Earlier Thursday, Ken Rosenthal published a column about how the Mariners ought to move Chone Figgins back to leadoff. This post is not intended as a direct response to what Rosenthal wrote, since I've heard the idea from a number of people, but there will necessarily be some overlap.
Chone Figgins has a bad contract. At first, it was not a bad contract. Or maybe it has always been a bad contract, but at first, we didn't believe that it was a bad contract. Figgins looked like a useful and valuable player to have. Then he became Chone Figgins as we understand him today. The Chone Figgins with a bad contract.
The Mariners are not alone in having a bad contract. Without checking, I'm going to assume that every team in baseball has at least one bad contract. Not all bad contracts are created the same, and Figgins' contract is worse than some other bad contracts. But it's also better than some other bad contracts. Hey there, Vernon Wells, won't you please stay a while? I would like to discuss your bad contract. Or as you call it, your super awesome unbelievably amazing contract.
Figgins, needless to say, has not turned out. When you have a player in Figgins' position, there are people who think the team should just cut its losses and eat the rest of the contract. There are other people who are okay with keeping the player around, but know that his best days are behind him. And there are still other people who insist on the possibility of a revival.
A player with a bad contract was given a big contract for a reason, right? Who's to say players can't rebound?
You and I probably figure that Chone Figgins is a lost cause, and that his greatest hope now is becoming a utility guy of moderate use. But something I've heard from several people, most recently Rosenthal, is that Figgins might bounce back if he's returned to the leadoff slot, where he hit with the Angels. Chone Figgins is a leadoff guy. The Mariners didn't let him hit leadoff. No wonder he's fallen flat!
It's an appealing concept, because the idea of Figgins being good again would change so many things. I guess it wouldn't change that many things, but it would change at least one thing, and presumably a handful of others. Chone Figgins coming back from the dead would be a miracle, just as anybody coming back from the dead would be a miracle.
But pardon me if I think that sounds a little too simplistic. A little too easy. To assert that Figgins could rebound as the leadoff guy is to assert that this has been a matter of psychology, not tools, and to assert that the difference between batting first and batting second is so great that it made Figgins sufficiently uncomfortable that he became a bad player.
There's no doubt in my mind that Figgins believes he could be better as leadoff. Figgins kind of has to believe that. He has to believe he can be fixed. And the last time he was good, he was leadoff. The two are connected in his mind. To Figgins, the thing that changed between Anaheim and Seattle is his spot in the batting order, so that must have a lot to do with his struggles.
But there are times when I believe in a player's explanation, and there are times when I don't. I want Figgins to be good. I want him to succeed as a Mariner, because of course I do. But I can't bring myself to buy this one.
Look at some of the lines in Rosenthal's article. It's said that batting second presents a different kind of challenge. It's said that batting second behind Ichiro presents a uniquely different kind of challenge. Perhaps Figgins has struggled because he's tried to adapt to that. But:
"It would be great to go back to leadoff and do that again," Figgins said. "If not, I have to change my mindset as a '2' hitter. I haven't really changed my mindset to be a '2' hitter. I've stuck with being a patient hitter."
Figgins hasn't changed his mindset after two years. He's "stuck with" being the hitter that he was. Except in terms of results. The results have been way worse.
So maybe it's sticking with that old approach that's gotten him in trouble? That seems to be the sentiment.
"Being in that spot and understanding that Ichiro is an aggressive player - that's what makes him great - I need to understand that when he is aggressive, I need to be aggressive, too," Figgins said. "A lot of times I get behind in the count too much."
First-pitch Strikes:
2009: 57%
2010: 58%
2011: 57%
Behind 0-1:
2009: 49%
2010: 50%
2011: 50%
Two-strike counts:
2009: 53%
2010: 51%
2011: 51%
In 2009, after getting ahead 1-0, Figgins batted .333. After falling behind 0-1, he batted .259. The last two years, after getting ahead 1-0, Figgins has batted .251. After falling behind 0-1, he's batted .212. This is about more than getting ahead and falling behind. This is about quality of contact.
Something else we can look at - what about when Figgins hasn't been hitting directly behind Ichiro? When leading off an inning in 2009, Figgins batted .275. When leading off an inning over the last two years, Figgins has batted .213. When leading off an inning, Figgins hasn't had to be in the mindset of a No. 2 hitter. It hasn't mattered. He's been bad.
