A couple weeks ago, when we were recording a podcast, Matthew and I were talking about all the reasons Mariners fans have to be pretty optimistic about the season ahead. This might've been before we actually pressed "record" so I don't know if you heard this conversation, but I remarked to Matthew that I wanted to write a post about Justin Smoak. Then some time after the podcast I went through the Lookout Landing archives and found out that I wrote the post I wanted to write about Smoak last October. For many writers, this would be a deterrent. I'm going back to the well anyway. Who remembers shit from last October? Obviously I do not. So let's talk about Justin Smoak.
I've had Smoak on my mind ever since the podcast. Then I read this article from Larry Stone a few days ago. Remember, Smoak started strong last year before slipping into a ghastly slump, and we heard talk about thumb injuries. At the time, Smoak and the Mariners downplayed the significance, suggesting that Smoak was just caught in-between, or something. They all but said the injuries weren't a big deal. Now, in Stone's article, we have what I think is the first acknowledgment that the injuries were a big deal. As we figured. Some quotes:
"Yeah, it was bad," [Smoak] said. "I get jammed and my right thumb was messed up. Then I take a bad hop off the left thumb, and it was that big around (making a wide circle gesture) and I couldn't move it. It's hard to hit when you don't have your hands."
"I still felt I could play," [Smoak] said. "I knew I had one swing every time I went up to bat. I knew I wasn't going to swing three or four times. One swing is all I had."
Smoak didn't want to say too much, because he didn't want to go on the DL. The Mariners didn't want to say too much, because they didn't want opposing teams to try to take advantage. So we wound up with Smoak and the Mariners sticking it out, and Smoak not contributing at all. I mean that. I mean that Justin Smoak barely contributed at all while he was playing hurt.
It seems so obvious now that Smoak should've gone on the disabled list. I recall it being pretty obvious back then. He couldn't do anything. What makes it tricky is that we don't know how Smoak actually felt. The quote above is pretty grim, but if Smoak thought that he could play and help out, I guess he should've gotten some time to battle. He shouldn't have gotten as much time as he did. Once it became clear that Smoak couldn't drive the ball, he should've gotten a rest.
But what's important now isn't how Smoak was managed last season. That's last season's issue. What's important is figuring out what he is as a player. I put this in the last post about Smoak, but the numbers below say so much. Assuming an accurate injury window:
2011, Healthy: .270/.360/.470 (367 plate appearances)
2011, Injured: .130/.213/.176 (122 plate appearances)
The 2011, Healthy line comes with a .309 batting average on balls in play. That's probably a little high for a player like Smoak, but not significantly so. It's well within the expected range.
You take away the time that Smoak was playing with bad thumbs - the time that he had "one swing" every time he went to the plate - and he was a very good hitter. He wasn't a great hitter, even when you account for the ballpark, but he was a solid one, and at the age of 24. That's solid, with upside. That's more like the guy the Mariners thought they were getting when they traded Cliff Lee.
Because I'm a Mariners fan who wants the Mariners to be good, I might be a little too ready to accept the thumb injuries as an explanation. Maybe it wasn't about the thumbs. Maybe it was about something else. Maybe it was about something mental. Maybe it wasn't about anything. But then, doesn't it just make so much sense? If Smoak's thumbs hurt, wouldn't that affect his swing? If we know that Smoak's swing was affected by thumb injuries, isn't it fair to assume that his performance while hurt isn't representative of his true talent?
It's kind of like the Franklin Gutierrez situation. Gutierrez is, apparently, oodles better than he was last year, physically. He has his weight, strength and endurance back. His problems in 2011 had to do with his reduced strength and endurance. If he's back, am I really getting ahead of myself if I assume that Gutierrez will be way more productive? Felix is in better shape, but I don't really care. Mike Carp is in better shape, but I don't really care. I don't see how those things could have a significant effect on performance. It's really easy to see how a healthy Smoak and a healthy Gutierrez could take a statistical leap forward.
I don't mean to ignore or downplay the significance of Justin Smoak losing his father early in the season, by the way. That, obviously, is far more important than anything else from a lot of perspectives. But from an insensitive "how are the baseball players going to perform?" perspective, I don't know what to make of that. I don't know how losing a loved one might change one's performance. I do have a pretty good idea of how having hurt thumbs might change one's performance.
In Justin Smoak, I don't think the Mariners have a blossoming superstar. I doubt that Smoak ever bats .300. I doubt that Smoak ever slugs .550, or gets on base 40 percent of the time. But in Justin Smoak, I think the Mariners have a far better hitter than his 2011 numbers would suggest. He doesn't even necessary have to improve in 2012 to be good. I think he just needs to be healthy. And if he does improve further, well, terrific. He's young. He's recently been a top prospect. Young, recent top prospects frequently improve.
