Say Kevin Millwood (because we pretty much all hope it'd be Millwood, right?) has a mild injury or is traded or something. The motive isn't important. You, as GM in this fantastical reality, have to replace him in the starting rotation. Your only concern is which pitcher would perform the best right now. Ignore service time and all other non-performance-based factors. Whom do you pick?
That's a dumb question. Justin Smoak plays first! And when he's unavailable, somebody else plays first, like, I don't know, Alex Liddi, or Kyle Seager. For the Seattle Mariners. For the Texas Rangers, Mitch Moreland plays first. For the Chicago Cubs, Jeff Baker and Bryan LaHair play first. Bryan LaHair plays first for the Chicago Cubs.
But this isn't actually about first base, because that question's already settled, for now. This is about something else. Last November, towards the beginning of the offseason, Jack Zduriencik traded Josh Lueke and apparently a PTBNL or cash to the Rays in exchange for John Jaso. Jaso was 28 and he was coming off an ugly season, but he was a not-old catcher with a .340 OBP in nearly 700 Major League plate appearances. He looked like a good get for a talented reliever with what we might charitably label as "character issues".
Jaso has yet to play in 2012. He's buried behind not only Miguel Olivo, but also Jesus Montero, who was acquired much later in the offseason and who the Mariners still think of as a catcher, even though he keeps starting at DH. Montero isn't the issue. We want Montero to catch. Montero could have a lot of value as a catcher. Olivo is more the issue. Miguel Olivo is very nice and I'm sure that pitchers like working with him, and it's not like he has literally zero skills, but Olivo has arguably the worst batting approach in the league and he blocks pitches in the dirt like he thinks the balls are full of goo and he doesn't want to get any on him. I think we'd all like to see Olivo catch a little less.
Later in the offseason, Jack Zduriencik addressed the pitching staff by signing Japanese righty Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma was coming off a season interrupted by shoulder weakness, for which he didn't receive anything in the way of significant treatment, which greatly lowered his price. But he had a good track record and just the offseason before was seeking a lot of money, so he looked like a good get for a low base salary with incentives. He looked like a #3 or #4 starter, and he said that his shoulder felt fine.
Iwakuma has yet to play in 2012. Initially we figured he'd making the starting rotation out of camp, but then Blake Beavan took his job, and the team kept Erasmo Ramirez around to fill a similar role in the bullpen. Iwakuma is active. He is not on the disabled list, which you might have figured, understandably. He's just doing his best Jeff Gray impression at the moment. Or Eric Wedge is doing his best Eric Wedge impression at the moment. It's not like it was up to Jeff Gray to not pitch. I think. Incidentally, Jeff Gray made the 2012 Twins, and has already made two appearances. The Mariners claimed Jeff Gray last May 13. He made his second appearance on May 29. (He made his third appearance on June 11, and his fourth appearance on July 9. Holy god damn. How are we not still hung up on this?)
So the question is: who's going to get into a Mariners game first? Will it be John Jaso, or will it be Hisashi Iwakuma? It doesn't count if Iwakuma warms up in the bullpen and then doesn't enter, although maybe it should. The vibe I get is that neither is an Eric Wedge favorite, presumably because of spring training, where Jaso wasn't awesome and Iwakuma wasn't awesome. But one shouldn't expect Jaso to be awesome, and Iwakuma threw 90 while recording 11 strikeouts and three walks. Neither was a spring training disaster, on the surface, and they're both on the roster, right now.
Your best guess! This is serious!
People were not optimistic last season. This year there's a new wrinkle! And next year there'll be another one yet.
Thanks to the size and rotational speed of this planet of ours, I had the great fortune of having to "wake up" (in quotes because I don't consider myself having actually gone to sleep) at 1am this morning in order to watch the Winter X Games Europe in France and think about my next trip to slopes somewhere. It was roughly two hours into that joy that I noticed it was 3am, Wednesday, exactly 14 days before Chone Figgins, presumably, stepped into the batter's box in Tokyo to watch the 2012 season begin.
I think before this morning that I had dealt with that oncoming start time in more of an abstract manner. I'm resilient, I thought to myself. Plus, thanks to the rigors of an engineering degree and the delirious pace I adopt while traveling, I have an established history of surviving on very little sleep over periods up to a week or so. I'll handle 3am twice no problem, I figured.
The obvious sitcom plot crutch would be that I totally bonked out at 3am and just now woke up or that I've been intaking coffee via IV. Neither of those happened. I try to avoid caffeine and, despite not being able to suppress constant yawns, I have handled it fine so far. But I can feel the effects (I hope this post is making sense) and frankly, 3am is just really damn early and makes me wonder how many others are willing to put up with that inconvenience in order to watch a Mariners game.
For a night owl like myself, 3am is almost the perfect middle point between trying to stave off going to sleep or trying to hit the proverbial hay early and hope that my body doesn't flat out reject the alarm in the morning. I'm still not sure which I'll choose come the 28th, but for now, what are your thoughts or plans?
This will probably not turn out to be interesting since it is being posted on (nominally) a baseball blog, but I am curious.
Jeff Cirillo was a Mariner in 2002 and 2003. The Mariners gave up some talent to get him, and also paid him good money. He posted a 64 OPS+. The three years before, he posted a 106 OPS+. Over the remainder of his career, he posted a 93 OPS+. His Baseball-Reference WAR was -0.3. His FanGraphs WAR was 0.9.
Scott Spiezio was a Mariner in 2004 and 2005. The Mariners paid him good money. He posted a 57 OPS+. The three years before, he posted a 106 OPS+. Over the remainder of his career, he posted a 108 OPS+. His Baseball-Reference WAR was -0.4. His FanGraphs WAR was -0.8.
The Seattle Mariners might be done making impactful moves to the Major League roster this winter. The Seattle Mariners off season so far.
Released: David Aardsma, Dan Cortes
Lost: Jeff Gray
Traded: Michael Pineda, Jose Campos, Josh Lueke
Signed: Darren Ford, Matt Fox, Steve Garrison, Chris Gimenez, Jarrett Grube, Aaron Heilman, Sean Henn, Hisashi Iwakuma, Josh Kinney, Jeff Marquez, Kevin Millwood, Scott Patterson, Oliver Perez, Guillermo Quiroz, Luis Rodriguez, George Sherrill, Phillippe Valiquette, Munenori Kawakasi
Traded For: Jesus Montero, Hector Noesi, John Jaso
Now obviously, many or all of us who are Mariner fans would have liked the winter to have gone better. I wish the Yankees had accepted Jason Vargas instead of Michael Pineda. I wish I didn't have a cold right now. I wish some asshole or group of assholes were not shooting sea lions.
Those are among things that I wish. However, that all three have occurred does not mean I am discontent with how things are. Except for that sea lion one because seriously, I hope whoever is doing that gets flayed. But I am fine with the Michael Pineda trade because I think it's within the realm of fair value and I am okay with my current cold because I probably only have it due to a week spent in snowy and fun Colorado. Being satisfied does not mean that you cannot envision better or did not wish for better. It means that circumstances are, on balance, roughly agreeable.
Given all that important preamble, judging against the baselines of your expectations at the conclusion of the 2011 regular season, how do you feel about the Mariners' off season so far?
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