I get uneasy about these things. On this matter, I have one opinion. Baseball people involved, and baseball people not involved, probably have another opinion. A lot of them probably do, at least. And I'm not so confident in myself that I think I know more about how baseball works than they do. If baseball people think that Chone Figgins could bounce back by being returned to the leadoff slot, we can't just ignore that outright.
But color me skeptical. I won't be mad if they try. There's probably not a lot of harm in trying, when Figgins plays. Again, one figures the Mariners aren't even getting within sniffing distance of the playoffs, making this a development and experiment season. Batting Figgins leadoff would be an experiment. But I've done a lot of experiments. Even the ones where I know how they're supposed to work out, they haven't always worked out. If Figgins' problem this whole time has been batting order position, we can learn from that, but chances are it's not that simple. It so infrequently is.
7 recs | 101 comments
What's struck me is that if Figgins were that psychologically unstable that the difference between lead off and 2nd
destroyed him as a hitter, what’s the say the difference between hitting with the Angels and hitting with the Mariners isn’t a cause? Or any of the other probably equally possible changes?
Matthew - February 9, 2012
I don't know about you but I think he's just fucked
Jeff Sullivan - February 9, 2012
You don't know about me, Sullivan.
AND YOU NEVER WILL!
Matthew - February 9, 2012
Maybe if we podcasted more
Jeff Sullivan - February 9, 2012
Well, that is tradition on the wedding night.
The Typical Idiot Fan - February 9, 2012
Have we tried paying him less?
Mayo - February 9, 2012
Well, we're not competing this year, so
let’s move the team to Anaheim, change the name to the Angels, and acquire every player and coach from the 2009 Angels team. It’s worth a shot.
MangoLiger - February 9, 2012
That is absolutely the worst idea I have ever heard
Corco - February 10, 2012
I think that all highway signs should be written in Copperplate.
Mariner John - February 10, 2012
That would at least have amusement value
Corco - February 10, 2012
If he's that fragile then the odds of fixing him are quite low no matter what you do with him.
It’d be so refreshing to hear him accept blame for his poor play, go about watching film and working with coaches to fix it, and then making some statement regarding his dedication to the team. When guys start playing poorly and blame everything else, I start suspecting that they never really knew what made them successful in the first place and aren’t likely to recapture the combination of so many factors that clicked previously.
abender20 - February 9, 2012
I am the type of player, for any game / sport, where I tend to play better surrounded by lesser talent, and play worse around better talent.
Psychologically what made me successful was knowing that I am better than the players around me. It was easy for me to be confident in that situation. Surrounded by better talent was tougher for me because I felt like I there was more pressure to be better than my peers. Even though, as I type this is seems like it should be the other way around.
Maybe Figgins is the opposite. Or maybe they should sign me to play some 3B.
d0nkey - February 10, 2012
It sure seems to be the mainstream radio mindset, that his not leading off at the very start of the game just ruint him.
msb - February 9, 2012
I'm not normally in tune w/sports radio-listening M's fans, but I find it
incredible that a sizeable segment of M’s fans now think the biggest problem with Figgins was that he simply didn’t get enough at-bats.
Wow.
marc w - February 9, 2012
Same people would dismiss it if you said the same thing about Cust. :(
Patrick Stites - February 9, 2012
Yeah, I don't buy this "move him to lead-off and he'll bounce back" theory for a split second.
Maybe if you haven’t seen him at the plate for the last 2 years, you could trick yourself into believing this. But, some things cannot be unseen.
sanford_and_son - February 9, 2012
I wish the solution were that simple...
But I just don’t buy it either. It would be really great if that fixed him but I don’t think it will work.
ShipstadPilot11 - February 9, 2012
Truth.
Figgins was more painful to watch than Peguero.
Fearless Frog - February 9, 2012 via mobile
So what affected Ichiro!'s psychology last year? I mean, he hit lead off.
If it’s all just position in the lineup, what the fuck?
harkening - February 9, 2012
Maybe he has Seasonal Affective Disorder?
Meh?
Nicholas Placentia Minnott - February 9, 2012
Off topic but why is your signature also your login?
hcoguy - February 9, 2012
Because
‘Log in with Facebook’
Nicholas Placentia Minnott - February 10, 2012 via Android app
As someone who logs in with Facebook
This makes no sense to me.
GasolineSnuggie - February 10, 2012
Yeah, didn't happen to me for the brief period I was using that, either.
Aussie Mariner - February 10, 2012
Is it really so long?
Maybe he changed it but it’s just his name which seems redundant.