I have fewer questions going forward about Justin Smoak as a hitter than I have about Mike Carp as a hitter. Carp's coming off a season in which he struck out a lot and posted a higher BABIP than he's going to continue to post. I don't know quite what to make of Carp. I think I know more of what to make of Smoak. I think he's good. I think he's good, now. And I think he could get better. Smoak's a guy you should be excited about, and hopefully a year from now people will be over wanting the Mariners to bring in a slugging first baseman, because they'll already have one.
7 recs | 70 comments
Thank you.
Dude can hit. I have faith.
Teej - February 20, 2012
Baseball:
Where a broken face is one of the few injuries that can get a guy to sit out.
JY - February 20, 2012
I have never understood the rationale behind playing hurt.
I get that players don’t want to let down their teammates and think they can play through injury. However, 130/.213/.176 has to let down teammates more than admitting that you’re hurt. Allowing somebody to play well below replacement level for an extended period of time belies all logic.
mathgeek99 - February 20, 2012
I'm nowhere near a professional athlete
with the level of pride and ego that they must possess and even I have trouble voluntarily taking myself out in rec sports. It’s very easy to slip into the delusion that, regardless of the past, starting now, I can play through it.
Matthew - February 20, 2012
I met a former MLBer last weekend.
He tried to play through PARKINSON’S. FOR FOUR YEARS.
Graham MacAree - February 20, 2012
How is Petrick doing?
msb - February 21, 2012
Pretty ok all things considered
Graham MacAree - February 21, 2012
There was an interesting tv story on him and the surgery he underwent that is still online
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbr-CZtL7aw
msb - February 21, 2012
I had my nose broken in an intramural basketball game two years ago and, after spending 10 minutes bleeding all over the bathroom of the gym,
I went back and played the rest of the game. We’re all idiots.
abender20 - February 21, 2012
Yes, we are all idiots, even when it comes to rec sports.
But these are professionals. The teams pay millions of dollars a year to make sure they put the best product they can on the field.
I don’t fault Smoak much for continuing to play. Maybe 5%. It’s the coaches, trainers, and everyone else who is paid to make sure these guys are healthy and playing at the highest level that failed here. Even as we watched the product on the field from
our parent’s basementbehind the blog, we knew something was up. Some of us thought it was mental, with the passing of his father, or that maybe he had a nagging injury we didn’t know about. But many of us had a hunch.There’s no excuse for the staff to not have noticed something.
d0nkey - February 21, 2012
He's a human.
Humans engage in irrational and self-destructive behavior constantly. Habitually. Fucking, like, all the goddamned time. If you try to understand all the bizarre illogical things people do you’ll have a nervous breakdown by the time you’re 30. Sometimes you’ve just got to accept that people are crazy, unpredictable, irrational beings and play the ball where it lies. Or become a psychologist.
Terminator X - February 20, 2012
That said, I have a feeling that (despite whatever is told to the media)
it’s usually less about letting teammates down and more about letting one’s self down, in some manner. Combined with the death of his father it’s not hard to envision a scenario where he wants to keep playing because he doesn’t want to let down his family, or one where playing is a distraction. I think this is one of those situations where you give the guy a pass and move on, until it (i.e. playing through pain) becomes a pattern.
Terminator X - February 20, 2012
Sports has a tough it out and rub some dirt on it logic.
Even in high school, guys try to play hurt all the time. If you liked playing baseball why would you not try to play it?
Ballard Erik - February 20, 2012
No one wants to be the next Wally Pip.
joof - February 21, 2012
130/.213/.176
You’re basically the Seattle Mariner’s 3rd best option in the lineup with those numbers…
TeenWulff2 - February 22, 2012
Yep, I'm totally on board.
And I think he still might be a blossoming superstar.
Kyleo84 - February 20, 2012
If you don't mind me asking:
Do you think somewhere around the .270/.360/.470 line is a reasonable expectation going forward?
Aussie Mariner - February 20, 2012
I think that would be very reasonable
Maybe a little too high, but then there’s the young-and-might-improve factor. Call it ballpark.
Jeff Sullivan - February 20, 2012
Cheers.
Aussie Mariner - February 20, 2012
Gotta factor "but Mariners" into that
Matthew - February 20, 2012
Oh right
reduce all the numbers in the tenths place by one
Jeff Sullivan - February 20, 2012
Agreed
Looking back, he never showed all that much power in the minors. But if he wasn’t in Seattle, I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see a .300/.400/.520 line in a peak season. Heck, Sean Casey did that, albeit striking out a lot less. I didn’t know Smoak’s thumbs were that bad last year.
wobatus - February 20, 2012
Smoak On the Rise
No more bad thumbs. No more broken faces. No more broken hearts. Smoak is rising. Inhale deeply, M’s fans…
SandlotSam - February 20, 2012
Cause his name sounds like smoke!
the other side - February 20, 2012
No more puns
Aaron Campeau - February 20, 2012
What's wrong with puns?
