Lookout Landing

There have been some mightily team-friendly deals signed this winter and the Texas Rangers just added another by buying out all three of Elvis Andrus' arbitration years. I heard about the length of the contract in advance of hearing about the monetary figures, so while I waited for those, I went about constructing what I thought to be a fair value contract and also my guess as to the actual deal about to be leaked.

Based on wide agreement as to Andrus' hitting level and across-the-board praise of his defense, I think three wins (3 WAR) is a fair projection for Andrus going forward and based solely on that and the 40%/60%/80% arbitration guesstimates, pinned a fair market deal for Andrus in the $20-25 million range to buy out all three years. My guess was that the actual figure was going to be nearer $17 million because I knew what the two parties filed for in arbitration ($3.6M from Andrus, $2.65M from the Rangers). I'm not sure why, but first-year arb players constantly seem to be undervalued and that can skew things when being bought out like this.

It appears, based on Ken Rosenthal, that I was still too optimistic and that the contract is going to be for about $15 million, though it will not include any team options, which are usually friendly to the ballclub. This is no Howie Kendrick-level steal for the Rangers, but it's a fine deal for Texas based on Andrus' already established level of play and he showed hints at a relatively improving bat last season.