LeftArrow2 - February 10, 2012
Also like he had in Anaheim, maybe we can move him to a different position every day - the occasional 2B, 3B, SS, LF - whatever works.
Because that’s psychologically different than a steady position, too.
harkening - February 9, 2012
I don't know man.
Most of my worst Figgins memories were when they DID put a bat in his hand.
TheBishop - February 9, 2012
Probably too late now
But no harm in trying. Bill James told Baker before the 2010 season that the best thing to do with Figgins was give him a position and leave him there. The M’s did the exact opposite, moving him to 2nd base and batting him second. Combine that with leaving your comfort team, and you can really mess with a player’s comfort level. When that guy that pcompetes with the elite in his field, you can really exacerbate the situation.. These guys aren’t chess pieces.
Mr.Phelps - February 9, 2012
The "risk" in batting Figgins first is that it gives him the most at bats possible.
That doesn’t seem like a very good idea.
Easley - February 9, 2012
Good point.
daveinny - February 9, 2012
No problem if he produces,
if not he gets bounced after a fair trial.
xmet - February 9, 2012
What's a fair trial?
Matthew - February 9, 2012
Good question.
And another – What is the criteria for success?
I was trying to address the issue of most at bats, not promote a trial, which may or may not be worthwhile.
xmet - February 9, 2012
But I tend to agree with
n8tron3030’s dissertation on turnip blood below.
xmet - February 9, 2012
The last two seasons?
abender20 - February 9, 2012
One where we don't start with the rope
phiat - February 10, 2012
These guys are chess pieces.
Meant to get the Mariners wins. Wins, dammit.
harkening - February 9, 2012
What would Bill James know about it?
Matthew - February 9, 2012
It was a Bosox brain trust observation
Something they determined through extensive scouting and study, iirc.
Mr.Phelps - February 9, 2012
Do you think SheaWasBettor21 felt a disturbance in the force when this was posted?
C Dubya - February 9, 2012
Who?
Aaron Campeau - February 9, 2012
If he leads off, I don't know if I'd be more upset that he fails this year
Or more upset if he succeeds because it likely had nothing to do with leading off and all of the dingi that have been promoting that idea for years will feel vindicated.
CapSea - February 9, 2012
I don't really buy it either
but a Figgins miracle would be so refreshing this year!
Eric Wedge's Mustache - February 9, 2012
Well, the thing about it is, why the hell not?
What have we really got to lose? Wouldn’t it be better to eliminate that as a reason for his decline? If it fails then we can all pat each other on the back for being right all along that he’s just a super sucky player, but if it does work, then yay, we have a real leadoff hitter. If he sucks then we’re right back where we started, but if he succeeds than we’ve made a significant step forward. So I say go for it. See if we can squeeze some blood out of this turnip.
n8tron3030 - February 9, 2012
Because by leading off we would have to see him more often.
And he has a history of making eyeballs bleed.
stredarts - February 9, 2012
I thought we aleady wasted one year trying for the big Figgin's revival?
And I think that Chone was overvalued in his Angel years, for being productive in a lineup stacked with scarier hitters.
What is more surprising to me is how Ichiro managed to score 100+ runs from 2004~2009 with some of the worst gawdawful lineups hitting behind him.
daveinny - February 9, 2012
Or Figgin's problem may be a different kind of attitude problem (not the leadoff blah blah thing)
Figgins may have just fell into an entitlement rut after snagging the huge contract, in contrast to being a hungry overachiever all his Angel years.
He sure has seemed arrogant as a Mariner despite his bad performance.
daveinny - February 9, 2012
*Figgins
His name is not a possessive noun!
pdb - February 10, 2012
Perhaps...
he’s using the apostrophe to shorten it from Figgings…
JY - February 11, 2012
The Mariners haven't always had a super shitty lineup.
If I remember correctly the 07 team was at last decent for am offense, they just couldn’t pitch much. It has just been the last two years that we have sucked hard on offense.
Kirk - February 9, 2012 via mobile
It's true that the last two years have been bad, actually Historically bad,
but the other seasons were pretty feeble also. I agree that compared to the other shitty years 2007 was OK.
daveinny - February 10, 2012
Yeah, shouldn't work, but...
if there were baseball players with the psychological makeup such that this would be important, I would totally believe that Figgins was one of them. For some reason, that’s just the read I get.
We’re already supposed to believe that which position he played made a difference.
HailStanfordHail - February 9, 2012
This could very well be the case.