Now, I agree smoke/Smoak puns have been overdone, but surely this is not a reason to ban all puns!
Link
I stand by the quote from the above link: ""The assumption that puns are per se contemptible … is a sign at once of sheepish docility and a desire to seem superior. Puns are good, bad, or indifferent, and only those who lacks the wit to make them are unaware of the fact" (while acknowledging that the smoke/Smoak puns may be the bad kind).
quacker27 - February 20, 2012
No more bad Justin Smoak puns means no more puns for most
If you have a good pun on your hands, you’ll know it. Also important to note; it almost certainly won’t come from Justin Smoak’s name.
cwel87 - February 20, 2012
Well thank you.
That clarification came Justin time.
quacker27 - February 20, 2012
This would not be an example of a good pun.
the other side - February 20, 2012
Seriously
cwel87 - February 20, 2012
And people rec'd this comment! Good job Lookout Landing commenters, you are officially the worst!
Dewey N - February 20, 2012
It was pretty obviously done ironicly
cedarA - February 20, 2012
You must not know LL well enough.
Patrick Stites - February 21, 2012
Oh, please.
I was just being facetious. I know that’s a bad pun.
quacker27 - February 20, 2012
I've been trying
to fit in a tea-smoked duck reference, but it is impossible.
wobatus - February 20, 2012
Are you kidding?
“That ball was tee-smoaked! DUCK!”
Tucci Mane - February 20, 2012
That's good
but it only works after he gets a hit. I didn’t see how I could work it in to this thread. A good pun I think is fine. Like some of the better Elvis Costello lyrics.
wobatus - February 21, 2012
Apparently lots more punching myself in the face, however
cwel87 - February 20, 2012
I think Ike Davis might be Smoak's doppleganger only with better luck on balls in play.
I’ve been looking at their numbers and their peripherals are eerily similar… only with a 60 point difference in career BABIP.
BaronVonBullshit - February 20, 2012
Davis
has had higher ISOs. He has hit some big bombs, kind of a lefty Kingman, and I think he has more raw power. Smoak should have higher averages in the long run, agreed, and although Ike walks, Smoak will likely walk more. Although maybe i’m being influenced by his bad thumb power last year. he did start off on a power binge.
wobatus - February 20, 2012
Before the injury what he was doing didn't really seem flukeish from the eye test
I really have no problem believing he can do that again
OlSalty - February 20, 2012
It really bothers me that he would consider playing without thumbs.
I understand he dosen’t want someone coming in and taking his spot away from him, but that was really hurting the team and the fans. If someone that worked for me did that, I would fire them. I would also fire the people who didn’t report that injury to me (if anyone else knew).
d0nkey - February 20, 2012
you also have to look at team depth
I’m sure the results ended up being worse the he or the team imagined but there wasn’t exactly a gaggle of players ready to be plugged into the 1st base slot.
v-Skippy - February 20, 2012
I feel like any player with a first basemen's mitt and two functional thumbs would've been an upgrade. Assuming it was as bad as those quotes make it sound.
d0nkey - February 20, 2012
Adam Kennedy?
ignacio - February 20, 2012
To repeat myself above
With the recent passing of his dad (and how much potential Smoak has) I think this is one of those situations where you give the guy a pass, a mulligan, and don’t make a big deal out of it until it becomes a pattern. You’d certainly have a good talk about the team’s stance on any such behavior going forward, but no need to freak out too much right now.
Terminator X - February 20, 2012
Jeff, yours and Matthew's captions are half the reason I read this site
Kouvre - February 20, 2012
They are very good.
Fearless Frog - February 20, 2012 via mobile
A healthy Smoak producing
Will make the Smoak and Montero comparisons actually fun. Especially if both slug like they were predicted to. On another note, reading things about Smoak’s thumbs, Wells’s vertigo, and that Travon Robinson needed glasses makes me wonder if the training staff should be replaced? You can only do so much to prevent an injury or illness but you should be able to figure out if something is wrong and if the player should sat for a couple of days or put on the DL.
Thurston24 - February 20, 2012 via Android app
The training staff DID catch all those things though.
And have taken care of (hopefully) all of them as well. Only so much you can do for someone who insists they’re fine.
Terminator X - February 20, 2012
"Read the bottom line"
“Uh, Oh, Uh, EEE, R, Y, UHh?”
“You need glasses.”
You cannot insist you read the line just fine.
philosofool - February 24, 2012
You really don't think Smoak will slug .550 or OBP .400?
