didn't expect to swing at this pitch."
Alex Rodriguez?
Ride the Apocalypse - February 10, 2012
/
I imagine so!
Aly Edge - February 10, 2012
Carlos Guillen?
harkening - February 10, 2012
Only because he lacked the strength to swing.
Damn tuberculosis.
Llewdor - February 12, 2012
Brendans looks the worst to me at face value.
The other three got their full moneys worth or realized they fucked up and tried to stop. There was never a good thing that was going to happen with Ryan’s swing. Just ugly.
the other side - February 10, 2012
Holy crap. Milton Bradley was on our team last year.
SethGrandpa - February 10, 2012
That was my exact reaction when I saw him on the list.
Kyleo84 - February 11, 2012
Oh god Bad Ichiro
The real reason I got concerned last year. Seems like he showed way more often than previous years.
MT Olson - February 10, 2012
Yeah. We've all been familiar with Bad Ichiro and Good Ichiro. We see both every year.
For awhile, when Bad Ichiro showed up, the skeptics would say “That’s it! They’ve figured him out! I told you he can’t hit in the MLB!” Then Good Ichiro would quickly show up, maybe the next week, maybe the next game, maybe the next at-bat, maybe even the next pitch!
Then everyone got used to Bad Ichiro as mild bumps along the road to the Hall. Bad Ichiro would show up and as Jeff said, it’d be cute. Most would see it, shake their heads and think, “Oh, Ichiro! You silly billy!”
But as time went on and Ichiro got old, the skeptics came out again. Bad Ichiro would show up and they’d say, “Okay! You were right! He WAS actually good, but now he’s too old and needs to retire!” Then, reliably, Good Ichiro would show up and put them all to shame.
That is, until last year. Yeah, Good Ichiro WOULD show up eventually to relieve Bad Ichiro, but sometimes it’d be much later than usual and then he wouldn’t stick around nearly long enough to shut up the skeptics. And thus, 2011 was a dark time in Seattle.
I hope to see more Good Ichiro in 2012.
Ride the Apocalypse - February 10, 2012
Empirical evidence
MT, this Pitch F/X analysis at ESPN supports your observation.
MMonkman - February 11, 2012
No it doesn't. That just says his batting average was lower on the swings he did take out of the strike zone
Matthew - February 11, 2012
Does facepalm count as chatspeak?
Oh man, how right you are.
And the article doesn’t say a number of other things, too. First, the article neglects to mention that 2009 was a pretty good Ichiro year — in terms of BA and OPS+ this ranks as his 2nd best season.
What the article also doesn’t say is how much lower his 2011 batting average was on swings in the strike zone. Reverse engineering (ok, using simple algebra) his in-the-zone performance from the info given in the chart, I get 155 hits and a .367 BA for 2009, and 140 hits & .309 BA in 2011.
MMonkman - February 13, 2012
Cricket!
Bearskin Rugburn - February 10, 2012
Swinging and missing in cricket doesn't matter.
Unless the ball hits the stumps, then you’re out bowled.
Or unless it hits the batsman, did not pitch outside leg stump, did not hit the batsman outside the line of the off stump (unless the batsman is not playing at the ball) and is judged to be going on to hit the stumps.
…then you’re out leg before wicket (LBW).
Aussie Mariner - February 10, 2012
and people say cricket is complex
pdb - February 10, 2012
To be fair, LBW pretty much the most complicated rule in the book.
Admittedly it happens far more frequently than say, a balk. Which just confuses the crap out of me.
Aussie Mariner - February 11, 2012
DRS solves all problems!
EnglishMariner - February 14, 2012
And don't forget there are several different popular variations of the sport. :-)
In truth, it would be kind of fun to have games that lasted days, such as in First Class Cricket. Well, unless… you know… Mariners. That could get old fast.
TIFO - February 11, 2012
Okay.
but… they do bounce the ball, right?
Bearskin Rugburn - February 10, 2012
Most of the time.
Generally a ball that doesn’t bounce (full toss) is bad – easy to hit. A full toss above the waist is called a no ball, which means the batter cannot be given out, the team gets a run for free, and the bowler has to re-bowl the ball.
A yorker on the other hand is a ball that reaches the batsman right as it hits the ground is good – it’s really hard to play.
A half volley, where the ball bounces just before the batsman is also bad, because it’s easy to drive.
Aussie Mariner - February 11, 2012
The sunny side of the diamond
It would be fascinating to see the same analysis showing how bad the opposition looked swinging at pitches thrown by the Mariner staff. (Hint hint, thanks in advance.) (And here’s hoping there aren’t too many Pineda and Fister offerings to depress us further.)
MMonkman - February 10, 2012
So they watched Milton Bradley check swing at that pitch and thought they needed someone that's willing to commit.
CapSea - February 10, 2012
Watch the catchers and these gifs are become fine examples of what Rob Johnson does on pitches out of and IN the strike zone!
Ride the Apocalypse - February 10, 2012
How are pitches meassured that bounce in front of the plate?
Are they projected?
Schuxu - February 11, 2012
I was expecting a poll before the article began
to ask us how many of the 5 we thought would be Peguero. I figured three. I’d actually forgotten about Milton Bradley. Wish I could still say that.
Bald Eagle 1313 - February 11, 2012
And now I'm ready for spring training. Mariners!
VivaAyala - February 11, 2012
Is there more than one way to measure the worstness of Peguero's swings.
I’m thinking measure inches/feet/seconds from the ball to Peguero’s bat as they cross paths…or some similar hypothetical plane. 5 out of 5 then? I like watching Peguero play. I also like watching puppies step on their own ears. So damn adorable
Zamfir - February 11, 2012
This post was great
This is a silly question but in your pile of data is it broken down by pitch type or location. I was just wondering what the worst fastball somebody swung at and what the highest pitch was somebody swung at.
Edgar for Pres - February 11, 2012
All of them are bad but I feel like Peguero is the only one who just doesn't have a clue what he's swinging at
Ichiro swung at a bad pitch but still got his bat somewhat close to the ball. Ryan swung at a bad pitch and knew it before the ball got there so he basically just didn’t follow through. And Bradley swung at an amazingly bad pitch and tried to check his swing.
Peguero in both cases barely reacted in his swing to how bad those pitches were. Like he didn’t know they were bad until he saw where the catcher ended up with it.
OlSalty - February 11, 2012
Here's a better swing
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15981133
and Dave…
Felix Hernandez - February 11, 2012
Never gets old.
Eeyore hates figlet - February 11, 2012
The best thing about that:
Was hearing Dave call it. I can hardly type this.
extavernmouse - February 11, 2012
Scoring ahead of Felix
Adrian Beltre, Jeff Clement, and Willie Bloomquist. In what universe should Jeff Clement and Willie Bloomquist ever have been playing in a regular season baseball game at the same time?
YPbeau - February 14, 2012
"Zero belonged to Jack Cust"
I feel this is a subliminal message to try to get us to like Jack Cust as a Mariner.
Zewerr - February 11, 2012
I liked Jack Cust as a Mariner. Bases loaded walks are endearing.
Patrick Stites - February 12, 2012
Nah
Jackie Cust didn’t swing and miss at balls out of the strike zone, he reserved those for pitches grooved down the middle of the plate.
YPbeau - February 14, 2012
MC Hammer bobblehead.
Did anyone else notice that promotion in the background of #4 on the list? Oakland is indeed in trouble.
brugg - February 14, 2012 via mobile
This is why I love LL even though the team sucks.
Never die, Jeff.
EnglishMariner - February 14, 2012
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