It’s easy to dismiss that which we cannot accurately measure, but knowing that everyone reacts differently to various stimuli, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that there are players out there, such as Figgins, who place so high a value on their spot in the line-up that they let it affect their play.
Or maybe he just got old.
Omerta - February 9, 2012
One minor, irrational reason I don't want Chone to succeed at leadoff is that it helps revive the "Ichiro is selfish" meme.
All the Ichiro haters would have one more reason to say “see? if Ichiro had just gotten out of the way Chone would have been useful, but he and Yamauchi blah blah blah”.
Moreover, if Figgins isn’t going away, I’d like him to be useful just so we don’t have to hear about how much he’s “battling”.
Chris_FB - February 9, 2012
You can say that again.
I suspect that Baker is pounding this drum for just that reason.
daveinny - February 10, 2012
Can we start one of those mob things with pitchforks and torches if Figgins gets a start as a leadoff hitter?
Edgar for Pres - February 9, 2012
I'm not sure I could work up my ire enough to even put Figgins on the same plane as
the Beast.
harkening - February 9, 2012
What none of us have realized is how amazing Chone Figgins is as a Cleanup hitter.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=figgich01&year=Career&t=b
ICANHIT - February 9, 2012
Holy shit, that stat line is just full of contradictions!
Zewerr - February 9, 2012
They might want to hang onto him for when the Astros come to the AL West as well
1.428 OPS!
Craptastic-J - February 10, 2012
Batting 6th
PA: 1
RS: 2
What?
MT Olson - February 10, 2012
Pinch running for the 6th hitter
ubelmann - February 10, 2012
And that goes in a batting order stat?
Weird.
MT Olson - February 10, 2012
We should just try winning all of our games in order to get better batting numbers from him.
What I really wonder is if we could find a batter who systematically hits worse in wins than in losses.
expatbayern - February 20, 2012
I always thought
That Chone Figgins’ failures had to do with being stabbed by a double edged sword. That sword being first what you had outlined in your article. The second was his position change. From my experience, little as it is, and from what I remember changing positions takes a hit on your batting as you spend more and more time concentrating on fielding.
qwertyiopasdfghjklzxcvbnm - February 9, 2012
I have to ask, what happened to "u"?
the other side - February 9, 2012
No chatspeak
Matt Erickson - February 10, 2012
Do we have to have this question
Every time qwertyiopasdfghjklzxcvbnm posts?
Or is this some running joke I’m missing out on?
J0SER - February 10, 2012
I have to ask, what happened to "O"?
Chris_FB - February 10, 2012
O's are for suckers
d0nkey - February 10, 2012
I missed that.
A quality fanpost if I’ve ever seen one.
the other side - February 10, 2012
So, the one other time?
Matthew - February 10, 2012
Because...
There is no “U” in me alphabet. I would change it if I knew how to. I’m getting sick of being asked this question.
qwertyiopasdfghjklzxcvbnm - February 14, 2012
The guy was a super utility for most of his time with the Angeles.
Having to play only one position is something he’s apparently said he doesn’t like. So yeah, I think you are wrong.
stredarts - February 10, 2012
Thanks for pointing out my wrongness.
qwertyiopasdfghjklzxcvbnm - February 14, 2012
They should try hypnosis.
wazzu93 - February 9, 2012
Maybe Chone should have picked #1 instead of #9 if he wanted to bat lead off.
Mariner John - February 9, 2012
I am rooting for Chone to do a Washburn
Electrifying for the last bit of contractyness. Maybe develop a special grounder that loops over the shortstop he can call a ‘roadrunner’ or something. If putting him leadoff and changing his position ala bloomquist makes him remember to be useful I am all for it. I doubt he gets full leadoff bats since he will likely be replaced later in games for defensive or power needs.
Whoopetydoo - February 9, 2012
While Vernon Wells does have a bad contract...
at least he occasionally does interesting things, like hitting an odd home run. A Chone Figgins at bat usually ends up with a weak dribbling grounder or a soul-crushing strikeout.
Fearless Frog - February 9, 2012 via mobile
.
Not so fast
Keenan Williams - February 9, 2012
I liked Felix's "what." face in the middle of that.
Two Rs and Two Ls - February 10, 2012
Figgins is a bargain
compared to Wells.
xmet - February 10, 2012
"Reviving" made me think of Pokemon
and now I can’t stop picturing Figgins as Diglett.