For whatever reason I think one or the other should be possible. He’s young, he should improve from last year’s healthy time given that he’s only 24, and we’ve seen flashes of absolute monstrosity from him. Do you think that your opinion of his performance going forward has gone down since last year? (I was going to say I think he develops into a nice Jay Buhner type hitter but then I looked and saw Buhner only slugged over .550 once and only got to .393 OBP.)
Dewey N - February 20, 2012
From my completely amateur viewpoint
One of the things I thought while watching Smoak while he was succeeding was that he was just slightly getting under pitches too much. He was mashing regardless but even while he was it seemed like he could’ve squared up on pitches even better than he was with some small adjustments, and if he did you’d probably see his power really show itself. Maybe I imagined it though.
OlSalty - February 20, 2012
7 players OBP .400+, 10 players SLG .550+ last year
In the entire MLB.
Is it possible Smoak turns into a top 10 hitter? Yes. But the .400 OBP players have 15% BB% with .300+ BAs, and the .550 SLGers have .250+ ISOs with .300+ BAs.
The common theme is .300 BA, which is going to be hard for Smoak unless he gets lucky on BABIP or cuts the Ks down. He did show the flashes of potential 15% BB% and .250+ ISO, but his K% is still too high even with those tools. He’ll need to cut the K% down 4-5% along with 15% BB% and .250+ ISO to get there – possible, but not likely.
valencia - February 20, 2012
For what it's worth...
A .400 OBP with a sub-300 average is rarer than the over-300 .400OBP, but several very hitters have done it in the last several years, including Thome, A-rod, Burrell, Fielder, and Cust. Dunn scratched the mark with a .260/.398 one season.
He’s not likely to reach either .400 OBP or .550 SLG, but I think a .270/.370/.500 season is not out of the question.
But let’s dream about a world in which he cuts the Ks to 16%…
philosofool - February 24, 2012
Fuckin spring, man
I continue to think that Smoak will be worth 2-3 wins as well, but seriously…
Smoak’s 2011 might tell us that he’ll be awesome in 2012 if he stays healthy. But it also tells us that he’s less likely to stay healthy in 2012, and therefore, less likely to be awesome.
jose luis - February 20, 2012
Does it?
I mean its not like he tore his ACL running the bases or something, I think most body parts break when a ball hits them.
wetzelcoal - February 20, 2012
Those thumb injuries don't seem likely to happen again.
It’s not like having overly tight hamstrings for instance.
ignacio - February 20, 2012
Also pretty sure his dad won't die again
seattlebruin - February 21, 2012
We thought similar things about Jose Lopez, and boy did we have egg on our face.
joof - February 21, 2012
I'm looking forward to the SmAckTero era.
Bring on the runs…(that doesn’t sound right).
RunDMD - February 20, 2012
Agreed,
but it does sound a bit disturbing.
Bart's Evil Twin - February 20, 2012
So reluctant to buy the injury excuses
…but these two seem so legit.
And yet, was I really dumb enough to buy less legit ones in the past when I let myself buy into these kinds of excuses?
On the one hand, I hope I was dumber back then and that smarter me now knows better.
On the other hand, I’m buying these excuses despite something inside me telling me not to.
Skepticalish kinda.
Fuck it, they’re both gonna mash in 2012.
FWBrodie - February 20, 2012
Smoak was hitting .315/.413/.576 at May 6, 2012
Just imagine if he put up those numbers after a full season this year. It’s possible.
Eric Wedge's Mustache - February 20, 2012
2011*
Eric Wedge's Mustache - February 20, 2012
Aw.
I thought you were predicting the future.
quacker27 - February 22, 2012
Yes
abender20 - February 21, 2012
If Smoak can put up an .800-ish OPS and Gutierrez can play merely up to his 2010 form, I'll be ecstatic.
It seems so little to ask that two of our team’s most important acquisitions in recent years play up to their ability, but so many players have just crashed and burned here that it’s become what I expect. An .800-ish OPS from Smoak and 2010 Gutierrez in the same season seems like it would be a miracle, yet it also seems like what we should expect.
I just hope so bad that they play well and that Montero plays well.
Ride the Apocalypse - February 20, 2012
Crushed thumbs? TB?
Tough it out.Don’t be a hero!lemonverbena - February 21, 2012
Excitement
I’m pretty excited to see Ackley, Guti, Montero and Smoak play this year. Those are the 4 players i’m most jazzed about for 2012. If Guti is truly back to 2009 form – holy crap that would be awesome.
I tend to agree with Jeff on Carp. I’m not sure what to make of him. I haven’t really bought into him yet. I hope he proves me wrong and is a solid hitter. I also hope Ichiro bounces back and perhaps Figgins has a year worthy of some part of his contract. But I actually feel like the first four i mentioned have the chance to be very good this season.
BennyGStein - February 21, 2012
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