WhyGodWhy - February 10, 2012
Figlet
Chris_FB - February 10, 2012
And now I get to post this again
Eyeball Kid - February 10, 2012
I guess technically it could be slightly harder to get an infield hit when batting second compared to leading off
If there’s someone on base ahead of you that probably increases the chance of a fielders choice resulting from what might’ve been an IFH otherwise.
But when you look at Figgins IFH% it’s not really different than it was when he was leading off so that doesn’t even begin to explain what happened. He’s just been awful and it’s mostly explained by his GB% and IFF% and falling LD% that all tell the story of him not making contact as well as he used to.
OlSalty - February 10, 2012
His hip problem could be a factor,
if it was and it’s not completely cured I don’t see how any change will help him.
xmet - February 10, 2012
I really don't understand this.
If anyone else, for the most part, does crappy at work they either lose their job or their responsibility is down graded.
InSpokane - February 10, 2012
My company doesn't have that much treasure invested in me
Not to attack you specifically, but I disagree with comparing professional athletes to some schlub in some regular job (like myself). If my company had a significant amount of their operating costs sunk into me whether I perform or not, it’s in their best interest to see if they can fix me back to where I contribute at the level I’m being paid. Hell, my company, even with it’s smaller investment in me, will do the same before they just cut me loose.
Anyway, I think some professions, including entertainers are just different, because the circumstances are so different. And I also think that in reality, the expectations on pro athletes in terms of their performance is really high, and, contract issues aside, they are much more of a meritocracy than most other jobs. They’d be cut far earlier than I would be in my job.
phiat - February 10, 2012
I see your point, but it's not just "trying to fix him," it's giving him a promotion.
I mean, you’re giving the worst hitter on the team the MOST number of ABs of anyone on the team. That just insanity. He had an OPS+ of 39 last year. His slugging % was lower than his OBP, and his OBP was .241.
He was arguably the worst full-timer in the league. His OPS+ is the same as Cliff Lee’s and Clayton Kershaw’s. The only other MLBer with REMOTELY as many PAs and that low of an OPS+ is Jeff Mathis, a catcher, who had 32 fewer PAs..
It’s in their best interests to fix him, sure, but it just seems outrageous to give him more plate appearances.
HititHere - February 10, 2012
Thanks. I was going to say something like that, but with out numbers.
InSpokane - February 10, 2012
I don't even understand why a hitter would say something like this
Granted, I am not a professional baseball coach, but it seems like you would never tell hitters to have a “2 hitter” mentality or a “leadoff” mentality, or whatever. You would look at each hitter, analyze his strengths and weaknesses, and come up with an approach for him depending on the game situation. Some hitters are going to want to be really patient with a runner on first base (maybe give the baserunner a chance to steal), some have enough power to want to drive him in from first base, maybe the score/inning changes how you approach the situation (the next run will win the game), etc. And sure, a leadoff hitter will come to bat more often with no runners on base than a cleanup hitter, but sometimes the leadoff hitter is going to be up with the bases loaded.
ubelmann - February 10, 2012
Joe Posanski says...
And I quote:
The full article is worth reading, but the point is plain: players who get significantly better one season to the next once they cross into their 30s are the exception rather than the rule.
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/aging-with-chart.html
My opinion: the leadoff spot has to be earned, and should go to someone who has a decent on-base percentage. Figgins’ OBP in 2011 was a craptastic .241 — are we seriously discussing the idea of the leadoff hitter being a guy who gets on base less than one time in four?
MMonkman - February 10, 2012
Joe Posnanski is great for a reason.
abender20 - February 10, 2012
In my humble opinion,
Ackley should be be our leadoff hitter next season and for the next 10 seasons.
appleshampoo - February 10, 2012
I don't care if Figgins gets "significantly better" than he has been before.
I just want him to perform to his pre-Mariner levels, even his shitty pre-Mariner levels. That’s not improvement so much as getting back to his averages.
The Typical Idiot Fan - February 11, 2012
Wow I agree completely.
I’m surprised there isn’t more outrage about this.
Fearless Frog - February 11, 2012 via mobile
Where To Move Figgins
The top of the Space Needle. He can tell us if the British are coming.
SandlotSam - February 10, 2012
Or if there's a thunderstorm happening
Zap.
HititHere - February 10, 2012
So this is fun
Who had the most success in the lead-off spot last season? Yay small sample sizes (and a glum reminder of another, departed player, now reduced to a trivia question)
J0SER - February 11, 2012
He had a double and we won
Let him lead-off forever.
GasolineSnuggie - February 11, 2012
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